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*** England v West Indies, 1st Test Lord's, Day 1 ***
*** England v West Indies, 1st Test Lord's, Day 1 ***
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Replies: 537
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morse
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Millionaire_Morse 17 May 12 10:29
the draw is a cert i'm taking the free money He then changed his mind and said England were a cert. W Indies are a cert shirley now. |
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I only bet on Cricket these days when I believe the odds are wrong.
I believe the odds are wrong! 181 on the 5th Day at Lords with just 8 wickets is a tough ask. |
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It shouldn't be a particularly tough ask. The Lords pitch doesn't deteriorate and has seen plenty of runs in winning, drawing and losing causes on the fifth day in recent years, it's really nine wickets not 8, the forecast is good and the Windies attack will tire pretty quickly.
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Would be tough at 20-4. All about the new ball.
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Lot might depend on overhead conditions, if sun out then fancy england should do it by about 5 wickets.
Pitch still playing very well once ball gets little older, fact entire wi tail could make contributions tells you that. Other issue for wi is sammy and co backing up front two. |
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who's backing @ 1.24?
The risk reward on that trade is awful. |
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hmm.. I'm actually tempted to back England here as my first bet. I think Steptoes has it right.
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nigel u still going
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haha. Yeah
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actually think england should win but not without a scare or 2 thats why 1.24 is a poor value trade as much more likely to get 1.5 england before they go 1.05 imo
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if you think they go to 1.05 - 1.24 is surely value is it not?
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1.5 is different to 1.05, it's about 10 x different
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Just sold Englands runs at 186 with Sporting Index. If England win they will score between 191-196(much more likely to be at the lower end) If England lose or they get the weather forecast wrong it could be 100 or less therefore I believe that is better value than laying at 1.24 although I believe that is good value. The odds are based on that fact that the batting side is ranked number 1 at home to number 7 but imo both teams are stronger at bowling than batting. England are no 1 because of their bowling and not their batting which was very poor in the winter whereas the bowling was excellent. Windies batting is very poor despite having the worlds best batsman in the team(I dont need to name him) Without him they would be no better than Bangladesh imo. He has now top scored 6 times out of the last 7 innings (excluding 1 second innings v australia when they only had to bat a short time for a draw) which shows how much they depend on him. Windies bowling however is half decent and Roach was on good form today. England started the match heavy favourites deservedly and the first innings was about as expected for both teams. however Windies scored about 100 more than expected in 2nd inns and England are already about 40 runs below par in 2nd inns so if you offered windies this position at the start of the match they would snap your hand off. Has every one forgotten when England chased 142 against Pakistan and were all out for 71 only about 6 months ago? Ok Windies arnt Pakistan and they playing in England but 181 with 8 wickets remaining is a lot more than 142 with 10
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chances are though the price will never get to 1.5
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most posters on forums around the web have England to win and Swann seems incredibly confident - like he says they'd have taken 200 to chase at the start and they scored almost 400 in the first innings.
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2 down but 1 is the number 11
As said will wait and see what conditions are like in the morning pitch is still very good as often is at lords days 4 and 5 |
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In 1st inns they lost the 2nd wicket at 194. Slightly different this time!
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Three first-class matches played at Lord's this spring. The 4th innings scores were:
Worcs bowled out for 150 chasing 283 Durham held on for a draw at 82-6 chasing 130. Surrey bowled out for 137 chasing 141 .Yes, conditions tomorrow should be the best seen this year and, yes, Cook, Trott and Pietersen are truly top-class batsmen. But 2/9 is an appalling price to chase 191 at Lord's this spring. |
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not overly relevant since :
1) The light was awful 2) They were knackered from fielding all day 3) The 2nd Wicket is the no.11 4) Strauss is often inconsistant Ultimately, the market has weighed all that in and price is back to 1.2. Some very big money backing England at 1.2 as well. Let's wait and see but the market tells you England are nailed on. |
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no position by the way
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not sure how relevant county cricket is in this situation but interesting stat - thanks for sharing
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get through the first 10 overs and england will walk it
feck it up early, and ....well......fecked it really |
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The county matches have some relevance, but I have to admit that the Middlesex seam attack that has kept skittling the opposition in the final innings this spring is stronger than that of the West Indies imo.
Steven Finn, Tim Murtagh, Gareth Berg and Toby Roland-Jones are probably more formidable on their home ground than Roach, Edwards, Gabrial and Sammy will be tomorrow. And, as I said, Cook, Trott and Pietersen are definitely classier than, for example, Steve Davies, Jacques Rudolph and Mark Ramprakash, who folded to 22-3 for Surrey. But even so, nine to two ON with those stats ...  |
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The early morning could be quite difficult looking at the weather forecast (Overcast/Cloudy). If England can get through the the first half of the session it will become easier with the sun coming out and the ball getting softer. If an early wicket they could trade at 1.4 or so but I think they will be careful early doors and go on to win.
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I think the prices are about right - this could easily be a train, and England's batting has good depth.
Those who fancy WI to get some early but England to win probably better off going unders on Cook / Trott runs? |
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How relevant are those county scores though Screaming? Dont they use an entirely different strips for all the internationals at Lords? (and other test venues)
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*strip
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the m/sex\worcs game was set up after tons of rain only allowed 1 days play in first 3
worcs were chasing that 280 on final day for win |
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The more I look at the eng side, the more i feel 1.21 is great value. Eng could have got more on the 1st innings but they were overconfident and expected to cruise to victory. Now they have just the right amount of pressure on them, I expect a very easy win. I am however going to watch the first over or 2 before I back them. No hurry!!!
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and worcester ain't exactly the strongest batting line up in div 1
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I'm with screaming 2-9 to chase donw the joint 4th highest target ever chased in the 4th innings of a test at lords doo me a favour., think it's probably 10-15 ticks too low.
as the punters have pointed out, all about the 1st hour |
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has any team ever bowled as many no balls as these west Indies lads?
It comes to something when the total their defending is significantly hampered by the amount of no balls they've given away! 12 in the first innings, 8 by Roach! 3 already in this innings, which were (apart from 1) the only balls England also scored runs from! |
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punters and pundits*
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market loved these 5 runs
1.13 |
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I'm with screaming 2-9 to chase donw the joint 4th highest target ever chased in the 4th innings of a test at lords doo me a favour., think it's probably 10-15 ticks too low.
4th innings is often easiest time to bat here. be pretty shocked if Eng lose this. looking for a bigger price to get on em if anything. |
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true lix, but 4th innings chases on day 5 with the pressure on are never straight forward. England favs not doubting that, just wouldn't have gone anywhere near the 2-9 this morning
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