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03 May 20
15:27
Joined:
Date Joined:
25 Aug 05
Sweden has no been praised by WHO as the way to manage Covid with no lock down.
The data was misinterpreted from the start. The growth of the virus was never exponential as some tried to claim
The feedback loop of scaremongering by academics, the media, the public and government led to poor policy.
The growing evidence is that the UK, USA and other European overeacted to the Imperial Paper that suggested 500,000 deaths with no mitgation.
It is now being suggested that the Imperial Paper all this was based on is going to be retracted before peer review and will never be published. The computer code it was based on is still not published as promised.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl-sZdfLcEk
The problem we have now in the UK is coronaphobia.
The data was misinterpreted from the start. The growth of the virus was never exponential as some tried to claim
The feedback loop of scaremongering by academics, the media, the public and government led to poor policy.
The growing evidence is that the UK, USA and other European overeacted to the Imperial Paper that suggested 500,000 deaths with no mitgation.
It is now being suggested that the Imperial Paper all this was based on is going to be retracted before peer review and will never be published. The computer code it was based on is still not published as promised.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl-sZdfLcEk
The problem we have now in the UK is coronaphobia.
Show More
Of course, there is no way in which such a claim can be proven or disproven.
IT i agree entirely about your last sentence.they are backing themselves into a corner now and saving face is going to cost us our liberty
If you thought it is "coronaphobia" you won't be shielding surely?
Interesting point laspy.
I am shielding to protect my high risk wife.
If not for that I would be happy to go back out with sensible social measures.
I am shielding to protect my high risk wife.
If not for that I would be happy to go back out with sensible social measures.
we were up to 900 deaths a day,stil probably 600 today on a sunday count,this under a lockdown,do people seriously believe people would have continued to use public transport,pubs,cafes with well over a 1000 a day dying,we don't need the modellers to tell us what the numbers would look like,we can see for ourselves, airlines would still have been grounded,million,s of jobs lost,we,d still be in roughly the same position .more deaths though a different route
Angoose
03 May 20 14:30
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 15,585 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
Of course, there is no way in which such a claim can be proven or disproven.
I think it can now for sure be put to bed. I suggest that is why the Imperial code has been published as promised.
Lets look specifically at the exponential growth that this virus was supposed to have.....
It has been proved to be nonsense.
Look at the Belarus data where the treatment was to have vodka and football carried on. No lock down whatsoever.
99 deaths from 16705 cases. No exponential growth.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belarus/
03 May 20 14:30
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 15,585 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
Of course, there is no way in which such a claim can be proven or disproven.
I think it can now for sure be put to bed. I suggest that is why the Imperial code has been published as promised.
Lets look specifically at the exponential growth that this virus was supposed to have.....
It has been proved to be nonsense.
Look at the Belarus data where the treatment was to have vodka and football carried on. No lock down whatsoever.
99 deaths from 16705 cases. No exponential growth.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belarus/
You have Bame,fat fellas,carers for family members, elderly,people with medical conditions,after all them are taken out of the equation are you saying the rest should roll up their sleeves and get the economy going for the good of all those who are in risk groups IT?.
the only figures i think they should be showing us are the amount of deaths daily,weekly or monthly compared to a 5 or 10 year average over the same period.then i think we can judge the scale of the vitus
lapsy pa
03 May 20 14:58
Joined: 29 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 3,683 | Blogger: lapsy pa's blog
You have Bame,fat fellas,carers for family members, elderly,people with medical conditions,after all them are taken out of the equation are you saying the rest should roll up their sleeves and get the economy going for the good of all those who are in risk groups IT?.
^
If people want to leave their homes and go to work, to primary school or meet friends looking the experiences of countries around the world I do not see it as being something that should be stopped by government. It should be up to individuals to decide.
03 May 20 14:58
Joined: 29 Jan 09
| Topic/replies: 3,683 | Blogger: lapsy pa's blog
You have Bame,fat fellas,carers for family members, elderly,people with medical conditions,after all them are taken out of the equation are you saying the rest should roll up their sleeves and get the economy going for the good of all those who are in risk groups IT?.
