TWENTY WORLD CUP 2016

I think England, NZ and even WI could have a great day against Ind, Aus or SA ( Jew factor, Batting first on a wearing pitch, chasing on  a great batting pitch ). Bets on the favourites are always tempered as FREE money is a commodity limited to the filthy rich.

aussies look good in the batting dept but will they win in india mmmm

Foinavon, NZ's problem is they don't have a decent spinner, and I can't see a team without at least one getting to the semis when the games in lowland India start. My outsiders would be England, Windies and Banglas.

Just hoping for a run for my money pxb, could be a back to lay. Only small beer compared to what I would outlay on a test and not advising anyone to follow suit. England looks somewhat short but Windies are my kind of price.

Badree is very good, which is the reason a give WI a chance at the semis. Plus their batting of course.

Banglas are 40. They need to win their qualifying group first, but they are very short priced to do so.

Thanks pxb, have just backed Windies too. Small stakes and will bow out if I see a decent profit.Just adds interest to the competition and of no consequence if it loses.

bf's paid pundit Hawkins is ramping NZ based on stats mostly from home matches, where conditions are polar opposite to Indian dustbowls.

KoD, as I noted earlier,

If as expected we get spin friendly dry pitches then subcontinent teams could do rather better than some expect and conversely Aus, SAf, Eng and NZ could struggle. Not a prediction, but something to consider.

-----

If Banglas don't burn out from the number of matches they have played, I quite fancy them to do well.

Mar 10, 2016 -- 11:37PM, pxb wrote:

KoD, as I noted earlier,If as expected we get spin friendly dry pitches then subcontinent teams could do rather better than some expect and conversely Aus, SAf, Eng and NZ could struggle. Not a prediction, but something to consider.-----If Banglas don't burn out from the number of matches they have played, I quite fancy them to do well.

Pak's price is mainly to due to the ongoing security problems. Have they arrived in India yet?
They could pull out at any time and who knows how Bfair treat that!
I think they have only played a few games in India in the last 20 years in any format.
Pak's batting has reached an all time low but the bowling is still strong and I expect them to roll over a side or two.

SL have really surprised me. I saw a few acorns in the batting dept in NZ but they seem to have disappeared. Also, they don't seem to have any top class spinners.
Herath is more of a test bowler, Dishan is the standard batsman who bowls a bit of filth & Senanyake like most has been neutralised by a change of action. He just rolls the ball out now & has hardly any variation.

Bangla's batting is their problem at the moment. Their two best batsmen are massively out of form, Shakib & Mushfiqur.

India are the stand out team by a distance imo. All bases covered for all pitches. 90% of the players are in form & at home they will be formidable.

Pakistan supposed to arrive in Kolkata today.

The uncertainty is really cramping my trading of the winner market.

And some muppets are threatening to dig up the Eden Gardens pitch.

Jucel, how would you rate England's chances? I watched Rashid in the BBL. I think he is better than the spinners Aus are taking.

Mar 11, 2016 -- 4:21AM, pxb wrote:

Jucel, how would you rate England's chances? I watched Rashid in the BBL. I think he is better than the spinners Aus are taking.

