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butt
06 Dec 16 16:40
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Date Joined: 02 Apr 11
| Topic/replies: 588 | Blogger: butt's blog
07-12

Toss Rajshahi win hope so

c u in running match

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Replies: 48
By:
Bepop
When: 07 Dec 16 11:24
I see titans won toss elected to bat
By:
Bepop
When: 07 Dec 16 11:26
Are titans capable of posting decent score batting first?
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 11:48
I wouldn't count on it even though I've backed them. If they get to 140 I'll be happy.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 11:52
Before last match, I think it was, I'd never heard of Kesrick Williams but he's not a bad bowler.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 11:58
Turned into a comedy.
By:
DStyle
When: 07 Dec 16 12:05
that's a good decision.

the degree to which the bails had been dislodged and that his bat was only just over the line means that it's correct to induce that inbetween frames there was a time when the bails were just off and the bat wasn't over the line.

there are times when you can't make that call, and have to give the benefit to the batsman, but not there.
By:
DStyle
When: 07 Dec 16 12:05
induce? deduce/infer.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 12:07
I thought the same but was still surprised he was given out.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 12:12
Left to the captain again to get 'em out of a mess.
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 07 Dec 16 12:15
BF score feed is the wrong way around!!
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 12:37
Haven't done so but very tempted to cash out as I think they're knackered after another wicket.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 12:43
But so far no sign of dew and Kings are prone to an early batting collapse. Tricky one.
By:
Bepop
When: 07 Dec 16 12:48
I think another wicket down and it will crumble...

However do titans have the bowling it takes ?
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 12:48
Surpised odds didn't move much on that wicket. Takes me from a small green to smaller red though.
By:
black shuck
When: 07 Dec 16 12:50
am i missing something here? very moderate score with half the side out ball seemingly doing nothing and titans price still relatively low
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 12:50
Danny's 160-170 seems out of the question to me. And yes I think Titans have the bowlers if they have a total to defend, they've done it a couple of times.
By:
Bepop
When: 07 Dec 16 12:50
Ok so thats the end of that....
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 12:59
And that is very bad news.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 13:10
Another fine mess I've got myself into. Laid at 1.19. Will be looking to change sides at sometime but odds are killing me!
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 07 Dec 16 13:19
Amid my losses on test matches lately I'm actually in profit on this tourney!  Big Samit coming to the party today!
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 13:24
Well done CS. I'm actually having a good tourney as well. It mainly looks like I'm losing (and frequently am!) but have swapped sides for the good a lot of times albeit at short odds.
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 07 Dec 16 13:33
Charlie, if you took all your initial odds-on backs and laid them instead (and let them run or greened-up at much longer odds) how well or badly do you reckon you would have done?
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 13:35
VV
Not sure I understand that as I nearly always back at odds against to start.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 13:39
Last few overs have helped the cause immensely.
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 07 Dec 16 13:40
Ah fair enough. I assumed that if you swapped sides at short odds you must have started off backing the other side odds on.
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 07 Dec 16 13:42
Do you mean you usually back the longer odds then sometimes bail out at even longer odds?
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 13:47
I usually back the team batting first but with the caveat that they're odds against or I believe there's a very good reason for backing team batting first. During the first innings I tend to lay bowling team if there's a wicket and keep doing so for a good few wickets or when odds are quite short (as in my lay at 1.19 in this game).

If things go tits up I don't mind swapping to the apparently winning team at short odds if, and only if, I'm certain in my own mind they will win. I rarely swap in first innings and don't leave it late when odds are prohibitive.

So far I'm not certain Kings win so still on Titans.
By:
Bepop
When: 07 Dec 16 13:52
Thats a fair assumption Charlie..
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 13:54
Backing odds against often puts me looking at a red screen but I try not to panic too much! Worse situation is when the team batting first gets bowled out for 47 or whatever then I feel silly!
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 13:56
Plus If I can build up a big green on, apparently, losing team then swapping doesn't cost that much.
By:
Bepop
When: 07 Dec 16 13:59
Surely this is going to take an immense bowling effort by Titans, bring on the wickets!!
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 14:02
There's a bit more to it that though VV as in backing/laying for short trades.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 14:02
Now I'm exactly neutral.
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 07 Dec 16 14:04
I always seem to come a-croppers backing odds shorter than evens in T20, even when "repairing" a position, so I try to resist, no matter how certain things look. Otherwise it's too easy to get into a "Martingale"-type scenario if two teams flip-flop repeatedly.

Laying first innings short odds after wickets feels like the more natural trade for me, so I often don't get to trade at all. I don't feel my judgement is good enough to consistently outwit the market at 'normal' odds. There's so much randomness in T20 that laying 1.3 and below for a trade seems like a reasonable risk/reward in many situations. Backing or laying close to evens always seems to go pear-shaped for me, so if I do it I keep it small with the plan to add a little more at better odds if one or two wickets fall early.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 14:06
I like to back the odds against team when there's flippers.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 14:07
Have backed some at 1.47 though to even up book a tad.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 14:08
A mistake I do make is that after being under the cosh for ages I tend to green out too early. It's a tricky one though.
By:
Charlie
When: 07 Dec 16 14:10
As for randomness in T20 I maintain it's the best market to bet on.
By:
VardonVoo.
When: 07 Dec 16 14:22
I prefer test matches, but there are simply not enough of them and calendar events, sleep requirements and having a social life can interfere with one's trading plans. So I can see that T20s are great betting markets, especially for contrarians! I just need to bite the bullet and put more at risk each time. I'm sure I actually do better in T20 by not following the match itself, which feels irresponsible and immoral somehow.

Greening out to early is an error of mine too, so what I try to aim for is the "free trade" (e.g. lay at say 1.1, buy back half at 1.2, run the rest) then wait for a move up to close to evens then scale out bit by bit. I've yet to run a short odds lay all the way through a flip-flop, lay some back at short odds the other way then see a another flip-flop all the way - that's my wet-dream scenario.
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