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Scientists have levelled a flurry of criticism against Professor Neil Ferguson's modelling which warned 500,000 people could die from coronavirus, prompting Britain to go into lockdown.
David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco, said: 'In our commercial reality we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.'
Weeks after the model's grim prediction, the University of Edinburgh's Professor Michael Thursfield criticised Prof Ferguson's record as 'patchy' referring to predictions in the early 2000s that up to 136,000 people could die from mad cow disease and 200million from bird flu.
Dr Konstantin Boudnik, the VP of architecture at WANdisco, told The Telegraph: 'The facts from the early 2000s are just yet another confirmation that their modelling approach was flawed to the core.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8327641/Coronavirus-modelling-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-branded-mess-experts.html
This bloke, his sidekicks and Govt ministers should be grilled in a select committee this week. None of this news is a surprise.
David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco, said: 'In our commercial reality we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust.'
Weeks after the model's grim prediction, the University of Edinburgh's Professor Michael Thursfield criticised Prof Ferguson's record as 'patchy' referring to predictions in the early 2000s that up to 136,000 people could die from mad cow disease and 200million from bird flu.
Dr Konstantin Boudnik, the VP of architecture at WANdisco, told The Telegraph: 'The facts from the early 2000s are just yet another confirmation that their modelling approach was flawed to the core.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8327641/Coronavirus-modelling-Professor-Neil-Ferguson-branded-mess-experts.html
This bloke, his sidekicks and Govt ministers should be grilled in a select committee this week. None of this news is a surprise.
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Ferguson's headline figure of 510k is routinely misrepresented.
It was an estimate of deaths if nothing was done what so ever.
No case isolation, no voluntary home quarantine, no social distancing, no closure of schools and universities.
Is that a realistic scenario?
UK society would have continued as if nothing had happened, you would read about thousands of new cases, hundreds of deaths.
Yet society would continue, stiff upper lip, business as usual.
We have evidence that society wouldn't have carried on in this manner, actions were already being taken before the government intervened.
Sporting events were being cancelled despite the governments advice that there was no requirement for this to happen.
Indeed, the first line of the results summary within the report talks to this :
"In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour …."
As such, you need to look at the other estimates contained within the report.
In scenario 1, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 85-98k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing
In scenario 2, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 12-53k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, and social distancing
In scenario 3, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 9-39k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of four key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing
Viewing the report through this lens provides a significantly more balanced approach than you arrive at if you consider the 510k figure as being the inevitable result once the virus had arrived in the UK.
It was an estimate of deaths if nothing was done what so ever.
No case isolation, no voluntary home quarantine, no social distancing, no closure of schools and universities.
Is that a realistic scenario?
UK society would have continued as if nothing had happened, you would read about thousands of new cases, hundreds of deaths.
Yet society would continue, stiff upper lip, business as usual.
We have evidence that society wouldn't have carried on in this manner, actions were already being taken before the government intervened.
Sporting events were being cancelled despite the governments advice that there was no requirement for this to happen.
Indeed, the first line of the results summary within the report talks to this :
"In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour …."
As such, you need to look at the other estimates contained within the report.
In scenario 1, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 85-98k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing
In scenario 2, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 12-53k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, and social distancing
In scenario 3, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 9-39k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of four key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing
Viewing the report through this lens provides a significantly more balanced approach than you arrive at if you consider the 510k figure as being the inevitable result once the virus had arrived in the UK.
Gravy trains run fine until they hit the buffers. Ferguson and the WHO chief have got caught out and will be replaced. No one knows how good you are until you have to to prove it.
precisely; Angoosed has proved that scientists know feck all, even when they criticise their own
So what expertise in epidemic modelling does "data technology company WANdisco" have?
Goose , what evidence is there that social distancing has saved 1 life?
SD prevents herd immunity. How does that help?
The blind leading the blind has never had a more apt application...Ferguson’s model + politicians = economic ruin and deaths,
SD prevents herd immunity. How does that help?
The blind leading the blind has never had a more apt application...Ferguson’s model + politicians = economic ruin and deaths,
Don't know what everyone is getting hysterical about.
Sure, the economy is awesome countries like Germany is going to shrink a bit this year, but then next year it will simply grow by 6% instead of ~0% to 1% as forecast before SARS Mk.II rolled around.
Sure, the economy is awesome countries like Germany is going to shrink a bit this year, but then next year it will simply grow by 6% instead of ~0% to 1% as forecast before SARS Mk.II rolled around.
"herd immunity"
13 Sailors On The USS Theodore Roosevelt Have Tested Positive For Covid-19 A Second Time
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/16/13-sailors-on-the-uss-theodore-roosevelt-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-a-second-time/#561e5b4525aa
Probably more likely that they had initial false positives but herd immunity is still unproven to be reached if this disease runs unchecked.
13 Sailors On The USS Theodore Roosevelt Have Tested Positive For Covid-19 A Second Time
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/16/13-sailors-on-the-uss-theodore-roosevelt-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-a-second-time/#561e5b4525aa
Probably more likely that they had initial false positives but herd immunity is still unproven to be reached if this disease runs unchecked.
and especially for Brexiters, SARS-CoV-2 is a golden opportunity. Leaving with no FTA makes so much more sense now than it did before.
No deal Brexit will be formally announced next month.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
Nope. They can stick their rules, their courts, their deeply corrupt Parliament and commission, their 'level playing field' and everything else up their gallactico corrupto 4rses.
We will rule ourselves.
We will rule ourselves.
mini deal Brexit = some tiny deals to keep air traffic going, maybe a few important tariffs here and there. No courts, no parliament, no level playing field.
You don't want British airlines to be able to operate within the EU and vice-versa? 
Brexiters have been slacking a bit in creating them lately, so we should just derail any random thread towards Brexit.
May 17, 2020 -- 1:32PM, Burt06 wrote:
No deal Brexit will be formally announced next month.Good riddance to bad rubbish.
What was it that you guys had at the end of january? I lost money on that. Are you telling me brexit hasn't happened yet? Wtf?
dave1357
17 May 20 11:23
Joined: 05 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 12,639 | Blogger: dave1357's blog
So what expertise in epidemic modelling does "data technology company WANdisco" have?
^
What expertise in epidemic modelling does Neil Ferguson have?
17 May 20 11:23
Joined: 05 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 12,639 | Blogger: dave1357's blog
So what expertise in epidemic modelling does "data technology company WANdisco" have?
^
What expertise in epidemic modelling does Neil Ferguson have?
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