Dominic Cummings press conference in-running

May 26, 2020 -- 8:26PM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:

So :-a) Lets establish whether he did or didn't adhere to the law and then ,b) Let the court decide what the punishment is.What is not fair about that ?

We've been over this above. You either get it or you don't. Repeating it wont help.

Cider
More accurately, Cummings is anti press and will get Boris to do things they won't like.

Give us a clue as to what these things will be.

Angoose couldn't answer, how about you, Charie. In your judgement who should decide whether Cummings should face a disciplinary, or indeed summary dismissal.

OK Charlie -  Who then decides whether he has adhered to the law ?

Surely that is crucial ??

He should be fcked off by doris.

So Boris accepted his explanation, as you know. That's the end of it.

mark sedwell decides

Fine. In that case the media should now allow the due process to take place.

JtG
In this instance I'm not really interested in the minutia of the law. I'm pretty sure that if you paid for a highly experienced prosecutor he would be found guilty. I'm not interested in that. Say one thing and do another is what I'm saying.

What we think is not relevant. We are not judge, jury and executioner.

Cider
Yes that may well be the end of it in the sense that he doesn't get booted. I hope he doesn't as he, and doris' decision is a God send to Labour.

Commissioning a national poll asking if someone should resign is actually incredible.

May 26, 2020 -- 8:38PM, Charlie wrote:

JtGIn this instance I'm not really interested in the minutia of the law. I'm pretty sure that if you paid for a highly experienced prosecutor he would be found guilty. I'm not interested in that. Say one thing and do another is what I'm saying.

What did he say and what did he do differently from what he said?

stay at home, protect the nhs, save lives

Fire Adam Boulton in that case, do us all a favour

This will all be long forgotten by the time of the next election.

Boris was convicted of the illegal suspension of Parliament and still won a landslide a few months later.

We are a fickle bunch.

My stance is he was wrong, culpable, stupid, lying, arrogant, unrepentant, irrational, and I could go on. I'll sum up: a tw@t.

Adam Boulton tried claim after Cummings was insulted by a number of disgraceful 'press' people that Cummings broke the rules.

He clearly broke no rules let alone any laws.

May 26, 2020 -- 8:45PM, Charlie wrote:

My stance is he was wrong, culpable, stupid, lying, arrogant, unrepentant, irrational, and I could go on. I'll sum up: a tw@t.

A what was your view of him before Covid when he helped get Britain back its independence through Brexit and got Boris into power?

I'd never heard of the tw@t before. But if he got doris into power then he's a cnt.

The Govt should get Arsene Wenger or Sven Goran Ericsson to answer questions for them. They would sound more convincing, skirt around the issues just as well and wind up journalists even more. And they would make about as much sense.

independence? we are becoming a police state

Delete 'becoming'.

You won't openly agree of course , but whatever your opinion of the guy , you would rather have him in your corner than against you.

I hope not. We need lockdown to be over and house arrest to end. I agree with you there.

May 26, 2020 -- 8:51PM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:

You won't openly agree of course , but whatever your opinion of the guy , you would rather have him in your corner than against you.

What do base that on?

latest news
cummings  just been stopped on way home from downing st tonight

cop asked him" have you been drinking"

cummings admitted " yes
but i was just checking if i was too pissed to drive "

May 26, 2020 -- 8:45PM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:

This will all be long forgotten by the time of the next election.Boris was convicted of the illegal suspension of Parliament and still won a landslide a few months later.We are a fickle bunch.

With half the country literally idle at home, it's been very difficult for the government to change the news cycle. Especially with this comparative lull in covid 19 news until phase 2 next week.

Maybe: we've totally screwed up on Covid and killed a few thousand people but nobody will notice?

They've been more bothered about Dom for the last four days. Funny that.

And meanwhile the government do?

May 26, 2020 -- 8:54PM, Cider wrote:

They've been more bothered about Dom for the last four days. Funny that.

It is weird that PPE, Carehomes and the fact we are all in lockdown for no reason has been forgotton because all the media care about is what DC did.

Which few thousand are those ?  How many were we allowed to kill in your expert opinion ?

May 26, 2020 -- 8:54PM, Cider wrote:

They've been more bothered about Dom for the last four days. Funny that.

No questions on track and trace. My view is if it anything to do with big government or the NHS it will be hopeless.

I'm fairly sure the Government will be quite happy that people aren't talking about PPE and care homes.

May 26, 2020 -- 8:56PM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:

Which few thousand are those ?

May 26, 2020 -- 8:56PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

May 26, 2020 --  7:54PM, Cider wrote:They've been more bothered about Dom for the last four days. Funny that.No questions on track and trace. My view is if it anything to do with big government or the NHS it will be hopeless.

