Coronavirus could be 'wiped out in London in weeks'

'Regression analysis across UTLAs found that the only factor relating to reduction in ADIR
was the historic number of confirmed number infection/000 population, There is however
wide variation between Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) areas. Extrapolation of these
results  showed  that  unreported  community  infection  may  be  >200  times  higher  than
reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of
the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity.'

Hope in that...

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijcp.13528

paper published out of the University of Manchester and has been peer reviewed.

Great that London new cases are way down.

Maybe the Lockdown is working and the virus has no where to go? Nothing to do with "herd immunity"?

Are you going to give the lockdown some credit for something if this is true?

24 new cases in London seems ridiculously low but hopefully it's true.

How come we haven't heard about this incredible 24 new cases a day before now?..what was the previous rate a week ago?
Like everyone I hope this is true..it just seems unrealistic in a population as large as London.

The numbers I have been finding most interesting in recent weeks are all of this are the confirmed cases v deaths in Russia.  Granted they still have a lot of active cases, which still could go either way, but they're currently running at sub 1% on deaths per confirmed cases.  And if you read around, it's not like they have an all-singing, all-dancing, mega healthcare system.  Just 2% of Russians claim to be proud of it! 

Does make you wonder just how many unconfirmed cases there have been in the UK.  Hopefully the antibody test will at least be able to give some kind of clarity on that, even if it doesn't guarantee immunity or for how long.

It either suggests their deaths are tosh or the number of infections in Europe has been greatly underestimated.

The figures at face value don't look right at all in Russia.

Good. Got to stick to the lockdown and get it right down; not open up and invite Glaswegians to get the train down and re-seed it. Couple of more weeks folks. We can do this.



The 24 cases seems odd though when we're also hearing about there apparently being so many people who have no or very mild symptoms. How high could that 24 people be if we were testing much wider?

May 15, 2020 -- 10:23AM, stridingedge wrote:

The figures at face value don't look right at all in Russia.

Correct, but it took a long time for most nations to begin testing on the scale that would have been desirable.  We went ages where only those requiring hospitalisation were being tested.

the 24 number is actually 10 today on their modelling, depends if you believe there,s been 19 million cases in uk,where in countries using anti body tests spain,france etc,etc thinks its only 4% of population

PP..Heathrow still has many flights arriving from Saudi USA and Italy every day...don't worry about the Weegies!

Fortune Favours the Brave    

London calling to the underworld
come out of the cupboard
you boys and girls

itp..so 4 tomorrow and 1.6 the next day and so on?

We Need this community antibody testing Lat and the jigsaw will be far more complete.

itp r/e antibody tests used abroad...thought they just found one that actually works announced yesterday?

It could be that countries like Germany and Austria who are being congratulated now, have got it wrong, because not enough people have been infected to come out of lockdown effetively.

Govt currently negotiating Sofia.

sofiakenny
yes halves every 3.5 days,

every series of tests proves the 19/20 million figure to have had it ridiculous

over the last 10 days or so a million essential workers,with symptons tested only 3% positive
the manchester uni test continually testing over 5,000 people only had 33 positives from 30 households ,not even passing it on in the household unless most lived alone,

if the 20 million figure were to be believed eventually you,ll get to the point where you test a large group of people who,ve been locked away from virus and 60,70,80 % of them are going to have to test positive,highly unlikely when those working amongst the virus ,showing symptons are only showing 3/4% positive

so we get herd immunity at 10-20% but 29% of the population may already have had the disease, how does that work please?

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261058066495074304

https://twitter.com/bioinformagic/status/1261199457858789377

the manchester paper has been widely rubbished, the author has taken to blocking his critics.


on the other hand does the evidence that the actual numbers infected are quite low (from spain and france) support the liverpool study? i havent a clue, i am no scientist but it would provide light at the end of a very dark tunnel.

media on Monday saying virus he forever learn to live with it ,2 weeks time its eradicated in one of the worlds biggest cities,rejoice

leaving me confused.com

swagman you ain't alone!

I hope no ones wasting billions on a vaccine, ,

house prices in London falling 16% on tues,gone up 35% in last 12 hours, right wing media reporting on the shrewdies selling up before prices drop,they,ll all be panicing now londons immune from virus ,

keep updated for next bulletin

juce how come Thailand getting away with this virus..one of the first countries to get a case.

Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.

"…full lockdown policies of France, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom haven’t had the expected effects in the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our results show a general decay trend in the growth rates and reproduction numbers two to three weeks before the full lockdown policies would be expected to have visible effects.

