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jucel69
07 Nov 16 05:38
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Date Joined: 03 Aug 12
| Topic/replies: 60,388 | Blogger: jucel69's blog
Pitch looks like it might turn a tad.
I'm expecting 5-0, just can't find a market that will let me put that bet on.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwos2n8VQAAit4Q.jpg
Pause Switch to Standard View INDIA V ENGLAND - 1ST TEST RAJKOT
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Report jucel69 November 12, 2016 10:49 AM GMT
Amazing, only 20 wickets in this game & 15 already in Hobart!
Report jucel69 November 12, 2016 11:02 AM GMT
Not very often Atherton uses words like 'astonishing' in terms of players. Very high praise for Hameed
Report cricketnut2 November 12, 2016 11:18 AM GMT
Commentators trying to sell tomorrows play. England won't be declaring until Tea.
Report SnowyFox November 12, 2016 11:37 AM GMT
Stupid question, but given it's nearing day 5 without either side having a clear advantage, why is tied match yes priced at 140?
Report cricketnut2 November 12, 2016 11:45 AM GMT
well its not really is it, someone is trying to lay it at 140, nobody though is wanting to back it, even at 1000.
Report slip5 November 12, 2016 11:47 AM GMT
carnage in the titans vs vikings game Laugh
Report bobweenit November 12, 2016 12:04 PM GMT
Krueger hitting 6s 4 fun in the Ram Slam
Report slip5 November 12, 2016 12:14 PM GMT
Freddy
Report DAN1974 November 12, 2016 12:39 PM GMT

Nov 12, 2016 -- 11:37AM, SnowyFox wrote:


Stupid question, but given it's nearing day 5 without either side having a clear advantage, why is tied match yes priced at 140?


read the rules snowy, a tied match is not the same as a draw.

Report SnowyFox November 12, 2016 2:34 PM GMT

Nov 12, 2016 -- 12:39PM, DAN1974 wrote:


Nov 12, 2016 -- 11:37AM, SnowyFox wrote:Stupid question, but given it's nearing day 5 without either side having a clear advantage, why is tied match yes priced at 140?read the rules snowy, a tied match is not the same as a draw.


Ah, thanks for clearing that up.

Report Whisperingdeath November 12, 2016 3:30 PM GMT
I think snowy must be a disciple of The Grant!Laugh
Report GRANTCKING November 12, 2016 3:35 PM GMT

Nov 12, 2016 -- 3:30PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:


I think snowy must be a disciple of The Grant!


thai time Cool

Report Fatslogger November 12, 2016 3:35 PM GMT
Looks like England will bat to a declaration at lunch and be unlikely to find enough time to bowl India out, although a couple of early wickets and a good spell from a spinner or two and it could be interesting. I won't be getting up for it though.
Report DAN1974 November 12, 2016 3:41 PM GMT
i dont think he will declare at lunch unless they are 300 ahead
Report cricketnut2 November 12, 2016 5:02 PM GMT
He won't declare, no point, there have been 20 wickets in 4 days cricket, so how anyone thinks England would have the remotest chance of getting 10 wickets in 3 hours is completely deluding themselves, plus the fact we are always very negative with declarations in any case.
Report DAN1974 November 12, 2016 5:35 PM GMT
he will declare, i agree they have got next to no chance, but he will declare at some point.
Report Fatslogger November 12, 2016 6:28 PM GMT
It's unlikely England could win in two sessions, even less likely in under two but it's not impossible. It's a matter of having some early luck or excellence and keeping wickets falling. The track is doing things for spinners now and bouncing variably for seamers.
Report the artful dodger November 12, 2016 7:37 PM GMT
So England have scored 537 and 114-0 and have been in control for most of the game in a country where it's notoriously difficult for any visiting teams to win...why on earth would Cook give India any chance of winning? He'll rest his bowlers for the next test which is only a few days away....he might declare at tea to try and embarrass a few of the Indian batsmen but I doubt he'll even do that.
Report Fatslogger November 12, 2016 8:12 PM GMT

Nov 12, 2016 -- 7:37PM, the artful dodger wrote:


So England have scored 537 and 114-0 and have been in control for most of the game in a country where it's notoriously difficult for any visiting teams to win...why on earth would Cook give India any chance of winning? He'll rest his bowlers for the next test which is only a few days away....he might declare at tea to try and embarrass a few of the Indian batsmen but I doubt he'll even do that.


I would declare because it's notoriously difficult for visiting teams to win in India so passing up a chance by not even having a go would be stupid. Well, other reasons too, like wanting to win every test possible. India won't manage to chase 280 in 60 overs, although on reflection, England will probably want north of 300 and may take until a little after lunch to get them unless one of the big hitters comes off.