Demonstrates that their preoccupation is with making things as difficult and uncomfortable as possible for the government, and appealing to their narrow band of cheerleaders.

Can't be bothered posting again but general gist was wrong about everything: too late on lockdown, too late on PPE, too late on allowing people into country, etc.

May 26, 2020 -- 9:02PM, Charlie wrote:

Can't be bothered posting again but general gist was wrong about everything: too late on lockdown, too late on PPE, too late on allowing people into country, etc.

All those points are interesting but the key thing is FAILING to implement a plan to protect the old/vulnerable that worked.

Had they done that 96% of deaths could have been avoided regardless of your other points.

stay elite

Plenty time to come back to the data in the days ahead.



53,853 excess deaths in weeks 11 to 20, 41,105 attributed to COVID-19.
Of those, 22,233 in care homes, 11,636 attributed to COVID-19.

How many of those excess deaths were under 20 year olds Angoose?

Do over 20's not count ?

Yes but the age and pre-existing conditions on them are vital if you are doing any detailed analysis of what went wrong.

if one person breaks the rules, we all suffer.

stay home protect the nhs save lives

The daily briefing is a waste of time because there is nothing much one does not know using the experiences and successful measures undertaken by competent government overseas like Germany, New Zealand, Australia, S Korea and Japan - the UK government are merely playing catch-up with the virus.

Also, it's mainly being used to give themselves a pat on the back, and to remind us of the mantra...save the NHS blah, blah, blah whilst one of their own "instinctively" twisting the lockdown rules to suit.

the graphs are certainly more relevant than where DC drove a couple of months ago

I reckon he'll probably manage to cling on, the damage has been done. What would be the point of getting rid of him now? Far more people will flout the lockdown now whether he goes or not. And when "tracing officers" or whatever they are called ask people to download the "tracing app", they will understandably be told where to go.

May 26, 2020 -- 9:10PM, jollyswagman wrote:

if one person breaks the rules, we all suffer.stay home protect the nhs save lives

Why is that the case Jolly?

Talk us through how vulnerable people isolating at home or people in care homes suffer if young fit people are allowed out?

Surely the key is putting resources into properly protecting the at risk people. E.g. not have untested carers travelling by bus from carehome to carehome and never being tested. Also having NHS people in PPE allowed access to carehomes might have helped as well.

The response was focused on Protecting THE FACE of the NHS not on saving lives.

May 26, 2020 -- 9:13PM, Des Pond wrote:

I reckon he'll probably manage to cling on, the damage has been done. What would be the point of getting rid of him now? Far more people will flout the lockdown now whether he goes or not. And when "tracing officers" or whatever they are called ask people to download the "tracing app", they will understandably be told where to go.

the toughest thing is getting people to leave their house now, not staying home

that was the government message trader, take it up with the pm.

you supported what the government did, dont expect me to justify their actions, look in the mirror.

you said other countries should go for a boris style lock down, i dont recall you saying apart from the bit where he expects the young to follow the same course of action

It's quite a strange thing in this country, a lot of people seem concerned these days with what other people are doing, that doesn't impact on them, rather than what is under their control.

May 26, 2020 -- 9:18PM, jollyswagman wrote:

you said other countries should go for a boris style lock down, i dont recall you saying apart from the bit where he expects the young to follow the same course of action

Jolly, how long after the initial 3 week lockdown started did I say enough was enough as more evidence appeared?

It has now been going for several months.

Initially before we worked out Ferguson's model and code was flawed most of us were taken in to believing we had to temporarly lockdown.

As soon a the flaws appeared it was clearly time to change policy.

We are now looking at 15% decline in GDP. If people think this will not all have to paid for they are clueless.

Angoose - I agree EXCESS deaths is the primary key figure.

At the end of all this , we need to compare our figures to other countries, (and then adjust for numerous  demographic factors no doubt).

We can then judge our performance from the health perspective.

Will we even get access to accurate figures from other countries ?

But what about our performance from an economic perspective ?  How do we measure that ?  How much does that matter ?

The whole thing is a delicate balancing act between saving peoples lives (primarily the old and vulnerable)  and damaging the economy (which also adversely affects many lives both short term and long into the future - we will be paying for this for generations )

Health or money ? - I'm glad I wasn't making the calls.

i said a while ago that covid patients should not be treated in hospitals as they become reservoirs of infection.

read the nhs policy documents from march and april, the first one effectively required hospitals to turf out 15,000 patients to make way for the expected covid rush and the second one made the most amazing claim that patients with covid, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, can be safely cared for in a care home, on the basis of guidance set out in the document.

someone who thinks the cummings jaunt to barnard castle is justified really shouldnt be calling anyone else cluelsss.

Does anyone need a graph to tell us there is more vehicular activity of the road? It bleeding obvious..just take a walk down the road or to the shops. It's so self-evident.

