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Craig The Speculator
30 Dec 15 05:32
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Date Joined: 24 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 6,863 | Blogger: Craig The Speculator's blog
I thought I would restore the old **** official thread ****

$1.25 Australia - all about the weather forecast?
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Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 9:46 PM GMT
today's weather looks biblical on the radar
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:06 PM GMT
1.33 on the drawSurprised
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:08 PM GMT
backing the draw at 1.37
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:08 PM GMT
am I missing something???
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:10 PM GMT
hammered that 1.37/1.38 & some 1.4
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:12 PM GMT
dropping like a stone again, that was amazing
Report detraveller January 4, 2016 11:12 PM GMT
On the sportsbook its 1.14.
I think this game is doomed. Check out Wed forecast. it is worse than tuesday though previously the weather was supposed to start clearing tuesday evening. Thursday morning forecast seems to be getting worse too. I wish sportsbook was offering better rates. Im AllIn at 1.33 :D
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:13 PM GMT
There is literally hours of rain coming Sydney's way
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:14 PM GMT
The easiest trade since God created tradingWink
Report detraveller January 4, 2016 11:14 PM GMT
Free money is you ask me. Though for some reason its increased from 1.12 to 1.25 now. Cant fathom why.
Report detraveller January 4, 2016 11:16 PM GMT
Even if we do get 2 more full days(highly unlikely), WI have a 250+ first innings score. its not like they got bundled out for 120. And remember the pitch is a road.
Report detraveller January 4, 2016 11:17 PM GMT
the radar images are way way worse than what they were yesterday. As i said before, unless the windies have put their money somewhere else, this is a draw.
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:19 PM GMT
the full covers are still on
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:21 PM GMT
http://www.austadiums.com/stadiums/webcams/scg.php
Report ada January 4, 2016 11:22 PM GMT
http://www.sydneycricketground.com.au/venues/webcams/scg-cam/
Report detraveller January 4, 2016 11:22 PM GMT
They'll stay on juce, tons of rain coming sydney way. Ill go to bed now. Hope to se WI 248/7 at stumps when i wake up. Cheers!
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:23 PM GMT

Jan 4, 2016 -- 11:22PM, detraveller wrote:


They'll stay on juce, tons of rain coming sydney way. Ill go to bed now. Hope to se WI 248/7 at stumps when i wake up. Cheers!


rain all day for mine

Report detraveller January 4, 2016 11:23 PM GMT
Im sure they havent bothered calling the teams from their hotels(like they did in bangalore)
Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:26 PM GMT

Jan 4, 2016 -- 11:23PM, detraveller wrote:


Im sure they havent bothered calling the teams from their hotels(like they did in bangalore)


as per cricinfo they are starting at 10.45amLaugh

Report jucel69 January 4, 2016 11:29 PM GMT
10:20am: The rain has got heavier.
Report pxb January 4, 2016 11:56 PM GMT
Tomorrow looks just as bad.
Report ada January 4, 2016 11:58 PM GMT
So hands up. Who laid at 1.4 lol
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 12:07 AM GMT

Jan 4, 2016 -- 11:58PM, ada wrote:


So hands up. Who laid at 1.4 lol


Think I took your cash!

Report ada January 5, 2016 12:10 AM GMT
Why you lay it at 1.4 then??
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 12:19 AM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 12:10AM, ada wrote:


Why you lay it at 1.4 then??


no I was backing, misread your post

Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 12:20 AM GMT
Still 1.18 left. Great value considering the position of the game
Report pxb January 5, 2016 12:37 AM GMT
Yeh. Draw should be 1.05.

