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casemoney
10 May 20 19:29
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Report lapsy pa May 11, 2020 10:45 AM BST
Really?

Google; Kent live news coronavirus full list of schools,businesses,gp surgeries,hospitals affected by the covid 19 outbreak.

That is the 13th of March, some list and that is just Kent.
Report The Knight May 11, 2020 10:48 AM BST
For all the liberals on here telling us how bad the virus could be....

The recession will be a depression if we are not very lucky now. In a depression, the death rate soars. Especially with a 'snowflake' society like we have today.

Either the virus is allowed to run its course and we develop herd immunity, or we wreck the country's economy and its health services for at least a decade through trying to preserve life.

Both courses of action will result in a lot of extra people dying. Sad, but it really is about time 'Snowflake UK' manned up here and faced facts about how we have a pandemic which could well be as bad as the 1918-20 one.

BJ is not up to being PM, in my view, and things could have been done better. BUT, nobody really knows what to do and the constant carping about what governments do actually do is probably affecting their judgment now. It shouldn't of course, but the obsession with social media is a downside of the internet we could have done without.

Last night's message was a mess but that comes about through a government trying to please too many people instead of just doing what they think.
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 10:57 AM BST
lapsy pa
Date Joined: 29 Jan 09
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11 May 20 09:45
Joined: 29 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 3,789 | Blogger: lapsy pa's blog
Really?

Google; Kent live news coronavirus full list of schools,businesses,gp surgeries,hospitals affected by the covid 19 outbreak.

That is the 13th of March, some list and that is just Kent.

^

This...?

https://www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/kent-coronavirus-full-list-schools-3949360

^

As I said above....

There are no reported cases of a child spreading Covid to an adult.

There are no reported clusters coming out of any school anywhere in the world.

Where is the evidence closing primary schools stops the spread of the disease?


Certainly nothing in that article.
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 11:00 AM BST
Given that contact tracing was abandoned in March, how would it be possible to determine if children had spread COVID to adults ?
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 11:03 AM BST
UK is not the only country in the world Angoose.

The fact we have not seen any cluster anywhere in the world coming out of a primary school suggests there is no evidence closing them stops the spread.

You got any evidence suggesting closing primary schools stops the spread?
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 11:07 AM BST
Tell us about your AI programming, the forum would really like to know.
Are you involved in machine learning, natural language programming, robitics ?
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 11:08 AM BST
Angoose if you want to start a thread on AI be my guest.

Interesting you dodge the schools evidence question.

Very interesting indeed.
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 11, 2020 11:09 AM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 4:48AM, The Knight wrote:


For all the liberals on here telling us how bad the virus could be....The recession will be a depression if we are not very lucky now. In a depression, the death rate soars. Especially with a 'snowflake' society like we have today. Either the virus is allowed to run its course and we develop herd immunity, or we wreck the country's economy and its health services for at least a decade through trying to preserve life. Both courses of action will result in a lot of extra people dying. Sad, but it really is about time 'Snowflake UK' manned up here and faced facts about how we have a pandemic which could well be as bad as the 1918-20 one. BJ is not up to being PM, in my view, and things could have been done better. BUT, nobody really knows what to do and the constant carping about what governments do actually do is probably affecting their judgment now. It shouldn't of course, but the obsession with social media is a downside of the internet we could have done without. Last night's message was a mess but that comes about through a government trying to please too many people instead of just doing what they think.


Deal with the here and now, the future is uncertain and we can make decisions to deal with that. But seeing as we're just off commemorating VE Day and the sacrifices thousands of people made, I don't want to roll over and sacrifice thousands more for the sake of capitalism. Every decent analysis says Brexit will damage the economy. HS2 is a white elephant, now more than ever. How much will renewing Trident cost? See, it's easy. If you really want to ensure we don't kill further people then simply re-prioritise your policies.


Fact is, we've got recent evidence of what not to do. Austerity was the disaster. There was a choice to cut services and spending to vital areas. If Brown had remained in charge we'd have followed a different route, rebounded quicker and saved thousands of lives killed by austerity. Let's stay safe, get the infection rate down to Feb levels and look to re-open slowly and carefully using practical methods to supress and further outbreaks.

Report lapsy pa May 11, 2020 11:10 AM BST
Even the very 1st one Dover Christ Church Academy; "a number of pupils are self isolating after developing covid 19 symptons.

13th of March.
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 11:19 AM BST
New Studies Add to Evidence that Children May Transmit the Coronavirus
Experts said the new data suggest that cases could soar in many U.S. communities if schools reopen soon.

Among the most important unanswered questions about Covid-19 is this: What role do children play in keeping the pandemic going?

