USA V China

The USA caught up with the Chinese in the gold medal race yesterday (18 all now), and as usual the markets over-reacted.
China went from 1.40 to 2.38. Great value on China now IMO. I grabbed as much as I could at anything over 2.20.
China is gonna sweep the badminton, diving and table tennis. Plus they will grab plenty of gold in gymnastics, trampoline
and whats left of the weight-lifting. Plus a few other big chances in other sports. Thats a lot of gold! Cant see the USA
beating that total. USA should win the total medal tally tho, but the odds are too short.

Still neck and neck in the gold medal race (total medals too).
USA 26
China 25

But with the swimming now over, I think the main source of gold medals for the USA
has dried up. Their only other hopes for keeping up with China will be a super effort
in Track and Field.

On the other hand, China has plenty more golds coming in diving (4), table tennis (2),
badminton (2), gymnastics (few) and couple more less expected sources.

Anything over 40 golds should win the race and I still expect China to finish ahead.

Definitely money to be made in this market, I'll analyze the medals to be given out from today till next sunday and see if I'll back the 1.5 or lay it, will post it up too if anyone is interested

Definitely interested owning.

Piled into China most golds at start but swimming has been killing me.

Seems 90% of USA's golds are swimming ones.

Seriously thinking of piling back in on China if your analysis backs it up (also interested in most overall medals)

PPower going a stand out 9/4 China most golds.

Won't last long get on now.

cant see more than 10 gold medals for China either ... but still have to analyze athletics

more than 10 additional gold medals that is

halfway through my analysis and china definitely MORE THAN 10 definite gold medals

diving + badminton already 6 golds

and table tennis 2 more ... then there is gymnastics artistic ( especially ) and gymnastics rhytmic ... should be another 3-4 more ... hmmm

so 12-13 more golden would be good guess

yeah minimally would expect 8 golds in the bag for the chinese, excluding artistic gym, which is a little more unpredictable

still ... USA has a LOT of possibilities to grab gold with athletics , basketball ( men and women ) , volleyball ( men and women ) , boxing , volleyball (women) , beach volleyball ( women ) , tennis ( doubles women + men )  and gymnastics ( artistic )

Ok done with my analysis and its very tight i must say. I have USA with 12 more CERTAIN golds and China with 11 more CERTAIN golds, but for those 50/50 chances, USA has 8 while China has 5. "Value" definitely with China at current prices

It's also good to note that for China, their CERTAIN GOLDS are REALLY certain, like diving, table tennis, and badminton where they are in a league of their own, on the other hand, for USA, denitely basketball men's women's, beach volleyball, but the BULK comes from athletics, which might fail them

Sorry make that USA 14 and China 11, forgot to include tennis and football

i recommend laying USA and then backing at higher odds when it goes out, basketball men's on the last day, also, note that there is also a potential game changer in the men's 110m hurdles as top 2 favs are from USA and China, so could be the event that tilts the balance here. I currently have this event in favor of USA

I agree with you T20man. Around 40 gold for the winner (plus or minus a couple) should be about the mark.
It should be close, I too think USA will have to do very well in athletics to hold off the Chinese. Even the total medals will be closer than most think. USA very short- considering that projected gap seems to be closing.

Correct Stevo, I have USA as a cert to win 7 gold in athletics and another 5 events where they are either second fav or very small fav

i dont see value on China to be honest
it's a no bet for me

theres 1 gold possibly lost for the USA in the womens vault.

or maybe not, guess you can fall and still win the gold!

commentators made a mess of that looks like a pretty certain US gold not won in the ladies vault.

China will be leading in the medal table end of today for sure

IF sanya richards win, then it will be cancelled out by wu minxia's gold (CERT) in 3m springboard diving, if she doesn't, huge advantage to china

I counted Gymnastics women's vault as a cert for USA, its gone and China got the men's floor gold

so something like 1 gold medal advantage for USA at the moment, they cannot afford to give away another CERT gold

Problem for China is that USA will come home with a rush in the team sports (2 x bball, waterpolo, volleyball)

Today's gymastics will key - China favoured in 3 of the 4 events.

Correct JustWinBaby, China should take out a few gymnastics today + womens table tennis.
USA only have women's floor for gold, providing Sally Person wins the hurdles which she should.
Therefore, China should pull ahead by a few - projected (approx) results after today:

China 36 gold, 21 silver, 16 bronze, 73 total
USA 30 gold, 18 silver, 22 bronze, 70 total

Hmmm so China backers should sit tight for now?

China 2/2 so far in the gymnastics today

China out of the womens volleyball though where they'd have been expecting a medal

Don't think they were expected to medal there. They picked up the quinella in the beam..

they were/are ranked 3rd in the world so would've expected the semi's at least

I am on China most golds..

Alexandra Raisman favourite to gold on the Floor exercise though

Nailed it...

The Beeb have been deafening in their silence with regard to this tussle.

Very poor. If we're keen to be 3rd and win more golds that Beijing, we should take an interest in who finished top.

USA still masive favourites to win more medals but china have the lead...

China not much golds henceforth, their anchor events, badminton, table tennis, diving mostly over. USA still have a couple of gold medals in athletics, 2 in basketball, volleyball, beach volleyball, and also women's football all in with a chance to win gold

Going to look into this, after tonight to see if there is any value around.

As we approach the last few days of competition, China currently with 34 Golds and USA with 31 Golds (All USA Women's Beach Volleyball Finals included). Below is a summary of medal prospects for both nations. It will be pretty close.