But, can the health experts tell us for sure if youngsters can be infected? If so, to what degree with certainty? Of course not. They are learning and making it up as they go along very similar to economists during an economic downturn.

trader, btw i found a second paper suggesting we dont need many to have it for it to be on its way, not as low as the 10-20% one but pretty low. i thought i had bookmarked it but am extremely annoyed as i cant now find it. it is also a preprint so not peer reviewed but a scientist who so far seems serious says it looked good. lets hope so.

why did the WHO sit on the information until China had eradicated the disease from their own country and exported it across the world. what are we going to do about it.

Angoose - On your charts , which week is lockdown week ?

UK lockdown kicked in on March 23, Week 13 ended on 27 March.

by all accounts northern Italy has a stronger health service than we do. and had people passing away in corridors with nowhere to store the coffins. It's not surprising that they thought they had to mitigate against that being replicated here.

Thanks - looks like lockdown has caused the excess deaths then !

Don't encourage IT

Just so I understand correctly  - There have been 53,853 excess deaths in weeks 11-20 (over what ? - a 5 year average?) Is that right ?

Of which 41,105 have a COVID link of some sort ? 

So, the other excess deaths are not directly related to COVID at this time , but could well be indirectly linked in some way ?

Is that correct so far ?

Moving on ..

Included within the excess deaths of 53,853 are 22,233 excess deaths in care homes and of those 22,233 , 11,636 have direct COVID links therefore  leaving 10,957 excess deaths in care homes not at this stage directly linked to COVID.

Is that correct ?

Where I'm struggling is the figure of 41,105  - This seems far higher than the official numbers  (and the official numbers will include the deaths before week 11 )

Can you help me there ?

The lower figure is a confirmed test

You can pull the data file from here

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

There is a separate file that provides the breakdown of excess deaths by setting.

Taking your figures at face value there are a total of 53,853 excess deaths so far.

41,105 are COVID linked  leaving 12,748 as "not yet linked" ,  of which 10,957 are in care homes.

Excess deaths is the deaths in current year measured against the average of the last five years as you have stated.

not all bad news doris might extend furlough to keep the natives quiet,couple of 100 tousand unemployed aint going to win doris any friends

There are 49,138 excess deaths in England and Wales for the year to 15 May, 53,846 for the weeks 11 to 18.

May 26, 2020 -- 10:04PM, 1st time poster wrote:

not all bad news doris might extend furlough to keep the natives quiet,couple of 100 tousand unemployed aint going to win doris any friends

Interesting and I just read a report that the scheme will be closed for any folks who aint already on it.

In 2018, there was around 542K deaths in the UK. So it's circa 10% over a regular year currently, but it's anticipated many of those deaths would have occurred within the year anyway (most were elderly and/or had comorbidity). There could also be excess deaths down the line due to delayed treatment/diagnosis and other lockdown related reasons. We won't know the true figure for a good while yet.

Thanks for the information.

Appreciated.

542K in England and Wales that should read.

616k for the UK in 2018

it's anticipated many of those deaths would have occurred within the year anyway

by who?

Bloody hell Cider, The Telegraph has gone full lefty, they don’t reflect your opinion

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1265386964502667264?s=21

read the comments on the post and tell me it reflects opinion

May 26, 2020 -- 10:19PM, jollyswagman wrote:

it's anticipated many of those deaths would have occurred within the year anywayby who?

me

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 38% (+5)

via @YouGov

Cutting through

Just the 4 and half years to wait

so you made it up cider and tried to make it sound plausible by saying it's anticipated. thanks for confirming you are a troll and a bullsh1t artist, i had realised that some time ago anyway.

meanwhile last week one of the country's top statisticians drastically revised down his previous estimates and there are studies suggesting the average years of life lost was over a decade, i cant be bothered to find the thread but i put the links up at the time.

Next election is due in May 2024 but there will be one before that.

the tories may go through two leaders before the next election, it all depends how bad the recession is.

Tomorrow's front pages still dominated by Cummings.

Tories really doing an excellent job in drawing a line under this. Brewery. Piss up etc.

And if Cummings goes before the end of the year, I fear Boris won't make 2022 as PM

May 26, 2020 -- 10:42PM, jollyswagman wrote:

so you made it up cider and tried to make it sound plausible by saying it's anticipated. thanks for confirming you are a troll and a bullsh1t artist, i had realised that some time ago anyway. meanwhile last week one of the country's top statisticians drastically revised down his previous estimates and there are studies suggesting the average years of life lost was over a decade, i cant be bothered to find the thread but i put the links up at the time.

