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Cost of lockdown already £1,500,000 per 'life saved'

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By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 27 May 20 16:00

May 27, 2020 -- 3:52PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


May 27, 2020 --  2:47PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:May 27, 2020 --  2:18PM, InsiderTrader wrote:May 27, 2020 --  1:05PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:How much should saving a life be worth iyo?depends how many more years the person is expected to live for.Ok, say you're Nostradamus and have just predicted next year's pandemic so you've got a nose for this. How much is a 70-year old's life worth?Similarly (cos we're already half way there) do we deny cancer treatment to the same 70 year old on the basis of cost?Do we deny spending £3m on a walking bridge if 1 person a year are killed on a road? Probably. If 2 people are killed a year probably not.Do we have a speed limit of 10mph because hundred die in car accidents each year? No because the cost to the economy is not worth it.These types of choices are made every day.


And that cost is based on risk of others also dying. When you believe the cost of doing nothing can be measured in the hundreds of thousands of corpses then you need to spend. By spending, you therefore reduce the number of future deaths. That one woman may have been the first of 20 if nothing had been done.

So is the cost per capita best judged at numbers dead, or numbers estimated to have died if zero spent?

By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 27 May 20 16:02

May 27, 2020 -- 3:54PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


May 27, 2020 --  2:53PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:Love the idea too of just putting everyone on benefits. Despite his fantastical idea that the govt could correctly means test the millions involved in the time allowed, he misses the whole point of the furlough scheme.It's not an act of socialist generosity. It's a necessary action  to stop people spreading the virus but also ensure they don't suddenly default on their bills and bring the whole country crashing to a halt.Most other countries have not been so generous.


Most other countries locked down quicker and harder and are getting back to normal in a shorter time. Most don't have a govt giving mixed messages and letting their own pals flout the rules brazenly.

There are many, many reasons we have handled this crisis appallingly. The furlough scheme is near the very bottom of the list.

By:
Coachbuster
When: 27 May 20 16:07
Love will save the day
By:
dave1357
When: 27 May 20 17:15
Has anyone looked into the cost of days off and holidays?  I reckon they cost 800,000,000,000 EVERY YEAR!
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 27 May 20 17:42
Own goal thread
By:
Coachbuster
When: 27 May 20 19:28
it's a load of nonsense ..if a car isn't made and someone wants a car  they will buy the car in August or whenever ,and if loads of people want cars then they can step up productions ...things are made well in advance  ...tourist industry has taken a hit granted  ...but then people coming here from abroad will come here again  at a later date   - simples
By:
AFTERTHOUGHT
When: 27 May 20 19:37
Cost of few bombs dropped on Syrai...............Seems the Government always finds the money for a Regime change attempt
By:
Crisp77
When: 27 May 20 19:41
Weve only lost a few months. If we work weekends and longer days we can make it back.
By:
1st time poster
When: 27 May 20 19:50
from the lefts new hero doris
no tax rises
no ni rises
no vat rise
triple lock pension stays

spend,dpend,spend,happy days
By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 27 May 20 19:56

May 27, 2020 -- 7:28PM, Coachbuster wrote:


it's a load of nonsense ..if a car isn't made and someone wants a car

By:
SontaranStratagem
When: 27 May 20 19:57
*bangs head against wall*

Sort that facking bug out will you Betfair
By:
Mexico
When: 27 May 20 20:20
IT

Your cost figure seems incorrect...

If UK "had just done social distancing " there would have been a significant cost anyway. No flights? No sport? Pubs? Restaurants? Shops? Transport? Hotels? Weddings? Holiday? Euro2020?
The U.K.would have still had a large bill although probably significantly less than a 3 month "lockdown "

Add to that the NHS would have been able to treat people if 5 times as many people needed help. And of course even with after timing is still guesswork as to how many would have died if we did very less social distancing.

If the UK public could behave then could of been less strict. Can you believe there are still the shiny gas mob claiming Covid19 isn't real or downplaying the deadly virus to a normal winter flu season. They have let themselves down & let their country down. Still they have a nice new shiny hat ideal headwear for destroying UK telecommunications hardware.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 27 May 20 21:09

May 27, 2020 -- 8:20PM, Mexico wrote:


ITYour cost figure seems incorrect...If UK "had just done social distancing " there would have been a significant cost anyway. No flights? No sport? Pubs? Restaurants? Shops? Transport? Hotels? Weddings? Holiday? Euro2020? The U.K.would have still had a large bill although probably significantly less than a 3 month "lockdown "Add to that the NHS would have been able to treat people if 5 times as many people needed help. And of course even with after timing is still guesswork as to how many would have died if we did very less social distancing. If the UK public could behave then could of been less strict. Can you believe there are still the shiny gas mob claiming Covid19 isn't real or downplaying the deadly virus to a normal winter flu season. They have let themselves down & let their country down. Still they have a nice new shiny hat ideal headwear for destroying UK telecommunications hardware.