Report Injera November 12, 2016 8:57 PM GMT
Bayliss and Cook (plus the other 10 support staff..) will work on an equation.

I would guess at 320 from 50 overs. So 38 overs (2 between) to score 157.
Report Fatslogger November 12, 2016 9:12 PM GMT

Nov 12, 2016 -- 8:57PM, Injera wrote:


Bayliss and Cook (plus the other 10 support staff..) will work on an equation.I would guess at 320 from 50 overs. So 38 overs (2 between) to score 157.


I'd be much more aggressive but then I've got £7k green on England (and £4K on India) with only £1k on draw. I think they probably will want 300, on reflection. That's not actually impossible by lunch but given how little credence people are giving to England with 10 wickets in hand getting near 150 in a session, in a situation where if it goes wrong there's very little risk of defeat because it's fairly easy to pull out (you've got a blocker at 10 in Ansari, if it gets that far), it's hard to see why anyone would be too anxious about setting India a higher rate than that over two sessions to win. You can potentially chase 150 in a session in a test with wickets in and but doing it two sessions in a row is highly unlikely. Can anyone think of a single example?

Report pxb November 12, 2016 9:33 PM GMT
The toss did for me in this match, and while got some back, still all red for 100 to 200.
Report cricketnut2 November 12, 2016 9:44 PM GMT

Nov 12, 2016 -- 5:35PM, DAN1974 wrote:


he will declare, i agree they have got next to no chance, but he will declare at some point.


If he's got any sense he will declare when there is around 1 hour left, England cannot win, so whats the point of declaring

Report Fatslogger November 12, 2016 10:05 PM GMT

Nov 12, 2016 -- 9:44PM, cricketnut2 wrote:


Nov 12, 2016 --  5:35PM, DAN1974 wrote:he will declare, i agree they have got next to no chance, but he will declare at some point.If he's got any sense he will declare when there is around 1 hour left, England cannot win, so whats the point of declaring


This is a bizarre attitude for a gambler to have. You really estimate England to have a zero percent chance of bowling India out in 60 overs chasing 300, if it comes to it? I'm not saying I think it's likely but it's certainly possible, perhaps 10-15%, whereas I'd give India a tiny chance of even thinking about chasing it, let alone making it. The bowling side can always set defensive fields and bowl negatively if it looks a bit worrying. Of course you'd be a little anxious about Kohli but he's only even coming to the crease in time to affect the game if there's a reasonably early wicket and he's actually a fairly conservative captain. I don't think he'd play many attacking shots but if he did, that would be good for England. With the players missing, there isn't that much quick scoring threat aside from him.

Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 1:57 AM GMT
Engerlund are a proven calypso side but this is now looking unlikely at this point in time. Still think there is good value in the draw lay at 1.07 as it's day 5 carnage.

One for you Jucel,ExcitedExcited

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBYSu777SLg&spfreload=5
Report Fatslogger November 13, 2016 4:20 AM GMT
Hmm, have got rid of almost all my draw now at increasingly silly low lays. Market doesn't think England even going t try for a win. I hope it's wrong.
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 4:23 AM GMT
This game is dead FS
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:28 AM GMT
Hit 500+ and then dead bat. What is the point???
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:30 AM GMT
Done, I've and Nuts spring to mind.LaughLaughLaugh
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:31 AM GMT
Eng declare 87th over for sure.CryCry
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 4:36 AM GMT
India really don't want to face 50/60 overs. Bowling negative and drying up runs!
Report Fatslogger November 13, 2016 4:38 AM GMT
Agree Jucel. I actually thought they'd be positive but no intent shown so far.
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:38 AM GMT
1.03 starting to look good.
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:41 AM GMT
It's no wonder people take the piss out of Test fans when watching this tripe.

I doubt Grant would have set his alarm this morning.LaughLaugh
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 4:44 AM GMT
Away teams have done well in the last few tests
WI won in UAE, SA in Aus and now Eng draw in India
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 4:45 AM GMT
This has been a train from 6s on the first day
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:48 AM GMT
Fingers burnt for most on this. Draw traders must have been hurt for sure, Back to lay and then lay odds on after day 2.
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 4:50 AM GMT
I lost on my India bet and won on my draw bet, but laid off from 6s to 2s.
Didn't expect it to be this easy the draw back.
Been no scares/collapses whatsoever
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:51 AM GMT
Whatever people say the draw lay at 1.7 on day 2 was always the right play.
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:51 AM GMT
As was 1.28 on day 3
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 4:51 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 4:51AM, the whizz kids wrote:


Whatever people say the draw lay at 1.7 on day 2 was always the right play.