Fewer children seem to get infected by the coronavirus than adults, and most of those who do have mild symptoms, if any. But do they pass the virus on to adults and continue the chain of transmission?

The answer is key to deciding whether and when to reopen schools, a step that President Trump urged states to consider before the summer.

Two new studies offer compelling evidence that children can transmit the virus. Neither proved it, but the evidence was strong enough to suggest that schools should be kept closed for now, many epidemiologists who were not involved in the research said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/health/coronavirus-children-transmission-school.html
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 11:19 AM BST
In one study, published last week in the journal Science, a team analyzed data from two cities in China — Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, and Shanghai — and found that children were about a third as susceptible to coronavirus infection as adults were.

But when schools were open, they found, children had about three times as many contacts as adults, and three times as many opportunities to become infected, essentially evening out their risk.

Based on their data, the researchers estimated that closing schools is not enough on its own to stop an outbreak, but it can reduce the surge by about 40 to 60 percent and slow the epidemic’s course.
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 11:36 AM BST
Not talking about Ferguson style guesses Angoose.

Any scientific evidence of any cluster coming out of a primary school anywhere in the world?
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 11:40 AM BST
There you go again, promote the studies that agree with your agenda, dismiss the ones that don't.
Report edy May 11, 2020 11:44 AM BST
IT doesn't understand the basics of science.
Report edy May 11, 2020 11:44 AM BST
Or doesn't wish to.
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 11:48 AM BST
And here was me thinking that he was from Planet Zanussi Grin
Report stewarts rise May 11, 2020 11:51 AM BST
No the biggest political disaster happened when the lunatics on the left of the once great labour party took control and voted in Jeremy Corbyn/McCluskey/Abbott and all and gave the great majority of the population no alternative but to vote for the tory party again.
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 11:51 AM BST
edy
11 May 20 10:44
Joined: 13 Dec 06
| Topic/replies: 227,040 | Blogger: edy's blog
IT doesn't understand the basics of science.

^

A prediction model is just that.

A prediction.

The models being used at the moment for making massive decisions would never be used for things like the insurance industry or even by gamblers. They are just not good enough.
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 11, 2020 11:53 AM BST
The models being used at the moment for making massive decisions would never be used for things like the insurance industry or even by gamblers. They are just not good enough.


What's your evidence for this assertion?
Report edy May 11, 2020 11:54 AM BST
He's guessing.

A study, or studies, that a child can transmit the virus is not really that much of a model.
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 12:05 PM BST
PorcupineorPineapple
11 May 20 10:53
Joined: 03 Dec 15
| Topic/replies: 9,504 | Blogger: PorcupineorPineapple's blog
The models being used at the moment for making massive decisions would never be used for things like the insurance industry or even by gamblers. They are just not good enough.


What's your evidence for this assertion?


^

Look at Ferguson's code. Not withstanding the assumptions he used in his model are wrong.

The random number seeding in the code gave a massive variety in results. Sometimes when run the result is 350k rather than 520k then mess up is something else is going on on the CPU thread. It has so many bugs and errors it simply cannot be trusted.
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 12:06 PM BST
When was it released ?
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 12:07 PM BST
Edy, Angoose and PP are you happy that massive decisions have been made on the basis of unaudited dodgy computer code in the UK?

Boris even used the 500k number as a marker when announcing policy last night.
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 12:09 PM BST
Angoose
11 May 20 11:06
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 16,266 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
When was it released ?

^

The original was never released.

They have put some out on github that has been reworked a bit.

Some people have managed to find older commits that they did not delete.

https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 12:09 PM BST
You've previously criticised that the fact that the code hadn't been released.
Are you now claiming that it has been released ?

If so, when was it released ?
Report breadnbutter May 11, 2020 12:10 PM BST
Doom mongerers need to take an asperin, have a lie doon, maybe turn TV off till Christmas ish, play some chamber music, eat some nuts, make a bowl of soup,cut the hedge, do a jigsaw, stfu.
Report 1st time poster May 11, 2020 12:12 PM BST
lol INSIDE TRADER

they reckon 3,4,5,6,7 million may have had the virus and you have it on good authority none got it from children,for starters whats a child,if a 16 yr old can pass it on are you saying a 15 yr old cant and if they can ,can a 14 yr old,etc,etc,
absolutely no evidence kids don't pass it on,in the early days they were calling kids superspreader,s
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 12:19 PM BST
Angoose
11 May 20 11:09
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 16,268 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
You've previously criticised that the fact that the code hadn't been released.
Are you now claiming that it has been released ?

If so, when was it released ?

