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Coronavirus could be 'wiped out in London in weeks'

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Replies: 92
By:
Cider
When: 15 May 20 12:13
People continue to conflate levels of infection with the death rate. They are not fully correlated.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 15 May 20 12:20
1st time poster
15 May 20 11:13
Joined: 25 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 39,687 | Blogger: 1st time poster's blog
same London figures show 18% of 5 to 14 yr olds have had virus ,which would blow school opening out of the water, the forum sage inside trader was assuring us school kids didn't get the virus 2 days ago

^

Couldn't get it?  Never said that pal.

I quoted the Swiss study that found most kids under ten likely to not be able to transmit it. This study got their schools back.

I also quoted English Hospital deaths where there have been THREE for people under 20 with no underlying conditions (12 in total).
By:
Cider
When: 15 May 20 12:20

May 15, 2020 -- 12:12PM, sofiakenny wrote:


I guess the Telegraph wants to water down the stay home message as much as it can...poor Boris can only mix message so much.


Do you think that literally everyone should stay at home all the time? The message was an extremely blunt instrument in the first place, but one that many from the left appear to have taken literally.

By:
sofiakenny
When: 15 May 20 12:21
Cider..if you have no  new infection then you are out of the woods...
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 15 May 20 12:22
BTW I am more optimistic than ever that we can beat this thing the more research that is done.

Not sure why some people are such pessimists even in the face of good news.
By:
Cider
When: 15 May 20 12:23

May 15, 2020 -- 12:21PM, sofiakenny wrote:


Cider..if you have no

By:
sofiakenny
When: 15 May 20 12:24
If you believe that London only has 24 new cases then you are almost virus free aren't you?
By:
Cider
When: 15 May 20 12:24
Don't know what happened there. So you're advocating everyone stays at home literally until there's no cases? So how do you find out there's no cases if there's no testing?
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 15 May 20 12:25
Research carried out would indicate the lockdown has worked in many countries as predicted
By:
Cider
When: 15 May 20 12:25
That's before you presumably run out of things to eat.
By:
sofiakenny
When: 15 May 20 12:26
IT..we all want rid ourselves of this way of life!!...but unfortunately we can not believe everything we are being sold.
By:
lapsy pa
When: 15 May 20 12:27
^That is the crux,the lockdowns are working and the herd immunity in the short term at least leads to a lot more life loss,is that correct?
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 15 May 20 12:28
----you-have-to-laugh---
15 May 20 11:25
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 8,215 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
Research carried out would indicate the lockdown has worked in many countries as predicted

^

Not finding that. It may have helped slow the growth. But basic social distancing would have done that as Sweden has proved.

The data suggests that the rate of growth had slowed well before the effects of lockdown come into play.
By:
Cider
When: 15 May 20 12:32
The left in a nutshell right now - I don't care if other people need to be exposed to risk to keep the country going. As long as I keep my income for doing nothing I'm happy to sit on me arse.
By:
lux
When: 15 May 20 12:32
Apologies Lurka, burning breakfast...

Yes, a fair point that appears to cast doubt over the whole study, it's certainly unclear...

"Evolution of the epidemic in Sweden however indicates that, in the absence of any social distancing measures"

Perhaps referring to a point in time, the evolution, in which distancing measure were absent?
By:
stridingedge
When: 15 May 20 12:35
I feel a lot more upbeat about the situation than a month ago!
By:
lux
When: 15 May 20 12:38
Skimming through he does make repeated reference to pre and post lockdown time evolutions of the epidemic.

I need to read the whole thing properly when I have time...
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 15 May 20 12:39
As a forum we need to keep putting pressure on our contacts in the health service and the academic world to publish all the details they have.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 15 May 20 12:40
The government is treating us like children. If they give us the facts we can all make our own choices using common sense.
By:
stridingedge
When: 15 May 20 12:41
Will be great when we get a decent community infection rate estimate IT.
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 15 May 20 12:47
Not sure.

I know two people who been in hospital who tested positive.

Son-in-law in Spain (32). Hospital for 6 weeks. Got out last week. Able to walk again now.

Wife's best friend (46). 3 weeks in hospital on Oxygen. Out a couple of weeks ago and slowly regaining strength.
By:
Angoose
When: 15 May 20 12:57
Interesting evidence that there is a significant impact to those surviving infection.
By:
nineteen points
When: 15 May 20 13:05
seems like the ventilators were a major problem
By:
InsiderTrader
When: 15 May 20 13:09
Indeed. The storage costs for thousands of £40k a piece unused ventilators is going to be ongoing.
By:
Baphornet
When: 15 May 20 13:10
smoke & mirrors

The Oxford Team report "Encouraging news regarding vaccine" All in the same day - doh
By:
eyeball
When: 15 May 20 15:08
Covid 19 infects the respiratory tract . Much like influenza or the common cold .These viruses , in the Northern hemisphere , follow a pattern

where they peak around Jan/Feb and tail off towards may/june . They begin to increase again around October . It is reasonable to assume that this 

virus will operate in a similar way . It was not already endemic in our population until late 2019 / beginning 2020 so peaked a few months later .