Yeh England have Rashid & Ali v Zampa & Maxwell.
My only concern with Rashid is that I think his leg spin/googlies are much more effective in Aus.
He was getting bounce and fast spin.
How quickly will he find the correct length and speed?? And even if he does that will be effective? He thrived in Aus on those wickets, we shall see how he fares in India.
IF he bowls well I think England are second favourites as the seam bowling isn't that strong in this comp. Eng, NZ, SA & Aus haven't got the firepower of yesteryear. Spin and changes of pace from the seamers will probably be the key.
The much vaunted "deep batting lineup" has got to start to fire. Stokes, Morgan, Buttler & Ali in the middle order can't keep throwing their wickets away.
England really need to top the group or they will probably face India.
I don't like Aus at 6s at all. Their bowling looks weaker than usual.
I'm surprised they haven't taken Lyon as he has become a top spin bowler. He's a decent fielder too and not the worst number 11.
All the Aus batsmen play with hard hands & they are going to need time to adjust to the slow turning conditions. They have been playing in Aus, NZ & SA recently and that could be a problem. Maybe worth backing against them in the first game.
SA like NZ have a lot of lefties who play spin poorly. Miller, Roussow, Berhardien (RH but still sh1t!) & Duminy are very iffy against spin.
Also AB is not in great nick & Steyn is coming back from injury.
NZ have no spin to talk about  & Southee/Boult have been pretty poor now for quite a while. Henry & Milne look more threatening imo. Santner's bowling is real buffet stuff but they seem to favour him over Sodhi.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/cricket/anti-terrorist-front-of-india-threatens-to-dig-up-eden-gardens-pitch/story-14cTNdRVGeSHW75KTBQanI.html

Doesn't look good at the moment

No consideration for poor sports traders trying to earn a meagre crust.

I would just like to say to my Beer and Curry friends on here without preaching too much that I am currently launching a one man boycott of Cobra Beer and would encourage others to join me.

The Indian Government is currently run by the BJP a little like our own much loved BNP and equally as vile. Without trying to preach too much I heard a saw with mine own eyes Lord Bilimoria ( Cobra beer Founder ) defending The Indian Prime Minister on TV recently.

Like I said I dont want to preach but for this man money is much more important than people's freedom so I won't be putting my money in his pocket!

Unfortunately this puts me in an awkward situation as I will be putting money into the pocket of Mr VJ Mallya and drinking Kingfisher, although he may not have it for too much longer

Here endeth the sermon!

It can't be good for players sitting around a table discussing security

http://p.imgci.com/db/PICTURES/CMS/236200/236299.jpg

Nobody looks particularly happy or focused on a WC.

To a lot of Indians, just the thought of Pak playing in India is incendiary, imagine if Pak dared to win, there would be chaos.

Maybe the discussion is, Pak play & fall over like usual, nobody suspects anything!!

I am not sure if you are serious about saying that or just joking. But I can assure you, all India Pak games at the world cups are a drama. And you cannot even imagine beating India in India. That is simply not possible. Not in World Cups I mean. Otherwise Pak has a great record in India and they even won the last ODI series they played there.(Exactly the reason why India doesn't want Pak v Ind in India)

Anyone remember the 2011 WC and the four dropped catches? I remember Younis Khan had a tough time trying to make his drop look genuine :D That was a mighty fix at government level and Afridi was given a proper shutup call by PCB after he opened his mouth on TV. he was fined and his NOC to play county was revoked. Remember, Afridi was the highest wicket taker at the world cup yet he was fined and removed from the team! All because he got angry at a reporters question and its hard to to keep him quiet.

Just for your info, the current Pak PM is into cricket as well(making money through it). Its the same guy who made the team lose to Bangladesh in 1999(was PM then as well). My guess is, they are not getting the desired amount of money in return, thus threatening a pullout. Its not gonna happen though, there is too much money to lose for Pakistan if they pull out. And money is what matters here, neither cricket nor security. My guess is we are gonna hear the good news tonight.

Sarcastic, moi???

Not sure if Indian superstition or Pakistan perceived conspiracies has make me more money over the years. My bank loves them both equally.

The good news has arrived my friends...

I don't think many people really care that much about T20. Netherlands v Oman. No result (abandoned without a toss).

Market still seems unclear as to whether Pak will actually play.

Some pundits are saying lay Australia based on their poor T20I record. Whether they qualify for the semis will likely come down to their match against NZ and in Indian conditions I'd favour Aus to win.

Looks like Rashid might be England's match winner with the ball, with Ali chipping in. They need it because the rest look distinctly average.
England could be a lay to back when they are bowling in this WC. I expect them to go for plenty in the first 6 & then drag it back.
Also expect a massive massive choke with the bat at some point!

