Ferguson’s 500k Death Prediction

Ferguson's headline figure of 510k is routinely misrepresented.

It was an estimate of deaths if nothing was done what so ever.
No case isolation, no voluntary home quarantine, no social distancing, no closure of schools and universities.

Is that a realistic scenario?

UK society would have continued as if nothing had happened, you would read about thousands of new cases, hundreds of deaths.
Yet society would continue, stiff upper lip, business as usual.

We have evidence that society wouldn't have carried on in this manner, actions were already being taken before the government intervened.
Sporting events were being cancelled despite the governments advice that there was no requirement for this to happen.

Indeed, the first line of the results summary within the report talks to this :
"In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour …."

As such, you need to look at the other estimates contained within the report.

In scenario 1, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 85-98k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing

In scenario 2, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 12-53k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, and social distancing

In scenario 3, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 9-39k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of four key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing

Viewing the report through this lens provides a significantly more balanced approach than you arrive at if you consider the 510k figure as being the inevitable result once the virus had arrived in the UK.

precisely; Angoosed has proved that scientists know feck all, even when they criticise their own

Goose , what evidence is there that social distancing has saved 1 life?

SD prevents herd immunity. How does that help?

The blind leading the blind has never had a more apt application...Ferguson’s model + politicians = economic ruin and deaths,

"herd immunity"

13 Sailors On The USS Theodore Roosevelt Have Tested Positive For Covid-19 A Second Time


https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/05/16/13-sailors-on-the-uss-theodore-roosevelt-have-tested-positive-for-covid-19-a-second-time/#561e5b4525aa

Probably more likely that they had initial false positives but herd immunity is still unproven to be reached if this disease runs unchecked.

No deal Brexit will be formally announced next month.

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Nope. They can stick their rules, their courts, their deeply corrupt Parliament and commission, their 'level playing field' and everything else up their gallactico corrupto 4rses.


We will rule ourselves.

Dontcha no nothin', Burtieboy?

someone's started on the brain juice early

I love brexit threads