LOCKDOWN POINTLESS? most new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home

It doesn't fit in to well with official goverment advice that masks are no good if you are alluding that the virus is airborne.

If it is bad in the house it must be terrible altogether outside?

The lockdown needs to be longer so?

The conclusion if social distancing measures are in place and being observed in public and the home curfew is observed as stated is that lockdown is pointless in homes and social distancing does little either when people leave their homes?

My conclusion is that unless you do full and total lockdown it is pointless.

If you go out to a crowded supermarket (because other shops and restaurants are shut) once a day you can pick it up anyway if your body is susceptible to the virus.

What if you go out to a non-crowded supermarket ?

A lot of European countries have single figure new cases these days,the lockdown has worked for them,they can control this easily by track and trace now with the only danger who is coming and going into the country.

seems to be an outbreak in a Bristol hospital, closed to all other patients as of now,bank holiday on southwest beaches wont be helping

When you have 2k-3k new cases a day something is badly wrong.

Never understood how self isolating yourself for 12 weeks was going to help you --- first day out you could catch the flu from anyone who had it who had not isolated

I don't understand how it spreads like wildfire from a handful of cases , at the start,but with up to 10,000 a day it doesn't,same virus

It's not the sort of thing where you have a control country in the data to see how high the peak would have gone with no measures in place at all like the flu (obviously vaccinations in place for seasonal flu that have varying degrees of success year to year.

ie a country where it got to the point of thousands of new cases a day doing nothing in response.

Infections have to slow down 1TP after the early exponential rises it's a case of how quickly the burn up the most viable targets and how many people will get infected as it runs it's course.

Weston Super Mare has seen covid admissions spike and have had to shut their doors to other conditions again. How many more in coming weeks?

lapsy pa
25 May 20 09:43
Joined: 29 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 3,955 | Blogger: lapsy pa's blog
A lot of European countries have single figure new cases these days,the lockdown has worked for them,they can control this easily by track and trace now with the only danger who is coming and going into the country.

^

What makes you think that is anything to do with blanket lockdowns?

It's a real shame for me that there aren't more discussions for the public regarding these studies and observations.

The press briefing for me is just a ZZZZZZZZZZZz event and has been for ages.

I would rather have a broadcast of an hour each day with various conflicting science answering questions not just the govt bods!

^ Lockdowns and acting early IT, single figures,Slovenia 0 new cases,Greece 2,Croatia 1, Hungary 28,Finland 11,Norway 6,Switzerland 11.Austria 17.

You are still pushing lifting lockdown but even today and for last week an average of 3k new cases a day? isn't there just too many catching this?

But can you PROVE that turning off the tap stopped the water flowing out of it

2500/3000 positive test,threy reckon between 8 and 10,000 a day

study today saying only between 3 to 7% have had virus in uk,plenty left to get it

I can't Angoose,it is what is happening though,i do follow the Irish goverment policy a bit and they are hellbent on getting new cases down,i'll go with that.

In March 1stTP when cases were low,there was estimates of up to 50k infected in London,that was kept quiet but now looks to be correct. The multiply effect then i think was about 10 less now obviously but agree still a multiple of cases found and that 2-3k nd 8-10k looks right to me too.

And because we don't have a parallel universe where we can replicate the UK or Ireland without lockdown measures, IT will continue to claim that there is no proof that lockdown measures have slowed down the rate of infection in these countries.

It is up to the lockdown fanatics to prove it is a policy worth destroying our economy and killing many cancer, heart disease and mental health patients for now and in the future.

Lockdown of young health people changed the status quo of our society based on no scientific evidence.

IT, you never did give your mark out of ten for how Johnson has handled this crisis.

Lockdown is over now and theres no going back. We will just have to wait and see what happens.

Much more of the country could open up if the British public cold behave.

The pubs near me tend to have large beer gardens, could have table service for food & drink. But if news got out that the pubs were open people would travel from miles , then moan that it is too crowded to be safe.

How dangerous would it be to open swimming pools (lap swimming only) .


