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nigelpm1
28 Feb 13 13:58
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Date Joined: 10 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 6,725 | Blogger: nigelpm1's blog
Early thoughts....

Not many to be fair as it's not got much history

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/ground/58142.html?class=1;template=results;type=aggregate

2 matches, 1 draw (Just through good innings scores, a bit of bad light one day but no rain)

No chance of rain.

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-INXX0057?cm_ven=cricinfo_UK&cm_cat=grounds&cm_ite=weather&cm_pla=10day

Could be opportunities to lay draw if goes odds on but it looks a pretty flat deck so could finish in a draw.
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Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 10:38 AM GMT
Goodness me, not looked at this until now.  Genuinely thought draw > 8.  5 (!!!)  Lay time.
Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 10:39 AM GMT
oh that was lucky timing ;-)
Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 10:41 AM GMT

Mar 2, 2013 -- 6:31AM, T20man wrote:


I dont understand the enthusiasm for a draw here tbh. I think the Aussies are in deep crap.India already got 4 wickets in the 1st session and I'm guessing that the Aussies wont score too many in the 2nd innings once the pitch becomes more spin friendly. So I am just aboutruling out the draw. Aussies dont have the bowlers to bowl out India twice. So that justleaves 1 likely result. INDIA win. I've taken the 1.85 on that. Might top up some more asthe game continues.


Good call.  Might be tempted to take some profit though.  Wicket doing loads.

Report lanza March 2, 2013 10:46 AM GMT
LOL. early dec.
Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 10:47 AM GMT
amazing.  love Clarke
Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 10:47 AM GMT
never a draw
Report lanza March 2, 2013 10:49 AM GMT
700 quid matched at 1.01 ...yikes.
Report Rider March 2, 2013 10:50 AM GMT
dec is fair enough but why were the last 2 just defending before that?
Report sweetchildofmine March 2, 2013 11:10 AM GMT
market loving the draw still, im just constantly laying at 7.4 and backing at 7.6/7.8
Report trader pj March 2, 2013 11:32 AM GMT
What a terrible day 1 pitch!
India have to bat last on this so I would hold off steaming into 1.45
Last thing - Sehwag is a walking wicket with those glasses on
Report sweetchildofmine March 2, 2013 11:37 AM GMT
they may not have to bat twice trader  Cool
Report sweetchildofmine March 2, 2013 11:45 AM GMT
so...scenario for draw price, what would it be if after stumps tomorrow, india are 300-3, or 265 all out?
Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 12:50 PM GMT

Mar 2, 2013 -- 11:45AM, sweetchildofmine wrote:


so...scenario for draw price, what would it be if after stumps tomorrow, india are 300-3, or 265 all out?


300/3 - draw would be about 5 I reckon.  265 all out - 10+

Report Lix March 2, 2013 1:41 PM GMT
agree with that. doesnt really matter what score india get. For this to be a draw from here needs Aus to make 400+ batting 2nd which aint happening.
Report West Coast Eagles March 2, 2013 1:50 PM GMT
anyone here thought it was unusual declaration by Clarke to declare at 237/9? Look at the last test match, the last wicket stand was around 70 runs or so.........not saying they would have done it,but another 20-30 runs could be the difference in this match
Report West Coast Eagles March 2, 2013 1:50 PM GMT
hope it doesnt come back to bite him
Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 1:51 PM GMT

Mar 2, 2013 -- 1:41PM, Lix wrote:


agree with that. doesnt really matter what score india get. For this to be a draw from here needs Aus to make 400+ batting 2nd which aint happening.


any thoughts on why the draw is pretty much always too short?  I can't really fathom it.  Generally the market is right'ish but the draw price seems to assume both teams are going to bat in one innings for 3-4 days and get combined scores of 700+

Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 1:54 PM GMT

Mar 2, 2013 -- 1:50PM, West Coast Eagles wrote:


anyone here thought it was unusual declaration by Clarke to declare at 237/9? Look at the last test match, the last wicket stand was around 70 runs or so.........not saying they would have done it,but another 20-30 runs could be the difference in this match


It was unusual but inspired IMHO.  Can't imagine the game will be lost by < 20 runs which is all they'd have got IMHO.  They could have bagged a wicket in those three overs and put the aussies in a strong position for tomorrow.  Bit of psychology from Clarke and the openers who weren't in the best frame of mind to bat after fielding all day.  I liked it and reckon we'll see more of it in future.  Test cricket has changed so much through the introduction of T20 and much for the better.

