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03 May 20
15:27
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25 Aug 05
Sweden has no been praised by WHO as the way to manage Covid with no lock down.
The data was misinterpreted from the start. The growth of the virus was never exponential as some tried to claim
The feedback loop of scaremongering by academics, the media, the public and government led to poor policy.
The growing evidence is that the UK, USA and other European overeacted to the Imperial Paper that suggested 500,000 deaths with no mitgation.
It is now being suggested that the Imperial Paper all this was based on is going to be retracted before peer review and will never be published. The computer code it was based on is still not published as promised.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl-sZdfLcEk
The problem we have now in the UK is coronaphobia.
The data was misinterpreted from the start. The growth of the virus was never exponential as some tried to claim
The feedback loop of scaremongering by academics, the media, the public and government led to poor policy.
The growing evidence is that the UK, USA and other European overeacted to the Imperial Paper that suggested 500,000 deaths with no mitgation.
It is now being suggested that the Imperial Paper all this was based on is going to be retracted before peer review and will never be published. The computer code it was based on is still not published as promised.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl-sZdfLcEk
The problem we have now in the UK is coronaphobia.
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Of course, there is no way in which such a claim can be proven or disproven.
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But it's Sunday afternoon, so let's have a debate
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IT i agree entirely about your last sentence.they are backing themselves into a corner now and saving face is going to cost us our liberty
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If you thought it is "coronaphobia" you won't be shielding surely?
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Interesting point laspy.
I am shielding to protect my high risk wife. If not for that I would be happy to go back out with sensible social measures. |
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we were up to 900 deaths a day,stil probably 600 today on a sunday count,this under a lockdown,do people seriously believe people would have continued to use public transport,pubs,cafes with well over a 1000 a day dying,we don't need the modellers to tell us what the numbers would look like,we can see for ourselves, airlines would still have been grounded,million,s of jobs lost,we,d still be in roughly the same position .more deaths though a different route
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Angoose
03 May 20 14:30 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 15,585 | Blogger: Angoose's blog Of course, there is no way in which such a claim can be proven or disproven. I think it can now for sure be put to bed. I suggest that is why the Imperial code has been published as promised. Lets look specifically at the exponential growth that this virus was supposed to have..... It has been proved to be nonsense. Look at the Belarus data where the treatment was to have vodka and football carried on. No lock down whatsoever. 99 deaths from 16705 cases. No exponential growth. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belarus/ |
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You have Bame,fat fellas,carers for family members, elderly,people with medical conditions,after all them are taken out of the equation are you saying the rest should roll up their sleeves and get the economy going for the good of all those who are in risk groups IT?.
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the only figures i think they should be showing us are the amount of deaths daily,weekly or monthly compared to a 5 or 10 year average over the same period.then i think we can judge the scale of the vitus
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lapsy pa
03 May 20 14:58 Joined: 29 Jan 09 | Topic/replies: 3,683 | Blogger: lapsy pa's blog You have Bame,fat fellas,carers for family members, elderly,people with medical conditions,after all them are taken out of the equation are you saying the rest should roll up their sleeves and get the economy going for the good of all those who are in risk groups IT?. ^ If people want to leave their homes and go to work, to primary school or meet friends looking the experiences of countries around the world I do not see it as being something that should be stopped by government. It should be up to individuals to decide. |
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tories now admitting the austerity they chose to impose on uk public caused excess deaths
nice to see them finally accept the argument albeit all too late for some and at a point where they just want to go down the pub. right wing whack jobs giving the game away |
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but this
s was never exponential as some tried to claim is just plain wrong, and as log scale graphs still showed a rise is really easily proven to be a lie from an increasing deranged poster |
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if we decided on a carry on plan do people really think with what we now no that the most vulnerable to virus outside the elderly,nhs workers,carers,cleaners,bame public sector workers,drivers,tube drivers, etc,would have just carried on regardless, obviously putting more pressure on those services and more deaths amongst them services,so business could jog on, NAH CHANCE
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Fair enough point IT but isn't the whole lockdown supposed to be for the good of all by individual effort?
defeats the point of "lockdown" if some can and others won't comply imo. |
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A good place to start would be to see what percentage of the population have had the Corona. What are these 100,000 a day tests testing for?
