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By May 1st - 40,000 
By July 1st - 96,000 
Also predicted Sweden's ICU would be oversubscribed by X40
As of May 4th Sweden death toll is 2,769 with perhaps another 200 to add when they get the figures correct for last few days. Sweden's ICU usage has never reached capacity.
By July 1st - 96,000
Also predicted Sweden's ICU would be oversubscribed by X40
As of May 4th Sweden death toll is 2,769 with perhaps another 200 to add when they get the figures correct for last few days. Sweden's ICU usage has never reached capacity.
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Don't know what Neil Ferguson will be doing when this is all over but surely his days modelling pandemics are done.
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back to modelling train sets
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2005 " Up to 200 million could be killed from bird flu."
Total deaths: 282 2009 Swine Flu , "A reasonable worst case scenario would be 65,000 deaths in the UK." Total deaths: 457 2001 Foot and mouth , Modelling lead to the culling of 6,000,000 cattle , pigs and sheep . Cost to the UK economy: £10 billion 2002 "Between 50 and 50,000 would likely die from BSE . Total deaths: 177 And that is The man we are listening to ? |
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tobermory- do you have a link please?
Why isn’t the MSM talking about this? |
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its bad enough that he has the face to keep coming back after being so wrong but even worse they still listen to him.
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Was it no lock down or doing nothing he got the 96,000 deaths?
They have take basic social distancing methods. Clearly his model forecasts were wrong again and policy formed off it cost billions a day. Boris, Trump and others were spooked by his forecasts. Also Sweden has no problems of second waves or working out how to come out of lockdown. Listen to how he laughs at Sweden's approach on this interview last week... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8 Interview with the Swedish guy who claims all countries will end up with similar results in a year or two.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY |
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Independent Sage set up by ex Government adviser David King
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqqwC56XTP8F9zeEUCOttPQ/videos |
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Ferguson did not model Sweden.
They have not released the original code or inputs so hard to actually remodel it for Sweden. This is the paper that tried to use Ferguson methods https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf This is an article that talks about it: https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/ The Uppsala team’s presentation appears to closely follow the ICL approach. They presented a projection for an “unmitigated” response (also known as the “do nothing” scenario in the ICL paper), then modeled the predicted effects of a variety of policy interventions. These included staying the course on the government’s alternative approach of remaining open with milder social distancing guidelines, as well as implementing varying degrees of a lockdown. The model stressed its own urgency as well. Sweden would have to adopt a lockdown policy similar to the rest of Europe immediately if it wished to avert catastrophe. As the authors explained, under “conservative” estimates using their model “the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000 (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000)” being realized by the end of June. Their proposed mitigation scenarios, which followed lockdown strategies similar to those recommended in the ICL paper and adopted elsewhere in Europe, were “predicted to reduce mortality by approximately three-fold” while also averting a catastrophic failure of the Swedish healthcare system. The authors of the paper expressed sincere concerns for limiting the damage done by a genuinely horrendous disease, and they released their study in the hope that it would better inform the policy response. Its predictions have already failed to play out though – and badly failed at that. |
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Resentment of Sweden by the Worlds lockdown fanatics is growing by the day.
‘Never has so much harm been wished on so few by so many’ |
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^^thanks IT, at least you are learning to ask for the source of the forum's dimwits' claims. No doubt tobermory will be along to apologise for posting nonsense.
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https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/
is this the link? |
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That is a link to a website article which is a commentary.
This is the link to the research.... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1.full.pdf |
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We have over 50,000 deaths in uk because we locked down too late
Everything else is just tory spin including traitor threads like this one trying to hide the mess these tories had made. |
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Did Sweden lock down too late?
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Thanks Darren. From your link:
As the authors explained, under “conservative” estimates using their model “the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000 (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000)” being realized by the end of June. |
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As above
Everything else is tory spin |
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And more:
The Swedish model laid out its predicted death and hospitalization rates for competing policy scenarios in a series of graphs. According to their projections (shown below in blue), the current Swedish government’s response – if permitted to continue – would pass 40,000 deaths shortly after May 1, 2020 and continue to rise to almost 100,000 deaths by June. Risable.. |
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Cheers IT. I see now you posted it too.
