China not much golds henceforth, their anchor events, badminton, table tennis, diving mostly over. USA still have a couple of gold medals in athletics, 2 in basketball, volleyball, beach volleyball, and also women's football all in with a chance to win gold

As we approach the last few days of competition, China currently with 34 Golds and USA with 31 Golds (All USA Women's Beach Volleyball Finals included). Below is a summary of medal prospects for both nations. It will be pretty close.

For USA, they have a possibility of adding 14 more golds to their tally, with 7 that they SHOULD get, 3 that they are LIKELY to get, and the remaining 4 which they require some help from opponents or an outstanding performance.

7: Men's 110m Hurdles, Men's Decathlon, Women's 200m, Women's 4x400m Relay, Basketball Men's, Basketball Women's, Football Women's
3: Men's 4x400m Relay, Men's Triple Jump, Women's Water Polo
4: Women's 400m Hurdles, Women's 4x100m Relay, Women's Long Jump, Women's High Jump

As you can see, majority of their remaining medal hauls will come from athletics, so they really need to shine on the track. I would say a reasonable and probable total gold tally for USA would be in the region of 38.

For China, they have a possibility of adding 6 more golds to their tally, with 3 that they SHOULD get and, 3 that they are LIKELY to get.

3: Men's 10m Diving, Women's 10m Diving, Men's Table Tennis Team
3: Men's Boxing Light Fly, Women's Taekwondo 49Kg, Women's Taekwondo 57Kg

A reasonable total medal tally for China would be in the region of 38 as well.

I am not sure if I missed out any other sports. Current prices definitely take into account that USA has more chances at gold than China in the remaining days but how many of these chances their athletes can convert is another question, bearing in mind that there are lots of uncertainties in track and field events as well.

Hello Guys,

i have a (probably very stupid) question:

I don´t understand why does the ratio for USA falls so extremely?? Back 1.15 for USA, 3 for China ...

Of course there are more possibilities for the USA than for China, but nevertheless it looks strange for me.

What do you think?

Greet,
Frank

Frank, not that many gold opportunities left for China, whereas USA have plenty of favourites in athletics and the team sports, basketball etc. which they are expected to win.
USA have MANY more medal chances left than China which should dry up significantly after thurs (diving, table tennis).

Good analysis owning, I have USA to get just over 40.

Owning seems to forgot to analyze China's women boxing , Wrestling and women 20km walk in athletics. according to chinese press back home all of which hold gold medal chance.

Joined:
02 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 2 | Blogger: Mr Wong's blog
Owning seems to forgot to analyze China's women boxing , Wrestling and women 20km walk in athletics. according to chinese press back home all of which hold gold medal chance.


Get your blog back going Mr Wong
still trading from a shop or did you go trackside?

Hi Buzzer,
Go trackside nowaday,mainly southern tracks, at kempton now:)

Moving day for the Americans tonight - Merritt, Felix, Felix and womens beach volleyball gold.

China should win the 49kg womens taekwondo as well

This is going to be very close - may come down to the most silver. My own estimation is that China will win another 5 or 6, and the US another 7 or 8. I think China will win with both remaining boxers (Cancan should be fav IMO), both remaining diving competitions (very likely),and at least one from the 20k walk and taikwondo. If this plays out, US will need both basketball golds (likely), plus volleyball, water polo, and three (again, likely) from athletics. US should be favourites, but not prohibitively so.

USA are through to the gold medal match of women's football also.. so have a few up their sleeve currently.

The latest going by the beeb is:
China: 36G, 22S, 19B, giving a total of 77
US: 34G, 22S, 25B, giving a total of 81

The Chinese media use the criteria that a gold medal is greater than any no. of silver medals and a silver medal is greater than any no. of bronze medals which puts them top.
The US media just use total medal count which puts them top.
The system of gold=3 pts, silver=2 pts and bronze=1 pt has them dead even

USA's got it in the bag now, will be level on golds with China when Ashton Eaton completes the decathlon. And to come they have:

Athletics - Men's 4x100m relay (4.0), Men's 4x400 relay (1.61), Men's triple jump, Christian Taylor (1.54), William Claye (6.6), Women's 4x100m relay (2.06), Women's 4x400m relay (1.47)
Basketball - Women's (1.05), Men's (1.08)
Football - Women's (1.52)
Volleyball - Women's (1.5)
Wrestling - Men's 75kg, Jordan Burroughs (2.2)

USA men's 4x100m in the bag since jamaica is out

jamaica aren't out of the 4x100m final