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pxb
17 Nov 15 21:17
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 8,019 | Blogger: pxb's blog
I must admit I'm somewhat unsure as to the betting implications of the pink ball. It has produced early wickets under lights in Starc's hands, but that could happen with any coloured ball. There have been complaints about it's deterioration, but that seems to be a problem with all Kookaburras at the mo.

I've read that colour has no effect the physical characteristics of the ball, and reports of it behaving differently under lights are caused by dew (which shouldn't be a problem in Adelaide).

All in all, I think we may see more wickets, just from playing under lights. And is bad light no longer a factor?
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Report jucel69 November 27, 2015 6:20 AM GMT
backed at 6.2 & greened up at 4s
Report jucel69 November 27, 2015 6:20 AM GMT
I fancy NZ will bowl well on here
Report Fatslogger November 27, 2015 6:24 AM GMT
Too greedy with my lays which almost got matched after lunch and when I moved them up after the third wicket but only got a bit of 5s layed so still small red on results, large green draw, which isn't really where you want to be.
Report pxb November 27, 2015 6:24 AM GMT
If they bowl with the new ball under lights could be interesting.
Report jucel69 November 27, 2015 6:25 AM GMT
having a juicy punt on nz now.
Report jucel69 November 27, 2015 6:27 AM GMT
Aus are not very good against the swinging ball.
Report pxb November 27, 2015 6:29 AM GMT
I'd feel a lot better about NZ chances if Boult was in form.
Report jucel69 November 27, 2015 6:31 AM GMT
He's had plenty of bowling in the last few games. If he see it swing it will get his juices flowing again!
Report the whizz kids November 27, 2015 6:39 AM GMT
Draw looks done in my eyes. Any team hitting around the 200 mark in the first innings is worth a punt as a trading point of view. N.Z could be around the 6/7 to 1 area IF they hit that. We could see some massive swings in this one boys.
Report jucel69 November 27, 2015 8:51 AM GMT
physio fielding for Aus w t fLaugh
Report Mike-lfc November 27, 2015 9:14 AM GMT
no sound. Why is Siddle getting clapped off?
Report jucel69 November 27, 2015 9:37 AM GMT
beauty!
Report jucel69 November 27, 2015 9:37 AM GMT

Nov 27, 2015 -- 9:14AM, Mike-lfc wrote:


no sound. Why is Siddle getting clapped off?


200 test match wickets

Report Foinavon November 27, 2015 10:33 AM GMT
Doesn't look bad with only another 6 overs to go, have reduced NZ exposure by 25%.
Aus should tuck in tomorrow.
Report Fatslogger November 27, 2015 10:42 AM GMT
Hmm, did as jucel suggested and had a bit of NZ at 7.6, which worked a bit better than my draw trading. Don't think the nearly £1k draw green I have is likely to come in that useful but am tempted to buy at bit more if I can get it over 21. Not that I think it will be a draw but would go nicely with my NZ green, assuming the draw will actually shorten significantly if Australia manages to get a decent first innings total, which you have to assume it will.
Report Foinavon November 27, 2015 10:50 AM GMT
I still have some green on the draw which I've written off for now. Only had it as a precaution after the WACA heads up which cost me. Was OTT on NZ red overnight so reduced it to more manageable levels.
Draw might come in but don't expect too much in view of NZ poor first innings total.
Report Fatslogger November 27, 2015 10:56 AM GMT
No, agree, problem for the draw is that if Aus do badly it can only go out but it can't come in too much until NZ bat again and obviously only then if they bat really well. It's floating at around 19 now, which doesn't appeal at all as a back but seems a bit high for a lay, even with a lot of green to play with.
Report pxb November 27, 2015 1:48 PM GMT
Nothing really appeals here. 54/2 isn't a great start, but not a bad one either. I don't expect the pitch to deteriorate much even by day 5.

I want get rid of my NZ red just on general principle, but 6s looks too short and I'd want a bigger price.

Winviz has draw at 0.45%, but I can't bring myself to lay a big priced draw this early in the match.