Report trader pj March 2, 2013 1:59 PM GMT
what a ridiculous declaration as well!

draw 20/1 in my mind
Report pxb March 2, 2013 5:17 PM GMT
India could struggle to pass Australia's total, which gives Australia a distinct advantage having batted first. But otherwise I agree, it really doesn't matter how much India get, this isn't going to a draw.
Report pokeron March 2, 2013 9:22 PM GMT
totally awesome move from clarke. indian openers would have been mind fecked for sure. all relaxed standing in slips thinking about that massage, then boom! have a bat for 5 overs!

only way of gaining the upper hand in the mind stakes without actually playing any cricket by australia. totally inspired move. it made me hard having layed the draw.
Report nigelpm1 March 2, 2013 10:53 PM GMT

Mar 2, 2013 -- 9:22PM, pokeron wrote:


totally awesome move from clarke. indian openers would have been mind fecked for sure. all relaxed standing in slips thinking about that massage, then boom! have a bat for 5 overs! only way of gaining the upper hand in the mind stakes without actually playing any cricket by australia. totally inspired move. it made me hard having layed the draw.


Definitely wouldn't go quite that far and if Clarke makes you hard then all I can say is "each to their own" Excited

Report VCM March 2, 2013 11:12 PM GMT
Can anyone see past an Indian win here? Layed Aus pre-match. Would kind of preferred them to bat a bit better to keep the draw onside
Report Rampant Rabbit March 2, 2013 11:33 PM GMT
having sold runs and after the 80 run final partnership for 9th wkt last time, I took decision to close off.. They declared next ball and I wasted 16 pts.. Therefore I had no boner.
Report pxb March 2, 2013 11:53 PM GMT
I can see past an India win. Australia's pace attack is good and India's batting line up fragile. Dhoni won't save them every time.
Report Footiefan111 March 3, 2013 4:59 AM GMT
india batting to slowly
Report Footiefan111 March 3, 2013 5:00 AM GMT
should be scoring 3 runs an over
Report T20man March 3, 2013 7:15 AM GMT
No need to rush here for India. Their plan is obvious.
Tire out the bowlers in the heat...bat for 2 days...post 500+,
and then bowl out the Aussies on a spinning 4th day wicket.
Pretty simple formula...Grin.
The market was very slow to realise yesterday just how much trouble
Australia was in.
Report nigel no idea March 3, 2013 7:43 AM GMT
aussie getting trashed here starting to look tired if their spinners have no impact long day in heat for aussie
Report sonofshinner March 3, 2013 7:56 AM GMT
are india playing for the draw,surely they could push on now.
Report sonofshinner March 3, 2013 8:05 AM GMT
very productive over 5 off it.l.o.l.
Report nigelpm1 March 3, 2013 8:14 AM GMT

Mar 3, 2013 -- 7:56AM, sonofshinner wrote:


are india playing for the draw,surely they could push on now.


This is test cricket.  They can push on once they've reached the Aussies total.  All the time in the world.

Report nigelpm1 March 3, 2013 9:28 AM GMT
Just looking at the run lines - assuming India are going to bat long which I guess they will but always a chance of an early dec if 250 ahead.
Report scliffor March 3, 2013 9:36 AM GMT
Doherty has had some experience of bowling in long innings. In his debut Eng got 500+ for 1 (2nd inns), and in the next game they were 620ish for 5. Now for his recall India are looking like they can score as many as they want. Coincidence?