^

Are you talking about the original code or the reworked link that they keep adding to I just posted?
Report edy May 11, 2020 12:20 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 6:07AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


Edy, Angoose and PP are you happy that massive decisions have been made on the basis of unaudited dodgy computer code in the UK?Boris even used the 500k number as a marker when announcing policy last night.


Happier with it than some quacksalver, who is known to be economical with the truth when it doesn't fit his goals, along with being known to understand little about science, telling me otherwise, yes.

Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 12:21 PM BST
1st time poster
11 May 20 11:12
Joined: 25 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 39,501 | Blogger: 1st time poster's blog
lol INSIDE TRADER

they reckon 3,4,5,6,7 million may have had the virus and you have it on good authority none got it from children,for starters whats a child,if a 16 yr old can pass it on are you saying a 15 yr old cant and if they can ,can a 14 yr old,etc,etc,
absolutely no evidence kids don't pass it on,in the early days they were calling kids superspreader,s

^

No. I asking is there any evidence that closing primary schools helps stop the spread.

Simple question to ask given millons of kids are being denied schooling for months.
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 12:24 PM BST
It is interesting people are not even willing to debate any different points of view as far as this Covid thing goes.

They blindly believe whatever they are told by the 'scientist' that happens to be promoted to them and ignore all others.
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 11, 2020 12:24 PM BST
Jesus, self-awareness much?
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 11, 2020 12:25 PM BST
IT, what's your evidence* that children can't transmit the disease?


*evidence, not one particular study.
Report edy May 11, 2020 12:30 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 6:24AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


It is interesting people are not even willing to debate any different points of view as far as this Covid thing goes.They blindly believe whatever they are told by the 'scientist' that happens to be promoted to them and ignore all others.


...which is what you are doing... (and have done with other things in the past)

Look, you have been shown that there are studies that children are potentially transmissive, that they emit viruses from their respiratory tract even if they showing mild to no symptoms (the same is true for asymptomatic adults)

That is then where your start thinking, where you use your knowledge on how children behave. Children tend to keep closer distance to each other than a responsible adult would. They are also less likely to keep hygienic standards high at all times.

If you emit viruses for a particular illness, if you keep closer contact, if you don't abide to hygiene as strictly, then it will help the spread.

Not magic, no no, simple logics.

Report The Knight May 11, 2020 12:33 PM BST
stewartsrise

Absolutely bang on.

The last election was a scandal.

The sensible majority were left with a Hobson's choice.

Corbyn and his mad, outdated ideas or BJ and his right wing pals.

I have always voted Tory but would have gladly voted Labour last time had they not been led by a man whose ideas were mostly mad and unworkable - and it wasn't a media campaign that made me think that. It was a careful read of his manifesto which was a lunatic document with promises for almost everyone but no ideas how to pay for them.

Hence, I voted Tory again but with considerable misgivings. In other words, I voted for the 'least worst'. Politics should NEVER have gotten like this.

The general public deserved better than they were offered and I just hope that Kier Starmer identifies how many usual Tory voters like me are so unhappy with BJ and his ultra right wing agenda.

If Starmer takes the middle ground our politics so badly need we might have a decent opposition. If not, god only knows where we will end up, unless BJ blows Brexit and then the North will flock back to Labour whatever.

The next few years do not look promising for the UK.
Report edy May 11, 2020 12:38 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 6:05AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


PorcupineorPineapple11 May 20 10:53Joined: 03 Dec 15| Topic/replies: 9,504 | Blogger: PorcupineorPineapple's blogThe models being used at the moment for making massive decisions would never be used for things like the insurance industry or even by gamblers. They are just not good enough.What's your evidence for this assertion?^Look at Ferguson's code. Not withstanding the assumptions he used in his model are wrong.The random number seeding in the code gave a massive variety in results. Sometimes when run the result is 350k rather than 520k then mess up is something else is going on on the CPU thread. It has so many bugs and errors it simply cannot be trusted.


If I run the CovidSim with the same input parameters it will come back with vastly different results each time?

Report nineteen points May 11, 2020 12:39 PM BST
very good point
Report AFTERTHOUGHT May 11, 2020 12:39 PM BST
The Home Office confirms 17 people who are believed to be from Iraq were brought to Dover this morning after being picked up in the Channel by the Border Force. It brings the number who have attempted the crossing to 321 over the Bank Holiday weekend.

It's incredible, they sailed in a dinghy all the way past Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Yemen, through the Suez Canal, past Egypt, Turkey, Greece, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal. No-one saw them till they were 3 miles off Folkestone.