Yes there would still have been a cost.

Sweden GDP will fall by 7% this year. UK will fall by 15%.

As for hospitals being 5 times more busy:
1. That would not have happened... Sweden had less people in hospital than us per million.
2. Most hospitals and NHS units have been empty the last few months and could have coped with many more patients.
3. Billions wasted on Nightingale hospitals that are not fit for purpose as most patients have issues other than Covid so need a proper hospital.

By:
macarony
When: 27 May 20 21:27
The only thing to come out of this how much power the state now has over the feeble minded
By:
Mexico
When: 27 May 20 21:42
IT

It is not clear if you have taken into account the cost I.e. Sweden's 7% when calculating your 300bn cost & if any of that cost is just delayed rather than lost forever.

You can't honestly be comparing Sweden with UK.
How does population density compare? London is a financial asset to UK in normal times. People travel from all over the planet to visit/do business.

With a killer virus around people crammed onto a tube & hundreds of flights arriving at Heathrow is hardly an asset.

Also I don't believe the UK public could behave. There would be birthday parties, family BBQ ,200 people at a funeral etc.

Basically your figures for cost & lives saved are both suspect.

I'm happy for country to open up if can keep number of Covid infections/deaths decreasing every week. We aren't going to get to zero cases , don't think it is unrealistic to expect number of deaths to be fewer than 50 a day. Unfortunately I have pretty much given up being able to go to a football match in 2020.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 27 May 20 22:09
It should be your choice Mexico.. not the states
By:
Mexico
When: 27 May 20 22:26
Not sure anybody should have the choice to recklessly put people's health & lives at risk.
In same way speeding, drunk driving, spreading HIV etc.

Even with the U.K. "Lockdown " been about 50k dead. Government hardly getting a gold star. Once they lost control of testing only weapon left was social distancing.
What did UK gain by not closing down 10 days earlier- was Liverpool V Madrid a good idea,
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 27 May 20 22:44

May 27, 2020 -- 10:26PM, Mexico wrote:


Not sure anybody should have the choice to recklessly put people's health & lives at risk.In same way speeding, drunk driving, spreading HIV etc.Even with the U.K. "Lockdown " been about 50k dead. Government hardly getting a gold star. Once they lost control of testing only weapon left was social distancing. What did UK gain by not closing down 10 days earlier- was Liverpool V Madrid a good idea,


The reason for the 50k dead you put down to the virus is because we have not protected the vulnerable groups well enough or early enough.

Lockdown makes no difference to that once the virus is widespread in the community as the New York study proved that showed 66%  of new patients were complying with lockdown and were not key workers etc.

We must not assume that because mistakes were made with the vulnerable that lockdown saved one life. They is no evidence it did. None whatsoever.

By:
Dotchinite
When: 27 May 20 22:44
Im not sure I understand what Mexico means by "behave". He may just do whatever he is told by the likes of Johnson and Hancock but some of us can think for ourselves.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 27 May 20 23:08
so can cummings
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 29 May 20 11:47
.
By:
lmfao
When: 29 May 20 22:31
Dow many under age of 40 have died?

Look it up - the answer is staggering......
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 29 May 20 22:57
How much would we have saved if we hadn't gone into lockdown when the rest of the world did?  A fraction of what we would have saved had the world carried on as normal.  It would have cost us a fortune anyway. 

Personally, I think the world should've carried on like Belarus, but the world didn't.  The public wouldn't have accepted it.  So we were screwed whatever.  A few hundred thousand to give someone with dementia an extra 6 months seems a bit excessive imho.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 29 May 20 23:04
hasn't cost the UK anything financially in the grand ponzi scheme of things  ,  lives have been lost though
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 29 May 20 23:13
The Lancet said there were 500,000 extra deaths from Cancer globally from the 2008 recession, so mebbe 5 million extra deaths globally from this just from cancer, and they won't be care homers with months left to live anyway.  That's just cancer. 

Jeff Bezos is worth $145,000,000,000 allegedly.  Mebbe we should all stop buying from Amazon?
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 29 May 20 23:16
If we forged Jeff's will so he gave everything to the UK Treasury, and bumped him off, wecould reduce that debt by 40% at a stroke.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 29 May 20 23:26
Is that extra cancer deaths because they chose austerity that made
finances worse?

