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Imperial College forecast of Sweden deaths without a lockdown
Imperial College forecast of Sweden deaths without a lockdown
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Replies: 64
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Choose austerity
Choose ignorance Choose clowns |
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Ignorant of what ?
I don't 'support the Government', I don't think they know what they are doing tbh, nor do Governments in other nations. I just don't blame any of them for the death numbers. It increasingly seems this disease was seeded here before it even had a name, and it just runs it's course regardless, perhaps being slowed down by lockdown measures, but everywhere eventually ending up with the numbers they would have gotten without a lockdown. |
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So it spreads by magic?
Every country showing uniform outcome with only variation for ethnicity, age, underlying health conditions? |
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I think variation between countries will be to do with where they rank in terms various factors, perhaps the biggest being where they rank in terms of international travel.
Of course if no one with the disease was ever let in to the country then you keep it out. But it increasingly looks like it was established here way before anyone was worried about it. Maybe a lockdown in mid January could have stopped the spread. Once there are enough unknown, asymptomatic cases, then it will just run it's course and counter measures can only slow the spread. That is my reading of the situation anyway. Perhaps temperature will be found to be another factor in the final analysis. I read in March that a Chinese study indicated the virus spreads best in a 'goldilocks zone' and struggles when it is too hot or cold, and that Western European winter was the ideal. I have not heard if that study was confirmed or refuted, but the anticipated devastation of (warmer) 3rd world countries has not materialized yet. |
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Government have to react to what is going in
They cannot be blamed for the virus, that is a fact. But they got lockdown timing badly wrong, and left old folk to die without option of hospital treatnent 2 errors they are guilty of |
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If you are going back that far Tobes the implication would be that there must have been deaths a lot earlier here that weren't attributed to CV?
Perhaps this is why are poor initial testing capacity soon hit the buffers as you say the seeding was a lot earlier. |
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Perhaps on the plus side the percentage infected is now considerably higher than much of the estimates have been.
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* that have been infected overall
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Dave, the document with those figures has been linked already by a couple of people. The scientists that produced it were using the ICL modelling assumptions to come up with those numbers. They reference Ferguson's paper in their index.
It's fair to point out that ICL did not directly say in any paper that Sweden would have 40,000 etc deaths by now. So I'm sorry to give that impression in the opening post. But the ICL model being the basis for the 96,000 prediction seems pretty clear all the same. |
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Hanx, are you aware that the report provided a range of scenarios and a range of outcomes ?
And are you aware of the range of outcomes it provided should a full range of mitigating measures be implemented ? Yup. Are you aware experts such as John Ioannidis, (Professor in disease prevention at Stanford University), has said that: ‘The Imperial College modelling (shows) some of the major assumptions and estimates that are built in the calculations seem to be substantially inflated.’ Furthermore I cannot find any evidence for peer-review of this work .....and that's before you get onto the fact that IC's model of the Covid-19 disease is based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code, that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than coronavirus. |
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^^As pointed out by IT, you and they don't know the precise details of ICL's model.
Incidentally as I have stated elsewhere the most important metric is hospitalization not specifically deaths as the strain on health resources of the additional burden has a huge impact on society. |
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No strain on the health service except in small localised areas.
Most people I have spoken who work in hospitals are extremely quiet. We have mothballed the Excel centre as not enough patients. Italy was overrun at points in local areas and everyone said it was awful. Reality is we have as many deaths and we never overrun. |
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Because we did not admit old folk to hospitals
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Left to die in care homes
And you seem to have pride in that |
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No pride at all.
The initial policy of shielding the vulnerable and elderly and everyone else have good hygiene and social distance would have allowed for the minds to be focused on that one task. Instead the government and health and social care secretary, in particular, got distracted building and opening his shinny new hospital to show off how fast he could do it. |
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Italy have about the same number of hospitals, same number of cases, same number of deaths, it hit at the same time more or less
How were they overrun and we weren't? |
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They were not shielded
My uncles care home locked down weeks before government advice Other care homes around here reporting terrible death numbers No lockdown... No hospital treatment But hospitals never overflowed...  |
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They had a very high concentration in heavily polluted areas in the North.
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We had a very high concentration in heavily polluted area called London
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The old in these care homes have been allowed to die that much was obvious from day 1
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----you-have-to-laugh---
05 May 20 15:52 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,732 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog They were not shielded My uncles care home locked down weeks before government advice Other care homes around here reporting terrible death numbers No lockdown... No hospital treatment But hospitals never overflowed... ^ I agree they should have been shielded. Think lockdown is costing $3.5bn a day. With that we could have paid to have all carers/cleaners etc on site or in hotels and tested. They should never have had so many people in and out. Every country messed this up. Half deaths in care homes in Europe. Instead of lockdown if we had focused on these deaths would have been far fewer. |
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dunno, maybe it was to pad the numbers quickly, but it still contradicts everything they've done because out of the deaths 95+% of them have been elderly
They can't even hide that anymore so they just don't mention it |
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I think its becoming more and more obvious this was to hide the economic collapse and the birth of their brave new world
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Think lockdown is costing $3.5bn a day
The means of production are still there and lost production can be made up. The problem is the debt that businesses and individuals have built up and the associated payments. |