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Surprised the draw is at 4s minimum, Eng 1.67, NZ sevens. Dunedin just sounds like a rainy place, decent back to lay pre match? Less than seven grand matched so far.
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You'd back the draw based on the fact Dunedin 'sounds like a rainy place'?
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It is a rainy place but NZ going to get killed by us! My bet is lay NZ at any price.
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Havent decided yet charkitz, still doing research, this thread is part of the research. Rain forecast for the three days before the game then stopping in time, Still a week away so largely up in the air.
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So are you saying rob that the $4 price for the draw would only be accurate if there was no chance of rain? Draw seems difficult to price for this match
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The history doesn't really help here as it's a relatively new ground:
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/ground/58827.html?class=1;template=results;type=aggregate 4 Tests in the past 4 years - 2 draws. Against WI - http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/366705.html - 2 days rained off Against SA - http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/520603.html - 1 day lost to rain I reckon both would have been results with no rain mind so the weather will be key here. Less than a day lost though and laying the draw might be the right call. |
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be lucky to see day 4 in any of these if new zealand bat first. only 1 test class batsman in the nz side. some real low scores on the cards
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Agree with you nigel english 2013 very strong batting and bowling unit. Black caps 2013 big question marks only mc slogger and taylor and possible williamson of a similar class of english. A lot depends on the pitch and weather as to wheather english win or the game lasts the distance. Forcast is for little rain for 5 days. Game may have great opps to trade inplay if patient. cannot lay nz at 9 now as do not like seeing big reds at start. Hard to c english falter good team and conditions similar to uk facing a bowling line up that is average at best. im hoping nz show some fight and do not crumble and dunedin gets a competive game and i make money
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The forecast isn't looking great...
http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/dunedin Kiwi lay could be the go. If this is only a 4 day game or less then the Kiwis will struggle to bowl England out twice. |
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yeah, time to look at the weather.
Doesn't look like much of a problem to me : http://www.yr.no/place/New_Zealand/Otago/Dunedin/long.html http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-NZXX0009?cm_ven=cricinfo_UK&cm_cat=grounds&cm_ite=weather&cm_pla=10day Might lose half a days play tops. More than enough time for a result. |
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Depends which website you look at I suppose, personally I'm gunna trust information from the New Zealand Met over that of the weather channel! Whether the players and umpires are willing to play through drizzle could be the key to how much time is lost.
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Certainly a series to keep an eye on the local weather.
I expect England to have some tricky sessions and even days in this series. Kiwis not as hopeless at home as you might think - they have only been 'whitewashed' twice this century, by Australia in 2000 (3-0) and again in 2010 (2-0) which is not too bad considering mostly two and three match series. |
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shirley thats cos it rains a lot and cos kiwis are dumb enough to schedule tests well into March every year
which is like eng playing tests in late sept.  if the kiwis and saffers could kindly start their seasons earlier (say November) and be totally done by March, we could move the IPL forward from March to mid April and EVERYONE could play it in its entirety. |
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Far too much common sense in that proposal Lix
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Ok, now within the two day window so forecast come into play and it looks like the first day could be a washout:
http://www.yr.no/place/New_Zealand/Otago/Dunedin/long.html All other days look fine now though so would still expect a result so draw might be worth a back to lay here although I see price has already moved in to 3.5. The local weather report posted by Charkitx looks worse though :http://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/dunedin |
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Laid NZ even more given weather uncertainty and it looks like Bracewell might be out:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/newzealand/9906692/New-Zealand-v-England-Doug-Bracewell-must-prove-fitness-for-first-Test-after-mystery-party-injury.html |
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1.71 eng is a gift.
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The worst forecast I've seen is a 13% chance of rain on a couple of days....it's mostly just cloudy.This NZ side are very very poor indeed,I doubt any of their players would make it into any other international teams.If the weather forecast is accurate with no disruptions the game could well be over by day 4.
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Dodgers probably just annoyed that he layed the draw at around $4 like I did
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kiwis bowled out saffers for under 250 here last yr. ball swings about in Dunedin. defo a result venue if
the rain stays away. much rather lay the draw than NZ at nearly 8/1. a few eng players gonna be pretty undercooked like KP and Compton. |
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Well a back to lay of the draw at 4plus was a good call in the end. 3.4 now to lay. I didnt follow my own advice for what its worth but will either back england or lay the draw before kick off.
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Forecast is defo for rain tomorrow, might wait for the draw lay/england back.
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might only rain for an hr or so tomo then be clear for the rest of the test. draw is silly short imo
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England same price now as when the draw was 4.0 to back.
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Draw 3.6 with stan james, 3.35 to lay on here.
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Right, latest weather forecast looks better so I've taken a lay fair sized lay on the draw.
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Doesn't rain that much in Dunedin. Basically drizzle and cloud. England's biggest problem will be homesickness, cos the weather will remind them of England.
The draw much too short. |
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wait and see the deck; I expect it be relatively benign. Ross Taylor; one of NZ's few Test class players, has had a couple of decent knocks here. 94 and 59 (run out) v Pak in 2009. NZ got 400+ in 131 overs going first in that match, and this was a Pak attack featuring Mohammad Asif, taking 108/4.
Cant see the home authorities serving up a raging green top given the economic realities of filing 5 days of content for Sky. Not to say I'm steaming in to a draw price of 3.5 given the difference between the sides but wouldn't want to be on Eng for size at 50/0 and 2.0 if NZ win the toss. |
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depends whether you see 1.7 Eng as long term value. I think it is although wary of eng being poor in 1st
away tests of a series. Draw is being laid at 11/4 at billies if you fancy it |
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cant have an opinion on the 1.7 until I've seen some balls being bowled on the pitch. could make a guess, but hey, this thread doesn't need another guess ;)
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so you cant price a test until you've seen the pitch then poppa?
 with 400+ overs v likely here I make 1.7 on the big side whether we play on the M25 or Hackney marshes. |
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I can price a Test when I know what to expect from the pitch. This one I'd be guessing. It depends.
(Presumably it depends for everybody, whether they realise it or not...Interesting theoretical debate there). There'll be plenty of time to get things organised once I've seen what's what. I envy your certainty. Good luck with the Test. |
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Bracewell confirmed as out and according to the Farming show yesterday 5 full days play is unlikely although there are no long periods of rain currently predicted. Should be plenty time for the NZ full team to win by an innings. Also talking of playing 4 seamers and leaving out Bruce Martin the spinner
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Very happy to lay NZ here - rain could well impede a result and ENG are good enough to not lose 20 wickets to the poor bowling of NZ.
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