I started doing that too, but bailed out and burnt some green. Not touched the game since

Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 4:54 AM GMT
still only 10 wicketsCrazy
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 4:55 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 4:54AM, jucel69 wrote:


still only 10 wickets


LaughLaughLaugh

Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 4:56 AM GMT
20 i mean
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 5:01 AM GMT
Kohli and Cook please shake hands.
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 5:03 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 4:56AM, jucel69 wrote:


20 i mean


20,10,or 5. makes no odds, can't even see 1 today.

Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 5:07 AM GMT
Good experience for Duckett. 13 and DNB.LaughLaugh
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 5:08 AM GMT
4444444444444444444
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 5:15 AM GMT
At least Porn Hub can liven this morning, got fck all else to do.LaughLaugh
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 5:36 AM GMT
How the fck was that out???
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 5:45 AM GMT
Stokes.ExcitedExcited
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 5:59 AM GMT
270 lead by lunch and declare ffs.
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 6:02 AM GMT
cook playing for a red inker!
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 6:05 AM GMT
Yeah, I would have liked to see Cook play sensible and others fcking go for it tbh.
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 6:08 AM GMT
Time for some music.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn3c_t9cBrA

I feel 9 wickets after lunch.
Report currant bun November 13, 2016 6:33 AM GMT
zzzz lad
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 6:34 AM GMT
It would make more sense tbh Bun.
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 7:19 AM GMT
Surprised India are not in single digits!
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 7:21 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 7:19AM, jucel69 wrote:


Surprised India are not in single digits!


There must be a plethora of Indians who think this will be a routine chase!

Report Cardinal Scott November 13, 2016 7:22 AM GMT
Sehwag in his pomp would have this market India 12/1 right now!
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 7:29 AM GMT
India are not a 75/1 shot for sure. Worth a couple a quid.
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 7:39 AM GMT
nice start
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 7:39 AM GMT
Pob out for nowt!
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 7:41 AM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 7:39AM, jucel69 wrote:


Pob out for nowt!


Laugh

Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 7:44 AM GMT
India don't fancy this at all, you can tell by their body language
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 7:45 AM GMT
Kholi's wicket would be the one that gets the market moving, even though he's not a great test player yet.
Report Fatslogger November 13, 2016 7:46 AM GMT
India would have shortened after a couple of overs if they'd actually scored some runs but they were never going to be interested in this chase. Don't think they'd have gone for 270 in 60 either although they might at least have given that some thought.
Report cricketnut2 November 13, 2016 8:06 AM GMT
The only thing thats going to move the market, is the end.
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 8:17 AM GMT
2 drops already
Report DAN1974 November 13, 2016 8:27 AM GMT
Why isnt Rashid bowling ? if Cook dislikes him that much he shouldnt of picked him in the side.
Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 8:28 AM GMT
They are playing plenty of shots!
Report DAN1974 November 13, 2016 8:38 AM GMT
pitched miles outside leg Laugh
Report DAN1974 November 13, 2016 9:24 AM GMT
oi oi
Report tomtimtum November 13, 2016 9:24 AM GMT
Game on!
Report tomtimtum November 13, 2016 9:24 AM GMT
Into the tail
Report VardonVoo. November 13, 2016 9:46 AM GMT
That went under 7-1 to get 6 Indian wickets in under 25 overs. Who'd o' thunk it?
Report jewell November 13, 2016 9:49 AM GMT
Should have declared 10 overs earlier. India were never going to chase this.
Report Trident November 13, 2016 9:56 AM GMT
I know nothing about cricket. What was the highest price matched on the draw? Isn't a draw rare in cricket?
Report jewell November 13, 2016 10:22 AM GMT
5 down, but too little, too late.
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 10:23 AM GMT
60 balls, 5 wickets= 5k
Report tomtimtum November 13, 2016 10:34 AM GMT
oi oi!
Report the whizz kids November 13, 2016 10:35 AM GMT
Come on.Happy
Report tomtimtum November 13, 2016 10:35 AM GMT
ExcitedExcited
Report tomtimtum November 13, 2016 10:38 AM GMT
Damn, too close Cry
Report tomtimtum November 13, 2016 10:40 AM GMT
25 mins, maybe get 7 overs, 8 at a push
Report tomtimtum November 13, 2016 10:41 AM GMT
Get on them ump
Report VardonVoo. November 13, 2016 10:45 AM GMT
In a situation where the scoring doesn't matter you'd think Eng would bowl more yorkers.
Report Cardinal Scott November 13, 2016 10:47 AM GMT
I've had a great screen for all of this test after my pre game 1.67 India lay but I got into fair bit of trouble laying England at big prices, safe now but raging at myself.
Report slip5 November 13, 2016 10:56 AM GMT
declaration was to late
Report Injera November 13, 2016 11:25 AM GMT
Shame about the declaration. All this talk of 'aggressive' cricket doesn't apply to captains and field settings.