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----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 15:08 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,600 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog but this s was never exponential as some tried to claim is just plain wrong, and as log scale graphs still showed a rise is really easily proven to be a lie from an increasing deranged poster ^ Show me a country with exponential growth after the initial phase when in likelihood there were cases people were just not testing. Pick country from this list where there is exponential growth: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ |
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Agree WD,no one can answer how many active cases locally,hence coronaphobia.
Forget Worldometers to a point IT, no tests but plenty of burying. |
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This is great news it must been a hell of a lot more have been infected with the virus than has previously been touted.
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*mean not been
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if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition ..
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^^^^^ obviously when countermeasures are taken the growth slows. A contagious disease in an environment with little or no countermeasures or immunity will always have exponential growth. see us prisons, meat processing plants and care homes.
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r is just below 1 because of the lockdown
maffs and english let you down on these rant threads you constantly start |
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A good place to start would be to see what percentage of the population have had the Corona. What are these 100,000 a day tests testing for?
The science seems to suggest that the number is somewhere between 1m and 6m. Don't forget that some people are being tested over and over again. |
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6k out of 122k tested positive for those showing symptoms according to hancock
i wouldnt bet 1 penny on the accuracy of anything tories tell me being confirmed as the truth |
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Yes but the science apparently is horsesh1t
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Whispering death -the 100 000 day tests are to see if at that moment in time the person has corona. There is a different test to see if you have had it -see eg https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-antibody-test-what-is-it-virus-blood-nhs-matt-hancock-covid-19-a9423571.html
If you can sit through 35 minutes https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/ is interesting. |
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----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 15:26 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition .. ^ Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone. R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down. |
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So massively restricting human interactions doesn't reduce infection rates
 Please tell me that you have zero involvement in public health care  |
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It will happen more Angoose.
If no one every was close to anyone else Covid would (probably) not spread. It might through air and surfaces. What I am saying is lock down not made the difference people like Ferguson claimed compared to washing hands and social distancing. He reckoned do it and get 20,000 deaths. Dont do anything and get 500,000 deaths in UK. Growth rates from places with 'lockdown' or just social distancing do not seem very different. Also if you lock down totally and do not let it spread at all you will get hit the second wave. Lockdown then build up problems for third wave. Sweden got this right. We know that now. Watch the video at the top. Might help you understand what is going on. |
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Are complex models only of value if their predicted outcomes are subsequently matched by actual events ?
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If you are dealt a pair of aces whilst playing poker, do you react the same way if you had instead been dealt a 2 and 7 off suit ?
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Yes!
You keep a poker face! |
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Sweden is interesting
There are plenty of obvious conclusions to be drawn but I would say you don’t get salty peanuts on bars in Stockholm, I’d like to say and that’s a fact! |
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Angoose
03 May 20 17:04 Joined: 18 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 15,623 | Blogger: Angoose's blog Are complex models only of value if their predicted outcomes are subsequently matched by actual events ? ^ Of course not. We all build detailed models for predicting sports/racing etc on here. But I would not predict horse racing by inputting football results into the model. The reality is UK, USA etc got spooked by a model that had was not peer reviewed and had 13 year computer code that was written for a flu pandemic. The code has not been released. The paper had not been peer reviews. There is a suggestion the paper will be pulled. So, in summary, there is difference between a model giving a wrong result and a model having faulty inputs and assumptions. |
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Perhaps you might get better results with your horse racing predictions if you did input football results
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IT, do you believe that the COVID data released by China is reliable ?
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Interesting question.
I think many more people got infected. Many more died. But proportionally many many more got infected than died that were not records for mortality rate is nonsense. I think *10 or *20 to it but the growth trends of death are as they were been repeated in Iran, Italy and then everywhere else. |
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The reason that I ask is that Michael Levitt appears to believe their data and is using it as the foundation of his argument on UnHerd.
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He has also stated that Germany had very light lockdown measures.
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