Rain forecast for Dharmasala on Thursday/Friday. Could affect the Aus/NZ game

Thx for the heads up, jucel.

England drifted out to mid 9s. If they beat WI they should be good for 2nd place and the semis. Even if they lose they are still a chance.

England's main advantage is their warm up game was in Mumbai and their first 2 games are there too. Then the last 2 in Delhi which I expect to turn.

Mar 13, 2016 -- 7:29AM, jucel69 wrote:

Rain forecast for Dharmasala on Thursday/Friday. Could affect the Aus/NZ game

forecast is worse now: Periods of rain; additional rain can lead to flooding problems

Note Badree didn't bowl in WI's warmup win. I don't think he is injured. OTOH Sammy had his one good innings for the year. So will be **** for the rest of the comp.

He didn't bowl against India either, very strange

Maybe keeping him as a secret weapon as many batsmen wouldn't have seen him before.

Maybe keeping him as a secret weapon as many batsmen wouldn't have seen him before.

India shortening a bit earlier than I expected in the Winner market. Should see 3 by the start of their match today. I love the predictability of Indian punters.

Mar 14, 2016 -- 9:30PM, pxb wrote:

India shortening a bit earlier than I expected in the Winner market. Should see 3 by the start of their match today. I love the predictability of Indian punters.

Everyone is trying to get on the juggernaut early.
With a very dry slow pitch in Nagpur I expect India to beat NZ comfortably. NZ haven't played on a slow turner in the subcontinent since 2014.

India has touched 3 a couple of times and bounced. I'm laying the bounces.

I'm backing the bounces to lay is what I meant.

Juce

If you have that spare 5 Large lying around I can make you a monkey

Back India to win Tournament on Sportsbook for 3.25 ( no commission )

Lay India on Exchange for 3.15

In my mind that is a free 10% ROCE if India win or 5% if you take the green.

pxb if you are awake you can get on it too. I guess the only drawback is your capital is tied up for a couple of weeks as the money on Sportsbook is tied up.

Oh and there is only 1,000 left on India at 3.15 to lay

It might be worth looking at Sportsbook and Exchange price comparisons real time during games.

I don't bet with bookies, WD.

In fact, I never bet on sports before bf came along.

Betfair Sportsbook pxb. I haven't even looked at what other " bookies " are offering on India.

BetVictor offering 3.5 on India!

Mar 15, 2016 -- 11:57AM, Whisperingdeath wrote:

JuceIf you have that spare 5 Large lying around I can make you a monkeyBack India to win Tournament on Sportsbook for 3.25 ( no commission )Lay India on Exchange for 3.15In my mind that is a free 10% ROCE if India win or 5% if you take the green.pxb if you are awake you can get on it too. I guess the only drawback is your capital is tied up for a couple of weeks as the money on Sportsbook is tied up.Oh and there is only 1,000 left on India at 3.15 to layIt might be worth looking at Sportsbook and Exchange price comparisons real time during games.

I'm already maxed out on India on the exchange. Avg odds about 3.3

first game,barely summat for nz to aim at,who knows...10s any appeal?

nz win comfortably - didnt see that one coming

India could be out very soon! The nerves will be jangling. Riots, I love this game. Sincerely hope India make it through.

Going to skip the Paki - Bangla game. Pride might take over the love of money for Pakistan. They could become immortals if they knock India out.

Backing England over WI tomorrow!

Haven't gone through whole thread but only post I remember tipping NZ is Foinavon. Well done my old friend!

Made a bit of a mess of my tournament winner positions, but recoverable, and surprisingly I managed a small net profit on the India NZ match from secondary markets.

Group 2 is now wide open and any of the 5 could win.

Beginner's luck Charlie, there's a long way to go yet.

Beginner's luck Charlie, there's a long way to go yet.

NZ price has halved. A decent trade.

I must admit the success of the NZ spinners against India's batting was a complete surprise to me. I thought they would get whacked around. Which implies NZ batting was very good. No Indian spinner took more than 1 wicket.