Yet at the same time half of parents think government wrong to open a limited school system next week.

Sweden is still nowhere near 'herd immunity,' even though it didn't go into lockdown

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Was this posted anywhere, apologies if so.

There are so many aspects to it.

Overall 2 or 3.

The problem is in the inflexibility of our health system and a lack of willingness to get the private sector into things like testing quickly like places like Germany. State run giant organisations like the NHS are not fit for purpose. Supermarkets sorted out food supplies in days in the private sector. Public sector public health England still has not sorted out testing. They have produced a rubbish APP for contact tracing.

The code the government relied on for the Ferguson numbers would have not passed private sector tests. It is all very amateurish.

The government got themselves in a pickle by prioritizing 'PROTECTING THE FACE OF THE NHS' over saving lives.

So much was the fear of a media frenzy of one or two hospitals having patients filmed in corridors that NHS England cleared hospitals and cancelled all diagnostics and most cancer and heart treatments. No one see this stuff behind closed doors. People will just slowly die over the next few years.

The reality is 100 people might have died due to lack of beds and yet many thousands will die from lack treatment for other things due to the ideological nature of the NHS not being seen to be over run.

I understand the logic in a social media based society with 24/7 media but it does not make it right.

I understand why Boris panic on the sensible policy and went for saving the face of the NHS rather than saving lives and the economy (and more lives).

Most people agree with his policies although complain of lack of PPE, testing and problems in carehomes which is a direct result of trying to protect the face of the NHS at all costs.

This crisis was about choosing how to use the resources available. Boris choose style over substance to avoid one or two terrible days of bad press photos.

I broadly agree IT but they were quite rightly desperate to avoid the scenes in Italy and Spain of seriously ill people being turned away by intensive care hospitals. They did manage to "flatten" the curve which was the right decision during March and April.

Not room to swing a kitten on our seafront today, social distancing is out the window, if this is being repeated elsewhere and doesn’t result in the predicted “second wave” then people are entitled to ask wtf was the point of lockdown.

Been to an M&S food store in Bridgwater and to the Steart marshes wildlife reserve this morning between 10.00 and 12.30. Very few people about either on the roads, the shops or the coastal reserve. Very easy to keep 5 metres from anyone else.

Shock horror people still getting ill with a "virus" despite not venturing out

The shock of it... not!!!

Local Council now tweeting that all car parks full, asking public to “please stay away”

No deaths in Ireland today cases and deaths in UK down too,great news albeit wary of post weekend figures.

Just maybe the lockdowns are working and the herd immunity concept is a killing machine?

Cummings herd immunity killed 50,000

Lockdown saved 450,000

Hmmm

Odd thread from a busted flush, again

So was Cummings the man behind lockdown or someone who went for herd immunity?

We don't know.

That alledged quote?  hmmmm.

Ya want to give up on that herd immunity nonsense IT, save lives,get cases down,work from there.

Herd immunity starts to have an effect after 10-20% of the population has had it.

That is why the R rate drops so quickly in any new place gets cases.

The R rate goes down as well if it hasn't a host to go to.
What about if no new cases for a while, new cases come in,easy to track and isolate?
Won't that knock out a large amount of death?

May 25, 2020 -- 7:04PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

Herd immunity starts to have an effect after 10-20% of the population has had it.That is why the R rate drops so quickly in any new place gets cases.

Is that a proven fact or a hypothesis in one particular published paper ?

It is a hypothesis supported by the case figures we see.

Unlike lockdown  which is an almost religious belief supported by nothing I can see in the figures.

All the scientists that still think 60% is a realistic figure for this variable don't see this in the data?

The 60% requirement was based on the assumption that everyone was equally likely to be infected.

The guys who did the 10-20% paper theorized that, based on previous viruses, this assumption was likely to be very mistaken.

Why have Australia/New Zealand and other countries not had an issue?

Why do people like to compare Sweden with the UK and not the other Scandinavian countries?

