Cricket
A few showers forecast, but matches in SAF don't usually go to a draw and I don't expect this one to.
I'd like a better price than 3.05 on Eng and look to get it at the toss, which shouldn't make much difference.
Dec 29, 2015 -- 1:49PM, mayburydrr wrote:
Bet of the century was laying SA anything under 4/1 after their fast start and bet of the year is on England now around 1.3 - an absolute gift. should be 1.15 absolute max
Nah bet of the century was laying the draw in the 3 completed games in India. Then backing the draw in the second game when it rained for 4 days 
I'm not sure I can keep looking at 1.3 England and not go red at least on the draw by backing it for £500. I'll regret not doing it but am already winning the most I've ever won on a bet by a factor of about 4 on England.
Dec 29, 2015 -- 2:03PM, detraveller wrote:
Bet of the century is laying Trump for president, if such a bet exists.
Oh it does. I'm huge red on the mouth foaming crazy for Republican nominee. He refuses to lie down and die a rabid death though and actually keeps shortening.
SA won't fancy getting 275 on Day 5.
It'll be an attempted 6 and a half hour block.
Dec 29, 2015 -- 3:20PM, slip5 wrote:
du plussies playing for draw
I have observed that In such chases that is what SA normally do. Duplessis always comes out with a blockathon mindset while the rest play around him. Thats the SA policy and makes sense. He is not playing for a draw. He is just playing to NOT give his wicket away.
what's up with you AB
you're an awesome batsman
what are you worrying about your barnet for?
Been a good result though
or would have been!
England started off their innings at 1.34 which was big anyway, but now they have 4 wickets 1.24 looks massive!
DV will need to bat 3 sessions with 1 or 2 of the other middle order for england not to win. England bowlers looking dangerous, especially Finn with that extra bounce. Can see this being all over in the first session tomorrow.
I make England about 1.1 at the most.
Dec 29, 2015 -- 6:46PM, penbud wrote:
eng at the close 1.22 now 1.28 market in denial eng a great price fillurboots
Wow, Jesus, did they unlose a wicket? I think England would be a more than reasonable bet at 1.28 if SA 3 down. I'm seriously tempted to put a grand on that, despite it more than wiping out my green on other outcomes than the England win.
Dec 29, 2015 -- 7:49PM, pxb wrote:
SAF have a history of saving tests by batting long day 5, including by Duminy. But he has been terrible lately. If you were just looking at stats, you'd give SAF a decent chance of getting the draw.
Really? I know there have been some fantastic rear guard actions from them but 4 is an awful lot of wickets to be going in to day 5 down. I'm not sure how to search for corroboration but wouldn't be surprised to discover that it's 1 in 20 or fewer.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia-v-south-africa-2012/engine/match/573008.html
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/648665.html
Agree that a few overs ticking by without a wicket will bring the draw in but it's pretty likely a wicket will fall early on. It may not be a procession but SA would need to get to lunch for the loss of Steyn at most to have any realistic prospects, I'd suggest.
1. SA are already 4 down and Steyn will have a slog probably sooner rather than later
2. many of their remaining bats are out of form
3. England can keep quicks fresh as Moin will bowl one end and be a constant threat on a 5 day pitch
4. Cook can keep attacking fields (well as much as Cook does) all day
5. England will get a new cherry in 33 overs-probably the most important point
personally cant see the draw price contracting for a long time even if no wickets initially
only SA +ve is ABdV and he is already knackered thru keeping wicket
http://www.accuweather.com/en/za/durban/305605/daily-weather-forecast/305605?day=1
Something to keep in mind
Dec 30, 2015 -- 8:03AM, sageform wrote:
Great start. Over by lunchtime now so more money to back horses with later.
I did put a bit on the draw overnight but nothing major
graeme smith saying Capetown is a SA fortress
well u'd better get those drawbridges well up,dude
been impressed with Eng here
looking ok w/o jimmy
maybe he could upset the dynamics
Dec 30, 2015 -- 9:41AM, johnnythebull wrote:
ur a shrewdie..juce
Wrong thread That was for the BBL
Cook needs to get runs in Capetown
Dec 30, 2015 -- 10:09AM, johnnythebull wrote:
just scraped in on the last ball, lucky tbf
(Woakes, Cook, Hales and Stokes missing out)
Anderson for Woakes is an easy enough replacement. Finn showing once again that he's able to produce the odd jaffa with an old ball on a tired surface: the du plessis dismissal was a massive 2nd innings break through.
