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Norwegians being lauded by Boris Bashers for 'locking down in time' but instead of congratulating themselves they have coolly assessed all the data......
The Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.’
Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’ This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective.
The Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.’
Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’ This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective.
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where's that from Tobes?
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It was reported a few days ago originally in a Norwegian english language site. UK/US media only just noticed
https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/norway-could-have-controlled-infection-without-lockdown-health-chief |
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The actual report has been published with graphs and stuff but it is only in Norwegian as far as I can find.
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thanks Tobes, i shall have a peruse in the morrow & get back
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wasn't too long so i've read it. She seems a tad more balanced than some boffins i've listened to or read. And tyis caught my eye...
"The scientific backing was not good enough," I dunno about you Tobes; but i said somewhere else earlier that i get the distinct impression that the world is waking up. just a feeling, but opinions seem to shifting toa more 'steady' response. |
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The world should be ashamed of itself it fell for it in the first place.
a virus??? You've got Australia and New Zealand who are coming out and telling their citizens its "gone", the American media no longer really push data I get the impression it was used to implement this track and trace and mandate needing a phone? the problem they've got now is people are not longer falling for the charade and will reject the need for track and trace because if its not "as bad as first feared" why bother with track and trace? and who else gets the impression the way its going to be used will mean its going to get abused? people will running round looking for "infected" like its a pokemon go hunt, go and catch it all and get 2 weeks off work ffs I think they are backtracking at a rate of knots now, the vaccine? don't think so... properly overplayed it and could come away with nothing |
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I think the vaccine will still be forced where possible especially in the 3rd world.
The delay on the vaccine and extra muddying of the waters could be to stop any possoble vaccine emerging too quick to the point where it looks suspect and too obvious. |
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Gates/Rockefeller have already got Biometric tattoos on over 1 biilion in India I can't see them pulling the plug now they're almost there.
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Just read the track and trace nonsense and...
 Its about as much use as a flaccid co*k, its never going to work it requires people to tell the truth so good luck with that Could be right denzil but what baffles me is why play this game? they own the facking system isn't that enough |
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CNN are still pushing the North Korean rhetoric; but thats more than likely just another Trump bashing excercise. Sky is turning into CNN (not the 1st time i've said that i know) for a channel i used to love, what a fecking change in 3 or 4 years
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Control SS,they have funded and own every facet of society banking,education,health,industry,tech,arms,fuel,energy you name it they've funded it from day 1 and own it either directly or indirectly other than knowing that and the controllers of the pandemic I don't know
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much wants more SS; & do not underestimate the egotism of these billionaire nerds
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There's something amiss with these technocrats their philanthropy is a front a technique first used by JD Rockefeller the worlds first billionaire he created the world of publicity stunts and spin apparently the linkes of Gates Musk and others from silicone valley are never off the box in the US
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135 watching this forum at the mo - yeah right
 even BF is lying to us now. Anyways feck off the lot of yer i'm going for a pint |
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Poteen
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158 now
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hide the tractor ffs. G'nite Denzil & you SS
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goodnight
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Let's see if they can track and trace a brain cell this virus as given a green light to all the control freak dictators the world over some people have played right into their hands I always knew most people are thick just didn't realise how footing thick
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Aside from the thick/gullible they've also tried to make sure people only get to see the official line and are forced to believe it with all the censorship of any contradictory info
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But that doesn't work it never does especially nowadays the media and politicians have zero credibility outside their own following and that following is getting fewer by the day because they little or no appeal among the youth
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The media are no longer making a big song and dance about death numbers, or testing for that matter
Wasn't it about this time last month that they never shut up about some fictitious testing target? that's not been mentioned all month from I can remember They constantly bounce from one major news story (their major story) to another and people haven't the time to really understand it, its kindergarten distraction tactics, just change the lie every 2 minutes We've gone from death figures, to testing figures, to some Scottish bint going to her 2nd home, to care homes, to Ferguson being pushed out, to Cummings having a drive to Durham Death figures anyone?? remember when that's all they ever talked about? 3 months later and there's so many different spins I cannot remember how it all started... wasn't it a bat out of hell? |
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Last time I checked Liverpool were getting trounced by Madrid in ET
And here we are today, trying to work out why Cheltenham is being blamed by one media outlet for the "virus spread" |
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Bat to Pangolin at one point wet markets,Chinese chemical warfare,CIA it's been a full mish mash job from the start,aye Cheltenham was brought up again
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There was talk it was a china bio weapon aye
Way back in early April I think can't remember, seems like years ago in terms of this virus event though We were told millions would die, told to say goodbye to close friends and relatives, here we are 3 months later trying to figure where that bat got to so we can have a word with it And now its excess deaths that seem to be the only number we need to know about, 60,000 excess deaths they say? Errr… *scratches head*.. 37,000 Virus deaths? where's the other 23,000 come from? Do try to keep up, sonta Jeez!!! |
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Norway is assembling a picture of what happened before lockdown and its latest discovery is pretty significant. It is using observed data – hospital figures, infection numbers and so on – to construct a picture of what was happening in March. At the time, no one really knew. It was feared that virus was rampant with each person infecting two or three others – and only lockdown could get this exponential growth rate (the so-called R number) down to a safe level of 1. This was the hypothesis advanced in various graphs by Imperial College London for Britain, Norway and several European countries.