So many captains are timid and fearful. Could have put their foot down before lunch and set India 280 in 2 sessions.

To lose 2 in between was rather dense..
Report DAN1974 November 13, 2016 11:34 AM GMT
Great performance by England though. It looks like we are going to have a competitive series which is good from a betting point of view.
Report Fatslogger November 13, 2016 2:36 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 11:25AM, Injera wrote:


Shame about the declaration. All this talk of 'aggressive' cricket doesn't apply to captains and field settings. So many captains are timid and fearful. Could have put their foot down before lunch and set India 280 in 2 sessions.To lose 2 in between was rather dense..


Couldn't agree more. Hameed and Cook have had good tests and batted both positively and sensibly last night but were far too conservative this morning with England already far enough on that a chase was unlikely even following a collapse and most of the limited overs middle order ready to come in.

Report jucel69 November 13, 2016 9:26 PM GMT
I went out just before tea and put a large draw lay @ 1.03 with a 1.5 back
Came back a couple of hours later and as I came through the door, I heard Jadeja's name.
Got excited until I saw my screen and the draw was 1.05Cry
Anyone know what the draw went out to?
Report Fatslogger November 13, 2016 9:56 PM GMT

Nov 13, 2016 -- 9:26PM, jucel69 wrote:


I went out just before tea and put a large draw lay @ 1.03 with a 1.5 backCame back a couple of hours later and as I came through the door, I heard Jadeja's name.Got excited until I saw my screen and the draw was 1.05Anyone know what the draw went out to?


I got back on the draw at 1.12 when the fourth wicket fell, having got several lays in well below that. It went up a little from there but nowhere much about 1.14, I don't think. Not sure what it was when the 5th and 6th wickets fell but there wasn't much time left by then.

Report Whisperingdeath November 14, 2016 10:42 AM GMT
I took a loss on this Test. My first proper loss since July. I fancied a gamble and it didn't come off for once. I had a huge green on England and low exposure to the draw so let it ride, which, I know I shouldn't have but it was a real chance at a big win and would have won me my first Carrera.

I think in hindsight I should have been more aggressive about India lays than England backs as that is my usual strategy but we have seen so many disintergrating pitches this year I felt there was a strong chance this might be the case.

I have to say I was wrong but only after my first day of betting had got me into a great position.

Looking forward I think the selectors need to make a hard decision and bring in Butler ( Billings! ) for Duckett who should be given a chance to demsonstrate his international batting technique in white ball cricket. He looks too vunerable at Test level already.

I am not entirely sure how the rest of the series wil go. My main strategy will be to lay the team batting second. I think these two sides are evenly matched. England look like they have spinners when they score 500. I am not sure how many times they will get 500 and expect spin to play a big part.

Funny I was talking before the series started about the possibility of a drawn game and I missed the first one. I nearly went in heavy at 5's I think on day 1 / 2 I can't remember but layed India at odds on instead.
Report Fatslogger November 14, 2016 1:35 PM GMT
My massive day 1 was from backing draw pre game heavily, then having got a lot layed off, doing so again when wickets fell. As I was green on the draw, it was fairly easy to lay it more and back England, keeping some green, although I did the opposite of you and ended up moving too far away from my original position and only winning moderately rather than massively.

I wouldn't beat yourself up too much. Obviously an England lay in the 2s from huge green would have been rewarding but letting it run was fair enough. England generally looked a little long to me so not many obvious jumping off points and it could easily have been a win with better catching. I tend to ensure at least some win when really well placed but I think that's far more psychology than sound method.
Report Foinavon November 14, 2016 2:11 PM GMT
I lost money on this Test too. The pitch held up better than I expected. We were about 30 overs short of a result. It happens.
Report Injera November 14, 2016 3:39 PM GMT
Loser signing in too.


5 days of perfect weather on a turning track yet no panic in the draw price. I thought the game would speed up at some point but never did. Eng getting to 100-0 close of Day 4 was not in my plans..

Ashwin's record against Eng is dire, a factor I hadn't considered. Looks like the Bangles tour has set us up quite nicely.

It was a match for laying the Indian bowlers which is a tricky concept when we think what happened in Dhaka..
Report Fatslogger November 14, 2016 9:15 PM GMT
Sometimes you make the right moves and still lose. Knowing when you were unlucky and when you were over romantic, unwise or just plain stupid can be difficult but I don't think anyone ending up caught laying the draw short or backing England at any number of prices through the game did a bad thing.
Report Whisperingdeath November 15, 2016 11:41 AM GMT
absolutely, particularly when we have won so much betting long shots!
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