How lucky was that?
Report nineteen points May 11, 2020 12:40 PM BST
the knight
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 11, 2020 12:41 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 6:39AM, AFTERTHOUGHT wrote:


The Home Office confirms 17 people who are believed to be from Iraq were brought to Dover this morning after being picked up in the Channel by the Border Force. It brings the number who have attempted the crossing to 321 over the Bank Holiday weekend.It's incredible, they sailed in a dinghy all the way past Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Yemen, through the Suez Canal, past Egypt, Turkey, Greece, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal. No-one saw them till they were 3 miles off Folkestone.How lucky was that?


Sorry bud, this isn't the thread for wetting yourself about foreigners.

Report politicspunter May 11, 2020 12:51 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 6:33AM, The Knight wrote:


stewartsriseAbsolutely bang on.The last election was a scandal.The sensible majority were left with a Hobson's choice.Corbyn and his mad, outdated ideas or BJ and his right wing pals.I have always voted Tory but would have gladly voted Labour last time had they not been led by a man whose ideas were mostly mad and unworkable - and it wasn't a media campaign that made me think that. It was a careful read of his manifesto which was a lunatic document with promises for almost everyone but no ideas how to pay for them.Hence, I voted Tory again but with considerable misgivings. In other words, I voted for the 'least worst'. Politics should NEVER have gotten like this. The general public deserved better than they were offered and I just hope that Kier Starmer identifies how many usual Tory voters like me are so unhappy with BJ and his ultra right wing agenda.If Starmer takes the middle ground our politics so badly need we might have a decent opposition. If not, god only knows where we will end up, unless BJ blows Brexit and then the North will flock back to Labour whatever.The next few years do not look promising for the UK.


Yes, good points.

Report politicspunter May 11, 2020 12:52 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 6:39AM, AFTERTHOUGHT wrote:


The Home Office confirms 17 people who are believed to be from Iraq were brought to Dover this morning after being picked up in the Channel by the Border Force. It brings the number who have attempted the crossing to 321 over the Bank Holiday weekend.It's incredible, they sailed in a dinghy all the way past Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Yemen, through the Suez Canal, past Egypt, Turkey, Greece, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal. No-one saw them till they were 3 miles off Folkestone.How lucky was that?


wrong thread?

Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 12:56 PM BST
edy
11 May 20 11:38
Joined: 13 Dec 06
| Topic/replies: 227,046 | Blogger: edy's blog

    May 11, 2020 -- 11:05AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


    PorcupineorPineapple11 May 20 10:53Joined: 03 Dec 15| Topic/replies: 9,504 | Blogger: PorcupineorPineapple's blogThe models being used at the moment for making massive decisions would never be used for things like the insurance industry or even by gamblers. They are just not good enough.What's your evidence for this assertion?^Look at Ferguson's code. Not withstanding the assumptions he used in his model are wrong.The random number seeding in the code gave a massive variety in results. Sometimes when run the result is 350k rather than 520k then mess up is something else is going on on the CPU thread. It has so many bugs and errors it simply cannot be trusted.


If I run the CovidSim with the same input parameters it will come back with vastly different results each time?

^

Correct.
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 1:07 PM BST
In short the code is riddled with bugs.

Not seen a single positive thing written about it by anyone in the software/modelling sector.

Same extracts from reddit...

https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/gesrvr/code_review_of_fergusons_model/

.....

'I’ll illustrate with a few bugs. In issue 116 a UK “red team” at Edinburgh University reports that they tried to use a mode that stores data tables in a more efficient format for faster loading, and discovered – to their surprise – that the resulting predictions varied by around 80,000 deaths after 80 days:

    That mode doesn’t change anything about the world being simulated, so this was obviously a bug.

    The Imperial team’s response is that it doesn’t matter: they are “aware of some small non-determinisms”, but “this has historically been considered acceptable because of the general stochastic nature of the model”. Note the phrasing here: Imperial know their code has such bugs, but act as if it’s some inherent randomness of the universe, rather than a result of amateur coding. Apparently, in epidemiology, a difference of 80,000 deaths is “a small non-determinism”.'


Please join me in prayer that the UK government, having not had the stones to avoid lockdowns in the first place, will at least have the brains to see this as an opportunity to back out of their lose-lose policy using Ferguson as a scapegoat. There isn't going to be a better opportunity than this.

Software test engineer here. Wow. That is your basic, bare minimum smoke test. Not even a single unit test in sight. Not all that surprised though, given how often testing takes a back seat in software development. Now I'm not familiar with writing tests in Python, but this seems poorly structured and difficult to read (given the way the source code also looks, makes sense). Could they at least have used a test framework to give some semblance of organization here?

I say this without hyperbole: this is without a doubt the worst code I have EVER seen in my ENTIRE life. I wanted to vomit when I saw it. I write programs that are in no way critical to health or infrastructure, and I would be IMMEDIATELY FIRED if I wrote code that was even a fraction as bad as this. I wrote better code in fking college getting my computer science degree. Fire these people. Fire all of them.