Estimates of daily and total deaths numbers using pre-lockdown trends suggest that no lives were saved by this strategy, in comparison with pre-lockdown, less restrictive, social distancing policies.

Comparison of the epidemic’s evolution between the fully locked down countries and neighboring countries applying social distancing measures only, confirms the absence of any effects of home containment.

As a concluding remark, it should be pointed out that, since the full lockdown strategies are shown to have no impact on the epidemic’s slowdown, one should consider their potentially high inherent death toll as a net loss of human lives."

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1.full.pdf

Expanded commentary, well worth a look

www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyoaun4c-9E

Getting harder and harder to argue against tbh.

lux..in laymans terms does this mean that staying in is pointless but distancing is an effective game plan..Sweden deaths way way higher than their neighbours(so far)

Care Homes been their downfall.

No country has a good record r/e care home deaths..I believe they provided 80% of Canada's fatalities.

From the study lux quoted:- 'On the other hand, results for Sweden suggest that taking  no  action  at  all  may  yield  a  more  variable decay of the epidemic....

Evolution of the epidemic in Sweden  however  indicates  that,  in  the  absence  of any social distancing measures, the epidemic’s decay may  be  subject  to  larger  fluctuations.'

What is he on about? Sweden has taken no social distancing measures and no measures at all? That's absolute bollócks.

a big stretch but if you believe everything we,re told, sweeden and uk had the same advice ,same thinking etc etc,
only difference sweeden backed their health service to cope with the outbreak,where as the uk didn't/couldn't,sweeden have used social distancing,shielding etc from the start

He explains the difference between Sweden and countries that have locked down by claiming that Sweden did nothing and just let it run rife.
I suppose he has to come up with some reason other than locking down to explain it in order to justify his findings but that is complete horseshít.

Sweden has/had more effective social distancing than any other country in the world from day 1 (apart from other Scandinavian countries perhaps). Most people are already isolated from others and work from home some of the time. The government told them to distance more and work from home more before they had a big outbreak, but their numbers are far higher than similar neighbouring countries that locked down. That is because they didn't lock down and their neighbours did.

TBF Lurka I don't think IT has ever claimed Sweden has done nothing?

I'm not talking about IT. I'm quoting from the study lux linked and I've used actual quotes from it.

London virus free madame tussards open

Wemberlee here we come.....

Apologies Lurka

no worries mate

I guess the Telegraph wants to water down the stay home message as much as it can...poor Boris can only mix message so much.

same London figures show 18% of 5 to 14 yr olds have had virus ,which would blow school opening out of the water, the forum sage inside trader was assuring us school kids didn't get the virus 2 days ago

People continue to conflate levels of infection with the death rate. They are not fully correlated.

1st time poster
15 May 20 11:13
Joined: 25 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 39,687 | Blogger: 1st time poster's blog
same London figures show 18% of 5 to 14 yr olds have had virus ,which would blow school opening out of the water, the forum sage inside trader was assuring us school kids didn't get the virus 2 days ago

^

Couldn't get it?  Never said that pal.

I quoted the Swiss study that found most kids under ten likely to not be able to transmit it. This study got their schools back.

I also quoted English Hospital deaths where there have been THREE for people under 20 with no underlying conditions (12 in total).

May 15, 2020 -- 12:12PM, sofiakenny wrote:

I guess the Telegraph wants to water down the stay home message as much as it can...poor Boris can only mix message so much.

Do you think that literally everyone should stay at home all the time? The message was an extremely blunt instrument in the first place, but one that many from the left appear to have taken literally.

Cider..if you have no  new infection then you are out of the woods...

BTW I am more optimistic than ever that we can beat this thing the more research that is done.

Not sure why some people are such pessimists even in the face of good news.

May 15, 2020 -- 12:21PM, sofiakenny wrote:

Cider..if you have no

If you believe that London only has 24 new cases then you are almost virus free aren't you?

Don't know what happened there. So you're advocating everyone stays at home literally until there's no cases? So how do you find out there's no cases if there's no testing?

Research carried out would indicate the lockdown has worked in many countries as predicted

That's before you presumably run out of things to eat.

IT..we all want rid ourselves of this way of life!!...but unfortunately we can not believe everything we are being sold.

^That is the crux,the lockdowns are working and the herd immunity in the short term at least leads to a lot more life loss,is that correct?

----you-have-to-laugh---
15 May 20 11:25
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,215 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Research carried out would indicate the lockdown has worked in many countries as predicted

^

Not finding that. It may have helped slow the growth. But basic social distancing would have done that as Sweden has proved.

