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Gabriel
12 Jun 15 07:45
Joined:
Date Joined: 06 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 70 | Blogger: Gabriel's blog
For those of you who wanting to invest on today's ODI between Eng v NZ, the game is very likely to be interrupted by heavy rain fall and therefore subject to the Duckworth Lewis Calculation.

IMHO Whoever wins the toss has to/will obtain an advantage and will go for a higher run rate to ensure they come out top when the rain puts a stop to play later in the day.
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Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:06 PM BST
Out of 1.05.
Report trader pj June 12, 2015 8:06 PM BST

Jun 12, 2015 -- 8:05PM, Charlie wrote:


Not sue but think England losing by quite a bit


I agree but we could do with numbers really

Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:07 PM BST
Very good comment.
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:09 PM BST
laid 1.04 small just in case jordans fit tobat
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:10 PM BST
GL.  Definitely no more bets for me.
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 8:11 PM BST
fair play to eng with their response
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:13 PM BST
sickof
out to 1.1 now
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:13 PM BST
if Jordan is fit to bet we all know he can hit a few lusty blows, even finn can lay bat on ball, so if these two can get em close its just about on
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:14 PM BST
I only laid 1.04 for 100 to improve my value
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:14 PM BST
GL.  Hope you win.
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:15 PM BST
great strike
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 8:15 PM BST
plunkett can bat
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:15 PM BST
Excited
Report YOMOMMA June 12, 2015 8:15 PM BST
****g hell another 2/3 overs like this and it is game on.
Report GRANTCKING June 12, 2015 8:16 PM BST
liam plunkett is on crack, NZ need a wicket fast!!
Report GRANTCKING June 12, 2015 8:16 PM BST
44444444444444444444444444
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:17 PM BST
Wished I hadn't chickened out of my 1.05.  But that's always easy with hindsight.
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:17 PM BST
in truth plunketts never been a total tail ender.
Report Angel Gabrial June 12, 2015 8:18 PM BST
6.2 nowGrin
Report GRANTCKING June 12, 2015 8:18 PM BST
raining
Report GRANTCKING June 12, 2015 8:18 PM BST
oh dear
Report GRANTCKING June 12, 2015 8:18 PM BST
engerland behind DL could all be in vain
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:19 PM BST
Shame if it ends with rain. Been a very good game again.
Report YOMOMMA June 12, 2015 8:21 PM BST
raining game over
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:21 PM BST
bloody rain , shame coz if these bat thru they can get there
Report TerryHurlock June 12, 2015 8:21 PM BST
No way....riot
Report YOMOMMA June 12, 2015 8:22 PM BST
ya england only need 54 to win.
Report Angel Gabrial June 12, 2015 8:23 PM BST
O well, trading was easy once again.
And England prove once again they have strength in depth batting wise.
Report trader pj June 12, 2015 8:23 PM BST
passing showers - see radar - England 9 behind D/L
Report cricketnut2 June 12, 2015 8:24 PM BST
Under the old regime, England would of been around 245-7, at this stage.
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:25 PM BST
Be interesting to see odds on next game.
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:25 PM BST
Just thought is there one?
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 8:26 PM BST
been great cricket between these 2 sides in all formats
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:26 PM BST
Two evenly matched teams playing to win.
Report trader pj June 12, 2015 8:30 PM BST
got to be playing by 9.14 pm otherwise NZ win by 9 runs
Report TerryHurlock June 12, 2015 8:39 PM BST
Get em back out there before health & safety get involved
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:39 PM BST
aye aye could be game on
Report leefee June 12, 2015 8:45 PM BST
Coming back on?
Report trader pj June 12, 2015 8:46 PM BST
not happening IMO
Report leefee June 12, 2015 8:52 PM BST
Still raining?