Mar 16, 2016 -- 1:27AM, pxb wrote:

Beginner's luck Charlie, there's a long way to go yet.NZ price has halved. A decent trade.I must admit the success of the NZ spinners against India's batting was a complete surprise to me. I thought they would get whacked around. Which implies NZ batting was very good. No Indian spinner took more than 1 wicket.

Hardly anyone was out to a shot in anger either. Just poking and presenting dollies to the fielders. One of the more baffling batting displays.

The penny is starting to drop about the weather for the Aus/NZ game.
If that is wiped out then NZ will probably drop down to 6s

The 9.4 on England is looking good. Get past WI and they should be in the semis.

Mar 16, 2016 -- 7:11AM, pxb wrote:

The 9.4 on England is looking good. Get past WI and they should be in the semis.

Just been thinking that myself.
They have just as much chance as SA/Aus

Funnily enough I've also been thinking about England's price. Previously laid them at 8.6 which is something I should probably get out of.

Winner market is a bit of a mess for me because of my misplaced belief in SL. Do England beat Windies is the question?

You can always hedge by backing WI as well. One of them should make the semis. Assuming Malinga doesn't play.

pxb
Sounds like a good idea but right now I'm in full-on dither mode. Rabbits, headlights, arse, elbow are words that come to mind right now. Going to have some breakfast, open a can and put some music on.

open a can

Reminds me of one of my favourite bumper stickers.

Beer, not just for breakfast

Good old Chaz on the pop already! Had a few glasses of vino myself, I need to after last night

"Beer, not just for breakfast"
The only thing which has cheered me up all day!

NZ price has halved. A decent trade.

You are right pxb. 12.5 looked too big but wouldn't be backing them at 7.6 so have cashed in my chips. Still have the West Indies bet you recommended to look forward too and although they play England first am hoping they get off to a good start.

Saw your comment on the highest scorer thread and was wondering why you would prefer the two South Africans over Gayle, Root or Buttler.

wondering why you would prefer the two South Africans over Gayle, Root or Buttler

SAF a better shot for the final. Unlikely anyone will pass Iqbal in 5 matches. And anyone who doesn't open has almost no chance.

good for windies took the 14/1 in the outright so happy from a betting perspective with that, 14/1 was way too big

Thanks for the West Indies tip pxb. Two out of two cashed out. Where next?

As a Test match punter I feel like a nun who has broken her vows of chastity. I'm starting to like it.

windies 5/1 now

Foinavon, I sent you a pm.

Thanks pxb, have replied.

sky pictures 10 seconds behind betfair market

on that point bet365 are only about a second behind Radio 5 sx  which is 0144 on your sky satellite receiver!

p.s. don't tell anyone I give money to Murdoch! he is on my proscribed list!

I've a couple hundred on the Windies at 6.2 simply because they were my outside tip at 13s and all the the other teams just don't look up to the job. NZ look good but eventually they will have to bat and I can see them coming up short against a W.I side. Eng still have a small shout.

The spinners were really effective last night in Bangalore.
With that in mind, India might have a little word with the groundsman to make sure tonight's is the same.

New Zealand have drifted out to 6, which is a bit surprising as they have the easyist route to the semis with matches against Pak and Banglas.

England also have a couple of easy matches against Ghans and Lankans, but will need WI to beat SAF, played at Nagpur and I fancy the WI spinners chances there.

One other oddity is that Aus are 1.18 to be Bangla today, yet India are 1.22 to beat Bangla.

Mar 21, 2016 -- 2:36AM, pxb wrote:

New Zealand have drifted out to 6, which is a bit surprising as they have the easyist route to the semis with matches against Pak and Banglas.England also have a couple of easy matches against Ghans and Lankans, but will need WI to beat SAF, played at Nagpur and I fancy the WI spinners chances there.

No games feel easy when you are betting on them

Well the toss seems to be pretty important in a close game and many of these sides have destructve batsmen. Aus are troubling me on a dodgy pitch.

