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Cricket
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These 1549 comments are related to the topic:
*** laydraw or back2fav etc, continued ***
*** laydraw or back2fav etc, continued ***
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Replies: 1,549
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Im surprised that the lay draw continue to out perform all other options by such a big margin. Its a winning strategy for sure :) But you would think people would cotton on so to speak... I guess its the psychology of it, covering for an eventual draw etc. At this stage with so many matches these figures are statistically significant as well... wow.
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p.s keep up the good work crunchyfrog, its appreciated
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Ah yes, the usual debate about the draw SP. We all know that test matches don't usually end in a draw, but we can't resist a good old "back-to-lay" strategy! Long may it continue
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Match 216: backfav
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Great work you put in to these tables crunchyfrog,much appreciated,good luck.
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nice one Crunchy!
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Match 217: Eng v Aus, 2nd test, Lord's ...
Eng 2.08; draw 3.4 Aus 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 217: backfav
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the lay the draw profit just keeps gaining P&L amazing that this edge still hasn't been eroded. Someone will eventually realise the biggest impact of 20/20 cricket has been its impact on the likelyhood of drawn test matches.
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Match 218: Eng v Aus, 3rd test, Old Trafford ...
Eng 1.9; draw 3.7 Aus 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 218: backdraw
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Match 219: Eng v Aus, 4th test, Chester-le-Street ...
Eng 2.14; draw 3.55 Aus 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 219: backfav
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Match 220: Eng v Aus, 5th test, The Oval ...
Eng 2.18; draw 3.5 Aus 3.75 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 221: Zim v Pak, 1st test, Harare ...
Zim 18.5; draw 5.2; Pak 1.32 | ||||||||||||||||
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thank you crunchyfrog, interesting and useful,as always
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Match 220: back2fav and backdraw
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Match 222: Zim v Pak, 2nd test, Harare ...
Zim 9.2; draw 7.2; Pak 1.32 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 221: backfav
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Match 222: backdog
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Match 223: Ban v NZ, 1st test, Chittagong ...
Ban 7; draw 1.98; NZ 2.82 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 224: Pak v SA, 1st test, Abu Dhabi ...
Pak 5.4; draw 2.72; SA 2.22 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 223: backfav
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Match 224: backdog
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well done for your continued efforts and studious work Crunchy ,I'm grateful for your excellent insight and analysis , I hope u been laying the draw over the years
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Match 225: Ban v NZ, 2nd test, Dhaka ...
Ban 5.5; draw 1.8; NZ 3.65 | ||||||||||||||||
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So is just Laying draw best or Back to Lay Draw?
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These figures are simply for bets before the start of the match. Back-to-lay in running can obviously be profitable, but it is dificult to quantify as easily!
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Hey cruncyfrog.. firstly thank you for your analysis on this phenomena. I am too laying the draw as a profitable strategy. But I have wondered (just do not have the time to do the research) if "laying the draw at the start of the 2nd day" may not be more profitable than laying the draw before the match begins. Do you have any anecdotal evidence to support this view? Regards.
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Nope, I have no record of test match odds at the start of the second day. Sounds like an interesting strategy though!
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Match 226: Pak v SA; 2nd test, Dubai ...
Pak 3.8; draw 3.25; SA 2.28 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 225: backfav
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Match 226: backfav
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Match 227: Ind v WI; 1st test, Kolkata ...
Ind 1.83; draw 2.92; WI 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 227: backfav
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I notice the draw lay section (the overriding winner here) is calculated without commission being subtracted. Any idea what the figures would be with this considered? Could be devastating to the p+l if using 5% as a nominal figure?
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Indeed, laydraw(-5% commission) = +£1639.75
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Thanks crunchy - a smaller proportion of the total than I thought it may be actually. The other greens must be well into the red after commission I'd guess.
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Match 228: Ind v WI; 2nd test, Mumbai ...
Ind 1.53; draw 3.75; WI 11.5 | ||||||||||||||||
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Match 228: backfav
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