There's always India.
Report Foinavon November 27, 2015 2:22 PM GMT
Run rate dropped noticeably during the night session so 54/2 probably better than it looks. Wonder if the slow RR will be repeated in all third sessions.
Expect Aus to bat through day 2 and provided NZ don't collapse we might see the draw in single figures at some stage. This is wishful thinking of course as I want to lay off my draw green at a better price but shall wait and see. Happy with the green I have left on Aus, don't think NZ capable of winning from here.
Report Fatslogger November 27, 2015 5:51 PM GMT
Still don't think this Aus side is all that, especially if Starc is impaired or unable to bowl second innings. It's a fairly strong match state for them though so I too struggle to see a NZ win, barring a wonder spell first up from Boult.
Report Fatslogger November 27, 2015 5:58 PM GMT
Oh, Starc has a stress fracture. Think that changes things a bit, with the Aussie attack a whole load weaker without him, not just because he's the best, most penetrating bowler and the best user of swing but also because they look a bit unbalanced without him. Marsh isn't terrible, but he's a much better fit for fourth than third seamer. Draw's come in quite a bit since the close of play, although NZ drifted out a bit if anything. Hmm, my draw may not be totally wasted green after all.
Report Whisperingdeath November 27, 2015 6:27 PM GMT
Starc obviously a huge loss but maybe Lyon will lead the attack in the second innings.
Report tyco161 November 27, 2015 9:22 PM GMT
Interesting format with a lot more tactics now. NZ for instance get the second new ball in 58 overs time which sort of coincides with the evening session.... when the ball tends to hoop around from what we saw last night. So there are a lot more things to consider when batting, (ie declare early as a possibility to take advantage of conditions) than the traditional day test match. Could see some really interesting betting patterns emerge. Almost tempted to back draw to lay before tea as the pitch looked a lot more placid 1st session than it did 3rd. Nicely set up at this stage, if NZ can chip out a couple more and with Starc gone could still make for an interesting match.
Report Fatslogger November 27, 2015 10:26 PM GMT
Interesting post tyco. Problem for NZ is that if they've got to wait for the second new ball and the, is it called night session, to bowl them out then Aus will be a long way ahead by then. Even a Starc less Aussie attack should have enough that the at least 100 lead we'd see by then should be enough. Course, may not be great to have them all out by early in the final session either, giving the Aussie bowlers the best of the conditions.
Report pxb November 27, 2015 11:50 PM GMT
Without Starc, Aus need a good 1st innings lead. At least 100. 150 would better. And you'd have to say without Starc, Aus won't declare.

Agree with Tyco that the draw looks attractive at around 13.
Report pxb November 28, 2015 1:05 AM GMT
I've decided to green up. Without Starc, NZ may go big 2nd innings and we would then be looking at the match going into day 5 when batting could be difficult for Aus.
Report jucel69 November 28, 2015 5:33 AM GMT
What a morningGrin
Report BJT November 28, 2015 6:01 AM GMT
Looked clearly out to me.  Looked like a deflection without the hot spot and snicko.
Report pxb November 28, 2015 6:07 AM GMT
Nothing on snicko, which means there wouldn't have a hotspot mark from the ball.
Report jucel69 November 28, 2015 6:31 AM GMT
Dreadful captaincy from Mccullum. Last night and today have been abysmal.
Report BJT November 28, 2015 6:31 AM GMT
But there was a hotspot.  And it looked like it moved off the bat.  Why didn't it have snicko?  No idea.
The decision was enough to convince everybody it was out.  Except the one person in charge.  Lyon was at the boundary.
Report BJT November 28, 2015 7:06 AM GMT
lol  Smashing..
Report pxb November 28, 2015 7:11 AM GMT
NZ going to be batting under lights with a newish ball.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 7:58 AM GMT
NZ 22/0 in 2nd innings. Line for NZ runs is 288.5 runs
Report Fatslogger November 28, 2015 8:26 AM GMT
Not sure whether being about to bat under lights balances out loss of Starc or not. The market clearly anticipates batting under lights being tough and wickets falling, given that scores are level and Aus still 1.78. Oh no, my bad, Betfair Australia markets seem to behave very oddly in the app. It had just frozen.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:34 AM GMT
Interesting stat: The last time an Adelaide Test contained 2 1st innings scores of under 250 was back in 1994
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:35 AM GMT
correction it was 1992
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:54 AM GMT
OUT
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:54 AM GMT
the edge
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:54 AM GMT
went quickly to Mitch Marsh too
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:54 AM GMT
now much movement for Aussie odds, 2.16 into 1.83
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:56 AM GMT
A Good Length/Full length on this wicket will cause trouble.......i think Australia have identified that
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:57 AM GMT
Think Channel 9 showed the pitch map of the wickets, 15 of the 20 wickets have been in that zone
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 8:57 AM GMT
Day 2 attendance: 40,102
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:06 AM GMT
OUT
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:06 AM GMT
2 Down
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:06 AM GMT
Hazlewood the man of the moment
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:08 AM GMT
NZ in effectively 10/2
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:10 AM GMT
44444444444444 Chinese Cut from Kane Williamson
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:11 AM GMT
Lucy Liu would have been proud of that shot
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:13 AM GMT
Feel like seamers are always in with a chance with a wicket every delivery here, especially in the last sessions in these day-night matches
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:14 AM GMT
Think if you play another Day-Night test , you have to play possibly 4 quicks and a spinner. Australia have chosen 3 quicks , medium pacer and a spinner
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:14 AM GMT
Voges drops a catch
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:18 AM GMT
New Zealand will target the weak link, Mitchell Marsh
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:19 AM GMT
Mitch Marsh and Shaun Marsh went to Wesley, so they must be weak
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:19 AM GMT
4444444444444444444444444444444444444444
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:22 AM GMT
Lay Australia whenever the Marsh brothers are batting or bowling, worst set of twins to ever represent Australia
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:29 AM GMT
OUT
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:29 AM GMT
Mitch Marsh gets a wicket, I may have jinxed him
Report BJT November 28, 2015 9:31 AM GMT
Fcuked this one right up...  ffs
Report kt22 November 28, 2015 9:31 AM GMT

