Olympics 2012
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USA should close the gold medal gap after today (Thurs). I have them down for five whilst China will probably only get two.
USA Gold - Womens Eight, Double trap, womens 200m Breast, mens 200m Backstroke, mens 200m IM.
China Gold - Judo womens 78kg, mens Table tennis.
As for who will win over all..? I don't know, it's going to be VERY close. USA should gain significantly in track and field but China get it back in stuff like badminton, table tennis and bullsh!t sports like trampoline.
USA should just edge them in total medals, but gold is anyone's guess. Thoughts peeps??
USA Gold - Womens Eight, Double trap, womens 200m Breast, mens 200m Backstroke, mens 200m IM.
China Gold - Judo womens 78kg, mens Table tennis.
As for who will win over all..? I don't know, it's going to be VERY close. USA should gain significantly in track and field but China get it back in stuff like badminton, table tennis and bullsh!t sports like trampoline.
USA should just edge them in total medals, but gold is anyone's guess. Thoughts peeps??
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The USA caught up with the Chinese in the gold medal race yesterday (18 all now), and as usual the markets over-reacted.
China went from 1.40 to 2.38. Great value on China now IMO. I grabbed as much as I could at anything over 2.20. China is gonna sweep the badminton, diving and table tennis. Plus they will grab plenty of gold in gymnastics, trampoline and whats left of the weight-lifting. Plus a few other big chances in other sports. Thats a lot of gold! Cant see the USA beating that total. USA should win the total medal tally tho, but the odds are too short. |
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Still neck and neck in the gold medal race (total medals too).
USA 26 China 25 But with the swimming now over, I think the main source of gold medals for the USA has dried up. Their only other hopes for keeping up with China will be a super effort in Track and Field. On the other hand, China has plenty more golds coming in diving (4), table tennis (2), badminton (2), gymnastics (few) and couple more less expected sources. Anything over 40 golds should win the race and I still expect China to finish ahead. |
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Definitely money to be made in this market, I'll analyze the medals to be given out from today till next sunday and see if I'll back the 1.5 or lay it, will post it up too if anyone is interested
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Definitely interested owning.
Piled into China most golds at start but swimming has been killing me. Seems 90% of USA's golds are swimming ones. Seriously thinking of piling back in on China if your analysis backs it up (also interested in most overall medals) |
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PPower going a stand out 9/4 China most golds.
Won't last long get on now. |
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cant see more than 10 gold medals for China either ... but still have to analyze athletics
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more than 10 additional gold medals that is
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halfway through my analysis and china definitely MORE THAN 10 definite gold medals
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diving + badminton already 6 golds
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and table tennis 2 more ... then there is gymnastics artistic ( especially ) and gymnastics rhytmic ... should be another 3-4 more ... hmmm
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so 12-13 more golden would be good guess
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yeah minimally would expect 8 golds in the bag for the chinese, excluding artistic gym, which is a little more unpredictable
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still ... USA has a LOT of possibilities to grab gold with athletics , basketball ( men and women ) , volleyball ( men and women ) , boxing , volleyball (women) , beach volleyball ( women ) , tennis ( doubles women + men ) and gymnastics ( artistic )
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Ok done with my analysis and its very tight i must say. I have USA with 12 more CERTAIN golds and China with 11 more CERTAIN golds, but for those 50/50 chances, USA has 8 while China has 5. "Value" definitely with China at current prices
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It's also good to note that for China, their CERTAIN GOLDS are REALLY certain, like diving, table tennis, and badminton where they are in a league of their own, on the other hand, for USA, denitely basketball men's women's, beach volleyball, but the BULK comes from athletics, which might fail them
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Sorry make that USA 14 and China 11, forgot to include tennis and football
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i recommend laying USA and then backing at higher odds when it goes out, basketball men's on the last day, also, note that there is also a potential game changer in the men's 110m hurdles as top 2 favs are from USA and China, so could be the event that tilts the balance here. I currently have this event in favor of USA
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I agree with you T20man. Around 40 gold for the winner (plus or minus a couple) should be about the mark.
It should be close, I too think USA will have to do very well in athletics to hold off the Chinese. Even the total medals will be closer than most think. USA very short- considering that projected gap seems to be closing. |
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Correct Stevo, I have USA as a cert to win 7 gold in athletics and another 5 events where they are either second fav or very small fav
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i dont see value on China to be honest
it's a no bet for me |
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theres 1 gold possibly lost for the USA in the womens vault.
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or maybe not, guess you can fall and still win the gold!
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commentators made a mess of that looks like a pretty certain US gold not won in the ladies vault.
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China will be leading in the medal table end of today for sure
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IF sanya richards win, then it will be cancelled out by wu minxia's gold (CERT) in 3m springboard diving, if she doesn't, huge advantage to china
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I counted Gymnastics women's vault as a cert for USA, its gone and China got the men's floor gold
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so something like 1 gold medal advantage for USA at the moment, they cannot afford to give away another CERT gold
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Problem for China is that USA will come home with a rush in the team sports (2 x bball, waterpolo, volleyball)
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Today's gymastics will key - China favoured in 3 of the 4 events.
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Correct JustWinBaby, China should take out a few gymnastics today + womens table tennis.
USA only have women's floor for gold, providing Sally Person wins the hurdles which she should. Therefore, China should pull ahead by a few - projected (approx) results after today: China 36 gold, 21 silver, 16 bronze, 73 total USA 30 gold, 18 silver, 22 bronze, 70 total |
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Hmmm so China backers should sit tight for now?
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China 2/2 so far in the gymnastics today
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China out of the womens volleyball though where they'd have been expecting a medal
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Don't think they were expected to medal there. They picked up the quinella in the beam..
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they were/are ranked 3rd in the world so would've expected the semi's at least
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I am on China most golds..
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Alexandra Raisman favourite to gold on the Floor exercise though
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Nailed it...
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The Beeb have been deafening in their silence with regard to this tussle.
Very poor. If we're keen to be 3rd and win more golds that Beijing, we should take an interest in who finished top. USA still masive favourites to win more medals but china have the lead... |