There must be a number of drivers going on from country to country, I've seen nothing to suggest anything is black and white.

Tobermory are you suggesting that scientists now that are still talking higher figures for herd immunity aren't aware of that?

Why do people say you can only compare Sweden with Scandinavia but UK/New Zealand is a fair comparison

I think scientists give a worst case scenario due to the precautionary principle, and also the human nature factor of not wanting to admit they may have got it wrong.

I've always suggested that comparing countries unless you can properly calibrate them is completely pointless.

In my Economics days you just wouldn't do it unless you had tried and trusted assumptions that had been proven.

I've got very little confidence when the variables and estimates are completely all over the place

A place is said to have 50% infected already or 20-25% reaching herd immunity then weeks later it's thought to be nearer 5-7%, some countries locked down some more open.


How would you go about with Sweden more open vs Denmark who had a lockdown but appear to have emerged well. ?

cummings was behind herd immunity, killing 50,000 people

lockdown was too late.



greeks are starting their holidays today

The only thing I am probably the most confident about is that a function of how well a country fares with Covid is...

The early seeding and the early action taken for initial phase and then what's in place thereafter when trying to start to get back to normal.

I was expecting Sweden at least Stockholm to have 20-25% infected by now going on what Tegnell was saying weeks back but a recent sample is suggesting perhaps nearer 7%.

This is the trouble we have got.We are trying to surmise on key variables where the science and studies are all over the place.What looks great one day is thrown into doubt the next.

The 'lockdown was too late' argument is that, on March 9th, Italy had a big outbreak and went in into lockdown. We had a small outbreak and so if we lockdown same day as them we would remain far behind them in figures.

It made sense in March but now we know that UK areas which locked down on the same day - March 23rd - with wildly varying case numbers, ended up with the same outcome . So if it did not work within the UK why would it had worked between Italy/UK ?

May 25, 2020 -- 7:19PM, Angoose wrote:

May 25, 2020 --  6:04PM, InsiderTrader wrote:Herd immunity starts to have an effect after 10-20% of the population has had it.That is why the R rate drops so quickly in any new place gets cases.Is that a proven fact or a hypothesis in one particular published paper ?

Its a proven fact that the rate of growth of the virus in terms of deaths starts off exponential (R0 3-4) and then decreases and then goes negative well before 60% of the population has been infected everywhere the virus has hit.

Ask yourself why this is the case? To me the simple answer is it runs out of people to infect that are highly susceptible to being infected and those who have been infected act as a blocker. Same thing happened in Sweden, in Belarus, in UK, in Italy, in New York etc etc.

No where has exponential growth continued beyond the very early stages. If R0 of the disease is 3-4 it seems to very quickly fall to around 1-1.2 and then goes sub 1.0 regardless of policy interventions.

Cummings denies being 'behind herd immunity'.

But herd immunity seems to work anyway whether we like it or not.

Some countries have done the same thing and had massively different outcomes regardless of how many infected.

Cases have tailed off for many far before any herd immunity has kicked in if the estimates of infection are correct.

Interesting that AB study suggests 7.5% of Stockholm have had the disease (no lockdown) and 18% of London have had it (with lockdown) and 21% of New York City have had it (with lockdown).

Surely we would expect the numbers to be the other way round. How is Stockholm get the lowest levels of infect with the lowest level of government intervention?

Maybe locking people down, closing shops and pubs etc means actually makes people more likely to catch it?

Why did Denmarks early in and out of lockdown appear to work so well?

There was a quote from their leader "we couldn't wait for the science it was too risky" so we acted early.

I fully agree with that IT it makes no sense if those estimates are anywhere close to their true values.

May 25, 2020 -- 8:21PM, stridingedge wrote:

Why did Denmarks early in and out of lockdown appear to work so well?There was a quote from their leader "we couldn't wait for the science it was too risky" so we acted early.

Denmark has 4-5million people. Compared to neighbours like Belgium and Netherlands they have done well so far.

But it also means the people in Denmark most likely to catch it have not yet been exposed.