Nov 28, 2015 -- 9:19AM, West Coast Eagles wrote:


Mitch Marsh and Shaun Marsh went to Wesley, so they must be weak


Surprised you didn't call them silver spoons.Maybe with a bit more motivation you could improve your position. Constantly denigrating those who work hard for what they have is so boring.

Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:41 AM GMT
Just a bit of banter, alot of the PSA schools rubbed it in me back in my younger years. I think your right though, I should move on.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:42 AM GMT
I'll chuck Rossmoyne kids in there as well
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:43 AM GMT
They live in their own little world the PSA kids, think it still effects my mentally up until today.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:44 AM GMT
Decision REVIEW
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:45 AM GMT
NOT OUT
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:51 AM GMT
13.2 overs left in the day
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:51 AM GMT
Mitch Marsh drops a catch
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:52 AM GMT
Australia's massage therapist is fielding as a substitute fielder
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:58 AM GMT
OUT
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 9:59 AM GMT
Challenge from McCullum
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 10:00 AM GMT
4 Down
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 10:16 AM GMT
OUT 5 down
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 10:16 AM GMT
Hazlewood with his 3rd
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 10:16 AM GMT
Plum as you can get
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 10:17 AM GMT
This wicket is getting harder and harder to bat on.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 10:39 AM GMT
Smith drops his 2nd catch of the innings
Report Foinavon November 28, 2015 10:47 AM GMT
Wow, was close to being in deep doo-doo overnight. Rescued by the Aussie tail.
Have taken the opportunity to reduce exposure to NZ by some more as you never know what will happen tomorrow. My Aussie green is looking a bit slim compared with day 1 but better that than facing a big loss.
Report Fatslogger November 28, 2015 11:04 AM GMT
Am slightly red on Aus as part of my pattern of being a bit greedy this test. I could easily have closed out for small green if I'd just converted some NZ green when Aus back able at 2.1 or so but thought the price would move quickly if wickets didn't fall early in the night session. It might well have done but we didn't get to find out. Not as frustrating as my work with the huge draw green I've had though.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 11:07 AM GMT
Get the feeling if NZ could nudge this lead to around 150 tomorrow, they have some chance of winning this. 17 wickets have fallen during the 2nd and 3rd sessions alone. Best time to bat in this game has been the 1st session. The game should end tomorrow but can see some similar parallels to the match in Hobart when NZ beat Australia after defending 110 on that deck.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 11:10 AM GMT
I'm also not sold on this Aussie batting attack , under lights, a lot of these batsman are playing for their careers/relatively inexperienced at this level , bar Warner and Steve Smith in the Top 7, the Aussie top order is there for the taking.
Report Fatslogger November 28, 2015 11:23 AM GMT
I wouldn't rule NZ out but too high a chance of subsiding for very few runs tomorrow morning and not getting near the evening session with a newish ball to take advantage of the best conditions for bowling. If they manage to survive into the second session then it starts to look interesting though.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 11:28 AM GMT
Agree , NZ probably need to bat the best part of a minimum of 32-35 overs to make a game of it tomorrow and try to eek out every run possible.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 11:30 AM GMT
80-85 runs off the 32-35 overs would be what NZ would want coming into tomorrow, anything more would be a bonus. Australia would rightfully start favourites in a chase anything under 175 though.
Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 11:32 AM GMT

Nov 28, 2015 -- 11:07AM, West Coast Eagles wrote:


Get the feeling if NZ could nudge this lead to around 150 tomorrow, they have some chance of winning this. 17 wickets have fallen during the 2nd and 3rd sessions alone. Best time to bat in this game has been the 1st session. The game should end tomorrow but can see some similar parallels to the match in Hobart when NZ beat Australia after defending 110 on that deck.


