Who is backing Kolkata for Top 4 IPL

looks a great bet now! they're four results away from being there, probably a 30/1 shot now

in fact, a lot shorter than that. looking at the fixtures I make it about a 12/1 chance

May 14, 2013 -- 2:42PM, cnman wrote:

in fact, a lot shorter than that. looking at the fixtures I make it about a 12/1 chance

you are forgetting the run rates!

Also, it's 5 results.

They need :

RCB to lose last remaining game
Sunrisers to lose both games
KRR to win both

And even then it's touch and go on the RR.

If you take evens for all games I make that 32/1 - no idea how you price the rr difference

If KKR win both their games (one against Sunrisers) and both RCB and Sunrisers lose their remaining fixture all 3 will be on 16pts, so it'll be down to NRR.

May 14, 2013 -- 4:25PM, tommycockles wrote:

If KKR win both their games (one against Sunrisers) and both RCB and Sunrisers lose their remaining fixture all 3 will be on 16pts, so it'll be down to NRR.

Indeed and at the present moment RCB are well ahead.  What's already contrived to leave KKR and (Punjab for that matter) with a chance has been quite unusual.

Nigel- the point I was trying to make was only 4 results needed, not 5 (because KKR play Sunrisers) for all teams to finish on 16pts. Anyway,doesn't matter, proper cricket starts on Thursday. Cheers

May 14, 2013 -- 4:35PM, tommycockles wrote:

Nigel- the point I was trying to make was only 4 results needed, not 5 (because KKR play Sunrisers) for all teams to finish on 16pts. Anyway,doesn't matter, proper cricket starts on Thursday. Cheers

yes, thank you.  That was me being a numpty!

no worries.

yep that's why it's 4, not 5. also, IF KKR win both their games and other results go their way then it's highly likely they'll have overcome the RRR. also, you can't take evens for all the games because they're far from evens. I make it:

KKR to beat Pune (1.56)
Rajasthan to beat Hyderabad (1.82)
CSK to beat RCB (1.75)
KKR to beat Sunrisers (1.7)

1.56 x 1.82 x 1.75 x 1.7 = 8.4466

If those results come true then I make it about a 1.8 shot that KKR go through on RRR. Therefore:

8.4466 x 1.8 = 15.02, which is around 14/1

Also, you have to factor in the fact that the IPL LOVES a fairytale run. remember CSK needing 6 results or something stupid to go in their favour to qualify last year?

I wouldn't rule out similar happening for KKR this time

Never easy to price the rr.

I make it 125 runs difference between RCB and KKR.
So if the 3 results (excluding RR-HSR) go the right way for KKR, what price they bridge the 125 runs???

a big price if fat slug Kallis has anything to do with it.

Appreciate the comments guys.  I was extremely tempted to lay KKR at 30's very heavily - will hold off for now.  Hadn't really done the maths properly although I do still think the RR could be the big problem.

Delighted to have laid them at 25 and 21 and if I had more money I would lay the rest at 26 and 27.  They need 4 results to go their way
and 3 of them(involving Kolkata and RCB) massively in terms of net run rate.  RCB are 0.343 ahead of them which has taken 29 matches.  Multiply 0.343 X 29 = 9.947 in total.  9.947/3 = 3.32 per match.  To win a match by this run rate you need to win by 66 runs batting first. Batting second it depends on the target how many overs they need to win but e.g. If the target is 120 that would need to be chased down in 13 overs.

So far out of 64 matches 4 have been won by more than 66 runs and none by 7 overs.  Given that either team can win that makes it a 1 in 32 chance(in theory) that a named team will win by that run rate 32 x 32 x 32 x 2(other match) = 65536 WOW! Of course there is more chance a team can win by the run rate if they are trying to do that especially chasing but unlikely chasing more than 150

Doesn't matter now (unless one fancies the same punt on Punjab) but I don't follow your calcs Aston.

I think you have to average the the run rate variance in the games won across the IPL when working out the run rate because you've already assumed KKR would have one those games in your analysis - i.e. can't take the average including lost games.

Nigel I made a mistake with my calcs as I calculated on each match being over the

I didnt even finish that reply and my laptop posted it

As I was saying I calculated it on each match being over a minumum margin instead of the total averaging over that margin which is too complex a calculation for me but I know it was huge odds probably over 1000.  Its the same situation with Punjab who are doomed. Im just hoping it confirmed sooner rather than later to reduce my exposure and I will have more available for the proper cricket starting tomorrow at Lords

yeah,  I think I know where you are going with it and just done the calcs myself and taken out most of the punjab back order on winner/top 4 and to reach final.

Didn't need the fixing news though - guess there's no a chance the RR get thrown out and Sunrisers RR is worse than Panjab if they lose both games

I've cancelled all my bets in the Winner market in case they penalize RR and dock points.