Sorry out with no pics.....
Report Angela Rebecchi June 12, 2015 8:52 PM BST
That's some target to reach off 13 balls.
Report mafeking June 12, 2015 8:52 PM BST
start 9.10
34 off 13 balls to win
Report wit-ham June 12, 2015 8:53 PM BST
that's Ridicuous
Report Fallen Angel June 12, 2015 8:53 PM BST
utter garbage
Report trader pj June 12, 2015 8:53 PM BST
MASSIVELY in New Zeland's favour - as good as game over
Report wit-ham June 12, 2015 8:53 PM BST
only need 9 an over before the rain
Report Fallen Angel June 12, 2015 8:54 PM BST
where do they get these numbers from?
Report jackkat June 12, 2015 8:54 PM BST
Why are they not straight on by 9.10 it will be raining 34 from 13 balls not looking good
Report trader pj June 12, 2015 8:54 PM BST
tie is more likely than England win now
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:55 PM BST
this is the first time ive ever seen d/l suit the bowling team like this.
Report Angela Rebecchi June 12, 2015 8:55 PM BST

Jun 12, 2015 -- 8:54PM, trader pj wrote:


tie is more likely than England win now


No, it isn't.

Report leefee June 12, 2015 8:55 PM BST
34 from 13? Wtf
Report jackkat June 12, 2015 8:55 PM BST
Botham trying to work it out just 2 much for him LaughLaughLaugh
Report Angela Rebecchi June 12, 2015 8:56 PM BST
Got a serious lump on 1.18 after that, Beefy was scratching his head trying to work it out Laugh
Report Charlie June 12, 2015 8:57 PM BST
Don't see how you got 1.18?
Report Fallen Angel June 12, 2015 8:57 PM BST
D/L is never in-line with betfair, they need to track the betting markets more closely Devil
Report maleuk01. June 12, 2015 8:58 PM BST
how did they come to that figure?

sounds wrong.

from 9 an over to 16 an over.
Report Angela Rebecchi June 12, 2015 8:58 PM BST
Back and submit did the job Laugh
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 8:58 PM BST
I can see why botham couldn't belive the  new target, itttsss   bbbbbooooollllooooooooooooooooooooox
Report ladofsteel June 12, 2015 9:00 PM BST
got 1.19 on new z   How???
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 9:01 PM BST
the f*cking lights are on
why can't they just play out the overs
f*cking poxy arcane inflexible rules
if they can't finish it why even bother going out again?
total b*llocks
Report trader pj June 12, 2015 9:02 PM BST

Jun 12, 2015 -- 8:55PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


Jun 12, 2015 --  8:54PM, trader pj wrote:tie is more likely than England win nowNo, it isn't.


in the mind of traderpj AngelA!

Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 9:03 PM BST
chris gayle & ABdV in tandem would struggle with this target
Report curious-cat June 12, 2015 9:05 PM BST
it's possibly easier to crash 20 from one over than 45 from 5

especially with 3 wickets left
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 9:05 PM BST
defo
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 9:06 PM BST
its all booollllox cos they culd have started 10/15 mins ago
Report DStyle June 12, 2015 9:06 PM BST
d/l fails for big scores, because the relationship between the difference between the run rate required prior to the interruption and after it, and the difficulty of achieving it, is not linear.

so going from from 7 an over before the rain to 11 an over after the rain, is much easier than going from 11 an over to 15 an over.

it fails to take this into account, assuming that resource allocation is independent of the score, which i don't think it is, particularly when we're looking at over 350.
Report curious-cat June 12, 2015 9:07 PM BST
how many times have you seen the batting side get the odds in their favour by knocking 20+ from one over .... 2 sixes 2 fours = 20
Report TerryHurlock June 12, 2015 9:10 PM BST
c'mon plunks
Report DStyle June 12, 2015 9:11 PM BST
sorry. that calculation was wrong

D/L says going from 7 to 11 is equivalent to going from 11 to 17.28.