Software Engineer of ~15 years. If this code came across my desk for review, I wouldn't even bother to try to figure out what it does. I would immediately send it back to the dev and recommend that he be fired. This code is unreadable garbage.

But this is supremely bad with the level of detail that they seem to be including with no rational structure. I'd fail a student that produced this.

Even the braniacs at Microsoft couldn't sanitise this heap of steaming s. They'd been working on cleaning it up for over a month:

The latest commit "Squash history for public release" is telling, no one wanted their name associated with this pile of garbage. If someone on my team submitted this for review, it would be kicked back immediately. No test, crazy variable names (e.g. is P a person or place or ?), huge methods, violates many SOLID principles of OOP, etc.

tl;dr; it is junk - Original author of the code review is spot on.


In a stochastic simulation, let's say you want to test what changing the proportion of susceptible individuals does. So you change it, and rerun the model, but it gives you a higher peak infection rate than the with a lower number of immune individuals. We know this is wrong, it could be something wrong in the model, or it could be that the particular random seed that was chosen, gave you all the 'worst' random numbers for the 2nd run compared to the first one. You need to isolate the random stochastic noise from the changes to the model. So what you do is you run it with the same pseudo-random seed number, then you know that the randomness is not causing differences between runs and can isolate what individual variables are doing based on that single run. Once you've done this and unit tested all the paramaterisations, you could then run the model with say, a million different random seeds, and take the 95th percentile or the median or whatever you want from those million random runs. That is the basis of all stochastic modelling. What you don't have, is a model that gives a different output with the SAME random seed, because that is just nonsense and indicates a massive bug, not only that, how can you isolate and test individual parameters to perform sensitivity analysis in that environment? You can't.

Not seen one positive comment anywhere on the web about the code and model that Boris used as his frame of reference last night.
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:08 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 6:56AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


edy11 May 20 11:38Joined: 13 Dec 06| Topic/replies: 227,046 | Blogger: edy's blog    May 11, 2020 -- 11:05AM, InsiderTrader wrote:    PorcupineorPineapple11 May 20 10:53Joined: 03 Dec 15| Topic/replies: 9,504 | Blogger: PorcupineorPineapple's blogThe models being used at the moment for making massive decisions would never be used for things like the insurance industry or even by gamblers. They are just not good enough.What's your evidence for this assertion?^Look at Ferguson's code. Not withstanding the assumptions he used in his model are wrong.The random number seeding in the code gave a massive variety in results. Sometimes when run the result is 350k rather than 520k then mess up is something else is going on on the CPU thread. It has so many bugs and errors it simply cannot be trusted.If I run the CovidSim with the same input parameters it will come back with vastly different results each time?^Correct.


How do you know?

Report Angoose May 11, 2020 1:09 PM BST
Because he read it on the internet Crazy
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:10 PM BST
Won't he have analysed it himself with his vast knowledge in computer science and interest in the subject?
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:14 PM BST
I'm not doubting it's bad code btw.

I do think however that IT is concentrating too much on the model over some potential inaccuracies. Other countries have done their own, independent, models.

He is also charging too much at Ferguson when it was the Tories that went far and beyond the recommendations of his model.
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 1:14 PM BST
edy
11 May 20 12:08
Joined: 13 Dec 06
| Topic/replies: 227,054 | Blogger: edy's blog

    May 11, 2020 -- 11:56AM, InsiderTrader wrote:


    edy11 May 20 11:38Joined: 13 Dec 06| Topic/replies: 227,046 | Blogger: edy's blog    May 11, 2020 -- 11:05AM, InsiderTrader wrote:    PorcupineorPineapple11 May 20 10:53Joined: 03 Dec 15| Topic/replies: 9,504 | Blogger: PorcupineorPineapple's blogThe models being used at the moment for making massive decisions would never be used for things like the insurance industry or even by gamblers. They are just not good enough.What's your evidence for this assertion?^Look at Ferguson's code. Not withstanding the assumptions he used in his model are wrong.The random number seeding in the code gave a massive variety in results. Sometimes when run the result is 350k rather than 520k then mess up is something else is going on on the CPU thread. It has so many bugs and errors it simply cannot be trusted.If I run the CovidSim with the same input parameters it will come back with vastly different results each time?^Correct.


How do you know?

^

Because the 'model' is based on multiple random number seeds.

Anyone found a positive review of his model/code?
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 1:16 PM BST
edy
11 May 20 12:14
Joined: 13 Dec 06
| Topic/replies: 227,055 | Blogger: edy's blog
I'm not doubting it's bad code btw.