It is so hard to predict at times or rather so hard to put money down with conviction although I do fancy India to pick up. Aus and SA could be out before the semi's who'da?

First time in nearly a year that I could go green on the winner market. Was backing SL like they were unbeatable. Has taken me a while and a few fortunate results to even get close to greening.

Aussies and SA still big problems for me though.

I'm enjoying the different pitches. Some are 180+, others 140.

Tweakers will no doubt decide this tourny.

Very hard to call. NZ the only team to impress. Pakistan a huge price (50s).

NZ definitely have looked good - tbf West Indies have looked pretty handy as well.

Yup, Windies looking good. Reliant on Gayle but that's no bad thing. 1 batsman can have a huge impact in such a short format.

Got winnings from Pakistan going out but has turned book red again. A win for Windies would certainly help now.

Time to think about semi match ups. Looks like NZ v Eng. If Guptill's fit, I like NZ's chances.

And WI v India or Aus. I wouldn't like to pick a winner, but whoever wins will likely win the final.

India too short of course in the winner market. 4.1 versus 6 for Aus. They won't be that far apart in the match odds.

Posted a similar match up on game thread.

England have to beat SL first which for me is not a given. If they do and play NZ then I'd expect NZ to win but wouldn't put my house on it.

Aussies v India is tricky but expect India to win. Current odds of 1.7 for India don't seem that far out of line to winner market.

Should India lose then Aussies against Windies is a toss-up imo.

Final for me is India v NZ.

I'd expect a bunsen for the Aus India match which will heavily favour India. But I'll be interested to hear jucel's 2 cents worth.

SL without Malinga have been poor and Eng should beat them handily.

semis

w indies v india

england v nz

is y prediction

final windes v india

Mar 25, 2016 -- 9:38PM, pxb wrote:

I'd expect a bunsen for the Aus India match which will heavily favour India. But I'll be interested to hear jucel's 2 cents worth.SL without Malinga have been poor and Eng should beat them handily.

Mohali has been high scoring so far so it will definitely be interesting to see what they dish up against Aus!
I personally think they could outscore Aus on a flat track but they seem to be obsessed with preparing spinning decks.
The thing is India are not batting particularly well on them!

That's right. India beat Aus 3-0 on flat Australian tracks.

Should the unthinkable happen and SL beat England what odds do you think SL and SA would go to? Maybe 25 and 8?

Mar 26, 2016 -- 7:43AM, Charlie wrote:

Should the unthinkable happen and SL beat England what odds do you think SL and SA would go to? Maybe 25 and 8?

Sounds about right

Don't really buy that the two sides that are about to slug out an effective quarter final should be first and fourth favourites of the five remaining but I'm not sure I'm sold enough on the WI to lay both hard. 

Hmm, Aus slipped to 5th of 5 while cogitating on it but still both seem very short.  If you go on the tournament so far, surely WI have outperformed England and NZ been the best by a street so it can't make sense to have WI a very clear underdog against either India or Aus and NZ only moderately favoured against England.  Course, that's not the only way of judging it but don't see India or Australia's overall merits as clear enough either.

What do India go to if winning tomorrow?  Think about 2.8? Australia 3.1 or so if it's them instead?

Bet the windies @ 15/2  pre comp  (they were 7/1 on here lol) the day the windies squad was announced only to see them drift to 14.00+  around the contract issues and then the withdrawals of narine / polly / bravo / simmons. (done like a kipper)

But still holding a decent position on them, but cant bring myself to trade out now and this market, well....i cant quite get to grips with it.

really hoping for a good windues performance tomor, tho a significant loss would be interesting if it resulted in a windies v nz semi...

but cant see that, so been looking at potential outright prices if a, india win and b, aus win.  I obviously  want india out, (bloody bangladesh) but im looking at the market and thinking backing windies / eng / nz right now, look like almost possible free backs??? with little downside.

lets say india win and the money piles in!!!

