New Zealand v South Africa - 1st Test at Dunedin

Winviz says draw 78%, and that won't be taking the forecast rain into account.

cheers pxb.. that is interesting in itself...

They say SAF gets 366 this innings. 266 will be more than enough for the draw (if the forecast doesn't change).

is this info free pxb? had a look at the site but seems you need to download to a phone app?

It's free, and runs on an ipad or android tablet. Might run on a phone. I don't know. I find it quite useful sometimes. Like this match.

It's fairly good on who is going to win. Not so good for the draw.

thanks pxb, i will have a look. I see they use monte carlo simulation etc. I suppose the "n" will always be a problem with these things but as you say it can be a useful tool.

SAF need a 175 lead to be safe, with the prospect of 1 or 2 hours play tommorow.

"n" - I assume you mean sample size. Widely misunderstood IMO.

another one missed at slip. did it carry, yes, maybe not quick enough from Jimmy.

yes sample size...

I was laying Kiwis at 3.9 less than an hour ago!

another chance... should have taken that one...

james neesham....

We are getting into a window where NZ could lose. SAF all out for around a 150 lead and there could be enough time to knock over NZ.

Saffers value their wickets in away tests better than anyone else imo, never bought that line about them being chokers.

run lines is going to be interesting. Lets say Saf get to 250 odd today at stumps and then its a washout (or very close to it) tomorrow as the forecast indicates...

we probably will not get all the overs in tonight either as the light may come into play... oh these weather interrupted games are fun are they not.

comms just said it might rain all day tomorrow... finally they mention rain :)

light too dark for the quick bowlers, so need to carry on with spin.

light ok again for Wagner now. Funny game this.

Wait to see what the weather looks like tomorrow.

yeah if its a washout then the draw will be nailed on. But got to think NZ have the edge if they get the overs in. Not that I think they will. Forecast is pretty bad.

the SAF run lines are available to back 225 and over at 1.08 so the market seems to think that there is a good chance of no play.

Draw drifting on what looks like a drizzerly forecast. Will need at least 50 overs for a result.

weather forecast def improved but cannot c much play with light rain forecasted all day.

Rain certainly looks less biblical tomorrow but the trouble they had with one shower and a bit of bad light on day 4 illustrates how much time could be lost with even a few showers. I'm not totally confident my SA red of £5k isn't a risk but I'm not laying any more draw off at 1.34 when even a full day's play wouldn't be at all certain to produce a result. Tempted to lay off some NZ green as the Kiwi win almost definitely needs two sessions, even if they take the last four wickets in say 10 overs, as they wouldn't be able to go mad chasing around 200. SA just could win in 50 overs if they get bowled out really quickly and get some swing and some luck with the new ball. Don't see either result being that realistic without close to a full day of play, really, which I very much doubt we'll see.

no rain for day 5 should be tight finish

Really, that will shock a few..............

95 overs too!

Are you discussing hypotheticals, on the wind up or really saying there will be no rain Jucel? The forecast is now for small rather than large amounts of rain but still sounds like enough to have the players off the field for a god slice of the day. Some of it may be the kind of drizzle they could play through but if they come off for rain or bad light, it needs not to be raining for them even to contemplate a restart.

light rain all day from what im looking at

http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/dunedin

rain all day

That's not a forecast of continuous rain but unless it's wrong, there will be enough to prevent a result even with near miracle strike rates and near miracle SR Steyn isn't playing.

maybe not continuous, but there is a threat of rain all day.

Mar 11, 2017 -- 12:59PM, DAN1974 wrote:

maybe not continuous, but there is a threat of rain all day.

I agree, although I'm a little worried I'm talking through my pocket. Does seem unlikely there will be even two sessions of play to me though.

I am definitely talking with my pocket and i am definitely worried as i have a big SA red. we will just have to wait and see, i will be glued to the radar and hopefully Tyco can give us some info from New Zealand as well. Anyway i'm off to do my rain dance

i could green up now for a small profit and walk away of course, but if it then rains all day i shall be extremely p1ssed off.

I could green for a really solid profit but also not going to, although if I can get rid of some exposure by laying at 1.3, I will, after jucel spooked me. If I get that will probably keep trading though.

It's not like Juce to be so forthright and be totally wrong at the same time...

Having a good green position but thoughts of smashing the draw again are canned tfn.

draw shortening

Mar 11, 2017 -- 4:55PM, DAN1974 wrote:

draw shortening

I got rid of a couple of k at 1.3. Wouldn't be surprised to see a fair bit of volatility anyway, so may have been a good thing to do.

going nuts now, they must be waking up to rain in NZ, the radar certainly looks ominous

Should SA declare? With what looks like the inevitable loss of play, there probably isn't going to be enough time left for NZ to reach this total as it is, unless they risk throwing the bat around like a one-dayer, in which case they might conceivably collapse in the process of trying.

it would be a brave move, but it wont happen, best just to except the draw and move on in the first match of the series.

South Africa won't declare unless they're in a position where they can't lose.