More seriously how did the Australian selectors think that swapping Maxwell and Doherty in for Starc and Lyon was going to strengthen their attack?
Report Charkitz March 3, 2013 9:48 AM GMT
It was worth a try to swap Lyon with Doherty. Lyon has had a long stint in the team without setting the world on fire and they thought Doherty's style of bowling might suit Indian pitches. I find it funny that Nathan Lyon is all of a sudden such a brilliant bowler. The truth is their's no Oz bowler that's up to international standard right now.
Report sweetchildofmine March 3, 2013 9:51 AM GMT
nigel  i reckon theres zero chance of declaring 250 ahead in day 3, that would give the aussies a whiff of a chance ..score 400 and leave india a tricky little total total on day 5.
much better to declare if possible at lunch on day 4 with 650 runs in the bag and make batting a second time unlikely
Report Mariner Paul March 3, 2013 10:00 AM GMT
Nice to see the Dave Warner pie shop open for business this morning.
Report sonofshinner March 3, 2013 10:03 AM GMT
hope they keep him on.
Report sonofshinner March 3, 2013 10:07 AM GMT
doesnt it make clarkes dec.laughable.
Report sonofshinner March 3, 2013 10:26 AM GMT
are pakistan batting 8 runs,maiden,maiden,8 runs.l.o.l.
Report Esox March 3, 2013 10:41 AM GMT
Runaway train never going back
Wrong way on a one way track
Seems like I should be getting somewhere
Somehow I'm neither here nor there.

Great song by Soul Asylum.

What made me think of it.Excited
Report nigelpm1 March 3, 2013 10:48 AM GMT

Mar 3, 2013 -- 10:07AM, sonofshinner wrote:


doesnt it make clarkes dec.laughable.


Doesn't make a blind bit of difference

Report trader pj March 3, 2013 10:54 AM GMT
this pitch looks really tamecompared to yesterday.!!
Report rob_dylan March 3, 2013 11:38 AM GMT
Good call T20, never doubted you for a minute.
Report TwoTonTed March 3, 2013 11:45 AM GMT
this game finishes some time last session Day 4 (if Aus are lucky)
Report nigelpm1 March 3, 2013 11:54 AM GMT

Mar 3, 2013 -- 11:45AM, TwoTonTed wrote:


this game finishes some time last session Day 4 (if Aus are lucky)


How do you see it panning out?

Report JustWinBaby March 3, 2013 12:42 PM GMT
India have enough of a lead already
Report YOMOMMA March 3, 2013 3:22 PM GMT
Australia really are total **** against spin in India, they couldn't beat an egg. They might aswell not bother with the rest of the series. India 4 Australia 0.
Report lanza March 3, 2013 3:35 PM GMT
for me,im hoping for a very near 600 indian score.  might go for the bullseye and hope for a 400 lead (637) and then the dec.

9 sessions left, im hoping they definitely bat for another 3 speeding up lower down the order.

Will dhoni... do a clark and get them in just before close tomor.  i hope not.  311/1 now.

380/2 ...at lunch
490/5 ...at tea
600 for something, maybe put them in for a few overs.

would still have 6 sessions left, 350-400 lead.

Il add a session onto ttt end.  Just in case defensive dhoni, goes for 600+ and bats into day 4.
Report scliffor March 3, 2013 4:48 PM GMT
Given the pitch isn't going to get any better, Dhoni may bat to a point where Aus will have to bat out the match to save it. If they score at a similar rate to today (and doubt Aus have the attack to slow them down for long periods), then that would be a lead of around 400 mid way through the first session on day 4. Aus would have 5 and a half sessions to bat out. India may as well just bat once as long as the runs are coming.
Report Balldrick March 4, 2013 4:32 AM GMT
Can anyone help me find an online site to view the cricket?
Report lanza March 4, 2013 4:50 AM GMT
another indian non - lbw?
Report Charkitz March 4, 2013 4:57 AM GMT
Try this link... http://www.starsports.com/
Report lanza March 4, 2013 6:04 AM GMT
400/3   +160  (8 sessions left)
Report sonofshinner March 4, 2013 7:56 AM GMT
draw is 5.4.what should it really be. @ 12
Report sonofshinner March 4, 2013 8:38 AM GMT
c/mon india time to declare.lol.
Report lanza March 4, 2013 8:47 AM GMT
503 all out. SadShocked
Report JustWinBaby March 4, 2013 8:51 AM GMT
Why aren't India sub 1.10
Report smithy91 March 4, 2013 10:00 AM GMT
Anyway aus can win this gents ? :/
Report DStyle March 4, 2013 10:32 AM GMT
lol.

that's facking atrocious cricket from hughes.