^
If people want to leave their homes and go to work, to primary school or meet friends looking the experiences of countries around the world I do not see it as being something that should be stopped by government. It should be up to individuals to decide.
tories now admitting the austerity they chose to impose on uk public caused excess deaths
nice to see them finally accept the argument albeit all too late for some and at a point where they
just want to go down the pub.
right wing whack jobs giving the game away
nice to see them finally accept the argument albeit all too late for some and at a point where they
just want to go down the pub.
right wing whack jobs giving the game away
but this
s was never exponential as some tried to claim
is just plain wrong, and as log scale graphs still showed a rise is really easily proven to be a lie from an increasing deranged poster
s was never exponential as some tried to claim
is just plain wrong, and as log scale graphs still showed a rise is really easily proven to be a lie from an increasing deranged poster
if we decided on a carry on plan do people really think with what we now no that the most vulnerable to virus outside the elderly,nhs workers,carers,cleaners,bame public sector workers,drivers,tube drivers, etc,would have just carried on regardless, obviously putting more pressure on those services and more deaths amongst them services,so business could jog on, NAH CHANCE
Fair enough point IT but isn't the whole lockdown supposed to be for the good of all by individual effort?
defeats the point of "lockdown" if some can and others won't comply imo.
defeats the point of "lockdown" if some can and others won't comply imo.
A good place to start would be to see what percentage of the population have had the Corona. What are these 100,000 a day tests testing for?
----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 15:08
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,600 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
but this
s was never exponential as some tried to claim
is just plain wrong, and as log scale graphs still showed a rise is really easily proven to be a lie from an increasing deranged poster
^
Show me a country with exponential growth after the initial phase when in likelihood there were cases people were just not testing.
Pick country from this list where there is exponential growth:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
03 May 20 15:08
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,600 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
but this
s was never exponential as some tried to claim
is just plain wrong, and as log scale graphs still showed a rise is really easily proven to be a lie from an increasing deranged poster
^
Show me a country with exponential growth after the initial phase when in likelihood there were cases people were just not testing.
Pick country from this list where there is exponential growth:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Agree WD,no one can answer how many active cases locally,hence coronaphobia.
Forget Worldometers to a point IT, no tests but plenty of burying.
Forget Worldometers to a point IT, no tests but plenty of burying.
This is great news it must been a hell of a lot more have been infected with the virus than has previously been touted.
if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition ..
^^^^^ obviously when countermeasures are taken the growth slows. A contagious disease in an environment with little or no countermeasures or immunity will always have exponential growth. see us prisons, meat processing plants and care homes.
r is just below 1 because of the lockdown
maffs and english let you down on these rant threads you constantly start
maffs and english let you down on these rant threads you constantly start
A good place to start would be to see what percentage of the population have had the Corona. What are these 100,000 a day tests testing for?
The science seems to suggest that the number is somewhere between 1m and 6m.
Don't forget that some people are being tested over and over again.
The science seems to suggest that the number is somewhere between 1m and 6m.
Don't forget that some people are being tested over and over again.
6k out of 122k tested positive for those showing symptoms according to hancock
i wouldnt bet 1 penny on the accuracy of anything tories tell me being confirmed as the truth
i wouldnt bet 1 penny on the accuracy of anything tories tell me being confirmed as the truth
Whispering death -the 100 000 day tests are to see if at that moment in time the person has corona. There is a different test to see if you have had it -see eg https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-antibody-test-what-is-it-virus-blood-nhs-matt-hancock-covid-19-a9423571.html
If you can sit through 35 minutes https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidem... is interesting.
If you can sit through 35 minutes https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidem... is interesting.
----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 15:26
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition ..
^
Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone.
R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down.
03 May 20 15:26
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition ..
^
Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone.
R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down.
So massively restricting human interactions doesn't reduce infection rates 
Please tell me that you have zero involvement in public health care
Please tell me that you have zero involvement in public health care
It will happen more Angoose.
If no one every was close to anyone else Covid would (probably) not spread.
It might through air and surfaces.
What I am saying is lock down not made the difference people like Ferguson claimed compared to washing hands and social distancing.
He reckoned do it and get 20,000 deaths. Dont do anything and get 500,000 deaths in UK.
Growth rates from places with 'lockdown' or just social distancing do not seem very different.
Also if you lock down totally and do not let it spread at all you will get hit the second wave. Lockdown then build up problems for third wave.
Sweden got this right. We know that now.
Watch the video at the top. Might help you understand what is going on.
If no one every was close to anyone else Covid would (probably) not spread.