I do think however that IT is concentrating too much on the model over some potential inaccuracies. Other countries have done their own, independent, models.

He is also charging too much at Ferguson when it was the Tories that went far and beyond the recommendations of his model.

^

Any links to other influential models/code?
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:22 PM BST
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Modellierung_Deutschland.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

.
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 1:23 PM BST
Ferguson's headline figure of 510k is massively misrepresented.

It was an estimate of deaths if nothing was done what so ever.
No case isolation, no voluntary home quarantine, no social distancing, no closure of schools and universities.

Is that a realistic scenario?

UK society would have continued as if nothing had happened, you would read about thousands of new cases, hundreds of deaths.
Yet society would continue, stiff upper lip, business as usual.

We have evidence that society wouldn't have carried on in this manner, actions were already being taken before the government intervened.
Sporting events were being cancelled despite the governments advice that there was no requirement for this to happen.

As such, you need to look at the other estimates contained within the report.

In scenario 1, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 85-98k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing

In scenario 2, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 12-53k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, and social distancing

In scenario 3, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 9-39k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing

Viewing the report through this lens provides a significantly more balanced approach than you arrive at if you consider the 510k figure as being the inevitable result once the virus had arrived in the UK.

Now, does this mean that I  am a raging fan of the report produced by Ferguson and his team?
No, it does not.

It does, however, demonstrate that I am prepared to go behind the headlines and spend some time to actually read the report that created the headline.
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:25 PM BST
a very quick look from anyone at the study they keep talking about would've revealed that the authors themselves described the worst case number as highly unrealistic.
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:26 PM BST
Regarding the Imperial College study
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 1:26 PM BST
Suddenly, the estimates produced don't appear to be so out of whack after all, do they.
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:27 PM BST
I pointed it out in another thread the other day, but for some weird reason it was ignored and some people continued to pretend that the Imperial College predicted it was likely that 500k would've died without a lockdown.
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 1:28 PM BST
I wonder why that might do that Confused
Report aaronh May 11, 2020 1:32 PM BST
surely IT hasn't been lying again
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:34 PM BST
Just blindly believed what his masters told him imo. No bad faith behind it.
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:35 PM BST
Without him being willing to do his own research or consider the points of others though.
Report aaronh May 11, 2020 1:36 PM BST
Sad
Report aaronh May 11, 2020 1:37 PM BST
you expected that from hard leftists on this forum but a proud traditional conservative, you expect better
Report 1st time poster May 11, 2020 1:39 PM BST
I posted last night ,those who didnt want a lockdown use the stats achieved through the lockdown as their arghument for not having it,not the stats we may have got without it.
to quote the well trodden Brexit phrase having their cake and eating it, Laugh
Report edy May 11, 2020 1:41 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 7:37AM, aaronh wrote:


you expected that from hard leftists on this forum but a proud traditional conservative, you expect better


He's not a proud traditional conservative. He's rather flexible depending on what his masters are promoting at any given time. There was a time at which he wondered if National Socialism, unlike the bad international socialism, would be the answer for the UK.

Report aaronh May 11, 2020 1:45 PM BST
Sad
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 1:59 PM BST
aaronh
11 May 20 12:32
Joined: 18 Sep 09
| Topic/replies: 272,474 | Blogger: aaronh's blog
surely IT hasn't been lying again

^

Where?
Report InsiderTrader May 11, 2020 2:00 PM BST
Angoose
11 May 20 12:23
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 16,275 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
Ferguson's headline figure of 510k is massively misrepresented.

It was an estimate of deaths if nothing was done what so ever.
No case isolation, no voluntary home quarantine, no social distancing, no closure of schools and universities.

Is that a realistic scenario?

UK society would have continued as if nothing had happened, you would read about thousands of new cases, hundreds of deaths.
Yet society would continue, stiff upper lip, business as usual.

We have evidence that society wouldn't have carried on in this manner, actions were already being taken before the government intervened.
Sporting events were being cancelled despite the governments advice that there was no requirement for this to happen.

As such, you need to look at the other estimates contained within the report.

In scenario 1, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 85-98k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing

In scenario 2, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 12-53k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, and social distancing

In scenario 3, an estimate of deaths was provided in a range of 9-39k.
This scenario was dependant on the introduction of three key measures i.e. closure of schools and universities, case isolation, voluntary home quarantine, and social distancing

Viewing the report through this lens provides a significantly more balanced approach than you arrive at if you consider the 510k figure as being the inevitable result once the virus had arrived in the UK.

Now, does this mean that I  am a raging fan of the report produced by Ferguson and his team?
No, it does not.


