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ada
27 Oct 13 03:22
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Date Joined: 15 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 919 | Blogger: ada's blog
How would you price that up?
Pause Switch to Standard View India Vs West Indies (1st Test)
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Report lanza October 27, 2013 7:28 AM GMT
where in india is it being played?Devil
Report crunchyfrog October 28, 2013 1:41 PM GMT
Kolkata
Report DJSteer October 31, 2013 12:07 PM GMT
Draw is already looking nice and low at 2.8s but, as ever, expect it to trade lower. India should really have the edge here. I'd be amazed if the pitch isn't a raging turner. Surprised that Narine isn't in the WI squad given his recent form (albeit in the shorter formats).
Report ada November 2, 2013 6:56 PM GMT
Well I haven't looked at the weather or anything ground wise just yet but its hard to imgine that India wont get at least 300. The one question is how many will West Indies get. If India bat first Id wait 20/25 overs so the new ball is fairly used and if theres a wicket then you get a bigger price on India.

The good thing about betting india is they know they can chase runs quickly and know that they just need to get 20 wickets. The Draw is a solid trading play, if India bat then the Draw looks. Even if India got 550 the Draw would change much as its time taken out of the game and the wicket may seem ok. Then its just if the Indies can voided the Follow on.

We all know West Indies can be silly batting at times but if they got some runs then the Draw is the way to go. I cant see West Indies winning but can see them trading shorter if they bat first. Cant see it if they bowl, as if they get India out for a average score they India will still be Evs

1. If India bat first back them after 20/25 overs
2. Lay West Indies if they hit 5.0 or Lower
3.3. If West Indies bat first The Draw would be a good starting point
4. However this match starts I do expect India to Win or see West Indies trying to hold out
Report peckerdunne November 2, 2013 7:33 PM GMT
All makes sense(to you)Laugh
Report ada November 2, 2013 8:59 PM GMT
Yh I do alright with it all.

5/2 an Ashes Double Century :)
Report pxb November 2, 2013 11:15 PM GMT
No rain forecast, and WI got hammered here 2 years ago.

If WI bat first, lay the draw first up. If India bat first, look to lay the draw 2nd day when India has 350+ on the board.
Report pxb November 2, 2013 11:17 PM GMT
And I wouldn't back to lay the draw this match, even if India bat first.
Report ada November 2, 2013 11:27 PM GMT
Were see how it goes
Report Asparagus Man November 4, 2013 4:52 PM GMT
Was expecting WI to be about 15's for this to be honest - they probably will be after a few overs.

India clearly going to be distracted by TLM retirement, and I think that could give WI a chance in the opener, but expecting the market to hate WI in running so will wait for better prices.

Second test probably one to steer clear of unless you have seen the BCCI approved script.
Report ada November 4, 2013 10:50 PM GMT
Cant see WI winning here at all. I can see them getting a decent score but India out do them first innings.

Difficult to see where the game goes without watching abit.

Bottom line is the amount of runs WI get and will they have a collapse
Report jucel69 November 5, 2013 11:09 AM GMT
In the last 4-5 years, not many visiting sides win the first test of any series! nz in banga, sa in dubai, aus in eng, eng in india, eng in nz just off the top of my head. The last one I can think of is sa in eng 2012 & they just grabbed their window of opportunity on the second morning when the weather clouded over for a session and a half. Eng were 270 for 3 overnights so the saffers didn't start very well!
Report Whisperingdeath November 5, 2013 11:18 AM GMT
Slow low one!

Plenty of rain in Calcutta previously.  Good opportunity for the Sach to get runs?

I think I would favour the draw ante post.  If WI go first and get a big score then the draw might come down and not be as attractive.  Conversely India would go out and that would give India backers better odds.

It's not a great prospect either way.  If the bowlers can use any moisture early it may bugger the ante post draw. I will probably leave it alone but will be watching in the morning!  Happy days.  You'd think the Art of Bowling would improve with these batsmen friendly wickets.  I think Coco Cola should bring back the the metal bottle top!
Report bitbybit November 5, 2013 12:32 PM GMT
FWIW I work with some guys in Calcutta and weather there is great right now with no rain forecast - I've laid the draw @ 2.70
Report Whisperingdeath November 5, 2013 2:18 PM GMT
I think we will have to wait and see,

apparently Sammy says it looks like a 4th day pitch already but I find that hard to believe it has been so wet recently it will slow things down a touch.  A clue will come from India's bowling mix but we are told ( cricinfo anyway ) that the groundman and Dhoni are not best mates so don't expect a bunsen from day one.

