haha R isnt significant now!

herd immunity in full cry now

stampede!!

Dr Jenny Harries said today the aim to eradicate the virus was very ambitious, code for very unlikely, similar thinking to Feb/Mar. If it can't be eradicated then R going above 1 is only a problem if hospitals are about to get overwhelmed. With the lockdown we have had 8 weeks at 0.5ish so we can have many months at just above 1 before the same capacity problems arise, plus we have the nightingales if they want to go further. Other option is permanent lockdown and restrictions.

R goes above 1 they said shut down everything again, so goes above 1 we all pack up and go home

Without access to the raw data they may as well roll ten dice and tell us how many sixes they got.
The R0 measurement is meaningless unless they show us their workings.

Yesterday the briefing was all about R and it was so important that R did not go up past 1.
Yesterday R would tell them if infections were increasing .
So today infections increased and they said pass no remarks of R it only a lettered number to refer to our way of checking for increased infections + loads of other data we use to get the R.

If it goes above 1 everyone should down tools and stop working

They said if it goes above 1 we shut down

Whatever R is, the key is WHO are being infected. Infection of younger and or healthy olduns  who quickly overcome the illness with mild or no symptoms is surely a good thing. They generate antibodies giving themselves immunity with no contagion.

If as many are saying, millions of us have been affected, the R number must have been pretty high some weeks ago. If we’re now immune, a high R number has therefore benefited the country.

injera thats fair enough,but my point was all these weeks we were told we couldnt do anything till we got it down to around 0.5.now all of a sudden it is irrelevant. also it seems to go up before weekends when they want you to stay in.

Agreed. It became the most important stat when it suited them.

Do they really know what the R rate is or was without proper testing?

I would also like to know the occupations of those testing positive, the age too. Thousands everyday, where and how? aren't we supposed to be locked down for 8 weks? How many of these infections are from hospital or care homes? The results are skewed and we may not be looking at the correct picture to make decisions. When we make decisions they also tend to be stupid ones in any case so wtf! Only one parent at a time but 15 saucepans is ok? Fcektarded beyond comprehension!

OP - For sure.

R going up is more indicative if you have a high number of cases and R should always be read along with the level of cases you have. The lower the number of cases you have the easier it is for R to rise as a single cluster of cases has more of an effect on the overall R number. That's why it's easier for R to rise and less significant that R has risen in Germany than if it has risen in the UK currently.

Yes

The R rate is currently an effective estimate using an amalgamation of all the data, which is obviously retrospective in nature. A best guess if you like, so judgement is a factor. One senses that SAGE are dabbing the brake pedal on the gvnt, perhaps ergo the public. All the signals have a downward trajectory including the ratio of positive tests to tests taken. Now testing capacity is allowing for wholesale testing across the care home function, one would anticipate that trend to continue, as more non suspected positives are being tested.

heard the Geordie mp on newsnight banging on about the  R rate deprived area,housing,underlying healkth conditions etc,etc

when the FOOOOOOK will these people ,mp,s media for once just shut the foooooook up ,open their ears and listen,just for once

the big data from the ONS this week number one finding was ,theres exactly the same chance as the youngest healthiest person in the world catching the virus as there  is the oldest unfittest  bloke in the world, which is what decides the R factor,
what the Geordie mp was banging on about doesn't come in to play till you,ve caught the virus
really boils my pish,that their to thick,to lazy,to busy banging their own drum to understand it

Probably best to stay away from Newsnight!

There's a strong correlation between ill health and wealth.

Two things at play, 1 catching the virus and 2, having poor outcomes if you do. Living in a heavily populated environment, and having a job (such as mini cab driver) where you're in confined spaces with random people or mixing households increases the chances of catching the virus. Lots of those people have ill heath (diabetes, obesity etc). So you'd anticipate people living in less affluent areas having poorer outcomes in terms of probability. Not all well off people live outside of built up areas, not all well off people avoid close contact with people outside of their household and they're not all healthy. So they can die covid positive too, it's just a lot less likely.

Ill heath and lack of wealth that should read.

I think now is the time one's needs to be savvy as to who to trust with numbers eg medics on the front line or government reps? Also, observe what's happening in Germany, Italy, Spain, S Korea and Japan.

I think our government and their reps have been "bending" the truth to suit their agenda.

No sheite Einstein!

There's no getting past you!

Indeed Mr Holding..and they call their negligent lying garbage and misery a fookin SUCCESS!!..Juan Kers.

I know scientist's aren't Gods but when they started lying to defend Government Policy / inadequacy I lost respect and stopped listening to their directives on going out and who you cannot meet / have a beer with.

Advisors advise and ministers decide..remember Cummings and his IA chum are/were attending crucial sage meetings.

Scientists dependent on Government grants doesn’t help.

Hancock will be the patsy in all this.

I saw a Select Committee meeting this morning it seemed clear to me the scientist's were trying to defend the Government. I would like to know if these scientific and medical advisers get paid for their work and how much! They seem almost hand in glove.

I still cant get my head round they didn't make any attempt to restrict the virus getting here and now they are talking about quarantine measures for June or July but not for France or Ireland. Explain that science.

Nobody is questioning their logic or science or statistical assumptions with regard flights from Wuhan, Beijing, Paris, Madrid, Milan or New York. For the life of me I cannot get my head around this.

thats right. it seems people dont want you to have the right to question anything or not to agree with the "norm".