But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.’ Here’s the graph, with the R-number on the right-hand scale: This raises an awkward question: was lockdown necessary? What did it achieve that could not have been achieved by voluntary social distancing? Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’ This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective. Norway’s statistics agency was also the first in the world to calculate the permanent damage inflicted by school closures: every week of classroom education denied to students, it found, stymies life chances and permanently lowers earnings potential. So a country should only enforce this draconian measure if it is sure that the academic foundation for lockdown was sound. And in Stoltenberg’s opinion, ‘the academic foundation was not good enough’ for lockdown this time. The leading article in the new Spectator, out tomorrow, argues that Brits deserve the same candour. There is a wealth of UK data to draw from: 999 calls, infections, hospital data, weekly figures on respiratory infections and some 37,000 Covid deaths. And from this it’s not hard for the UK government to do what the Norwegian and Swedish authorities have done: produce an estimate of the R number dating back to February or March. And use observed data – rather than assumptions and models – to measure the lockdown effect. The results of such a study might make for uncomfortable reading for a government still asking police to enforce lockdown. But these things have a habit of becoming public eventually. There might be a strong story to tell. The UK data, when assembled, might well show that hundreds of thousands would have died without lockdown – and that, while brutal, it was vital. But if the data points to something different, as it has in Norway, then this is a discussion worth having. Our leading article concludes with this point: “ It is time to restore liberty and move to a voluntary system: to ask for continued caution but ask people to use common sense. The country is ready to be trusted. The question is whether the Prime Minister feels ready to trust us. www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid |
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A particularly interesting comment on that piece regarding the exponential growth rate (Thomas Pelham) ...
The killer piece of evidence is there for all who have eyes. Go and download PHE's death by day in English hospitals. Now make a table. Work out a 7 day average - smooths the line. Now take the rate of change of that line by dividing each day's deaths by the previous - that's the exponent. Plot that line. You'll notice that from the VERY start the exponent is gradually decreasing. Between the 10th of March and the 17th of march it reduces from around 1.5 to around 1.25. By the end of march it's only just above 1, and by the 8th it dips below (the peak of deaths) and sits at 0.95 for the rest of the epidemic. What does this mean? It means there's a natural 'brake' force on the spread of the virus; strictly it was never properly exponential. It was slowing before any measures were introduced - ANY at all. (remember deaths on 10th march were 'locked in' to cases around the end of February. Boris was still holidaying with Carrie when this virus' course was plotted.) What else? Notice that the line is pretty straight for chunks of time. Between the 17th March and the 12th of April it's pretty much dead straight; a constantly declining rate of increase (if you follow me). But all of the lockdown stuff happened in that time and should have been perceivable. It should have been noticeable in a pronounced change in the rate of increase. It's not. Lockdown achieved nothing. |
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The Public health/Cambridge University report the Daily Mail quoted from on May 15th.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8322575/Londons-key-coronavirus-R-rate-falling-lockdown.html Suggests that the R rate in London was peaking at the end of February much earlier than was thought the case as things were unravelling. An R value of 3 before the social distancing and work at home if possible advice on March 16th An R value of 2.3 in the 7 days from this advice to Lockdown An R value that fell below 1 just days into lockdown (not specified in article how many days) The R value is never going to increase above it's ceiling rate it can't and the early rises in cases (which were obviously earlier than initially thought) are never going to continue, the rate of increase is always going to slow over time. To me it suggests Social Distancing is very effective and the earlier the better. Any inference that the virus without any measures would not spiral out of control in a quicker peak with more deaths is barking up the wrong tree IMO. |
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LUX
Are you the fella on horseracing who used to promote the idea that If more or less favourites happened to occur in any sample distribution over a few days you could with confidence predict that the next period would see this corrected? I have probably got your name wrong so apologies if it's not you. |
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lol
Monte Carlo fallacy!? Insulting! |
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At least we have finally put this to bed now.
Lockdown was an unnecessary and costly mistake. The people involved in advising it... Ferguson, Whitty and Vallace all appear to being eased off our screens. Trump did the same thing in America stopping his briefings with the 'scientists' some time ago. Will Boris ever be willing to stand up and admit he choose the wrong advisors on this? |
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The growing evidence to me appears to be suggesting that early actions absolutely key.Early social distancing and capability for volume testing with tracing could well be all that's needed.
Social Distancing has a massive effect if adhered to.Sweden was considered with it's more open approach to have had 20%+ infections but sampling evidence suggests this could be near 7%. London is estimated to have had around 17% infections with a lockdown. |
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LUX, I'm terrible with names
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It's interesting that the very highly densely populations in Asia are all over locking down, Social distancing effect on it's own not thought to be an option.
It looks like the UK epicentre was happily cracking on for weeks with the virus getting free reign. |
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Same as NYC
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Washing hands and keeping a one metre distance if with someone for over 15 mins the key to protecting the vulnerable.
Everyone else just carry on as normal. School closures etc quite absurd. |
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This is the current AW comp champ you're talking to Strides, not some blinkin ChitChat hoodlum
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Yes IT
It's getting to the point where it looks like you'd be better off taking your social distancing actions in a preemptive way BEFORE it becomes clear there is any sort of seeding in your country. Hindsight is great but for this virus this sort of policy even with the limited early testing we had could have had significant results to stop early spread. |
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'"The scientific backing was not good enough," Stoltenberg said of the decision to close down schools and kindergartens, a policy her agency had not recommend even at the time it was instituted in March. '
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