It might through air and surfaces.
What I am saying is lock down not made the difference people like Ferguson claimed compared to washing hands and social distancing.
He reckoned do it and get 20,000 deaths. Dont do anything and get 500,000 deaths in UK.
Growth rates from places with 'lockdown' or just social distancing do not seem very different.
Also if you lock down totally and do not let it spread at all you will get hit the second wave. Lockdown then build up problems for third wave.
Sweden got this right. We know that now.
Watch the video at the top. Might help you understand what is going on.
Are complex models only of value if their predicted outcomes are subsequently matched by actual events ?
If you are dealt a pair of aces whilst playing poker, do you react the same way if you had instead been dealt a 2 and 7 off suit ?
Sweden is interesting
There are plenty of obvious conclusions to be drawn but I would say you don’t get salty peanuts on bars in Stockholm, I’d like to say and that’s a fact!
There are plenty of obvious conclusions to be drawn but I would say you don’t get salty peanuts on bars in Stockholm, I’d like to say and that’s a fact!
Angoose
03 May 20 17:04
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 15,623 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
Are complex models only of value if their predicted outcomes are subsequently matched by actual events ?
^
Of course not.
We all build detailed models for predicting sports/racing etc on here.
But I would not predict horse racing by inputting football results into the model.
The reality is UK, USA etc got spooked by a model that had was not peer reviewed and had 13 year computer code that was written for a flu pandemic.
The code has not been released. The paper had not been peer reviews. There is a suggestion the paper will be pulled.
So, in summary, there is difference between a model giving a wrong result and a model having faulty inputs and assumptions.
03 May 20 17:04
Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 15,623 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
Are complex models only of value if their predicted outcomes are subsequently matched by actual events ?
^
Of course not.
We all build detailed models for predicting sports/racing etc on here.
But I would not predict horse racing by inputting football results into the model.
The reality is UK, USA etc got spooked by a model that had was not peer reviewed and had 13 year computer code that was written for a flu pandemic.
The code has not been released. The paper had not been peer reviews. There is a suggestion the paper will be pulled.
So, in summary, there is difference between a model giving a wrong result and a model having faulty inputs and assumptions.
Perhaps you might get better results with your horse racing predictions if you did input football results 
IT, do you believe that the COVID data released by China is reliable ?
Interesting question.
I think many more people got infected. Many more died. But proportionally many many more got infected than died that were not records for mortality rate is nonsense.
I think *10 or *20 to it but the growth trends of death are as they were been repeated in Iran, Italy and then everywhere else.
I think many more people got infected. Many more died. But proportionally many many more got infected than died that were not records for mortality rate is nonsense.
I think *10 or *20 to it but the growth trends of death are as they were been repeated in Iran, Italy and then everywhere else.
The reason that I ask is that Michael Levitt appears to believe their data and is using it as the foundation of his argument on UnHerd.
He has also stated that Germany had very light lockdown measures.
He used their data in real time to suggest the virus was past its peak in China in Feb.
He then saw same patterns in Iran and Italy.
He used this data to show Ferguson had got it completely wrong in real time (not hindsight).
He has been proved to be correct. Whenever there is an outbreak there is limited exponential growth and it slows after about 4-6 weeks regardless of what rules governments impose on people.
He then saw same patterns in Iran and Italy.
He used this data to show Ferguson had got it completely wrong in real time (not hindsight).
He has been proved to be correct. Whenever there is an outbreak there is limited exponential growth and it slows after about 4-6 weeks regardless of what rules governments impose on people.
And he's now rubbishing Ferguson's model based on his observations of data from China that is widely believed to have been manipulated.
So, tell me how many deaths Ferguson's model predicted if all of the measures were followed.
Britain's R0 was 3+ before locking down. That is proof of exponential growth, yet you claim there was none. Where is your evidence or proof of that?
R0 has plummeted to below one since and because of the lockdown.
Now where is you evidence/proof of how many lives will be lost because of the lockdown? What are the numbers and what are they based on?
Without all of this your thread is nonsense.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
8276983/Britains-R-number-plummeted-lockdown-introduced.html
R0 has plummeted to below one since and because of the lockdown.
Now where is you evidence/proof of how many lives will be lost because of the lockdown? What are the numbers and what are they based on?