All in all I guess we haven't got a clue what to expect even this being India.  The only thing that is for sure is WI won't win so should we have a bob on them?
Report DJSteer November 5, 2013 6:10 PM GMT
The noises about the pitch may just mean there's a little in it for all bowlers. Really can't see it being a pancake & a bore draw. Laying the draw at current price looks fairly low risk to me.
Report pxb November 5, 2013 8:57 PM GMT
Cricket365 think WI in with a real chance. Although I'd like WI more if Narine was playing. Still Shillingford's height could cause problems for India bats.

Win toss and bat venue. If WI bat first they could put on a decent total and the draw could go sub 1.5. I've changed my mind about this not being a draw back to lay game, if WI bat 1st.
Report Whisperingdeath November 5, 2013 9:21 PM GMT
I got a real feeling this is a batsman's pitch.  The rain last week. People wanting Tendulkar to sign off in style.  Groundsman doesn't like Dhoni and thinks people come to see batting not spinners.  Dhoni worried about his mix, does he play 5 bowlers.  If he does that would indicate to me it is a batting pitch although he may well just ask the Extremely Talented Rohit Sharma to bat 6 and bowl a few overs of off spin to the Windies left handers, but if he plays Mishra then the cat is out as far as I am concerned.
Report pxb November 5, 2013 9:30 PM GMT
You could well be right, Whispering.

I expect Indian money to pile on India when they wake up and India price to go to 1.8ish.
Report Whisperingdeath November 5, 2013 9:36 PM GMT
No Tony Greig pitch reportSad  Not that I ever saw Channel 9! Sad nonetheless!

Pxb,

Really I have no idea. Haven't even seen the pitch but gut feeling is strong.  Sort of looking forward to see some Indian Test Match batting and Windies have a couple of good bats too.
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 3:12 AM GMT
West Indies have won the toss and have opted to bat
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 3:14 AM GMT
West Indies (Playing XI): Chris Gayle, Kieran Powell, Darren Bravo, Marlon Samuels, Shivnarine Chanderpaul, Denesh Ramdin(w), Darren Sammy(c), Shane Shillingford, Veerasammy Permaul, Sheldon Cotterrell, Tino Best
India (Playing XI): Shikhar Dhawan, Murali Vijay, Cheteshwar Pujara, Sachin Tendulkar, Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, MS Dhoni(w/c), Ravichandran Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Pragyan Ojha, Mohammed Shami
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 3:36 AM GMT
Kieran Powell and Chris Gayle opening the innings
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2013 4:32 AM GMT
Just switched on West Coast, what a dumb shot by Powell.  Outside off stump and late on the hot, first ball from this end!

Well I was concerned about Ashiwn turning it in the last over but now it is irrellevant...I'm out!

What did the pitch report come up with?
Report pxb November 6, 2013 4:33 AM GMT
WI 47/2. Looks good to bat on. Maybe Shiv and the middle order can post a decent score.
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2013 4:38 AM GMT
Thanks Pxb,

They look like they are doing their best to throw this away.  I can't back the draw with this batting and Ashwin turning it already. 

Bravo is a good batsman and could get a big hundred and this is Shivs favourite place to bat.

I think I will just enjoy watching
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 4:46 AM GMT
300 was the par score predicted from betting markets
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2013 4:50 AM GMT
Shami bowling well but id the ball goes soft I think they have 300 well within them.  Might have a look.  Paddy Power 320.5.

Alarm bells going off in my head here.  I think India might only bat once but WI could get 350+ to start.  Patience!
Report pxb November 6, 2013 4:54 AM GMT
WI captain said at the toss he wouldn't want to bat last on this pitch. So 325 first inn could be enough for WI.
Report jucel69 November 6, 2013 4:59 AM GMT
Quite a lot of scuffing already which is normally a good sign if you are laying the draw. Should at least be a fair bit of rough on days 4/5. WI only have 5 batsmen and a nice mix of right left handers, countered by right/left handed spinner for India
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 5:10 AM GMT
95 runs in a 1st session is pretty decent run rate, despite losing 2 wickets
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 5:11 AM GMT
still 20 minutes till lunch
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 5:11 AM GMT
the influence of T20 cricket is having an impact on all forms of the game
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 5:12 AM GMT
international sides have no fear about the Indian bowling attack
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2013 5:35 AM GMT
I might just have a bob on WI!