and i thought his only problem was chasing balls outside his off stump.
Report Lix March 4, 2013 12:18 PM GMT
chasing balls outside his offstump is the only thing he's good at!
Report nigelpm1 March 4, 2013 12:27 PM GMT
I'm continually surprised by the price of the draw but 9.4 here looks ludicrous.  Even if the aussies survive four more sessions and score another 400 India will chase 200 in two sessions.
Report nigelpm1 March 4, 2013 12:28 PM GMT
A cheeky punt on the Aussies might be worth looking at as well.
Report miss anomaly March 4, 2013 12:35 PM GMT
I wouldn't back anyone to chase 200 in the last two sessions of a Test, and this pitch isn't a belter by any means. It won't come to that though - Australia can't survive four sessions against this three-pronged spin attack.
Report nigelpm1 March 4, 2013 12:41 PM GMT

Mar 4, 2013 -- 12:35PM, miss anomaly wrote:


I wouldn't back anyone to chase 200 in the last two sessions of a Test, and this pitch isn't a belter by any means. It won't come to that though - Australia can't survive four sessions against this three-pronged spin attack.


so in that scenario you think they'd hold out for a draw?

Report sonofshinner March 4, 2013 1:01 PM GMT
if aussies bat for 4 and half sessions for a lead of 200+ that would secure the draw.
Report Lix March 4, 2013 1:05 PM GMT
not necessarily. even if india needed 200 off 40 overs they'd have a chance if sehwag got em off to a flier.
Report nigelpm1 March 4, 2013 1:31 PM GMT
What's also interesting is usually India are "too short" but in this test they've been either about right or slightly long.  Mumbai flow of money dwindling?
Report Lix March 4, 2013 2:00 PM GMT
market is much sharper these days. aussies aura has finally worn off.
Report lostboy182 March 4, 2013 2:20 PM GMT
Who remembers this match?

http://www.espncricinfo.com/west-indies-v-india-2011/engine/match/489228.html

India had to chase down 180 in 60 odd overs, yet Dhoni bottled it and shook on a draw when they were 94/3.

Dhoni has a defensive history of shutting up shop when he is 1-0 up in a series.
Report Lix March 4, 2013 2:33 PM GMT
yep that is true. no sehwag in that game tho and india lost a wkt 1st ball of the chase which made them go into their shells a bit. also playing at home here. the crowd would go nuts if they didnt even try to chase.

The main reason they didnt chase vs Windies was Bishoo bowling into the rough to the right handers. he is accuarate enough and spins it enough for it to be very difficult to score off without taking lots of risk. I guess doherty could do a similar job
but he's not in the same class and would be bound to lob up the odd full toss.

anyway, will probs be over tomo much as i'd like to see india chase something significant
Report nigelpm1 March 4, 2013 2:41 PM GMT
Yeah, always possible I guess.  It's just that 9.2 as it now doesn't reflect the risk at all.
Report nigelpm1 March 4, 2013 5:08 PM GMT
http://megarainuk.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-draw.html - In 2011/12 season : Only two games out of 41 ended in a draw where there was no rain at all - quite remarkable.
Report Injera March 4, 2013 7:01 PM GMT
The cricket/market prices has been frustratingly dull in that India are too far ahead of their opposition despite their own fragility.

There's just a hint of fear with regard to the Aussie price. 38s. Really? They're 192 behind with just 2 days to go. Bat like heroes and they will lead by 100 going into Day 5, suggesting the pitch is pretty damn good.

38s is hardly layable to big numbers but it's still too short..
Report JustWinBaby March 4, 2013 7:43 PM GMT
Phil Hughes really has NFI on this tour Laugh

His stats are becoming similar to Ponting back when Australia toured in 2001
Report Charkitz March 4, 2013 8:45 PM GMT
Lix is right India have a history of being much more defensive when playing abroad. I remember when they toured Australia many years back they were 1 match down with a game to go in the series but didn't even try to win the last game. They were happy to only lose 1-0. At home it's different, they'll be going all out to win 4-0 here.
Report pxb March 4, 2013 8:47 PM GMT
Travelling today, so greened up about 15 hours ago. Don't like to worry about what's happening in a match when I'm travelling. Backed Oz at 110, and a bit surprised to see them at 36.

