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New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
New Zealand V South Africa 3rd Test Hamilton
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i dont know why i mentioned Friday it doesnt start until Saturday !
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Draw on the move again
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lol, i do it nearly every test match. Funnily enough it has strengthened my confidence in the draw.
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keep nibbling that draw down to around 11/10 pls.........
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Saturday now within the meteorologists' forecast (not computer-generated) and still showing 'rain becoming persistent'.
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Thats old news zolas_heel... thats why the draw was 2.78 this morning and is now 2.58 I think. But you are correct.
What other weather forecast sites are others using and are they reliable? |
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I have a friend who is a senior forecaster at the metservice and he says that other forecasts are either computer generated or second hand from the metservice anyway.
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Not old news at all, Tyco, old man. The forecast was showing days 1-4 only forecasted by meteorologists until 11.32 NZ time, when the update happened and it became days 1-5. Unless you're thinking 10 minutes ago is old news.
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I was thinking 2 hours ago as being old new... indeed :)
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Hmmm sorry I will take that back, you are correct, I saw the Saturday forecast this morning in the 5 day so assumed...... but yes it had not been updated...
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As far as I can see, the NZ meteorologists forecast a five day period (current plus four) during the working day. When midnight rolls us into a new day this becomes current plus three until they update again, around 11:00 NZ time. I'm guessing, on the basis of a few observations only.
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I know the NZ Met run the UK Met's global model, and all the models are much of a muchness anyway. The meteorologists may add info from local knowledge, but probably not that much, most of the time. The UK Met also runs a model that forecasts 3 days out with higher resolution and I suspect the NZ Met does as well. Which makes the 3 day forecast most useful for our purposes.
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Two other things to note.
The pitch will not be underprepared. Decent weather up to Friday so no worries about that. NZ have asked for a spinning pitch to negate the SA seamers. After their abject performance last week,I'm not sure it was such a great idea!! |
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Draw has moved into 2.40 now, the forecast for Saturday has been updated to persistent rain setting in....
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2.32 now Tuesday afternoon in NZ. Are ppl finally looking at the forecast or reading the forum and getting on the train?
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Dangerous to jump on the train, when we don't know what times it will rain. I got on early, probably before jucel, so I am safe.
Tyco, NZ weather in Perth today, cold, wet and windy.  |
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i got on the draw at 2.74,can never be sure about the weather but the forecast is awful and is def worth the risk.
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Sorry.. my train post was tounge in cheek. I know things can change quickly especially from so far out... my initial post on this forum will state that. No train by any means but at this stage Saturday (day 1) is a goner and if that stays like that and the other 4 days look dodgy then this draw will go lower. Have layed some off but going to get back on if it climbs above 2.70 again.
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FWIIW, I currently think Saturday will just be showers or some intermittent rain till evening. Might get quite a few overs in. Although, if we don't, choo choo.
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my back on the draw has nothing to do with the cricket pitch or the two sides just the forecast and if wrong will have to take, hopefully just a small loss.
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If the forecast is the same as it is now on Thursday I reckon we will be down to 1.5ish.
Could lose in excess of 150 overs in the first 3 days. |
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Thats right Jucel, it would be close to 1.50 and there is no way SA will try and contrive a result which NZ would obviously try to do. So you need to work out what the risk/reward ratio is. If the forecast changes to having 3-4 fine days then the draw could be out to 4's. Weather just coming up on the tv now so will see what it says. Weekend Tasman low coming up but the question is will it arrive and arrive as they forecast it will. At this stage Sat Sun Mon not looking too good.
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All the cricketing knowledge on here and the forum has 1000s on a weather forecast.
. God I love a weather play.! |
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That draw is fair moving... down to 2.22 now.
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coming in a treat now!!
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and keeps going to 2.12 :)
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Hoping to lay a little off at 2s then get back on a bounce up.
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Funny when the cricketing expert become the weather experts. In Tyco we trust !!!!
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No seriously do not trust in me here. I do not talk to my mate that often about this and I myself have limited knowledge of weather and forecasting. In my humble opinion, pxb and jucel probably know more about weather forecasting etc :) But its starting to become tempting to go to Hamilton for the game.
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(my mate who works at metservice.com that is)
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going the other way in a hurry now. Back out to 2.50
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Fatslogger i am taking the same approach , 3K on draw now ill keep this on till the first interruption kick in
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I think we are all in the same boat. The forecast has not changed one bit in the last 3 days. Draw coming in again now.
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A load of market fluctuation down to my lays at 2.1 and 2 so I can take more draw on higher up again would suit me very nicely but I'm convinced enough that this test will be heavily rain affected that I'll be aiming to keep a big result red in play in the run up. I generally try not to take a really committed position early in a test, let alone more than 3 days from its start but this is one of the exceptions. I sometimes do similar with really long draw odds and go in comedy green because the upside is so large.
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Well i got my back down to my predicted 11/10 lay...
Very happy indeed. Will be back on the draw before you can say 'Saffer have not left the hotel yet'................ |
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If it drifts out to 2.6 again I am going in again.
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