It does, however, demonstrate that I am prepared to go behind the headlines and spend some time to actually read the report that created the headline.

^

What do you dislike about the Ferguson report?
Report edy May 11, 2020 2:02 PM BST
(I don't think Angoose is the real author of that piece of text)
Report DenzilPenberthy May 11, 2020 2:02 PM BST
edolf and aaron giving it the high and mighty with a guy IT who's trying to have a genuine discussion as evidenced by his posts
Yet this is the sort of thing YOU TWO post

edy • May 9, 2020 9:26 PM BST
Funny you would say that. I did dream of your soft, but masculine, hands rubbing oil, lavender scented, all over my naked body before you gently went on to spoil me further by massaging my penis with your very skilled tongue and mouth.

aaronh • May 9, 2020 9:38 PM BST
LoveLoveLoveLove

Are you two paid to post on here? Your reactions lack judgement and common sense it's as if you're being paid to silence opposing views whilst embarrassing yourselves as bait.
Report aaronh May 11, 2020 2:03 PM BST
Denzil, you're the one who has just spent his time being a raging reactionary and posting conspiracy nonsense since you came back
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 11, 2020 2:05 PM BST
Denzil - is there something you're trying to get off your chest. All friends here mate. No judgments.
Report edy May 11, 2020 2:05 PM BST
Denzil posting an unrelated hissy fit in a thread in his homophobic obsession towards an anonymous heterosexual male on an internet forum.

Imagine my shock!
Report aaronh May 11, 2020 2:09 PM BST
wonder if Denzil has those 2 posts copy pasted in a document or just keeps going back to that thread to find it
Report edy May 11, 2020 2:10 PM BST
I think it is rather disingenuous of you to make it sound like I posted that towards IT when he was trying to have a genuine discussion.

I posted that mildly romantic piece of text in an entirely different thread when my fake catholic, homophobic stalker was yet again harrassing me over another innocent comment from yet another thread.
Report aaronh May 11, 2020 2:16 PM BST
Denzil derailed another thread, I simply just made an immature jibe that would have been ignored and discussion would have carried on thereafter Happy
Report Whisperingdeath May 11, 2020 2:18 PM BST
As soon as they said we are following the science we were doomed!

The Government have abdicated their responsibility.

It is a massive political disaster. Dorris will have to clear up a lot of excrement at 3:30

WTF has Cummings been doing? I thought he was the razor sharp puppet maestro!

We are doomed. We are not a laughing stock. It is beyond that.
Report DenzilPenberthy May 11, 2020 2:19 PM BST
I'll take the subsequent posts from edy and aaron as a YES to my question

PorcupineorPineapple


There are boats docking daily on the south coast if you're after a bit on the sideWink
Report aaronh May 11, 2020 2:20 PM BST
yes, but Uncle Bill hasn't paid up in a while Angry
Report politicspunter May 11, 2020 2:21 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 8:19AM, DenzilPenberthy wrote:


I'll take the subsequent posts from edy and aaron as a YES to my questionPorcupineorPineappleThere are boats docking daily on the south coast if you're after a bit on the side


Why don't you go to another forum to discuss your unhealthy obsession rather than derail every other thread on here?

Report casemoney May 11, 2020 2:24 PM BST
"Massive depression coming which will result in hundreds of thousands of deaths!"

yes English now barred from Entering Wales and Scotland Laugh

Absolute Chaos  no one knows what they should be Doing "R" rate will go through the roof


3 weeks Lockdown should have been Extended targeting early June For a Planned and Safe return

to some form of Normality ,their only interest now appears that the NHS not be overwhelmed 

Lets hope they are Right , No doubt another 30,000 deaths is no problem as Long as hospitals

And funeral parlour's can  Cope ....
Report DenzilPenberthy May 11, 2020 2:25 PM BST
politicspunter

Read it back you'll spot where it was 'derailed' and it wasn't a Denzil post
Report PorcupineorPineapple May 11, 2020 2:25 PM BST
Government have been desperate to shed responsibility the moment they learned how many would die if they'd kept to their desired track.

Every question was met with a "based on scientific advice" answer. You may as well have got a gif of Father Jack saying "that would be an ecumenical matter" for all the insight we got. Of course it was bull. The scientific advice in itself was flawed with Cummings and other members of the nudge unit having their say despite no scientific background. Then, when they came to present their findings to COBRA, the PM couldn't be arsed to turn up. Scientific advice has been little more than a convenient shield the last few weeks with a complicit press not willing to go deeper and ask specific questions.

