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Laid again 1.46!
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I need to get some money down so laying anything short.
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Lancs making a real fuss of this, look out of form on a sticky wicket
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You going to Edgbaston next week Charlie?
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No way Tom. Don't want to be in the ground with so many you know who.
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Worried about an attack? Or just general dislike?
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Only been to Birmingham a couple of times, didn't like the feel of it for some reason
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Not at all worried about an attack. And no personal dislike, in general, but when so many get together in one place I feel uncomfortable.
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Brum town centre is fine. Some of the quite close areas are dire though.
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Volume on these cricket matches is up ridiculously on last year.
These RL matches didnt even reach 1m last year and now almost 3m after 10 overs. Not sure how much is real and how much is self matching tho, some really strange goings on pre match in alot of the markets. |
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I've noticed that Tom. Odds go up and down for no reason and then take off in one direction.
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Its great when you get in front of it
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Can understand the Toss can sometimes have a huge effect but lots of times it just happens for no reason, feels like someone with very deep pockets is moving it around
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It is but..
That test match betting has been something else as well. |
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Been up too late for the SL match
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If you can try and make it in the morning could be very volatile.
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Rain always makes people go mad
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I've completely overbet on it. Was, and still, am convinced Aussies win easily but getting a little twitchy as if SL's odds drop I've no escape clause.
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I've another lay up at 7.8 which I hope is taken but only because I think odds will be around 8.6 by the morning.
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Thats the problem with laying at high odds in Test matches, hard to escape if you need to
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Laid a fair amount of Pak at 180-200 to steal some green
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Price kept shortening even tho it didnt look like they'd get close
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I remember Tom. People laughed at me when I laid at 48!
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Slowly creeping into green on this now.
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Not going to do any of those high odd lays anymore in test match, too much hassle!
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They're actually good value in most cases but does mess with your mind a bit.
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They're great value for sure but can make you very uncomfortable
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Having a 20k red to win £100 isnt worth it!
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I haven't gone that far (I think) but some bets I've put on have been as daft. Then again i'm still trying out new things. One day i will get caught doing something silly but it will probably be only a psychological thing as I've won and saved a fair few bob doing it.
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wow, price breakout! Went to get a tea and Derbs 30 ticks higher
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drop??
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Must be on a nice green now Charlie
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Currently reading an okish book: Thinking Fast and Slow by Kahneman. It's a bit boring and not directly related to betting. But the, not new, message is people want to hold what they have and are prepared to gamble if they're losing. Greening when winning is bad, redding when losing is good.
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Think I've read that
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To be honest Tom hadn't noticed as went to get book and was typing. But yes!
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Have you read this one Charlie?
The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction |
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Never put enough dough down though!
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Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball.
In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the essential lessons of prediction. |
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No Tom I haven't but for some reason title sounds familiar. Was reading that when wicket fell. I'll give it a try, thanks.
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