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15 May 20
08:51
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25 Aug 05
The R value in London is down to 0.4.
Only a handful of new cases a day.
Does this mean that the Liverpool School of Tropic Medicine is correct on herd immunity requirement being 10-20%?
Certainly would explain why the exponential growth of cases goes to flat rate everywhere after 4-6 weeks.
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-virus-could-be-wiped-out-in-london-in-weeks-as-rate-of-infection-is-slowing-say-researchers-11988579
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2.full.pdf
Only a handful of new cases a day.
Does this mean that the Liverpool School of Tropic Medicine is correct on herd immunity requirement being 10-20%?
Certainly would explain why the exponential growth of cases goes to flat rate everywhere after 4-6 weeks.
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-virus-could-be-wiped-out-in-london-in-weeks-as-rate-of-infection-is-slowing-say-researchers-11988579
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2.full.pdf
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'Regression analysis across UTLAs found that the only factor relating to reduction in ADIR
was the historic number of confirmed number infection/000 population, There is however wide variation between Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) areas. Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity.' Hope in that... https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijcp.13528 paper published out of the University of Manchester and has been peer reviewed. |
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Great that London new cases are way down.
Maybe the Lockdown is working and the virus has no where to go? Nothing to do with "herd immunity"? |
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Are you going to give the lockdown some credit for something if this is true?
24 new cases in London seems ridiculously low but hopefully it's true. |
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How come we haven't heard about this incredible 24 new cases a day before now?..what was the previous rate a week ago?
Like everyone I hope this is true..it just seems unrealistic in a population as large as London. |
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The numbers I have been finding most interesting in recent weeks are all of this are the confirmed cases v deaths in Russia. Granted they still have a lot of active cases, which still could go either way, but they're currently running at sub 1% on deaths per confirmed cases. And if you read around, it's not like they have an all-singing, all-dancing, mega healthcare system. Just 2% of Russians claim to be proud of it!
Does make you wonder just how many unconfirmed cases there have been in the UK. Hopefully the antibody test will at least be able to give some kind of clarity on that, even if it doesn't guarantee immunity or for how long. |
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It either suggests their deaths are tosh or the number of infections in Europe has been greatly underestimated.
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The figures at face value don't look right at all in Russia.
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Good. Got to stick to the lockdown and get it right down; not open up and invite Glaswegians to get the train down and re-seed it. Couple of more weeks folks. We can do this.
The 24 cases seems odd though when we're also hearing about there apparently being so many people who have no or very mild symptoms. How high could that 24 people be if we were testing much wider? |
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the 24 number is actually 10 today on their modelling, depends if you believe there,s been 19 million cases in uk,where in countries using anti body tests spain,france etc,etc thinks its only 4% of population
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PP..Heathrow still has many flights arriving from Saudi USA and Italy every day...don't worry about the Weegies!
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Fortune Favours the Brave
 London calling to the underworld come out of the cupboard you boys and girls  |
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itp..so 4 tomorrow and 1.6 the next day and so on?
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We Need this community antibody testing Lat and the jigsaw will be far more complete.
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itp r/e antibody tests used abroad...thought they just found one that actually works announced yesterday?
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It could be that countries like Germany and Austria who are being congratulated now, have got it wrong, because not enough people have been infected to come out of lockdown effetively.
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Govt currently negotiating Sofia.
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sofiakenny
yes halves every 3.5 days, every series of tests proves the 19/20 million figure to have had it ridiculous over the last 10 days or so a million essential workers,with symptons tested only 3% positive the manchester uni test continually testing over 5,000 people only had 33 positives from 30 households ,not even passing it on in the household unless most lived alone, if the 20 million figure were to be believed eventually you,ll get to the point where you test a large group of people who,ve been locked away from virus and 60,70,80 % of them are going to have to test positive,highly unlikely when those working amongst the virus ,showing symptons are only showing 3/4% positive |
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so we get herd immunity at 10-20% but 29% of the population may already have had the disease, how does that work please?
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1261058066495074304 https://twitter.com/bioinformagic/status/1261199457858789377 the manchester paper has been widely rubbished, the author has taken to blocking his critics. on the other hand does the evidence that the actual numbers infected are quite low (from spain and france) support the liverpool study? i havent a clue, i am no scientist but it would provide light at the end of a very dark tunnel. |
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media on Monday saying virus he forever learn to live with it ,2 weeks time its eradicated in one of the worlds biggest cities,rejoice
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leaving me confused.com
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swagman you ain't alone!
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I hope no ones wasting billions on a vaccine,
,house prices in London falling 16% on tues,gone up 35% in last 12 hours, right wing media reporting on the shrewdies selling up before prices drop,they,ll all be panicing now londons immune from virus  ,keep updated for next bulletin |
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juce how come Thailand getting away with this virus..one of the first countries to get a case.
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Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.
"…full lockdown policies of France, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom haven’t had the expected effects in the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our results show a general decay trend in the growth rates and reproduction numbers two to three weeks before the full lockdown policies would be expected to have visible effects. Estimates of daily and total deaths numbers using pre-lockdown trends suggest that no lives were saved by this strategy, in comparison with pre-lockdown, less restrictive, social distancing policies. Comparison of the epidemic’s evolution between the fully locked down countries and neighboring countries applying social distancing measures only, confirms the absence of any effects of home containment. As a concluding remark, it should be pointed out that, since the full lockdown strategies are shown to have no impact on the epidemic’s slowdown, one should consider their potentially high inherent death toll as a net loss of human lives." www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1.full.pdf Expanded commentary, well worth a look www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyoaun4c-9E |
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Getting harder and harder to argue against tbh.
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lux..in laymans terms does this mean that staying in is pointless but distancing is an effective game plan..Sweden deaths way way higher than their neighbours(so far)
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Care Homes been their downfall.
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No country has a good record r/e care home deaths..I believe they provided 80% of Canada's fatalities.
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From the study lux quoted:- 'On the other hand, results for Sweden suggest that taking no action at all may yield a more variable decay of the epidemic....
Evolution of the epidemic in Sweden however indicates that, in the absence of any social distancing measures, the epidemic’s decay may be subject to larger fluctuations.' What is he on about? Sweden has taken no social distancing measures and no measures at all? That's absolute bollócks. |
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a big stretch but if you believe everything we,re told, sweeden and uk had the same advice ,same thinking etc etc,
only difference sweeden backed their health service to cope with the outbreak,where as the uk didn't/couldn't,sweeden have used social distancing,shielding etc from the start |
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He explains the difference between Sweden and countries that have locked down by claiming that Sweden did nothing and just let it run rife.
I suppose he has to come up with some reason other than locking down to explain it in order to justify his findings but that is complete horseshít. Sweden has/had more effective social distancing than any other country in the world from day 1 (apart from other Scandinavian countries perhaps). Most people are already isolated from others and work from home some of the time. The government told them to distance more and work from home more before they had a big outbreak, but their numbers are far higher than similar neighbouring countries that locked down. That is because they didn't lock down and their neighbours did. |
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TBF Lurka I don't think IT has ever claimed Sweden has done nothing?
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I'm not talking about IT. I'm quoting from the study lux linked and I've used actual quotes from it.
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London virus free madame tussards open
Wemberlee here we come..... |
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Apologies Lurka
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no worries mate
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I guess the Telegraph wants to water down the stay home message as much as it can...poor Boris can only mix message so much.
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same London figures show 18% of 5 to 14 yr olds have had virus ,which would blow school opening out of the water, the forum sage inside trader was assuring us school kids didn't get the virus 2 days ago
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