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NZ v England 1st Test. dunedin March 6th

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By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 11:52

Mar 6, 2013 -- 11:50AM, Asparagus Man wrote:

Conditions likely to be perfect for the NZ attack nigel - they might not need to do much more that put the ball in the right areas first thing.I've taken a medium size position on NZ with a view to trade - shame it's not at 20s

good luck, you might need it.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 11:53

Mar 6, 2013 -- 11:50AM, Lix wrote:

no chance of a contrived result in the 1st test. with nearly 400 overs remaining the best chance of a result is something like this.Eng score 400 in 110 overs.Kiwis score 280 in 85Eng score 300/6d in 85 overs.Eng set NZ 420 in 110 ish overs.

like the scenario. Problem for me is likelihood of more rain isn't

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 11:54

Problem for me is likelihood of more rain isn't

By:

kc2000 When: 06 Mar 13 11:54

Mar 6, 2013 -- 11:44AM, nigelpm1 wrote:

Mar 6, 2013 -- 11:42AM, Darlo Bantam wrote:Definitely agree with that nigel in principle. Only proviso for me is what chances are there of the captains reaching something of a contrived result.minimal for me. Cook is so conservative.

I would fill my boots at 1.01 no contrived result, it just doesn't happen in test cricket. Unless of course the players have laid the draw big time !

If England were the right price at 1.6 pre toss, then they are too big at 3 now.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 11:54

AGHHHH!!!! Remember not to use angled brackets! Problem for me is likelihood of more rain isn't less than 50% and poor light could well stop play

By:

Lix When: 06 Mar 13 11:58

i can understand the kiwis prices yesterday. not many were expecting a washout including many at the ground
at lunchtime. If NZ were bowling at us in gloomy damp conditions i fancy they could have got us 3-4 down in
the evening session.

Eng should now be batting tomo in bright sunshine so the chances of us losing 3-4 wkts to the new ball are much
less. we may well get to bowl at NZ under some cloud cover on Friday tho. dont fancy NZ's openers much if so.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 12:02

Mar 6, 2013 -- 11:58AM, Lix wrote:

i can understand the kiwis prices yesterday. not many were expecting a washout including many at the groundat lunchtime. If NZ were bowling at us in gloomy damp conditions i fancy they could have got us 3-4 down in the evening session. Eng should now be batting tomo in bright sunshine so the chances of us losing 3-4 wkts to the new ball are much less. we may well get to bowl at NZ under some cloud cover on Friday tho. dont fancy NZ's openers much if so.

This surprises me. Most forecasts suggested a washout. A few web cams in Dunedin I was looking at just before lunch showed serious rain coming down and knowing hoe bad the ground's drainage is at that point 30 overs max were possible.

By:

Lix When: 06 Mar 13 12:04

was almost nothing on the rain radar all day!! fkin useless thing!

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 12:06

Mar 6, 2013 -- 12:04PM, Lix wrote:

was almost nothing on the rain radar all day!! fkin useless thing!

They sure are useless and generally a waste of time I reckon albeit the European ones for UK test matches seems to work quite well.

By:

Lix When: 06 Mar 13 12:08

if peeps were expecting a washout on day1, the draw wouldnt have been as high as 3.7 before the test nigel.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 12:14

Mar 6, 2013 -- 12:08PM, Lix wrote:

if peeps were expecting a washout on day1, the draw wouldnt have been as high as 3.7 before the test nigel.

That's true. There was good money to be made on Edgbaston test last year - price steamed in pre-match in that case though.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 12:17

Makes me think that this market isn't the most efficient

By:

deansthemann When: 06 Mar 13 12:19

fair play nigel you have talked alot of sense on this thread

aftertiming but nz were a maximum lay before the toss yesterday ( i went in at wrong time but up to my eyeballs in them at 8.4 early in day) ... toss goes nz's way, rain comes nz are even more a max lay at under 7 at one stage... rain turns this game into a 4 day test match and nz are even more a max lay at 10.5 now

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 12:22

PS - I wasn't the only one on the draw :

http://megarainuk.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/1st-test-nzealand-v-england-dunedin-day.html

By:

Lix When: 06 Mar 13 12:40

kiwis being backed at 8-1 now

I give them a fighting chance but not at this price. more like 13/14/1 for me

By:

metal guru When: 06 Mar 13 13:14

they're an utterly rancid price to back now at 9.6 compared to the price after winning the toss yesterday.forecast suggests england batting with the sun out tomorrow instead of under clouds and with a day lost the kiwis have to bowl engaland fairly cheaply twice.agreed that i couldn't have them on my mind at anything shorter than 14/1

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 13:24

Madness - I get the "trade" aspect and players out of practice but NZ don't have a great bowling attack.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 13:33

Trying to see the NZ rationale :

I'd be amazed if we get less than 300 runs which would take out all of day 2.