I would feel fairly confident that infections and deaths will be minimal within a month apart from care homes . The virus will kick in again

around October .

We have never had a vaccine for a coronavirus .

Immunity is not guaranteed .

The government already know this but will insist that their measures were the real factor in the summer demise .

We will see .
By:
1st time poster
When: 15 May 20 15:15
about 8% of those hospitalised ,key workers with symptons,those closest to the virus at its peak, if you believe all these stats , that would mean of all those lockrd up,shielded from the virus ,there,d have to be huge percentages of people in this group to test positive to get to the 20 million plus who,ve supposedly had the virus
common sense most tell us the % of people locked up ,shielded,showing no symptons, must be less than the 8% working amidst the height of the virus and showing symptons,
rest of the world seems to think 3/4% have hade it,why should 20% plus of uk have had it
By:
impossible123
When: 15 May 20 15:22
The demise of Coronavirus or Londoners, which will happen 1st? Without any Londoner there will be no coronavirus. Fact or fiction?
By:
Latalomne
When: 15 May 20 15:23

May 15, 2020 -- 3:15PM, 1st time poster wrote:


about 8% of those hospitalised ,key workers with symptons,those closest to the virus at its peak, if you believe all these stats , that would mean of all those lockrd up,shielded from the virus ,there,d have to be huge percentages of people in this group to test positive to get to the 20 million plus who,ve supposedly had the viruscommon sense most tell us the % of people locked up ,shielded,showing no symptons, must be less than the 8% working amidst the height of the virus and showing symptons,rest of the world seems to think 3/4% have hade it,why should 20% plus of uk have had it


Is it not possible that some of them would have had immunity having already contracted it earlier in proceedings?  The swab test only tells you if you have it any given time.

By:
1st time poster
When: 15 May 20 15:34
if less than 10% about 8 of  those with symptons,whove been working moving around/amongst the virus at its peak,to me that would tie in with other countries saying overall 3/4% have been infected,some people doing the numbers for uk are saying add in all the people including those with no symptons and been housebound for 8 weeks and there,s 3 times more positives 20 to 25%,just doesn't make sense to anyone surely,you were 3 times safer  working amongst the virus at its peak than hid under the bed for 8 weeks,must be nonsense
By:
AFTERTHOUGHT
When: 15 May 20 15:42
I was rather hoping Landan would be wiped out !
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 15 May 20 15:47
Northern Pansy!
By:
impossible123
When: 15 May 20 15:50
'AFTERTHOUGHT', behave. I live in London, and I like London a lot; just some Londoners are sh1t.
By:
1st time poster
When: 15 May 20 15:50
we need London it attracts a lot of the rubbish/low life
By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 15 May 20 16:00
I am wondering if there is much immunity in London communities. We have a lot of immigrants who travel and receive guests from all around the world whereas Northern Monkeys tend to go to Scarborough, Skeggie and Blackpool or Caravan holidays and are probably more vulnerable because they have inferior genes after eating turnips and beans for centuries?
By:
Angoose
When: 15 May 20 16:04
Did you know that measles is the most infectious virus with a reproductive number of 15.
MERS has a reproductive number of less than 1, whereas SARS-CoV-2 has a reproductive number between 2 and 3.
By:
Petraco
When: 15 May 20 16:08

May 15, 2020 -- 12:32PM, Cider wrote:


The left in a nutshell right now - I don't care if other people need to be exposed to risk to keep the country going. As long as I keep my income for doing nothing I'm happy to sit on me arse.


I echo your sentiment 100%.

Paid idleness is rather attractive at the moment and gets more so as the weather improves Cool

By:
Angoose
When: 15 May 20 16:08
Listen to the silence, let it ring on
Eyes, dark grey lenses frightened of the sun
We would have a fine time living in the night
Left to blind destruction, waiting for our sight
By:
AFTERTHOUGHT
When: 15 May 20 16:11
Release the Orcs !
By:
Angoose
When: 15 May 20 16:12
The official estimate of the pandemic "R" number has risen slightly over the last week, according to a consensus by scientists advising the government.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the UK reproduction number for the coronavirus is now between 0.7 and 1, up from 0.5 to 0.9 last week.
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