Get over yourself. I watched a presentation about two months ago now, and it's plausible. I don't remember who carried out the presentation. The average length of stay in a care home is around two years anyway, with or without comorbidity.

well i watched a tv interview with one of the country's top statisticians about a week ago and have seen published papers. i am not a statistician, you are yet but with no factual basis you have presented a view not based on fact which you tried to make sound probable when it was just your view . you are the one who needs to get over yourself.

as i said, you have been trolling the forum.

i cant remember the exact number but i think it was 5-15% would die in the next year and as i said the average years of life left in one study was estimated as over a decade. i am surprised a professional statistician has not looked at any papers on the subject, relying instead on a presentation from about two months ago.

I wrote it was anticipated, I didn't state it was a fact. I don't know about you but I'm still working, I'm not trawling through hours and hours of content as I will never be more expert than the so called experts in this field. A lot of it is part opinion, part forecast part fact. However, I'm ok at interpreting data if I do say so myself. For example I was the first person I saw or read anywhere writing that the death figures were being distorted by the weekend, including the 'experts' on various news broadcasts at the beginning of the crisis.

another tory mp
Lockdown police break up gathering at North Wales Tory MP’s house
Delyn MP Rob Roberts was not at the property at the time, a spokesman saidPolice broke up a gathering at the house of a North Wales MP over the bank holiday weekend.

It is understood that people from another household were at Delyn MP Rob Roberts' home in Mold on Bank Holiday Monday - in an apparent breach of lockdown regulations.

Two people were said to be visiting the property and were asked to leave by officers.

It is reported by the Mirror that there were 40th birthday balloons and banners outside the house to mark Mr Roberts' wife Alexandra's birthday.Superintendent Mark Pierce of North Wales Police said: “In response to two reports of a possible breach of Covid 19 regulations we visited an address at Ty’n y Coed, Mold, yesterday (Monday, May 25).

"When we called at the property two people visiting the house left following advice and no further action was taken.”

Lockdown rules in Wales state that you must only travel if your journey is essential and visiting people in other households is not yet allowed.

A spokesman for Mr Roberts said that the politician was not at the house.

He said: "Rob Roberts was not present at the time. His family have been reminded of the guidelines set out by the government."

It is understood that Mr Roberts spent the bank holiday weekend in London and returned to North Wales on Monday afternoon.


It comes after he defended the Prime Minister's chief adviser Dominic Cummings, who has come under fire for travelling 260 miles from London to Durham.

Mr Roberts had initially demanded a full investigation, writing on Facebook: "Of course it is right that we cannot have one rule for one and another for the rest ... If Mr Cummings has acted inappropriately according to an investigation, then he should go.

"If an investigation concludes that he hasn’t, then he shouldn’t
"The media doesn’t get to call the shots on who is hired and fired."

But later he added: "Having watched the statement from Mr Cummings, I believe that he seemed to be entirely acting in the best interests of his child as a responsible husband and father .. It is now time for us all to move on from this issue."

Tory MP Mr Roberts was elected as MP for Delyn in the 2019 General Election - unseating Labour MP David Hanson who has represented the constituency since 1992.

Calling Cider;
Don`t know if you`ve seen it, but there`s a Gormley poker game being arranged, if you`re interested?

the most relevant information I heard yesterday was that all these brexiteers,brexiteer mp,s cheering,lauding this tory government thinking cummings has some sort of masterplan ,it doesn't excist the masterplan is literally

nanny mugs cheap kids shoe,s


lizz truzz,s ceramic teapots

2 stone of COD

new young aids hired after the election were astounded that there was no all singing and dancing cybey,techno plan,it doesn't excist its a wing and prayer

Just had a chuckle thinking about how he promoted the idea that he foretold the pandemic last year.

Someone was on here a couple of days ago saying maybe Cummings is bright and important, essentially so important that it trumps any amorality.

My answer was that his greatest gift has been in convinving the public that he's oh so smart, as well as getting them to rail at "elites" while he swans off to his parents estate or in-laws castle. To be fair, it's quite a trick to get so many people to buy into that without questioning if this guy is one of us or one of them.


But hey, within hours of that, you get this. Mr Smartarse in the middle of the worst spell of the pandemic was taking time out to re-visit an old blog and insert a couple of paragraphs that would make him look clever. But in his haste, he isn't clever enough to realise how transparent that actually is nowadays and actually draws a light to it in his thrashing defence in the garden and forces his own government to come out and admit he lied.


Beautiful stuff.

to be fair why wouldn't you, when 200 elected mp,s all over the age of 5 and dozens of right wing pundits think taking a 4 yr old on a 6o mile road trip to test your eyes is asensible cause of action,although its a criminal offence ,probably a domestic abuse offence and an insult to the intelligence of anyone over 5 yrs old,
imagine what he thinks is fair game behind the closed doors of downing street ,after getting away with that on live tv in front of the world,we,re a laughing stock through out the world,world social media in meltdown laughing at the uk