The data suggests that the rate of growth had slowed well before the effects of lockdown come into play.

The left in a nutshell right now - I don't care if other people need to be exposed to risk to keep the country going. As long as I keep my income for doing nothing I'm happy to sit on me arse.

Apologies Lurka, burning breakfast...

Yes, a fair point that appears to cast doubt over the whole study, it's certainly unclear...

"Evolution of the epidemic in Sweden however indicates that, in the absence of any social distancing measures"

Perhaps referring to a point in time, the evolution, in which distancing measure were absent?

I feel a lot more upbeat about the situation than a month ago!

Skimming through he does make repeated reference to pre and post lockdown time evolutions of the epidemic.

I need to read the whole thing properly when I have time...

As a forum we need to keep putting pressure on our contacts in the health service and the academic world to publish all the details they have.

The government is treating us like children. If they give us the facts we can all make our own choices using common sense.

Will be great when we get a decent community infection rate estimate IT.

Not sure.

I know two people who been in hospital who tested positive.

Son-in-law in Spain (32). Hospital for 6 weeks. Got out last week. Able to walk again now.

Wife's best friend (46). 3 weeks in hospital on Oxygen. Out a couple of weeks ago and slowly regaining strength.

Interesting evidence that there is a significant impact to those surviving infection.

seems like the ventilators were a major problem

Indeed. The storage costs for thousands of £40k a piece unused ventilators is going to be ongoing.

smoke & mirrors

The Oxford Team report "Encouraging news regarding vaccine" All in the same day - doh

Covid 19 infects the respiratory tract . Much like influenza or the common cold .These viruses , in the Northern hemisphere , follow a pattern

where they peak around Jan/Feb and tail off towards may/june . They begin to increase again around October . It is reasonable to assume that this 

virus will operate in a similar way . It was not already endemic in our population until late 2019 / beginning 2020 so peaked a few months later .

I would feel fairly confident that infections and deaths will be minimal within a month apart from care homes . The virus will kick in again

around October .

We have never had a vaccine for a coronavirus .

Immunity is not guaranteed .

The government already know this but will insist that their measures were the real factor in the summer demise .

We will see .

about 8% of those hospitalised ,key workers with symptons,those closest to the virus at its peak, if you believe all these stats , that would mean of all those lockrd up,shielded from the virus ,there,d have to be huge percentages of people in this group to test positive to get to the 20 million plus who,ve supposedly had the virus
common sense most tell us the % of people locked up ,shielded,showing no symptons, must be less than the 8% working amidst the height of the virus and showing symptons,
rest of the world seems to think 3/4% have hade it,why should 20% plus of uk have had it

The demise of Coronavirus or Londoners, which will happen 1st? Without any Londoner there will be no coronavirus. Fact or fiction?

May 15, 2020 -- 3:15PM, 1st time poster wrote:

about 8% of those hospitalised ,key workers with symptons,those closest to the virus at its peak, if you believe all these stats , that would mean of all those lockrd up,shielded from the virus ,there,d have to be huge percentages of people in this group to test positive to get to the 20 million plus who,ve supposedly had the viruscommon sense most tell us the % of people locked up ,shielded,showing no symptons, must be less than the 8% working amidst the height of the virus and showing symptons,rest of the world seems to think 3/4% have hade it,why should 20% plus of uk have had it

Is it not possible that some of them would have had immunity having already contracted it earlier in proceedings?  The swab test only tells you if you have it any given time.

if less than 10% about 8 of  those with symptons,whove been working moving around/amongst the virus at its peak,to me that would tie in with other countries saying overall 3/4% have been infected,some people doing the numbers for uk are saying add in all the people including those with no symptons and been housebound for 8 weeks and there,s 3 times more positives 20 to 25%,just doesn't make sense to anyone surely,you were 3 times safer  working amongst the virus at its peak than hid under the bed for 8 weeks,must be nonsense

I was rather hoping Landan would be wiped out !

Northern Pansy!

'AFTERTHOUGHT', behave. I live in London, and I like London a lot; just some Londoners are sh1t.

we need London it attracts a lot of the rubbish/low life

I am wondering if there is much immunity in London communities. We have a lot of immigrants who travel and receive guests from all around the world whereas Northern Monkeys tend to go to Scarborough, Skeggie and Blackpool or Caravan holidays and are probably more vulnerable because they have inferior genes after eating turnips and beans for centuries?