india 2.34
nz  4.7............4.6 now
wi 5.7.............5.6 now
eng 5.5............5.3 now..............is 100.05%   

so india take up all of the australian slack and the other 3 drift a tick and you have 100% book aslong as india dont go as short as 2.34...  anything bigger than 2.34... and the other 3 take up the rest of the slack so possibly very similar to what they are know...  maybe the windies drift with the upcoming semi but eng / nz stay very similar.

but if australia beat the indians, or even look like getting on top....then all four teams i think will shorten to various degree's.     

aus 3.0
nz  4.0
eng 4.5
wi  5.0.....ish.   Id prob have the windies / nz a little shorter with the upcoming semi's, form so far... but again...all shorten. 100%

Cant work out this market.

How do you guys price up both india and aus winning please??

My analysis is. India with 3 matches to win is too short at 4.1, which drags Aus too short, which makes the other three value.

too big disparity between match odds ind v aus and on the outright. india should be 4.5.

great knock by kholi...

india 2.30
nz    4.60
eng   5.10
wi    6.40

disappointed by the windies today....mmmnnn   hopefully batting paradise in mumbai and india run into a fit and firing gayle.

England look a nice price. Why outsiders? they can EASILY turn over NZ

Lanza was spot on with the India price. Well done sir.

Yesterday's over 1.8 will be the last good price we see on India. Currently 1.46 to beat WI. A bit short IMO if Gayle plays, but not by much.

Mar 3, 2016 -- 6:21AM, jucel69 wrote:

At the semi final stage, if the top 4 get through I would price as follows: This is based on Eng v India & SA v AusIndia - 2.40SA    - 4.25Aus   - 5.00Engl  - 6.50I can't see past India to be honest. If they are playing SA/Eng at the Feroz Kotla they will probably prepare a dust bowl. Guess who wins that contest?Then the same in the final and the same result.Look at the Test tracks they have been preparing in recent times against Aus/SA. Absolute snake pits. Ravi Shastri has orchestrated this after being sick of losing 3/4-0 in Aus/Eng/SA on seaming decks.They have shied away from the boring flat tracks with sponsors in mind, to bunsens, with the M.O. to make India a fortress again.They have two perfect spinners for home conditions & now they have some swing/seam that has settled into a good groove. Nehra is swinging it, Bhumra is unorthodox & Pandya is bowling some good aggressive stuff as the 5th bowler. If any of them are take apart then there is a bit of filth from Yuvraj & Raina.SA, Eng & SA cannot beat India on turning tracks. Not sure they can beat them on any tracks tbf. India even outgunned Aus in Aus a few months ago in T20s. With the other subcontinental sides appearing weaker than usual in the spin & batting depts there is no real opposition to India on slow turners in home conditions.

Not far off, just the wrong teams!

I feel only a Gayle special can derail India from here.

this was my first post back in january

India 7/2 (lay for me)  winner
Australia 11/2 (decent shout) got to semis
S. Africa 13/2 ( no chance)didnt get out of group
England 8/1 ( decent price) in the final
West Indies 9/1(no bowlers but lots of firepower)in the final
Pakistan 10/1 (could be anything) were nothing
NZ 10/1 (bottlers) yup but a bit harsh tbf
Sri Lanka  12/1(cant see it) didnt get out of group
not bad and greened out on the comp as a whole , happy days had windies at 14/1 on bf

pxb 09 Mar 16 20:47 Joined: 07 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,873 | Blogger: pxb's blog
Foinavon, NZ's problem is they don't have a decent spinner, and I can't see a team without at least one getting to the semis when the games in lowland India start. My outsiders would be England, Windies and Banglas.

That was a good call pxb. Two of your three outsiders contesting the final.
West Indies were, I think, priced around 12 at the time.

Foinavon, I was keen on WI pre-tournament, but got spooked when some top players pulled out and their price went from 8 to as high as 15 I recall. Made decent money on the Winner market, but could have made more had I stuck to my guns.

The next T20 World Cup is in 2020.