Figures going back up?

might change now that johnson is taking direct responsibility.

Very disappointing this. And then you have scenes like Hyde Park.

That would explain the rise

V E day parties?

its down from previous wednesdays but not by much. its appalling tbh.

who are these 8,000 per day of new infections?

We've been locked and isolated for 11 weeks.

where are these new infections coming from?

ESSENTIAL WORKERS, weekend beach parties, etc

there isn't 8000 new infections per day, that data is a wide estimate and nearly a fortnight old

London R rate set to spiral amid the protests, the last thing that the states and the U.K. need, we were both doing bad enough before this.

how do you no cider if you don't no how many people are getting tested, some sources say 1600 positives out of 40,000 people tested 2 days ago ,which would make 8000 an under estimate

Jeez look at Chris wittys face

He's not a happy chappy

to the likes of cider, if numbers of people getting tested was rising fast and positives coming down,dont you think doris/handjob etc would be kiliing themselves to show us the evidence and not hiding it,like they hid 400 deaths to announce lowest deaths in a day on sunday

Cider, are you basing that assertion on BBC TV (Government) Figures?

Radio 4 current affairs programs have been using 8-10,000 for the last 2 or 3 weeks.
Not sure where they get their data from but they generally require verification from trusted peer reviewed sources before they publish.

All I know for certain i that the government figures don't add up and are seasonally adjusted ( taken with a pinch of salt )

E.G.
Gov says that there have been circa 275,000 infection, and circa 40,000 deaths.

That would give a death per infection rate of circa 15%
worldwide accepted death rate is 0.7 to 1.2%

Either the death rate in UK is 10 times rest of world or government figures are fantasy

vallance just said 8000 again

Because they know its 8000

Sorry, I don't use BBC I interrogated the data myself. We get new data tomorrow as I understand it.

The scientists will need to be cautious, and not forecast or extrapolate. On the other hand I can. Bank Holidays do bring in a bit of a random variable, however I'm reasonably confident the estimate will be in the region of 1 in 1350 new cases per day.

I've not investigated any death data to any great extent, only new cases.

I've probably misunderstood what you mean by " I'm reasonably confident the estimate will be in the region of 1 in 1350 new cases per day."

because if you are saying that 1 person in 1350 will be infected per day then if you do the maths across a 60,000,000 population then you are saying you
think 44,000 people will be infected in UK per day?

maybe you could expand on what you mean by "1 in 1350 new cases per day"

The figures are England only, it was 1 in 1000 on the most recent published ONS data.

NEW Positive Cases RISING Daily now in Sweden.

    Sweden     40,803     +2,214    

Officials admitting that they got it wrong - resisting a Lockdown.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Sweden's controversial decision not to impose a strict lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic led to too many deaths, the man behind the policy, Anders Tegnell, has acknowledged.

Sweden has seen a far higher mortality rate than its nearest neighbours and its nationals are being barred from crossing their borders.

Dr Tegnell told Swedish radio more should have been done early on.

"There is quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done."

Sweden has counted 4,542 deaths and 40,803 infections in a population of 10 million, while Denmark, Norway and Finland have imposed lockdowns and seen far lower rates.

I agreed with the ONS, here are my quick calcs from a few days ago:

Based on tests conducted between 27 April and 10 May 2020
Out of the 10,705 participants’ swab tests included in this analysis, 33 individuals in 30 households tested positive for COVID-19.

Based on tests conducted between 4 May and 17 May 2020
Out of the 14,599 participants’ swab tests included in this analysis, 35 individuals in 32 households tested positive for COVID-19

Based on tests conducted between 11 May and 24 May 2020
Out of the 18,913 participants' swab tests included in this analysis, 36 individuals in 27 households tested positive for COVID-19


33/10705
35/14599
36/18913

0.31
0.24
0.19

So 0.19 / 1.86 = 0.1

1 in 1000

1 in 1000 England Only = circa 50,000 new infections per day.

are you saying you think there are 50,000 new infections per day in England?

It's new infections over the week isn't it so 1 in 1350 over 7 days. The daily probability will be around 1 in 9450. Only an estimate of course, can update with some firm data tomoz.

Tests are not randomly selected

What do you expect when 15,000 dickheadss go to hyde park, this bowing 5hit needs to stop now!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8383747/Thousands-Black-Lives-Matter-protestors-head-Londons-Hyde-Park.html


Police officers 'take a knee' in front of angry crowd of 2,000 Black Lives Matter protestors at the gates of Number 10 yelling 'f*** Boris, f*** Trump' as plastic bottles are thrown, an officer is punched and at least one demonstrator arrested

Radio 4's weekly fact checker program "More or less" drilled down into the first of those surveys from ONS a few weeks back.

They said there were at total of 14,000 participant in 7,000 households and that there was no demographic breakdown.
Considering how diverse the UK is from City's through to county towns and villages that the sample size was seriously insufficient.
and no confidence could be assigned to any extrapolation from 7000 households to the 20+ million households in England.


As a pro gambler with a handle on the importance of sample size, I tend to agree with that sentiment.

Yes it's a poor sample. I covered that on the previous thread. The ONS are saying there's not enough positives to work from I tend to agree. 36 out of 18913, as above. I also wrote earlier, the estimate is very wide. But we can't change that, the key point is the last date of capture is 24th May. That estimate is therefore now around two weeks old.

I have a friend, She's an ICU nurse in South London.

3 weeks into the pandemic she was seriously ill with covid symptoms. Took 2 weeks off work to isolate herself.

Returned to work but was deemed to ill to don full PPE and rejoin ICU, and was sent to work somewhere else in the hospital.
Which she described as "Thick with Covid air".

She is now back working on a non covid ICU ward.

She still has not been tested for Covid.

So any statistics on testing should be viewed with caution IMO.


Make up your own mind who and what you believe, other less verified views are available.