Did you know that measles is the most infectious virus with a reproductive number of 15.
MERS has a reproductive number of less than 1, whereas SARS-CoV-2 has a reproductive number between 2 and 3.

May 15, 2020 -- 12:32PM, Cider wrote:

The left in a nutshell right now - I don't care if other people need to be exposed to risk to keep the country going. As long as I keep my income for doing nothing I'm happy to sit on me arse.

I echo your sentiment 100%.

Paid idleness is rather attractive at the moment and gets more so as the weather improves

Listen to the silence, let it ring on
Eyes, dark grey lenses frightened of the sun
We would have a fine time living in the night
Left to blind destruction, waiting for our sight

Release the Orcs !

The official estimate of the pandemic "R" number has risen slightly over the last week, according to a consensus by scientists advising the government.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the UK reproduction number for the coronavirus is now between 0.7 and 1, up from 0.5 to 0.9 last week.

A modelling study by Public Health England and the Cambridge MRC Biostatistics Unit has concluded that the R number in London could be as low as 0.4, with an estimate of just 24 new cases a day.

But government scientists are understood to be sceptical that the number of new infections is that low.

There were 49 patients admitted to hospitals in London yesterday.

For every admission there are likely to be 20 other cases in the community - bringing the total number of new infections closer to 1,000.

Estimates of the R number are notoriously difficult because of the lag between the point at which people are infected and the time that data is collected.

KILLJOY

0.7-1.0

Paid idleness is rather attractive at the moment and gets more so as the weather improves

I think the Government has backed itself into a corner here. My job could have been done easily right through this lock down with minimal risk. I was fuming at the time. Then the furlough came out and I thought ok. Was bored and wanted to go back to work but now think F it. I can ride my bike and catch up with all the stuff I should have done.

I am not scared to go back to work but Healthy and Safety are going to have a mare over this. I can understand why employers would not want to start work yet because of fears over being sued.

80% was too generous but anything less probably would not have worked as many people are fully committed.Frankly I am told we may be going back late June but I don't think we will and I have now stopped drinking from Monday for the first time since this started so am going to increase the work outs thank you very much tax payer.

It is an unholy mess and will drag on until October I am convinced. I can't be a*rsed to go back because until we have a fully functioning public transport system and children going back to school the economy cannot possibly recover as businesses need turnover, margins are thin.

I thought they could have got construction, transport, parks and recreation, garden centres and DIY working straight away but no. They have dug themselves a hole, which, is going to get bigger because hundreds of thousands of people will be losing their jobs.

We are in deep dudu and it is of the Governments making. It is not completely catastrophic but it is a terrible terrible mess.

My next door neighbour works at a primary school.  The head has sent out an email to all parents asking their intentions on sending their children back before September.  Just 18% are in favour of doing so...!

the top torys,the real hard liners want the workers back at their jobs making money.this will happen whatever.the figures will be issued via the media to support whatever agenda they have.they want londoners back,their figures have miraciously plummeted. other sectors figures will drop as they need to fit the agenda

The stories we are regularly hearing now from here and the states about this off shoot of covid that affects children will be enough to make plenty of parents of young children scared enough to keep their kids off. They won't reason about how rare it is, kids becoming ill is a different animal altogether.

Even Trump might think twice in ordering children to sacrifice in order for him to win an election.

this is how slow mp,s, mayors , councillor,s are, bloke on from Newcastle council today saying the older kids should go back 1st,he actually thinks the tory,s are bothered about your kids education, they,ve picked the young kids so mam and dad can go back to work,they want school to be used as child care,baby sitters,surely there isn't anybody ,never mind a politician ,who cant grasp that,FFS

Correct

A teachers' union has attacked the government after attending a crunch meeting to discuss reopening schools on 1 June.

The NASUWT said the talks "raised more questions than answers" - and it claimed Number 10 provided no information "to change the widely held view that the evidence base for opening schools from 1 June is weak".

General secretary Dr Patrick Roach said: "The NASUWT remains clear that no school should reopen until it can demonstrate that it is safe to do so.

"No clear information was provided on what modelling has been undertaken in relation to potential transmission rates when schools open more widely. Nothing in the meeting provided reassurance for the deeply worried and anxious school workforce."

Cases down in Florida and some other states that have reopened! Mind you lets see what they are like in a couple of weeks! I do think if we are careful and observe hygienic protocols we should avoid catching it to a large degree.

Why are the Northern monkeys getting it? haven't we all been in lock down for 8 weeks? Dirty salty peanut eating bstards!

NORTHERNIST BUSTARD