Cricket
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Current forecast is for rain, rain and more rain.
First four days look horrific.
First four days look horrific.
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Im taking that with a grain of salt so far. The NZ 10 day forecast always has rain in it and is so unreliable its not funny. Anyone offer me sub 2's on the draw and I will be laying it with my house.
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The rain is partially confirmed by other forecasts, but NZ is like the UK and forecasts 5 or 6 days out are unreliable as Tyco says.
I did some hoovering of early prices and now a case of keeping an eye on the forecast. |
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i feel like i need to get involved with this rain play but i dont want to make a huge mistake, perhaps a medium sized lay of SA is the way forward.
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If we get a result in 3 (full) days of play, which isn't uncommon in Hamilton, I'd expect it too be a SAF win.
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yes, i agree with that but if the forecast is wrong it would be easier for me to get out of a SA lay without much damage.
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Had a lucky escape from leaving a big draw lay up around 4 at a point when the forecast looked good. Checked a different forecast with NZ Met just in time, although agree that it's very unreliable indeed this far out. May just wait now, with a few pounds of draw lay I got taken.
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ive layed SA at 2.36, that will do for now, if the forecast is wrong i will just red out for a loss and then look to claw it back.
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Taylor out, Boult might be in. NZ have same squad as for Wellington test. Does not bode too well for NZ. Batting will look just as fragile.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/90610342/ross-taylor-ruled-out-of-third-test-trent-boult-likely-to-return-as-black-caps-name-unchanged-squad-for-hamilton |
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If the forecast stays the same and comes to fruition, it's a straight 1.01 train & I want to be on board.
Worth the risk imo |
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If the forecast stays the same and comes to fruition, it's a straight 1.01 train & I want to be on board.
Worth the risk imo That's my view as well. If the forecast improves, I'll just have to scramble, but I have done well in recent weeks. I'm a bit surprised the draw is holding at 2.7. |
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A matter of watching the forecast and acting accordingly. I might have a nibble at the high 2's after all and like pxb says... scramble if needed. Again it is worthy to note NZ 5 days and over is unreliable as a European poll.
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from the metservice: Forecasts and temperatures for days 1-5 are produced by MetService meteorologists. Forecasts and temperatures for days 6-10 are automatically generated by MetService's computer weather modelling system.
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Just been updated, still looks the same
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Draw on the move
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All of a sudden 10k comes in to stop the freefall
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Someone thinks the forecast is wrong.
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I think the forecast is wrong, but not by enough to produce a result probably.
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still rain forecast for all 5 days on metservice
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I've stuck a load down at 2.6, twice. If it's overcast and swingy but no rain on day 1 we could see a lot of wickets and a very high draw price (Hobart Aus SA test being a recent example of not nearly rain affected enough to stop a result test) so could be regrettable getting on now but think it's worth the risk.
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Starting with a lay of Saffers , yes they won it on a canter but not before NZ had them in all sorts of trouble. Little scared to lay draw with that weather forecast.
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Im a little surprised at the price action. Woke up to see the rain on Saturday confirmed and the next 4 days looking just as bleak. So to see the draw higher than 2.60 is interesting in itself. For me the closer to the test and the current forecast is confirmed then the draw should come in. Time to nibble again and back the draw.
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A lot will depend on how wet Saturday is. I currently think we will get some rain, but wouldn't like to say how much. Significant rain and the forecast for Sunday and Monday staying wet, draw will go very short. We would have to see quite an improvement in the forecast all 3 days for the draw to roar out. But I've seen NZ forecasts go from wet all day to dry all day the night before, and took a major bath in a Test at Hamilton or Auckland (I forget which) when that happened.
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I'm amazed the draw is'nt lower TBH, ive got more on the draw now as well, i'm up to the point where it will be complete panic stations if the forecast is wrong. there is obviously a lot of people who dont trust the forecast
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gee you are up early there pxb. I know what you mean about the forecasts. Anything more than 5 days out I do not trust here. That is why for me when things get confirmed within the 5 day time frame it gives some comfort. That said, even within the 5 days NZ forecasts are notoriously dodgy.
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gee you are up early there pxb.
Betting on Test matches will give you odd sleeping patterns. |
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I know what you mean. I do all nighters with the French open and Wimbledon. 2 weeks in a row and a wreck afterwards.
I am tempted to go to Hamilton for this test with all the water around and in the forecast but other commitments may thwart that. On the draw initially and will see where it goes. I am comfortable on the draw at this stage. ANy hint of water around and the draw should fail to go above 5 initially anyway. So its the risk/reward I like in this trade. |
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Just checked the last 5 games at the ground.
Only 4 scores of 300+. Fast bowlers taking wickets(except a Narine 6fer). With overcast conditions, shouldn't the bowlers get even more help? Only 1 of those 5 tests got to day 5, because of rain. Should have been a draw(hit 1.1) but it was Pakistan batting last. 2 games ended on day 3 and 2 on day 4. |
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The WI one though could have easily been a draw, but as the WI are bound to do they collapsed like a sack of empty potatoes.
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most of those games involved a 2nd innings collapse, the first innings scores were decent enough. As long as we dont get something silly like 15 wickets on the first day and that big block of rain hits the draw will go very low, surely !?
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Tyco, do you know what the drainage is like at Hamilton?
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Hi pxb, not off the top of my head no, but I do think its pretty good. Nothing springs out that its not good if that makes sense.
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looks like they had an upgrade in 2005 to fix drainage issues: http://www.seddonpark.com/47/about/history/upgrades-at-seddon-park
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Thanks. I've been killed a couple of times this year by wet outfields. Not that I anticipate going red on the draw.
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Wasnt it Hamilton recently which was deemed not fit for test?
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It was Napier where a match was abandoned due a wet outfield. An ODI I recall.
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Saturday looking overcast, but not too wet. But Wednesday now looking pretty wet. But a long way off.
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Possible 3 days of wash out with the current forecast but still far off ..
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it depends which website you look at PXB , metservice has showers on friday afternoon and rain saturday, sunday and monday.
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