going from 6 to 10 is equivalent to going from 11 to 18.33

massively wrong.
Report Fallen Angel June 12, 2015 9:12 PM BST
made impossible by D/L
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 9:12 PM BST
totally ruined what could've been a superb finish
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 9:12 PM BST
d/l ruins yet another match with its farcical targets, on this occasion it6s all but given the game o the bowlers usually it gives the game to thebatters
Report Angela Rebecchi June 12, 2015 9:13 PM BST
If Carlsberg did 1.08 shots.
Report TerryHurlock June 12, 2015 9:14 PM BST
fookExcited
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 9:14 PM BST
don't agree with that
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 9:14 PM BST
it would have been better if theyd never come back on really.
Report Fallen Angel June 12, 2015 9:15 PM BST
Rashid you didnt deserve that, great little cameo
Report curious-cat June 12, 2015 9:17 PM BST
you can't blame D/L for Eng losing 2 wickets.

what if both balls had gone for 10 in total ?
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 9:17 PM BST
hy did 9 15 have to be the cut off point
what's the point of having warmish summer conditions & lights if u can't play on?
Report jewell June 12, 2015 9:19 PM BST
Don't get this nonsense about having to finish by a certain time. If they have lights then why not play all night if they have to?
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 9:19 PM BST
more importantly  they could have started 10/15 mins earlier,
Report Cider June 12, 2015 9:20 PM BST
local curfew
Report HonkyJoe June 12, 2015 9:21 PM BST
They could certainly play on for another 20 mins, so it does seem ridiculous.  If there's a chance of playing the game to its natural conclusion, that should be the one aim. Anything else should be a last resort.
Report mafeking June 12, 2015 9:21 PM BST
yep the residents in their multi million pound properties moaned to the council. that's why it's an early start at the oval
Report johnnythebull June 12, 2015 9:22 PM BST
f*ck them
Report DStyle June 12, 2015 9:24 PM BST
there's practically no property around the Oval, it's not like Lord's.
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 9:24 PM BST
as I said its nonsense as they stood around for 20 mins after it had stopped raining, they could easily have been under way at 9.00 and there would have got the whole game done
Report DStyle June 12, 2015 9:24 PM BST
residential.
Report HonkyJoe June 12, 2015 9:25 PM BST
And it's not like this kind of situation occurs every day.
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 9:25 PM BST
botham says the same they could have been out much earlier
Report sickoflayinwinners June 12, 2015 9:26 PM BST
and the lights are still on now, farcical
Report DStyle June 12, 2015 9:31 PM BST
you have to respect the residents agreement, and that it takes the groundstaff time to get everything ready. but ask the crowd if they want:

a. to have a broadcasted post match presentation under the lights.

b. the full game played, and the post match presentation done indoors and the lights switched off straight away.
Report Gabriel June 12, 2015 10:21 PM BST
Thanks for taking part, sadly a typical Duckworth Lewis ending. IMHO as stated it came down to who won the toss rather then how the game was played

Chat more on Sunday

CU
Report curious-cat June 12, 2015 10:36 PM BST
DStyle

  12 Jun 15 21:24 

there's practically no property around the Oval, it's not like Lord's.



https://www.google.com/maps/views/view/105496968913289115396/gphoto/50832789...

Laugh
Report paddletoe June 12, 2015 10:45 PM BST
Up until this week Englands limited overs style of play was reminiscent of the French in ww2 playing the Germans but using ww1 tactics. Good to see they have finally learned you cant use tactics 30 years behind the times. They now have several players who are not afraid to get out and will go at a heavy strike rate from ball one.
Report paddletoe June 12, 2015 10:47 PM BST
Surely the input of a betting perspective would help modify the duckworth lewis so teams are set new totals which equate roughly to both teams being the same odds when they restart.
Report paddletoe June 12, 2015 10:48 PM BST
I mean the same odds they were when they restart as they were when they came off.
Report soultricks1 June 13, 2015 10:01 AM BST
Stunningly prescient thread title. Nice one  Gabriel
Report Gabriel June 13, 2015 1:51 PM BST
Interesting follow up on this link.......England v New Zealand: Morgan backs Duckworth-Lewis change
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/33120147
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