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The more you look into it, the more Ferguson and Imperial College come across as a bunch of over-estimating guessers
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Were the Swedish model backers (NOW) on the forum on board when we were going down our path?
Good to see Vallance finally hinting that early testing wasn't good enough and that our lockdown may well have been better earlier. The dithering from around 9th march by which time community testing was not deemed feasible to march 23rd lockdown has always given me a problem. Boris was quoted as saying we were fully geared up for a pandemic and our testing capability was excellent. |
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Insider Trader when did you jump aboard and get behind the Swedish experiment. This was seen by many of the countries own scientists as a poorly conceived course of action not strict enough. Very few other countries were considering it.
Great to look back now and say it was a no brainer. |
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I wasn't posting back in march so I thought I'd have a look back around and just before our lockdown to see what people were saying on here.
I didn't see too many saying we had it wrong in fact Insider Trader I saw you post that USA needed a 'Boris style lockdown' to regain control or they'd have a big problem and that Spain and Italy were being too lax with who they were allowing out to work? Is this fair? No problem with someone changing their view, in fact in such a situation with so much unknown this is what many will be doing. The problem would be when subsequent knowledge is presented as a previous path being a no brainer after initially not saying it. |
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Iniitally I trusted the government back by the scientists.
I would have to look back to exactly when I started see the errors with Ferguson and his history and see what was happening in Sweden. The point is people like Boris, Trump and our scientists are so welded to their lockdown policy due to this paper it would be very hard for them to back track now. Their reputations almost depend on Sweden having a bad time. |
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No problem with that Insider Trader.
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Is it possible that your starting point impacts the measures that you will require to apply ?
Can you directly compare London, New York, Stockholm, Port Harcourt ? |
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Sweden has had a bad time compared to its neighbours
UK are worst in Europe by some way Trading off some half baked idea against some info taken out of context to make a spurious point will not bring back 20k plus UK citizens killed by tory dithering |
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Angoose
I thought initially the starting point was the be all and end all and why it was probably a must for us to be so strict. I definitely still think that our poor early testing ability/capacity put us on the backfoot that other countries did not experience in the same way. Also the 2 week period from myself not being able to get a test in the community on 9th march to lockdown (albeit some recommendations given out week earlier) may have been a dithering wasted opportunity to lockdown sooner. I'm not sure now though that we actually needed these extensive measures and some of Insider Traders sources posted have suggested possibly that social distancing measures may have been enough with proper shielding of the vulnerable (which blatantly has proven to be very difficult!). So yes I think we couldn't or didn't act in the best way initially but I'm not convinced the economy needed such a shutdown. This is hindsight though. |
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Trump and Bojo gambled early on that the virus was essentially "just bad Flu"..the herd mentality is an accepted response.. if they were correct their economies would have gained a big advantage over other countries who chose the lockdown approach.
As it turns out their gamble has been a gigantic FAIL..ffs how long did the Italians tell us to wise the f up?..We knew better.  |
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Imperial College said Sweden's R rate would be 3 to 4 with only social distancing measures.Every infected person passing it on to 3 or 4 others. Using their model this would give 96,000 dead by July. Sweden's R rate is apparently 0.85 as of last week.
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Imperial College said Sweden's R rate would be 3 to 4 with only social distancing measures.
link please |
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also link to IC saying everything in your OP
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https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf
Scroll down to 7/35 and there is a table showing every nation's R rate falling to below 1 in their model, except Sweden. The estimated reproduction number for Sweden is higher, not because the mortality trends are significantly different from any other country, but as an artefact of our model, which assumes a smaller reduction in Rt because no full lockdown has been ordered so far. |
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It's sad that you choose to remain ignorant
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