For USA, they have a possibility of adding 14 more golds to their tally, with 7 that they SHOULD get, 3 that they are LIKELY to get, and the remaining 4 which they require some help from opponents or an outstanding performance.

7: Men's 110m Hurdles, Men's Decathlon, Women's 200m, Women's 4x400m Relay, Basketball Men's, Basketball Women's, Football Women's
3: Men's 4x400m Relay, Men's Triple Jump, Women's Water Polo
4: Women's 400m Hurdles, Women's 4x100m Relay, Women's Long Jump, Women's High Jump

As you can see, majority of their remaining medal hauls will come from athletics, so they really need to shine on the track. I would say a reasonable and probable total gold tally for USA would be in the region of 38.

For China, they have a possibility of adding 6 more golds to their tally, with 3 that they SHOULD get and, 3 that they are LIKELY to get.

3: Men's 10m Diving, Women's 10m Diving, Men's Table Tennis Team
3: Men's Boxing Light Fly, Women's Taekwondo 49Kg, Women's Taekwondo 57Kg

A reasonable total medal tally for China would be in the region of 38 as well.

I am not sure if I missed out any other sports. Current prices definitely take into account that USA has more chances at gold than China in the remaining days but how many of these chances their athletes can convert is another question, bearing in mind that there are lots of uncertainties in track and field events as well.

Good analysis. Looks like USA's superiority in the team sports will ultimately clinch it for them

Hello Guys,

i have a (probably very stupid) question:

I don´t understand why does the ratio for USA falls so extremely?? Back 1.15 for USA, 3 for China ...

Of course there are more possibilities for the USA than for China, but nevertheless it looks strange for me.

What do you think?

Greet,
Frank

I really hope China do it just to p8ss off Lineker!

Frank, not that many gold opportunities left for China, whereas USA have plenty of favourites in athletics and the team sports, basketball etc. which they are expected to win.
USA have MANY more medal chances left than China which should dry up significantly after thurs (diving, table tennis).

Good analysis owning, I have USA to get just over 40.

Thanks Steve ... sounds reasonably ;-)
good analysis owning, tx ;-)

Owning seems to forgot to analyze China's women boxing , Wrestling and women 20km walk in athletics. according to chinese press back home all of which hold gold medal chance.

Aug 8, 2012 -- 6:00PM, Mr Wong wrote:

Owning seems to forgot to analyze China's women boxing , Wrestling and women 20km walk in athletics. according to chinese press back home all of which hold gold medal chance.

hmm my bad, i thought the 20km walk is over. I'm not very good in boxing and wrestling so could only research on whatever is available to me, maybe you might wanna add on to it?

Joined:
02 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 2 | Blogger: Mr Wong's blog
Owning seems to forgot to analyze China's women boxing , Wrestling and women 20km walk in athletics. according to chinese press back home all of which hold gold medal chance.


Get your blog back going Mr Wong
still trading from a shop or did you go trackside?

Hi owning,
Naturally i want China to win the most gold medal.:) Back in China , we expect to win about 40 gold medals, so i think China has about an even money chance of winning the most gold medal market.

Hi Buzzer,
Go trackside nowaday,mainly southern tracks, at kempton now:)

Thought you would have done
What's Heynoodles up to nowadays?

Moving day for the Americans tonight - Merritt, Felix, Felix and womens beach volleyball gold.

Sorry Reese

China should win the 49kg womens taekwondo as well

just wizzed through all the events and got a rough estimate of China's expectation being 39 golds with the USA at 41 golds (I calculated it quantitatively, e.g. odds of 2.5 on betfair = 0.4 gold medals)

Imagine this would make China a little short if anything

This is going to be very close - may come down to the most silver. My own estimation is that China will win another 5 or 6, and the US another 7 or 8. I think China will win with both remaining boxers (Cancan should be fav IMO), both remaining diving competitions (very likely),and at least one from the 20k walk and taikwondo. If this plays out, US will need both basketball golds (likely), plus volleyball, water polo, and three (again, likely) from athletics. US should be favourites, but not prohibitively so.

Spot on chosen, USA are favourite in wrestling 74kg with Jordan Burroughs too.

USA are through to the gold medal match of women's football also.. so have a few up their sleeve currently.

USA women's middleweight Sheilds..nailed on gold, shes in the final already, cant see her ever mentioned in your analysis.

The latest going by the beeb is:
China: 36G, 22S, 19B, giving a total of 77
US: 34G, 22S, 25B, giving a total of 81

The Chinese media use the criteria that a gold medal is greater than any no. of silver medals and a silver medal is greater than any no. of bronze medals which puts them top.
The US media just use total medal count which puts them top.
The system of gold=3 pts, silver=2 pts and bronze=1 pt has them dead even

Boxing gold for the US.

USA's got it in the bag now, will be level on golds with China when Ashton Eaton completes the decathlon. And to come they have:

Athletics - Men's 4x100m relay (4.0), Men's 4x400 relay (1.61), Men's triple jump, Christian Taylor (1.54), William Claye (6.6), Women's 4x100m relay (2.06), Women's 4x400m relay (1.47)
Basketball - Women's (1.05), Men's (1.08)
Football - Women's (1.52)
Volleyball - Women's (1.5)
Wrestling - Men's 75kg, Jordan Burroughs (2.2)

Diving gold incoming for china and triple jump gold incoming for USA

USA men's 4x100m in the bag since jamaica is out

jamaica aren't out of the 4x100m final