I can easily see South Africa's batting clicking, but their bowling is a real concern. Cod Mornay may put in the odd good spell, but it's not enough with Steyn gone. England may well have to get themselves out at Capetown to give the Proteas a decent chance of victory.
incidentally, when was the last time england won their first match in an away series?
Likely at some point that England will have a big collapse or two, the batting is still pretty inexperienced but good to see the less heralded players standing up and getting runs in this game. Question is whether SA can get enough runs to capitalise on any England frailty.
Dec 30, 2015 -- 11:31AM, Only-the-Brave wrote:
England just the better side right now - SA clearly in decline. It's De Villiers or nothing more often than not, and the added responsibility of the gloves clearly affects his game. Faf and Amla in awful touch, with the rest of the side very average. Tail is very long, no real all-rounder - I don't see them winning a test.
I wouldn't entirely disagree with this assessment and England won this test very handily. I'd be sceptical of assuming that SA will continue to get a pasting all series though. Missing Steyn would be a major disadvantage but even without him the attack is decent enough, England's batting hasn't gone from flaky to great in one test even if two of the new boys did well and there remains enough class in the SA batting to get big scores as long as Amla can find some form and AB go big rather than moderately big. I'm not rushing to back England at 2.4 for the second test, that's for sure. I am a bit interested in laying the draw though.
A win is a win but I need to take a long hard look at myself! I said in commentary very early in the match this was one of those open goals and I missed it. I think slogger saw it too but was concerned as he was balls deep. I hope as you intimated you were on your biggest win that you nailed it.
Anyway looking forward I think the game us up to a degree for betting. England are by far the better side. I just hope that SA's proud record at Newlands gets the statto's backing SA again and if they do I hope to smash it!
Will probably do the same again for Cape Town, weather permitting. Would like to think England could make it 2-0 but still don't trust them not to mess it up.
one thing i will say from a personal pov is that short to medium term trades which are contrary to your outright opinions often bring misery.
i think it's best to either trade, ducking in and out and leveling up, or sticking with one or two outright opinions. Too many opinions muddles decision making and it becomes harder to work out when you're wrong.
Must be quite rare for such a sudden change int he odds after one Test. Weren't the Aussies favourites in every match last Summer or am I mistaken??
Re the match itself, we didn't need Cook or Jimmy. We didn't even miss Wood. Our deep batting lineup proved useful (Broad's vital partnership with Finn for example). Our new number 3 was brilliant, on Day 1 especially.
Taylor was class. Root ditto (of course).
Moeen Man of the Match? I would have given it to Elgar I think. A rare achievement indeed.
I got a little sucked in and I am not really a trader like a number of the guys here trading the draw. I should stick to what I am good at! No harm done just a huge opportunity missed when I should have gone nuts deep. I shall remember your advice.
I won't be jumping on England at Newlands as a backlash either. Will wait and see. The rules of the game still apply. Rabadabado could be just as dangerous as Steyn on a grassy wicket.
England do actually look like a decent outfit I must say. I hope Hales takes his chance. I am not sure he is best equipped for Test Cricket but he adds an interesting dynamic to this England side.
Dec 30, 2015 -- 3:49PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:
On the plus side I called this impeccably from before the off with SA lay @2.2 and then backed England ave 4.69 on day 1, took some draw cover and was sitting pretty but somehow managed to end up with an even green for half the profit with Finn's late wicket!A win is a win but I need to take a long hard look at myself! I said in commentary very early in the match this was one of those open goals and I missed it. I think slogger saw it too but was concerned as he was balls deep. I hope as you intimated you were on your biggest win that you nailed it.Anyway looking forward I think the game us up to a degree for betting. England are by far the better side. I just hope that SA's proud record at Newlands gets the statto's backing SA again and if they do I hope to smash it!