Without all of this your thread is nonsense.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
8276983/Britains-R-number-plummeted-lockdown-introduced.html
And he ends with a call for the "youth of today" to demand a slaughter of the baby boomers 
lurka
03 May 20 17:51
Joined: 25 Oct 10
| Topic/replies: 15,408 | Blogger: lurka's blog
Britain's R0 was 3+ before locking down. That is proof of exponential growth,
^
What was growing exponentially from tiny starting point? No of tests?
It takes 3 weeks or more to die of Covid and two weeks after lock down deaths per day started to decrease.
Explain why that started to drop so quickly after lockdown.
03 May 20 17:51
Joined: 25 Oct 10
| Topic/replies: 15,408 | Blogger: lurka's blog
Britain's R0 was 3+ before locking down. That is proof of exponential growth,
^
What was growing exponentially from tiny starting point? No of tests?
It takes 3 weeks or more to die of Covid and two weeks after lock down deaths per day started to decrease.
Explain why that started to drop so quickly after lockdown.
It could be argued it was the handwashing and social distancing suggested the week before plus more people getting the virus that slowed the spread.
Which brings us round to how the virus is actually transmitted, a topic that remains far from certain.
What percentage of people becoming infected from inhaling infected droplets ?
What percentage become infected from touching an infected surface and then subsequently touching their own nose, mouth, or eyes ?
No one is able to tell us with any degree of certainty.
And yes, there are many things that can be argued, the volume of valid data to support these "many things" is a different matter.
What percentage of people becoming infected from inhaling infected droplets ?
What percentage become infected from touching an infected surface and then subsequently touching their own nose, mouth, or eyes ?
No one is able to tell us with any degree of certainty.
And yes, there are many things that can be argued, the volume of valid data to support these "many things" is a different matter.
Angoose I am sure you will agree that the growth of deaths in the UK had stopped before any effect could be attributed to the March 23rd official lockdown.
As a side issue you do know who is an important funder for the Imperial research?
As a side issue you do know who is an important funder for the Imperial research?
----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 15:26
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition ..
^
Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone.
R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down.
Rate reply:
| report block user
no
rate is rate of infection at that time, if r was 2.6 the growth is exponential
cant be any other and regardless of anything else
its a definition of it
03 May 20 15:26
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition ..
^
Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone.
R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down.
Rate reply:
| report block user
no
rate is rate of infection at that time, if r was 2.6 the growth is exponential
cant be any other and regardless of anything else
its a definition of it
I'm not overly concerned with attributions, I'm more concerned with verifiable data.
I have no idea who funds the Imperial research, but I'm sure that you will enlighten me
I have no idea who funds the Imperial research, but I'm sure that you will enlighten me
The same foundation that is funding a lot of vaccine that are being developed to stop the doomsday situation.
Oh c'mon Angoose, you know full well who replaced George Soros as the new irrational boogeyman.
----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 18:32
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,628 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 15:26
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition ..
^
Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone.
R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down.
Rate reply:
| report block user
no
rate is rate of infection at that time, if r was 2.6 the growth is exponential
cant be any other and regardless of anything else
its a definition of it
^
I suppose it depends if you are talking about the raw R rate or the effective reproduction number. Which one are you talking about?
03 May 20 18:32
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,628 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 15:26
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition ..
^
Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone.
R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down.
Rate reply:
| report block user
no
rate is rate of infection at that time, if r was 2.6 the growth is exponential
cant be any other and regardless of anything else
its a definition of it
^
I suppose it depends if you are talking about the raw R rate or the effective reproduction number. Which one are you talking about?
Here is what the report states about funding, but no doubt they are trying to hide the obvious conspiracy from me
Funding
This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and Community Jameel.
Funding
This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and Community Jameel.
You need to get on them right wing whack job sites angoose
I t. parrots them on here, including all the wild assumptions the gullible there fall for.
I t. parrots them on here, including all the wild assumptions the gullible there fall for.
Not sure that I'd be welcome there, I have been known to occasionally read The Guardian
I am talking about r
It's use in briefings and your wild and incorrect claims.
It's use in briefings and your wild and incorrect claims.
You are verging on becoming the new Lord haw haw
R was massaged down to 2.6 by removing thousands of cases from the
Figures.
On other threads you were claiming an infection rate of around 39%
Of the population but now claim r was not exoonential
Have a bit of sense and remember the guff you are posting on here
Figures.