Maybe Denmark had no cases back in December and did not slowly build up cases before hand washing and sensible social distancing kicked in.

I suspect that is the case in Belarus.

Yes the early action is all important. I can't see how it isn't with relation to the totally different outcomes we have seen from country to country.

Some countries the disease just never got going of course science would dictate there is a much greater chance of subsequent problems.

We haven't really seen it though as yet, Perhaps this is more seasonal than expected?

Too early to tell.

Russia seems to be the one that still doesn't look right at all as they have the vast case numbers but not the expected deaths.

I agree Striding with what you said earlier about the very poor level of analysis we get in the UK.

Media is only interested in 'gotcha!' type crap.

The government has introduced the lockdown, at ruinous cost, so ministers have to defend it, while the media's main angle of attack is the lockdown was not strict enough/not soon enough. So the evidence that the lockdown was futile lies in plain sight while being ignored.

There's no way Tobes I'm going to begin to try and say this isn't a major head fcuk for us all with regards the economy it is a truly awful state of affairs.

I can full see why many think it wasn't a trade off that was worth it.

And i'm not saying I'm right in my thoughts of the disease, Yourself and IT may well have backed the right horse here. It's just been very difficult week to week with the information to really say it's nailed regards what the most important factor(s) have actually been.

You hear a few references to 'falling case numbers in London', which is then presented as 'the lockdown working', if it is analyzed at all.

But if the lockdown caused that surely London should be the last place to come under control ?

I mean Denmark was just mentioned as a place where the virus has been defeated as their case numbers now are so low. In the last week Denmark has double the infection rate of London, despite a much smaller population.

May 25, 2020 -- 8:35PM, stridingedge wrote:

There's no way Tobes I'm going to begin to try and say this isn't a major head fcuk for us all with regards the economy it is a truly awful state of affairs.I can full see why many think it wasn't a trade off that was worth it.And i'm not saying I'm right in my thoughts of the disease, Yourself and IT may well have backed the right horse here. It's just been very difficult week to week with the information to really say it's nailed regards what the most important factor(s) have actually been.

the problem is there is so much noise around the signal

turn the fkin mainstream media on the TVs & smartphones off is the 1st step
then look at the facts
then make your own assessment based on the facts

personally I don't think its been too difficult throughout this whole debacle to work out that lockdown was (a) not necessary, for reasons I've stated previously, (b) that it would be an absolute fkin disaster for the economy and have consequences down the line for long term health, and (c) that there are ulterior motives being played out

and so far I've been proved 100% right

Of course at some point, on a certain date, a lockdown - with borders fully closed - could have kept the virus out. And a lockdown on a certain later date could have isolated and stopped spread.

But we have to be realistic about when those dates were. I think the virus was here in December and was seeded far and wide by early February. Same for Italy/Spain/France/Belgium/Germany, because those are the countries with vastly more international travel than Belarus/Slovenia/Czech...... Locking down in early March would already have been too late in that sense, we were already going to get the case numbers we were going to get.

tobermory • May 25, 2020 8:35 PM BST
You hear a few references to 'falling case numbers in London', which is then presented as 'the lockdown working', if it is analyzed at all.

they did the same with china...their figures, their narrative

you only have to look at the likes of sweden & belarus to see the "lockdown works" narrative is complete and utter fkin bollox

Wonders whether right or wrong to do so.

Do you think Sweden would probably have a much lower death rate akin to it's neighbours if it had locked down in the same way early?

Lockdowns only make sense if you either have a vaccine nearly ready or theres a reason to think the virus wont hang round.
If this virus is going to continue to circulate and theres no working vaccine whats the point because it will come back as soon as you lift the lockdown and you cant have lockdown after lockdown.

SE I have only looked at the UK in significant detail but the only evidence I see here is that lockdown has caused excess mortality, not prevented it

Most Swedish deaths are in care homes. A Swedish scientist said that they have big care homes with scores of residents while Norway typically has only 5 or 6 people per home.