I think what happened was draw backers panicked when comms talked about play starting and they rushed for the exits at the same time. Unfortunately, I'd cancelled most of my bets, although got some small draw backs near 1.4
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 12:54 AM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 12:37AM, pxb wrote:


Yeh. Draw should be 1.05.I think what happened was draw backers panicked when comms talked about play starting and they rushed for the exits at the same time. Unfortunately, I'd cancelled most of my bets, although got some small draw backs near 1.4


I got as much as I could. Happy

Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 1:07 AM GMT
The market has no confidence in WI at all holding on for a draw even from this positionLaugh
Report slip5 January 5, 2016 3:58 AM GMT
playing starting in 10 minutes its sunny now and they will get 50 overs bowled today Surprised
Report slip5 January 5, 2016 3:58 AM GMT
only joking Grin
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 4:05 AM GMT
stumps
Report pxb January 5, 2016 4:41 AM GMT
Need to keep an eye on the radar tomorrow. Will be a big area of rain off the coast, which may/will affect Sydney to some extent.
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 5:01 AM GMT
I've cashed out again. People will start imaging all sorts of scenarios where Aus win. Like earlier the draw shot from 1.16 to 1.4 with just the hint of play.
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 5:01 AM GMT
Probably see 1.2 again soonCrazy
Report pxb January 5, 2016 5:32 AM GMT
1.12 is too big IMO, but you are right. If we get play first thing tomorrow draw will go out quite a bit.

I'll go green on Aus.
Report pxb January 5, 2016 5:33 AM GMT
After the afternoon BoM forecast.
Report pxb January 5, 2016 5:40 AM GMT
Bom now forecasting rain most of tomorrow.

Lumped on 1.12. Should be 1.06 by tomorrow morning.
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 5:41 AM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 5:33AM, pxb wrote:


After the afternoon BoM forecast.


Just seen it, expecting another 25 mm tomorrowLaugh 1.01 nap once that filters through

Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 5:41 AM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 5:40AM, pxb wrote:


Bom now forecasting rain most of tomorrow.Lumped on 1.12. Should be 1.06 by tomorrow morning.


me too got 1.11

Report pxb January 5, 2016 5:43 AM GMT
Must have beat you to it by seconds.
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 5:50 AM GMT
That's going to be a big shock to people who thought Wed/Thurs was going to be clear.
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 5:52 AM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 5:50AM, jucel69 wrote:


That's going to be a big shock to people who thought Wed/Thurs was going to be clear.


Especially Aus backers in England who are probably still sleeping

Report Charkitz January 5, 2016 7:29 AM GMT
Yep $1.08 looks huge now with new forecast. I've basically given up on my Oz back bet.

Ah well, still think it was a good bet, just unlucky the LOW hung around for an extra day. I still reckon Oz would've won this with 6 sessions + extra overs. They'll struggle to win it in 3 sessions lol
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 7:52 AM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 7:29AM, Charkitz wrote:


Yep $1.08 looks huge now with new forecast. I've basically given up on my Oz back bet. Ah well, still think it was a good bet, just unlucky the LOW hung around for an extra day. I still reckon Oz would've won this with 6 sessions + extra overs. They'll struggle to win it in 3 sessions lol


For sure, if there were 200 overs left & a good forecast I would be backing Oz too.

Report detraveller January 5, 2016 3:54 PM GMT
Take a look at the radar now. Massive clouds and the SCG right at the centre of it. Hope everyone's fine out there.
Report pxb January 5, 2016 4:08 PM GMT
Any play day 4 looks v unlikely.

I don't know why the draw is at 1.07. Only an innings forfeiture could produce a result and that has a tainted history.
Report detraveller January 5, 2016 5:55 PM GMT
What do you guys think? The draw at 1.03 now. is it a good idea to cash out now and back the draw later at the end of day 4(or start of day 5) when it could increase to 1.1+? Could that happen when the skies become clearer and there is some play?
Report pxb January 5, 2016 6:03 PM GMT
Cash out. We have already seen how Test match markets can over react to weather.
Report pxb January 5, 2016 6:04 PM GMT
I don't expect to see 1.1 again, but who knows?
Report detraveller January 5, 2016 8:00 PM GMT
Aus play for 45 ovrs and reach Windies first innings score. Then put Windies in for the remaining 45 overs. Still not enough for a win but enough for the market to panic a bit?
If the outfield doesn't require too much work, we could get some overs in today evening. I am thinking about cashing out now but not sure...
Report nigelpm1 January 5, 2016 8:57 PM GMT
no harm laying 1.03 for fun - in case we get a move like y'day.
Report detraveller January 5, 2016 9:09 PM GMT
How much time do they normally need in sydney to get the game going after a consistent 8-9 hours of rain? Anyone knows?
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 10:03 PM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 8:57PM, nigelpm1 wrote:


no harm laying 1.03 for fun - in case we get a move like y'day.


tbf it wasn't raining this time yesterday (even though more rain was on the way), pissing down at the SCG right now.
Cricinfo was also ramping play & gave a start time of 10.45amLaugh

Report nigelpm1 January 5, 2016 10:07 PM GMT
very true.  Market is often nuts though.
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 10:09 PM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 10:07PM, nigelpm1 wrote:


very true.

Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 10:12 PM GMT
Not one spectator at the ground
Report nigelpm1 January 5, 2016 10:16 PM GMT
Doubt there was yesterday either
Report jucel69 January 5, 2016 10:18 PM GMT

Jan 5, 2016 -- 10:16PM, nigelpm1 wrote:


Doubt there was yesterday either


Yeh there were quite a few yesterday as it was the "Pink" day for Jane Mcgrath.

Report nigelpm1 January 5, 2016 10:23 PM GMT
fair enough.  based on that the 1.03 is near as damn it free money
Report detraveller January 5, 2016 10:45 PM GMT
How about Smith declares the first Aus innings and ask WI to bat? And then let Warner loose on the WI?
Report detraveller January 5, 2016 11:03 PM GMT
Why are there always 4 men standing around the covers at each corner?
Report pxb January 6, 2016 12:55 AM GMT
Indications this might clear by mid-afternoon. 60mm of rain since yesterday will make the ground soaked.
Report jucel69 January 6, 2016 1:39 AM GMT
They should call today off and stop wasting people's time. There is still hours of rain left on the radar.
Report Esox January 6, 2016 2:07 AM GMT
stumps day 4 abandoned.
Report jucel69 January 6, 2016 2:14 AM GMT
common sense prevails
Report jucel69 January 6, 2016 2:19 AM GMT
Amazed there is any 1.01 left tbh
Report jucel69 January 6, 2016 2:51 AM GMT
Cleared all my reds away on Aus/WI and equalised the greens. I don't want any nagging doubts lingering in my mind about some crazy stuff tomorrow. Now if it happens I can react positively to it, rather than panic!
Report pxb January 6, 2016 5:44 AM GMT
I'll go all green as well.

Could well be a bit of rain around at 10:30 and a delayed start, but no downside left in the draw. I'm pretty certain we won't see anything funky and they will bat out a draw.
Report aston January 6, 2016 2:22 PM GMT
Testing
Report aston January 6, 2016 2:27 PM GMT
Im hoping for another washout today/tonight(Im in England) Ive winning on here if no more runs but I have also bought the runs with spreadex when they were on the first rain break. That bet will be void if there is no more play in that innings.
Report nigelpm1 January 6, 2016 8:12 PM GMT
can't work out why WI innings runs over 250 is 1.28 - only £26 but looks pretty safe.
Report nigelpm1 January 6, 2016 8:12 PM GMT
no washout today.  some initial rain but clear otherwise
Report gnashersblackpool January 6, 2016 9:03 PM GMT
danger is they might engineer a game. ie declare both teams ist innings wi bat for 6 or 7 ovs score 75/100 and set aus 350 in 90 overs.
Report nigelpm1 January 6, 2016 9:07 PM GMT
not going to happen
Report jucel69 January 6, 2016 9:08 PM GMT

Jan 6, 2016 -- 9:03PM, gnashersblackpool wrote:


danger is they might engineer a game. ie declare both teams ist innings wi bat for 6 or 7 ovs score 75/100 and set aus 350 in 90 overs.


That's the only reason why Aus are still only 150/1. The Hail Mary backers are the only ones left.

Report aston January 6, 2016 9:10 PM GMT
No thats not going to happen but if the Aussies can knock the first 3 over in the first half an hour and Warner goes bezerk they might try to get ahead before tea, declare and try and hope for a calypso collapso. Mind you that would require a full days play.
Report jucel69 January 6, 2016 9:13 PM GMT

Jan 6, 2016 -- 9:10PM, aston wrote:


No thats not going to happen but if the Aussies can knock the first 3 over in the first half an hour and Warner goes bezerk they might try to get ahead before tea, declare and try and hope for a calypso collapso. Mind you that would require a full days play.