I'm very pleased with my efforts this test, going in with big draw lays and getting more draw every time it went under 3, although I spoiled things a bit by covering the draw for £500 at 4.1 after the 3rd day and for £250 at 8.2 before today started. The former I did for safety, although I don't think I had to and the latter I did thinking I could lay back off, possibly even before play started but didn't work out that way and wasn't really very sensible, as unlike a lot of trades, it was unlikely to come back my way if it started badly. Suppose both were fair enough insurance though and I still won 3k, when I don't think I've even won 1k on anything before.
I was lucky with the Compton Taylor partnership after I stuffed up my huge non draw green by backing the draw hard around a rain interval. Getting on England at 5.3 during that worked very nicely indeed, as did a SA lay later on as advised by someone on here (thanks and will have to check who it actually was). Other than that I was just draw trading really. Anyway, England did me proud, despite my rather negative comments about the side going in.
Too true, and I speak as someone who does it regularly. I always like to go into a day with a first session trading position. Keeps me interested.
And note I called SAF's batting woes in the OP based on their performances in India. Can't see it getting any better in CT.
One interesting thing for me this test is that while I felt SA had significant flaws as a side, I didn't rate England's chances going in and even reckoning draw pretty unlikely wouldn't have taken them at 4s. The market was very slow to recognise England as being in the game and equally slow to recognise domination once the legendary Broad had destroyed the SA top order batting. It was even desperate to see SA back in contention having knocked off a piffling proportion of the run chase without loss and a not much more significant amount for one down.
Also interesting that this misplaced faith has completely evaporated for the second test.
Dec 30, 2015 -- 9:35PM, Fatslogger wrote:
Point about not confusing your trades with your underlying views is a good one yes. Also you need to know your jumping off points. There's no way I should have been backing the draw at 8.2 even looking to lay it back off this morning, as I was pretty much totally confident in the England win and yes, SA could have got 20 overs in for loss of Steyn and I'd have profited but was never going to be big because I was only going to let it ride down to 7 or so anyway. TBF, would have worked nicely if I'd got it matched back again at 7.4 before play even started, which I briefly might have done. One interesting thing for me this test is that while I felt SA had significant flaws as a side, I didn't rate England's chances going in and even reckoning draw pretty unlikely wouldn't have taken them at 4s. The market was very slow to recognise England as being in the game and equally slow to recognise domination once the legendary Broad had destroyed the SA top order batting. It was even desperate to see SA back in contention having knocked off a piffling proportion of the run chase without loss and a not much more significant amount for one down. Also interesting that this misplaced faith has completely evaporated for the second test.
I rarely think about the final result until there are only 2 results possible. Up until then I try to manipulate the relationship between the 3 results. There is almost always value in one of the three, that's why I love test cricket. It's the only sport where you can guarantee long term profits if you know what you are doing.
Dec 30, 2015 -- 10:45PM, slip5 wrote:
mccullum leaves a big hole in this batting lineup
Probably not this batting line up, to be honest.
Anybody missing Billy Bell ?
Dec 30, 2015 -- 11:05PM, pxb wrote:
Taylor especially. I really liked the look of him when he played here in Oz when the rest except Root looked mediocre.
I quite like Taylor and Compton wasn't by any means the worst player to have opened for England in the last three years but it's not like either of them made compelling cases for retention in their first stints in the side. That Taylor didn't get back in sooner is a bit odd but he wasn't consistent in the last county season, which probably counted against him.
30 Dec 15 22:23
Joined: 03 Aug 12
I rarely think about the final result until there are only 2 results possible. Up until then I try to manipulate the relationship between the 3 results. There is almost always value in one of the three.
...That's roughly my tactic too. I don't take a polarised view i.e. 'this CANNOT be a draw' or SA have NO chance'. SA traded in the 20s when England were piling on a lead but later traded at 3s. They were very, very likely to lose but the market disagreed and there's the opportunity. At 20s they were a lay with my cricket hat on but a back with market knowledge.
I look to combine cricket knowledge with an awareness of how the market is reacting. Often the two oppose each other and that's where it can be tricky but also rewarding.I t can often be best to leave cricket knowledge to one side and just focus on the numbers.
In a contest between 2 good sides all 3 outcomes can trade higher and lower so there's opportunities on each of the 3 prices, often several times over. The result (from a betting perspective) is an irrelevance.