The batting side always controls the game, the tempo, possible declarations etc. Look at the Bangladesh fiasco, it's amazing how many times the batting side collapse on the 5th day. if the Bangles had not been batting they couldn't have implemented the fix.

Of course it's all aceademic if it rains.

draw 1.12 !

The run lines seem to suggest a good chance of SA not scoring ANY further runs, with only one more being needed to reach 225 - last price matched 1.5!

makes you think of a full bank job on the draw

unless somebody has heard a whisper they are going to declare, but i just cant see that

somebodys laying 2k that saffers don't score another run got to be tipoff

It's cold and still today in Dunedin, not exactly drying weather.

Best not to have any draw back or result lay bets up in case a declaration leaks out before being officially announced.

why would they declare, i just cant see it.

If it rains for 1st hour then south will surly declare

Could be dangerous for draw backers

Especially if it brightens up for the rest of the day.

V

why would they declare after an hour and risk losing ? that makes no sense

If it looks like we will get some play market will go crazy.

If it rains for 1st hour I suspect no play for at least next 3 hours

Outfield loos wet

the way the draw is being backed they might have already shook hands

If as bat then draw shud be 99%

is it raining now ?

Mar 11, 2017 -- 7:36PM, pxb wrote:

If it looks like we will get some play market will go crazy.

Yes but it doesn't look as if we will get much if any. Thing is, unless there's play first thing, or at least an immediate prospect of some there's next to no chance of a result, which I thinking I should why the draw is at 1.1. Despite my £2.4k draw green and £3k SA red, I'm a bit irritated as wanted to do some trading.

If forecast is correct then no result.

How many times has it been wrong

The forecast said it would not be raining now but it is

Raining quite hard right now

But that wasn't in the forecast

If it stopped now how long will the outfield take to dry

there looks like a lot of rain coming in on the radar

even money on SA scoring one run

That's because every1s Gona talk as into a declaration.

Comma we're talking of a as Dec yesterday urging them to score faster. Elgar tried,And he looked awful after playing so solidly

or is it because its going to p1ss it down all day and there will be no play.

I'm hoping

I just don't trust weather forecasts. Wrong more than 50% of the time

Cold and no breeze means any rain that falls will not dry up, this is done imo

LPM 1.44 on 225 runs.

its rain all day 1.10 great value for draw get on it weather forecast improved from yesterday from heavy rain too light rain but again raining all day

Weather forecasts always change until we r in the present

Even the they get it wrong

I live in bham U.K.  It's rainy hard here yet if u check the forecast it says it's dry

No play 1st session. Maybe take early lunch. Play could be possible after that

where are you getting that info from ?

Predictions dan

Even if drys right now. Will take time to dry

Still raining and it's not drizzle or showers

https://twitter.com/BLACKCAPS

weather forecast not always correct but is raining in dunedin now and any gaps in the rain will not be long enough for play or a result

Nz win impossible.

South a winning is very slim but possible

none of the outfield is covered so hard to see how there will be enough time for it to dry even if it does stop raining, it only took a bit of light drizzle to stop play yesterday and then we have got bad light as well. i could green up now for a nice profit but i think its wasting money.

Me2.

But this is so stressful

According to forecast draw is 1.01

Radio/TV coverage will start shortly and then 1.01?

Tyco will be here soon with the latest

Total rainfall forecast for today: 17.8 mm

We definitely want another 60 or 70 more runs. It's about dictating terms," Neil McKenzie, South Africa's batting coach, said after bad light ended play on the fourth day

Not that they will get the chance.

There was talk of them declaring earlier on here. No chance.

even locals say no chance of play today

Mar 11, 2017 -- 8:14PM, hitlerwinsagainlolol wrote:

Weather forecasts always change until we r in the presentEven the they get it wrongI live in bham U.K.  It's rainy hard here yet if u check the forecast it says it's dry

hope you all cashed in on the betfair madness yesterday 1.8 the draw with today always being a washout !! ironically the forecast actually improved overnight, but there you go, we all get paid thanks to the bookies holding up the prices on betfair

forget the met office they are hopeless with their £2b funding each year, quite simply hopeless

I don't see how anyone could of failed to win on this game

Made a very nice profit, and didn't even bother greening up. It's going to rain all day.

According to cricbuz the players haven't even left their hotel yet

Mar 11, 2017 -- 9:54PM, PLEASE TELL THE TRUTH wrote:

forget the met office they are hopeless with their £2b funding each year, quite simply hopeless

Same guys that had today rainy from before the test even started? How did you make your easy money on this test then? Did God tell you what would happen?

FS, some people think talking cryptic b0ll0cks makes them sound clever.

Mar 11, 2017 -- 10:58PM, pxb wrote:

FS, some people think talking cryptic b0ll0cks makes them sound clever.

Hold on, I think that! Isn't it true?

Useful exercise combing through a thread after the conclusion of a game to see how insightful folks have been.   Iffy weather was mentioned well in advance by most of the regulars.

Hi Cardinal Scott, if you are on here often enough you tend to work out who you can and cannot trust and who has the correct info. Yes that weather on Sunday was predicted a long time before so I had bet accordingly. The draw price on the Saturday was puzzling.