The financial crisis didn't cause cancer
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 29 May 20 23:35
The financial crisis caused less investment in research, smaller budgets for the procurement of drugs, less investment for the training of doctors and nurses, smaller budgets for screening and diagnosis.  It's not rocket science.  And it's global so feck all to do with politics in the UK
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 29 May 20 23:36
It's great that people now recognise austerity kills

Let's hope we don't get another tory government killing more brits via austerity.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 29 May 20 23:38
"Nice will not approve drugs that cost more than its threshold of £20,000 to £30,000 per year of quality life, except for an end-of-life treatment – as this drug is – in which case the threshold rises to £50,000. But Nice believes nivolumab would cost between £66,000 to £75,000 per year of quality life."
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 29 May 20 23:43
Austerity is a choice

Choose life
By:
Coachbuster
When: 29 May 20 23:51
now what are we all to do ? when money's got a hold on you
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 29 May 20 23:52
Using NICE (Natiaonal Institute for Health and Care) criteria, 1 year of life is worth £25k of expenditure.  So at a cost of £300bn for 200,000 lives saved, that equates to 60 years per life.  From the data on COVID-19 that is nearer 10 years on average.  So I'd agree with the OP's sentiments.  6 times over budget, or rather 6 times as much life could be saved by not locking down globally.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 30 May 20 00:00
If they didn't pay furlough and saved billions there would
be lots more deaths of poor people for tories to celebrate
By:
zorrostrikes
When: 30 May 20 08:58
Accounts are evil. The Germans could not afford the cost of a bullet to kill undesirables.  So they gassed people.
America will spend trillions in wars and say they cannot afford healthcare. While we Europeans can afford it. The USA tries to erode our health systems. With drugs bring hiked up in price. Trying to monetize a life. I avoid doctors. One surgeon wanted to take out my gall bladder five yrs ago. It's fine. I had one bad day of pain. It led to me spending two days in hospital.  They pounce and see what they want to see sometimes. A cancer guy sees cancer. A heart guy sees irregular brats. I avoid them.
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 30 May 20 09:36

May 27, 2020 -- 2:13PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:


Had we locked down 2 weeks earlier costs would be reduced by earlier reopeningand far swifter recovery ( see Greece)We would have saved another 20,000 lives too. If we reopen too quickly now we will strangle the recovery beforeIt beginsTHIS IS ABOUT THE 30TH SILLY PROPAGANDA THREAD YOU HAVE STARTEDYOU HAVE ZERO EMPATHY FOR BRITISH PEOPLE


This is all true!

By:
potlis
When: 30 May 20 09:55
Why shouldn’t we question the cost of saving a life, isn’t that normal practice at the NHS.

Bristol boy forced to move to Holland after NHS refuses to pay for life-saving drug
The American drugs company want more money than the NHS is willing to pay

A boy from Bristol with a rare genetic disorder that is slowly killing him has had to move to the Netherlands this week so he can get access to a drug that could prolong his life.

Max Sewart and his dad Simon travelled on Tuesday to set up home in Rotterdam, where Max can be treated for a rare type of Batten Disease, leaving mum Ivana and younger brother Felix back in Britain.

The eight-year-old has become the victim of a stand-off between NHS drugs chiefs and the manufacturer of medication that can slow down the onset of Batten Disease, an extremely rare group of fatal, inherited disorders of the nervous system.

NHS bosses in England are refusing to pay the asking price for the drug called cerliponase alfa, marketed as Brinuera, even though it is available in 20 other countries including Wales.

It can reportedly slow down the progression of Batten disease and even stabilise it in cases.

It's an absurd situation. It's bad enough with the diagnosis, but to have to do this nonsense too,” said Mr Sewart.

“I feel so badly let down by the NHS - it's not what the service is about.

"It's about looking after your society. Their negotiators are not humane people.

The Sewarts’ MP, Jacob Rees Mogg, has backed their campaign, and raised their case - and those of other children - in the House of Commons several times.

Last week, he did so again, demanding answers from the NHS and health ministers.

“The terrible thing is that in the month that has passed since I first raised this matter in the House, Max’s condition will have slightly deteriorated, and in every month that goes on while we are debating this, not just Max but all the children with this condition will go downhill. That is what happens with this disease,” he told MPs last week.

“Although I accept, of course, that there is a need to look at costs, when we are talking about eight-year-old children, we are not talking about a cost for people who only have weeks or months to live, but about a child who could have years of a high quality of life ahead of him.

That must be where most of us as taxpayers think it is right to spend money and where we think that the moral case for spending money is extraordinarily strong,” he added.

At the weekend, Mr Rees Mogg was one of hundreds who attended the village fete in East Harptree, which was this year held as a fundraiser for Max.

READ MORE
Funding stops for prescriptions to Slimming World and Weight Watchers
Organised jointly between the school and the church, a record £5,000 was raised towards the public appeal, to help the family.

Max and Felix's headteacher at the village primary school, Jane Bailey, said she was proud of the response from the village.

The row over cost

An NHS England spokeswoman said: “The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) have not recommended this drug, since British taxpayers simply cannot offer a blank cheque to this particular American pharmaceutical company BioMarin, who have sadly so far shown a complete lack of willingness to price their products fairly, as independently assessed by NICE."
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 30 May 20 09:57
If we see a 2nd wave lockdown detractors will own that 2nd wave.

By:
1st time poster
When: 30 May 20 09:58
yeh but whats his views on Brexit
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 30 May 20 10:00
So suddenly we're not so arsed about the science any more?
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