Cricket
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Little bit of help regarding state of track and weather conditions would help, thank you
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Replies: 429
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OOpps got my dates fcked up, week early forget i asked
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england look low to me .
not many of the players apart from root and bairstow have much form coming in. also the weather looks unsettled for most of may although that could change quickly |
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too far out for weather but not too far out to lay NZ - they really have no chance whatsoever
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you said that last series and they traded heavy odds on twice!
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And to add to that if they couldn't beat ENG in the scenario of that last test they never will.
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we played on mega flat pitches in NZ and their bowlers still had us in trouble. If we play on anything
with some life in it and NZ bowlers get some cloud cover I cant say I'd be too happy to be sitting on an 11/1 lay but each to their own. |
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NZ don't know how to win test matches - FACT
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NZ have a history of getting draws against superior opposition. Something I've made good money on in the past.
I'll start with a modest lay of NZ. |
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Quite happy to sit on an England lay for now - plenty of dodgy weather around.
Double figure lays of the Kiwis only for the very brave - could have beaten England 2-0 a few months ago. England batting line-up will be as inexperienced as any in a long time, and question marks over all the bowlers apart from Jimmy A. |
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Since Lords started staging test matches in May which was in 2000 there have been 12 Tests of which 4 have been draws and of those I think it would be fair to say 3 have been caused by the weather
I'm not brave enough to get involved yet as its a bit of a weather lottery |
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Just looking at the betting for this and noticed a big rick by someone backing NZ at Evens for £2.5K. Nice lay for someone!!
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How the hell has that happened??
Someone is very happy and someone very sick! |
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I thought evens was value..........
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this is a serious flaw in the betfair system
this bet should be refunded. It could be money laundering ffs. who makes a £2.5k bet on NZ at evens and gets it that wrong. it just doesn't happen |
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yeah , that is strange , someone backing NZ at evens for 2.5 K , its not like all the odds down to 2.0's got matched , like a fat finger hoover mistake , someone clearly wanted 2.0's for 2.5K ...
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Joel 10 May 13 03:51
I thought evens was value..........  d13phe 10 May 13 12:57 this is a serious flaw in the betfair system this bet should be refunded. It could be money laundering ffs. who makes a £2.5k bet on NZ at evens and gets it that wrong. it just doesn't happen It does happen quite regularly unfortunately for the backer. It is probably a fat finger error possibly wanting to back England at Evens. just a lucky break for the layer- Not me unfortunately! |
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i dont think it is a case of a fat finger at all.
its dodgy. people who bet in chunks of £2.5ks don't have fat fingers. could be 2 people manipulating the Premium charge |
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If you can get on with Betfair fixed odds, well worth taking 3.4 the draw. GFS and ECM ensembles showing lots of runs with rain in a week's time.
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/ |
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How can you manipulate the premium charge by backing a 10/1 shot at Evens?
If they are laying it themselves Betfair will pick up on it and they will get a warning. I got a warning many years back for transferring money between accounts. Allegedly!  |
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Forecast looks pretty wet. I've taken a fair amount of the draw. Looking forward to a draw panic when it rains day 1.
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Predictable England squad announced. Presumably team will be
Cook Compton Trott Bell Root Bairstow Prior Broad Swann Anderson Finn Guess only decision to be made is whether Bres gets in ahead of Finn |
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If Root and Bairstow do well and Bell doesnt what chance he is dropped for KP come the ashes?
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2012... 2-0 v windies
2011... 1-0? V SL 2010... 2-0 v bang 2009... 2-0 vwindies 2008... 1 or 2-0 v NZ 2007... 3-0 v windies 2006... 1-1 v SL 2005... 2-0 v Bang 2004... 3-0 v NZ 2003... 2-0 v Zim 2002... 2-0 v SL We dont lose many games in these opening series of the summer... 1 in 30 games last 11 years. |
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And that loss to Sri Lanka was in June.
I read in The Cricketer that England haven't lost a Test in May since 1921, but haven't checked that myself. |
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We lost to pak in 2001... Day 1 was 31 may,
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looks like cracking bowling conditions throughout the test.
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and the sri lanka loss was on a raging bunsen at trent bridge tailor made for murali
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Weather looking better. Sunday still problematic though. Laid the draw as agree with Lix that Bowling conditions will be superb.
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RE: the earlier - it's premium charge avoiders.
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Rob Dylan
2012... 2-0 v windies 2011... 1-0? V SL 2010... 2-0 v bang 2009... 2-0 vwindies 2008... 1 or 2-0 v NZ 2007... 3-0 v windies 2006... 1-1 v SL 2005... 2-0 v Bang 2004... 3-0 v NZ 2003... 2-0 v Zim 2002... 2-0 v SL We dont lose many games in these opening series of the summer... 1 in 30 games last 11 years. Those are impressive stats but to be fair they are all against relatively weaker teams in English conditions. It looks like they choose to play the stronger teams(of the last 10 years) Australia, Saffers and India later in the summer |
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Well the track at Lords is usually lifeless, for Test Matches and New Zealand are used to playing in cold conditions as well, however with showers forecast for Thursday, Friday, the draw would be the safe and only bet, at this stage
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Forecast getting worse. Put more on the draw.
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Nigel,
It's one of those situations where we could lose a session or 2 days. You pays your money, and you takes your chances. |
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Happy to hold an England lay for now.
Forecast seems such that it will be good bowling conditions - more an issue of how much play we get in. |
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well there's likely to be some panic if conditions are bad for an entire day so probably a good call. Would expect draw
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