A lot of people still think the disease is similar to flu too in terms of potency. Of course we all know who the vulnerable groups are and they represent a huge chunk of the deaths.

If these estimates of infections are anywhere near right though the IFR has to be a lot higher than for flu.

There's been a lot of argument on several different things throughout.


is it the same as flu
lockdown vs social distancing, of course no one said do nowt
is it worth ruining the next however many years for the deaths

Yes of course I should have mentioned the in direct deaths above too as of course another important factor.

Well you get the gold star wonders I'm still struggling to make sense of plenty of it.

May 25, 2020 -- 8:56PM, stridingedge wrote:

A lot of people still think the disease is similar to flu too in terms of potency. Of course we all know who the vulnerable groups are and they represent a huge chunk of the deaths.If these estimates of infections are anywhere near right though the IFR has to be a lot higher than for flu.There's been a lot of argument on several different things throughout.is it the same as flulockdown vs social distancing, of course no one said do nowtis it worth ruining the next however many years for the deaths

doesn't really matter how it relates to flu imo

even if you believe the official figures and narrative, CV19 deaths worldwide relative to other big killers of life represent small fry

(after abortion) hunger, cancer, pneumonia etc etc are FAR bigger killers even if you take their figures at face value, which I do not

besides I consider flu a seasonal detox based on bodily intake & terrain ie living surroundings

if you have the flu its your body doing what it is naturally meant to do ie protect you by detoxing
the toxins remaining in your body would do far more harm than a bout of flu
allopathic medical ideas & practice has a lot to answer for imo

Just hope we deal with it from here now and countries that haven't been affected much stay that way.

This is a dress rehearsal for when something much more severe eventually comes our way.

It's hard if you don't believe the figures anyhow but would you have a number of deaths that was ever unacceptable ?

I'm surprised stridingedge agrees with you wonder especially the bit in 8:47PM post
([i]c) that there are ulterior motives being played out [/i]

He wasn't too keen on anything against the official narrative 3 days ago,you live and learn

The scary thing is the way we have panicked over this you can be sure that if ever we had a dangerous virus like ebola spreading it would lead to a total collapse of society. I mean even with covid there are plenty who are going to be too scared to go out for several years. Theres a few on here although they probably didnt go out before the pandemic.

I don't take the covid figures at face value SE...certainly in the UK there has been a lot of re-classification of cause of death, as evidenced by the 'apparent' drop on deaths attributable to cancer etc

in terms of excess mortality I regard the current number of deaths (UK) as unacceptable!!

This is a dress rehearsal for when something much more severe eventually comes our way.
sadly I concur

LOl Denzil

Not creaming ones self over every whacko activist on Youtube  who believes inb a world withh no authority whatsoever doesn't mean I swallow the official narrative.

With regards the lockdown there are plenty of countries who to this point locked down and haven't seen the deaths nearly as bad.

If we were sat in Germany's place now it would surely be a different conversation.

Not creaming ones self over every whacko activist on Youtube  who believes inb a world withh no authority whatsoever

who on here does or is doing that iyo SE?

JWH

I've noticed if I comment on any of his clips I get an adverse reaction (eventually) from Denzil. Thought I may have got away with the last one.

ok

May 25, 2020 -- 9:27PM, stridingedge wrote:

JWHI've noticed if I comment on any of his clips I get an adverse reaction (eventually) from Denzil. Thought I may have got away with the last one.

Who are you trying to convince? How much abuse did you post the other day?
Don't pretend it's any other way you post allsorts against people who post and comment on alternative media,you state openly you have a problem with them and they should GTFOOH i.e leave the forum
Stop playing the martyr card when it suits

You started it by going off on one when my post WAS NOT directed at you.

I do regret some of my subsequent posts mainly claiming you were paranoid, that was uncalled for.

But seriously Denzil you flew off the handle and my post was for JWH on that freedom of speech fred I was getting sick of his condescending, I should have labelled it directly at him, I certainly would now.

May 25, 2020 -- 9:21PM, stridingedge wrote:

If we were sat in Germany's place now it would surely be a different conversation.