I thought the Indian spinners pitched the ball well up and am surprised they weren't driven more often.  Bravo being very cautious with Ashwin, should have twatted him!

Great start to the Test. I have got it completely wrong except that I didn't lay my money down thank God!
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2013 5:35 AM GMT
Paddy Power up to 339 on WI btw
Report West Coast Eagles November 6, 2013 5:42 AM GMT
think Windies can get 350+ easily here, dont rate India bowling
Report pxb November 6, 2013 6:04 AM GMT
Not on day 1. Day 4/5 Indian bowling rather better.
Report jucel69 November 6, 2013 6:25 AM GMT
Ball going through the top already.Happy
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2013 6:27 AM GMT
Yep,  I think I actually might have called this right before the game but was aghast to see Powell give his wicket away and Ashwin turning the ball before lunch.  The pitch should settle down now and runs will come.  Good contest.  No idea as to how the game will develop and if the pitch will spin sharply.  All 3 results on imho.
Report jucel69 November 6, 2013 6:30 AM GMT
I greened out at lunch as the afternoon session often sees the draw come in a bit due to it being the best part of the day to bat. Might dip in again later, but treading lightly after a dire October!
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2013 6:32 AM GMT
I think everybody is softly softly juce,

not sure what is happening here.  relatively light trading.

had a bob on WI at 5.8 for fun
Report jucel69 November 6, 2013 6:58 AM GMT
village from Bravo!
Report jucel69 November 6, 2013 7:05 AM GMT
add reverse swing into the equation and it's gsm on laying the draw!
Report DStyle November 6, 2013 7:46 AM GMT
chanderpaul shouldn't be batting at 5 with this line up.

bravo down to 5, chanderpaul at 4.

could easily find himself with a red inker of about 30 runs.
Report V.Hanescu November 6, 2013 7:57 AM GMT
WI wont even go over 275 FFS
Report Smith1 November 6, 2013 8:11 AM GMT
sachin Laugh
Report DStyle November 6, 2013 8:11 AM GMT
Shillingford guaranteed an IPL contract last night.
Report Whisperingdeath November 6, 2013 12:37 PM GMT
Had to go to bed after Bravo had run himself out!  What a clown after doing all the hardwork!  Sammy and Powell have no need to wear clown mask's either for giving their wickets away.  If you play 5 batsmen and two plus half a batsman throw their wicket away you deserve what you get.

It looks all set fair for Sachin. 

India to bat once I think.  WI have thrown away the match with their wickets.
Report OzBattla November 6, 2013 7:50 PM GMT
Had a small play of lay India @ 1.15. Off to a good start India 0-40odd. Totally different competition team wise, but mind goes back to last year when England made a relative small total and India were dismissed cheaply for less. India off limited preperation so I have brought a ticket in case this happens day2.
Report Smith1 November 7, 2013 5:00 AM GMT
5 down Shocked game on
Report jucel69 November 7, 2013 5:05 AM GMT
put a speculative chunk on WI at 12's. Decisions, decisions to green up big or wait until the end of the innings!
Report pxb November 7, 2013 8:12 PM GMT
This could be one of those pitches that actually improves thru the 3rd/4th day. WI get lucky and knock over Sharma and Ashwin early, then I think still in with a chance with India batting last. Draw still looks unlikely. But time for me to green up for a modest profit.
Report pxb November 8, 2013 4:53 AM GMT
India nearly 20o ahead and you'd have to say now out of reach for WI. Still don't see a draw, but hoping for it to come in a bit so I can lay some.
Report DStyle November 8, 2013 6:44 AM GMT
appalling innings from gayle.
Report DStyle November 8, 2013 9:43 AM GMT
been about four overs in total in the entire match for the 5th wicket stand. You just can't bat Shiv at 5 with ramdin and the tail.
Report peckerdunne November 8, 2013 11:34 AM GMT
Paid out........Laugh
Report OzBattla November 8, 2013 8:25 PM GMT
Agree Dstyle, Shiv about the only batsmen who plays like a Test player, need him much higher give the bloke a chance
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