Now, we reach phase two and the transferral of responsibility to the public. The warning signs now include green for go. They have placed deliberate mixed messages that mean no-one's sure what to do. Essentially, they've given themselves plausible deniability, but made breaking enforcement impossible to police and hinted that you can go and do what you like.
Report thegiggilo May 11, 2020 2:27 PM BST
Exactly why just confuse people and just lay out some rules by june oif deaths had lowered ffs,what a complete farce meanwhile tubes packed to the rafters again..
Report casemoney May 11, 2020 2:31 PM BST
A recipe  for Carnage , he needs to do some explaining to-day , we have 3/4 of the UK with less deaths and cases , still in full lockdown , England Most deaths and cases infections still rising
in some parts I.e the north east who they Said was a couple of weeks behind ,now everyone out and about ....

You cannot make it up .........
Report 1st time poster May 11, 2020 2:34 PM BST
this is doris all over nudge,nudge blame the public when it goes belly up

7 weeks ago ,I,m not closing pubs but please don't use them,
Report casemoney May 11, 2020 2:37 PM BST
A new one now "It says the French will be exempt from the UK’s proposed quarantine restrictions."

The Gateway from Europe LaughLaugh So basically the EU are exempt From the proposed

quarantine restrictions , WTF are they quarantining most of the rest of the World bar the States

have F.A cases Plain
Report Injera May 11, 2020 2:39 PM BST
I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn’t practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity.

I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn’t have many cases. They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.
“There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor.

- PROFESSOR MICHAEL LEVITT Nobel Prize winner.
Report politicspunter May 11, 2020 2:40 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 8:25AM, DenzilPenberthy wrote:


politicspunter Read it back you'll spot where it was 'derailed' and it wasn't a Denzil post


Denzil, you do it on virtually every thread, you are unhealthily obsessed.

Report casemoney May 11, 2020 2:40 PM BST
People in England should aim to wear face coverings on public transport and in some shops from Wednesday, the UK government has said.

GET YOUR F@CKING MASKS ON NOW Laugh
Report 1st time poster May 11, 2020 2:41 PM BST
slight problem not a shred of evidence herd immunity excists,but don't let that stop you,crack on with some more shoite,cant wait
Report Angoose May 11, 2020 2:42 PM BST
Face-coverings
As more people return to work, there will be more movement outside people's immediate household. This increased mobility means the Government is now advising that people should aim to wear a face-covering in enclosed spaces where social distancing is not always possible and they come into contact with others that they do not normally meet, for example on public transport or in some shops. Homemade cloth face-coverings can help reduce the risk of transmission in some circumstances. Face-coverings are not intended to help the wearer, but to protect against inadvertent transmission of the disease to others if you have it asymptomatically. 

A face covering is not the same as a facemask such as the surgical masks or respirators used as part of personal protective equipment by healthcare and other workers. These supplies must continue to be reserved for those who need it. Face-coverings should not be used by children under the age of two, or those who may find it difficult to manage them correctly, for example primary age children unassisted, or those with respiratory conditions. It is important to use face-coverings properly and wash your hands before putting them on and taking them off.
Report 1st time poster May 11, 2020 2:44 PM BST
face masks dont work but wear them when on the public transport I don't want you to use

many thanks

DORIS,

LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Injera May 11, 2020 2:45 PM BST
1TP - translation please.

Merely pointing out a different view old boy....these Nobel prize winners can, on occasion, be worth the time of day.
Report casemoney May 11, 2020 2:46 PM BST
I could have told the C@nts that 2 months back Laugh
Report 1st time poster May 11, 2020 2:47 PM BST
anyone walking in st james park tomorrow please take a cloth,likely to be a blonde buffoon spilling coffee everywhere ,whilst drying to drink it wearing a face mask, Laugh
Report casemoney May 11, 2020 2:48 PM BST
66 million masks required  , never mind the PPE Laugh
Report Injera May 11, 2020 2:50 PM BST
Do we receive a mask upon purchase of our ticket? I presume a return ticket garners 2 masks..
Report elisjohn May 11, 2020 2:51 PM BST
so now I live in wales, the lovely beaches are approx. 30 mins away,or I,ll go up snowdon for a trek  , oh I cant but the place is full of english tourist , that's ok, so I,ll go for the day down to the nearest beach in England lets say blackpool, but again im not allowed.
actually I don't mind the welsh decision, its that doris and co that are messing everyone up
Report politicspunter May 11, 2020 2:52 PM BST

May 11, 2020 -- 8:50AM, Injera wrote:


Do we receive a mask upon purchase of our ticket? I presume a return ticket garners 2 masks..


Naw, you turn the mask round and use the other side.

Report 1st time poster May 11, 2020 3:10 PM BST
the gusset of your misses leopard print thong will do nicely,conversation topic on the tube,did he,has she, LaughLaugh
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