Germany does not worship its public health service like it some kind of new religion.

One of the problems in the UK is failure of public health england to partner with the private sector to get things like testing ramped up fast and PPE made fast. Cannot move fast because of giant nature of our NHS.

"This is a dress rehearsal for when something much more severe eventually comes our way."

If that is how you see it, you might find this book of interest:  about zoonosis, the pehenomenon of animal diseases that cross over into humans. There are far more of them than I realised.

Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic by David Quammen

It's a thought-provoking and frightening read, well written and convincing. Not for the faint-hearted, but a good read, nevertheless.

Agree IT

Interesting Des Pond.

striding I haven't flown off any handles the worst thing I said was 'You sound like a fanny in that post'
Nevermind I don't want to spoil this thread some good posts here

I meant in the initial fred Denz it wasn't aimd at you, I was jesting iwth you earlier on on the same fred and w ehad not had any problem anywhere in between.









my post about what really gripes me on here is...

It was along the lines of when some post their views and others are basically sat=ying they are idiots because their view is different, sheep etc, don't know the truth.

We both said plenty after but my intention was never to have a go in the first place. It ended up spiteful and for that I do apologise. I am being polite on JWH freds but It's probably best if i just ignore his freds as It's not really stuff that I usually get anything out of.

I'd actually far rather be called a w*nker than a sheep or an idiot or shouldn't be posting on topics I know nothing about etc etc.

I'd like to bury the hatchet here and now I have no real problem with you at all.

Hatchet buried there is no need for unnecessary bad feeling I didn't think you were that type anyway.
John is a good bloke who posts alternative forms of media with lots of good info that you wouldn't otherwise see and has got alot of grief on here,he's often on the wind up in his posts back he's sharp and knows how to get a reaction he's not being personal it's banter 'Enjoy your daze' is a one liner he ends posts with.
Things get out of hand on these forums very quickly in t!t for tats meanings get lost and arguments can snowball for little good reason.
No hard feelings

Nice one.

Lockdowns do work but when the horse has already bolted then they don't work very well as was the case in New York state and here in Blighty!

2 weeks earlier and Blighty would have a similar picture to Germany.

Don't know why Germany had a better outcome than us but hard to see why it was lockdown, as they did it the same time we did.

German testing capability from day one may be a significant factor.

Many, many variables at play.

O.003 microns in size. Barely visible by electron microscope.  You cannot dictate where a virus goes.drop orange into a glass of water. Within seconds it's permeated. Corona viruses are ssupposedly aancient. Mers-corona was present in middle east 2012. Killed Arabs and we did not care. I imagine it went around the globe and nnobody batted an eye lid. 
I had a 'flu' three years in a row. 2016. Dec. First flu was worst fker I can imagine. Nearly killed me. Pain in head like someone wbacking me wwith toffeoffer hhammer. I self isolated for a two weeks. My brother hates colds aNed flus so he delivered food to my door and scampered. He got it a fortnight lafter? Waste of time. Sefind flu in Jan 2018. Almost as bad. Third flu was different in Jan 2019. Persistent. Coughing up green shot. Stayed in lungs for yr. Coughing all yr. Jan 2020 BBC red button reported virus in China. Did not hit main news for weeks? I thot I was being pessimistic because I mentioned it to my brother who had flu three yrs running too. Was I wrong. Whole world upside down . OTT, of the four. I found corona mild. Flu causes pneumonia? So where is this yrs flu? On a break?  I had sore throat. Tonsils swollen. Eyes watering. Feet pains. Chest pain. And minor symptoms. Mild. The flus before it were monsters. But I am guessing they were flu. Not been to doctor in five yrs. No way to know.

Andromeda strain film about a facility to deal with germs. The spread is uncontrollable.

Pursuit .1972 tv movie. Ben Gazzara. Eg Marshall. Not seen it on tv in thirty yrs. About a binary chemical weapon that a terrorist is about to deploy in a city. Top film.

.