Always some irrational optimism around in test matches. So no problem laying them at this price. It would take a remarkable end to the test match for them to win. Even though India's 1st innings total flattered them and they could struggle with a 150 target, but Oz won't get near that.
Report TwoTonTed March 4, 2013 9:46 PM GMT
game finishes tomorrow, 1 will bring 2 will bring the house down; Pup due to fail miserably, team confidence shot is a massive factor in this AUS defeat and 4 nil looms................
Report Lix March 4, 2013 10:00 PM GMT
yeah can see pup failing. will  still have his mug declaration on his mind.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 4, 2013 10:26 PM GMT
India can still be obsessed with avoiding defeat, even at home imo.

Remember the last Test against England? 2-1 down and the consensus was the pitch had to be a result one. What did we get? The flattest, slowest wicket in living memory. The result? A draw and the big names kept their seats on the gravy train.
Report Lix March 4, 2013 10:35 PM GMT
hmm... yeah but they've also chased up 380 at Chennai 'going for it' when they coulda drawn. also went for it and won
vs Aus in Mohali last time they were here with Pujara going nuts. wasnt exactly India's 1st team that bottled the chase in the west indies. this lot will go for anything up to 200 imo. not that we'll find out
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 4, 2013 10:51 PM GMT
Yeah, it is hard to imagine Cowan having the talent or Twatto the temperament to get through the first hour tomorrow. But IF ... IF they did, Dhoni still seems to resort to defensive fields as his Plan B.

But I agree with "not that we'll find out". Too many Australians have been floundering out of their comfort zones in this series.
Report rob_dylan March 5, 2013 3:55 AM GMT
England will never have a better chance of an ashes five zip than this summer, hope it is a dry one.
Report pxb March 5, 2013 3:57 AM GMT
Markets get really thin when  the poms go to bed.

You'd think some of them would adjust their sleep schedule to trade in play cos us Aussies can't.

Makes me think it might be worthwhile moving back there.

Just kidding!
Report pxb March 5, 2013 4:58 AM GMT
All over, bar the shouting.
Report lanza March 5, 2013 5:10 AM GMT
fumbled yet still run out by miles.  lol  what was maxi doing at the start?
Report lanza March 5, 2013 5:10 AM GMT
^moises
Report lanza March 5, 2013 5:33 AM GMT
some strange bets on cowan in top bat market.  Some premium charge avoider i reckron, avoiding then reversing?  Might have to reverse again if wade gets close.  Laugh
Report nicky27 March 5, 2013 5:44 AM GMT
Australia collapsing like a cheap tent in a gale here Grin
expected them to lose, but not quite so convincingly
long gone is the invincible aura of the Warne/ Mcgrath  era
Report lanza March 5, 2013 5:45 AM GMT
england just wanna prepare 5 dust bowls.  Australia havent any idea against spin.
Report nicky27 March 5, 2013 5:47 AM GMT
makes the first innings declaration seem hilarious now after this innings defeat
Report Joel March 5, 2013 6:18 AM GMT
Agree, especially after that massive last wicket partnership in the second innings.
Report nigelpm1 March 5, 2013 7:46 AM GMT

Mar 5, 2013 -- 5:47AM, nicky27 wrote:


makes the first innings declaration seem hilarious now after this innings defeat


Doesn't change it for me.  Like I said at the time it wasn't going to be won/lost on 20 runs.

Report nigelpm1 March 5, 2013 7:47 AM GMT
What a fast wrap.   Annoyed I bothered to get up at 4am as that cost me a few hundred quid backing the draw (just in case)
Report JustWinBaby March 5, 2013 10:56 AM GMT
First time in test history a team that declared in its first innings has lost by an innings
Report JustWinBaby March 5, 2013 10:57 AM GMT
4-0 result is inevitable
Report Footiefan111 March 5, 2013 10:30 PM GMT
what you guys think about the ashes will the Aussies struggle, if the pitches have abit of life for the seamers they could still have a sniff
Report scliffor March 6, 2013 8:24 PM GMT
Certainly don't think that a tour to India gives much information about how well Aus will fare in England.

That said, the fact that the squad may contain Hughes, Smith, Johnson and Maxwell does not bode well for them.
Report JustWinBaby March 7, 2013 10:37 AM GMT
Not sure what the point of Smith in the squad is as he can't bowl or bat. A professional fielder perhaps?
Report JustWinBaby March 7, 2013 10:40 AM GMT
It's time for Hughes to be "rested" for the next 2 tests as he really has no idea against spin
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