On other threads you were claiming an infection rate of around 39%
Of the population but now claim r was not exoonential
Have a bit of sense and remember the guff you are posting on here
Can't a man be a questioning free thinker without being associated with right wing whack jobs?
YHTL what are are taking about going at an exponential rate?
Deaths? Detected cases? Actual cases? Tests?
Deaths? Detected cases? Actual cases? Tests?
Anybody can be a free thinker edy
They just need to post any old shiote like the rest of us at times to prove it rather than repetition of whack job sites as a staple
They just need to post any old shiote like the rest of us at times to prove it rather than repetition of whack job sites as a staple
R is rate of infection wherby each person infected 2.6 others
Not sure how you can pretend to comprehend this based on your
11k posts
If r>1 then growth is exponential....
Not sure how you can pretend to comprehend this based on your
11k posts
If r>1 then growth is exponential....
So you are referring to all cases regardless as to if they are detected.
In terms of growth depends how fast cases then spread it on..
If the effective R is 2 and they spread it to two people over a year then no problem.
If they spread it in ten minutes you have a major problem.
We have to look at both numbers and not just the 'R'.
In terms of growth depends how fast cases then spread it on..
If the effective R is 2 and they spread it to two people over a year then no problem.
If they spread it in ten minutes you have a major problem.
We have to look at both numbers and not just the 'R'.
It's an actual rate not dependant on arbitrary time periods
It's measured as best as possible not imagined
Hence why growth was exponential and government used log scale graphs to help flatten the curve for those that do not understand
It's measured as best as possible not imagined
Hence why growth was exponential and government used log scale graphs to help flatten the curve for those that do not understand
Angoose....
https://www.vaccineimpact.org/aboutus/
Key funders:
Gavi
the Vaccine Alliance
the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Then for the paper....
The research team reported no competing interests, but theyreported receiving grants from the World Health Organization;Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Janssen Pharmaceuticals; and theBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, for work outside of thisstudy
https://www.vaccineimpact.org/aboutus/
Key funders:
Gavi
the Vaccine Alliance
the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Then for the paper....
The research team reported no competing interests, but theyreported receiving grants from the World Health Organization;Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Janssen Pharmaceuticals; and theBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, for work outside of thisstudy
----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 19:23
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,636 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
It's an actual rate not dependant on arbitrary time periods
It's measured as best as possible not imagined
Hence why growth was exponential and government used log scale graphs to help flatten the curve for those that do not understand
^
Show me a log scale chart for any country....
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
One country will do. How about Sweden where there is no lock down. Or Belarus where they advise having a vodka.
If there really is exponential growth in deaths you would be able to show it.
03 May 20 19:23
Joined: 06 Jul 10
| Topic/replies: 7,636 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog
It's an actual rate not dependant on arbitrary time periods
It's measured as best as possible not imagined
Hence why growth was exponential and government used log scale graphs to help flatten the curve for those that do not understand
^
Show me a log scale chart for any country....
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
One country will do. How about Sweden where there is no lock down. Or Belarus where they advise having a vodka.
If there really is exponential growth in deaths you would be able to show it.
You will see log scale graphs used in daily btiefings by government
Tell me you knew that and are not posting for hours without even basic knowledge outside of whack job land
Tell me you knew that and are not posting for hours without even basic knowledge outside of whack job land
So
Austerity kills folk
Infection rate was exponential
Tories lie
Owt else we have shown on this thread
Austerity kills folk
Infection rate was exponential
Tories lie
Owt else we have shown on this thread
It's funny how easily masses free thinkers are convinced that someone is a super villain.
Lockdown is a joke. We individual can make out own judgement what is best for ourself. I live in a close of 40 properties and everday people were outside talking in groups, eating drinking etc. Yesterday a police car came round casing the area and guess how many were caught?
None.
It was raining
None.
It was raining
There is a definite part of societywho definitely seem to need a proper baddie nowadays. Just a nice cosy black and white argument where they are always the good guys. And there will be some "other" who is always trying to harm them. Chavs, Muslims, the EU, and now the Chinese and erm Bill Gates.
So much easier to deflect people and let them fight these imaginary monsters while the capitalists get busy.
So much easier to deflect people and let them fight these imaginary monsters while the capitalists get busy.
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