We are all starting to get into fantasy world scenarios where Aus skittle WI, then score 400 off 40 overs and bowl WI out 2nd dig in 40 overs.

Report nigelpm1 January 6, 2016 9:13 PM GMT
yup, that's the only scenario - might be around 150/1.
Report nigelpm1 January 6, 2016 9:18 PM GMT
potentially 98 overs so :  wipe out WI in first 8 for 20 runs.  Bat for 50 overs and score 350.  Skittle WI out in 30 overs, chase in final 10.  highly unlikely but draw might just go 1.1x on some of that coming off.
Report jucel69 January 6, 2016 9:20 PM GMT
full covers still on at the moment

https://www.sydneycricketground.com.au/venues/webcams/scg-cam/
Report nigelpm1 January 6, 2016 9:21 PM GMT
would be, there's some rain about.
Report nigelpm1 January 6, 2016 9:43 PM GMT
covers rolling off now
Report nigelpm1 January 6, 2016 10:18 PM GMT
delayed start - well and truly done now.
Report detraveller January 7, 2016 12:21 AM GMT
Play starts shortly. Hope they dont do anything funny since i want to sit on my draw bet till the end.
Report detraveller January 7, 2016 12:24 AM GMT
Shane Warne on Instagram: Play starts at 1145am.... Will the Windies declare ? Then Aussies declare 0/0 and Windies set a target ??? Hope so !!!!! Join us on Ch 9
Report slip5 January 7, 2016 12:25 AM GMT
west indies might has well make a game out of it
Report detraveller January 7, 2016 12:31 AM GMT

Jan 6, 2016 -- 8:12PM, nigelpm1 wrote:


can't work out why WI innings runs over 250 is 1.28 - only £26 but looks pretty safe.


because:
1) WI might declare to make a game of it
2) We might not get any play at all

In both cases the bet is NOT void.

Report wondersobright January 7, 2016 12:45 AM GMT
WI going for a draw lol...enjoy it coz you wont be back for the boxing day and new year tests for a generation
Report wondersobright January 7, 2016 12:47 AM GMT
what is the point ffs
declare, then aus declare, then WI smash a quick 100 and set aus 350 to win off 65 overs
chance to take something meaningful out of a woeful tour for them
otherwise fck off home
Report Foinavon January 7, 2016 12:48 AM GMT
Had to green up against any shenanigans, goes against the grain backing WI even at big odds but...
Report detraveller January 7, 2016 12:51 AM GMT

Jan 7, 2016 -- 12:47AM, wondersobright wrote:


what is the point ffsdeclare, then aus declare, then WI smash a quick 100 and set aus 350 to win off 65 overschance to take something meaningful out of a woeful tour for themotherwise fck off home


They gave you free mone on the draw. What else do you want? If you are looking for cricket, you are watching the wrong series.

Report wondersobright January 7, 2016 12:54 AM GMT
yeah I should be grateful for small mercies
Report slip5 January 7, 2016 1:11 AM GMT
not possible for west indies to lose surely have a bowl now
Report pxb January 7, 2016 1:17 AM GMT
Still a road.
Report pxb January 7, 2016 2:05 AM GMT
Warne can be amusing, but a lot of the time he should STFU.
Report jucel69 January 7, 2016 3:39 AM GMT

Jan 7, 2016 -- 2:05AM, pxb wrote:


Warne can be amusing, but a lot of the time he should STFU.


Embarrassing, I turned off after the first 20 mins or so. Moaning about WI not setting the game up & then some ludicrous scenarios about how Aus could winCrazy.
WI could only lose if they set something remotely attainable, as their attack is so weak.

Report jucel69 January 7, 2016 5:22 AM GMT
Can't believe they are still playing
Report jucel69 January 7, 2016 7:01 PM GMT
Smithy tried set something up, would definitely have stirred the market!

http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia-v-west-indies-2015-16/content/story/959157.html
Report Fatslogger January 8, 2016 12:04 AM GMT
Hmm, glad that didn't happen, as I failed to green out. A WI win would have been especially painful, although with their attack I can see why Holder declined the offer.
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