Day 3 : NZ also bat most of day and get 250.

Day 4 : ENG get 250 on harder pitch and out just before close.

Day 5: NZ need 300 +

Just can't see it

By:

Lix When: 06 Mar 13 13:35

they have their best attack in years imo.

Boult
Southee
Martin
Wagner

This is Waaaay better than the likes of C Martin, Mills, Franklin, Oram, Vettori, O Brien etc..

They bowled out SA last year for 238 and 253 in two of the tests.

With 98 overs to be bowled you can expect a lot more than 250 runs in a day from either team. more like 330 imo.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 13:37

Mar 6, 2013 -- 1:35PM, Lix wrote:

they have their best attack in years imo.BoultSoutheeMartin WagnerThis is Waaaay better than the likes of C Martin, Mills, Franklin, Oram, Vettori, O Brien etc.. They bowled out SA last year for 238 and 253 in two of the tests.With 98 overs to be bowled you can expect a lot more than 250 runs in a day from either team. more like 330 imo.

sorry, I'm assuming we don't get all 98 overs in. NZ's best attack maybe - don't think that really says much.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 13:38

9/1 about right if we don't get any more delays.

By:

Lix When: 06 Mar 13 13:39

you dont have to quote everything nigel..

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 13:42

Mar 6, 2013 -- 1:39PM, Lix wrote:

you dont have to quote everything nigel..

It's easier - people don't know what you are referring to otherwise.

By:

d13phe When: 06 Mar 13 13:46

difficult to bet on this without seeing the pitch

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 13:48

Mar 6, 2013 -- 1:46PM, d13phe wrote:

difficult to bet on this without seeing the pitch

True. Plenty of money around been made and a ball hasn't yet been bowled mind.

By:

Darlo Bantam When: 06 Mar 13 14:03

Mar 6, 2013 -- 1:46PM, d13phe wrote:

difficult to bet on this without seeing the pitch

Quite. Which is why I've barely made any move so far. More than £3m matched already despite the fact the match essentially hasn't started.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 14:13

Mar 6, 2013 -- 2:03PM, Darlo Bantam wrote:

Mar 6, 2013 -- 1:46PM, d13phe wrote:difficult to bet on this without seeing the pitchQuite. Which is why I've barely made any move so far. More than £3m matched already despite the fact the match essentially hasn't started.

That's the beauty of the weather! I personally love these movements.

By:

Darlo Bantam When: 06 Mar 13 14:29

I made a small gain as the draw moved in, but these movements are less my thing - which is why betting wise I much prefer T20s or ODIs to Tests.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 14:33

Mar 6, 2013 -- 2:29PM, Darlo Bantam wrote:

I made a small gain as the draw moved in, but these movements are less my thing - which is why betting wise I much prefer T20s or ODIs to Tests.

I might give up on T20's - too much volatility for my liking and I get suckered into backing short odds

By:

Biscar Two from a mile back When: 06 Mar 13 15:41

Whats the chances of a clear 4 days play ?

By:

Asparagus Man When: 06 Mar 13 15:52

Draw price getting nervy again back into 1.66.

By:

lostboy182 When: 06 Mar 13 16:26

Look at the previous matches here over the last 5 years. This pitch doesnt deteriorate but gets better - day 5 is easier to play on then day 1. It plays the way Lords/Gabba does.

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 16:36

Weather for Fri/Sat looks increasingly like some showers again - probably not more than 30/40 overs lost in total but that could be enough to swing it - hence Draw nerves - going to be like that for the rest of the test I imagine.

http://www.dunedin.govt.nz/council-online/weather_information

By:

TwoTonTed When: 06 Mar 13 17:29

forecast all over the shop, expecting some big dives on the draw as we go unless heaps of wickets fall on what may be a flat one (+no Swann)

By:

Injera When: 06 Mar 13 17:46

Fancy England at the price IF they were bowling which they're not.

Think it's on the short side.

By:

peckerdunne When: 06 Mar 13 18:36

Agree with Lix 'unquote'

By:

Lix When: 06 Mar 13 19:28

pecker

Expecting a v tough 1st session for england. maybe back the draw at evens+ after a few wkts. pitch should be decent on days 4 and 5. this might mean kiwis can chase something big (300+ perhaps)

By:

nigelpm1 When: 06 Mar 13 20:18

looking quite cloudy:

http://media.wickednetworks.co.nz/current-stclair.jpg

By:

Lix When: 06 Mar 13 20:25

good bowling conditions...

By:

currant bun When: 06 Mar 13 20:27

dry on report from ground on skyspts news 5 mins ago