I also take back my comment on this match, NZ were defending 240 runs......and ended up winning by 7 runs. http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/current/match/518948.html From memory, Aus hit 1.02 in that run chase.

Report West Coast Eagles November 28, 2015 11:33 AM GMT
Australia needed 111 with 9 wickets in hand and bottled it.......Aussies never been the best at 4th innings run chases
Report pxb November 28, 2015 4:43 PM GMT
I don't expect NZ to last to lunch and Australia chasing less than 200. That still means they will have to bat the night session.

Said yesterday I would green up yesterday. Voges wicket stopped that, and went thru the day with substantial reds in several markets, but will for sure today.
Report pxb November 28, 2015 5:21 PM GMT
Australia only lost 2 when batting at night against the new ball, then fell apart in the day. So runs in the day and wickets at night is far from certain. I expect Aus top order to put on around 100 for 1 or 2, before batting in the last session. But expectations of wickets at night will stop Aus shortening appreciably.
Report detraveller November 28, 2015 5:30 PM GMT
Yes I dont know why everyone is saying wickets will fall at night when on the first day NZ lost 7 before night and Australia collapsed miserably during the second day. Aus batted really well on the first evening under lights. Mitchel Starc may have made a difference though.

If NZ manage to get the lead pver 150, we have a great game on our hands.
Report Foinavon November 28, 2015 5:40 PM GMT
Am thinking of killing the last bit of red I have left on NZ which won't leave nearly enough green on Aus to pay my Sky subscription for December (should they do me the honour of winning that is).Crazy Don't want another net loss following on after Perth.
Was it worth all the risk of leaving positions open overnight? Perhaps not.
Report pxb November 28, 2015 7:38 PM GMT
While I expect NZ to be knocked over for a lead around 150, if they get the lead up toward 200, they will be in with a pretty good chance. Aus 1st innings does not fill me with confidence about their 2nd innings. And I don't want any red on NZ.
Report jucel69 November 29, 2015 7:39 AM GMT
More dreadful captaincy from Mccullum. Why oh why has he bowled Craig at all??
Report slip5 November 29, 2015 8:37 AM GMT
trent boult is world class bowler
Report slip5 November 29, 2015 8:37 AM GMT
New Zealand have a chance here this the night session the ball will be doing a lot
Report slip5 November 29, 2015 8:43 AM GMT

Nov 29, 2015 -- 7:39AM, jucel69 wrote:


More dreadful captaincy from Mccullum. Why oh why has he bowled Craig at all??


you cant blame mccullum for all new zealands problems

Report Whisperingdeath November 29, 2015 8:57 AM GMT
But Craig was not going to take a wicket or stop the flow of runs so what is the point?

Those 24 runs from Starc looking bigger and bigger all the time. At the time I thought it might be the difference in a low scoring match.

You are right though in that you can't blame MugCullum for NZ short comings
Report DStyle November 29, 2015 10:02 AM GMT
oh dear.

the match has reached a stage where that piece of moronic umpiring over lyon's edge may well have decided the outcome.
Report Whisperingdeath November 29, 2015 11:29 AM GMT
astonishing umpiring!

What we know is human error is human error! Might need a fifth umpire to say are you sure! In the Rugby World Cup that is what happened. Can't remember but the off field or on field ref kept saying are you sure lets have another look, lets try a different angle and eventually came up with the right decision. Llong was talking. The crowd could see. The onlfield umpire could have said take another look dude I can see it from here. Just like Zidane got sent off in the World Cup because the linesman saw his head butt on a TV monitor replay!

I was going to say the Coach should be able to launch a challenge but that is lunacy!

Cricket is one of those games where these things happen and we just have to accept it with good grace like MugCullum did and respect to him for that. Aus deserved to win but they got most of the close decisions plus that.

Nigel LlongWhoops!
Report slip5 November 29, 2015 11:52 AM GMT
Whispering how can you call mcullum a mug he one of the greats in cricket Crazy
Report Whisperingdeath November 29, 2015 6:31 PM GMT
slip,

I just like the name. I don't dislike him.
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