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Total lock down will cost more lives than it saves
Total lock down will cost more lives than it saves
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He used their data in real time to suggest the virus was past its peak in China in Feb.
He then saw same patterns in Iran and Italy. He used this data to show Ferguson had got it completely wrong in real time (not hindsight). He has been proved to be correct. Whenever there is an outbreak there is limited exponential growth and it slows after about 4-6 weeks regardless of what rules governments impose on people. |
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He's now coming back to the severe flu season argument.
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And he's now rubbishing Ferguson's model based on his observations of data from China that is widely believed to have been manipulated.
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So, tell me how many deaths Ferguson's model predicted if all of the measures were followed.
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Britain's R0 was 3+ before locking down. That is proof of exponential growth, yet you claim there was none. Where is your evidence or proof of that?
R0 has plummeted to below one since and because of the lockdown. Now where is you evidence/proof of how many lives will be lost because of the lockdown? What are the numbers and what are they based on? Without all of this your thread is nonsense. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article- 8276983/Britains-R-number-plummeted-lockdown-introduced.html |
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And he ends with a call for the "youth of today" to demand a slaughter of the baby boomers
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lurka
03 May 20 17:51 Joined: 25 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 15,408 | Blogger: lurka's blog Britain's R0 was 3+ before locking down. That is proof of exponential growth, ^ What was growing exponentially from tiny starting point? No of tests? It takes 3 weeks or more to die of Covid and two weeks after lock down deaths per day started to decrease. Explain why that started to drop so quickly after lockdown. |
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It could be argued it was the handwashing and social distancing suggested the week before plus more people getting the virus that slowed the spread.
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Which brings us round to how the virus is actually transmitted, a topic that remains far from certain.
What percentage of people becoming infected from inhaling infected droplets ? What percentage become infected from touching an infected surface and then subsequently touching their own nose, mouth, or eyes ? No one is able to tell us with any degree of certainty. And yes, there are many things that can be argued, the volume of valid data to support these "many things" is a different matter. |
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Angoose I am sure you will agree that the growth of deaths in the UK had stopped before any effect could be attributed to the March 23rd official lockdown.
As a side issue you do know who is an important funder for the Imperial research? |
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----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 15:26 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition .. ^ Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone. R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down. Rate reply: | report block user no rate is rate of infection at that time, if r was 2.6 the growth is exponential cant be any other and regardless of anything else its a definition of it |
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I'm not overly concerned with attributions, I'm more concerned with verifiable data.
I have no idea who funds the Imperial research, but I'm sure that you will enlighten me  |
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The same foundation that is funding a lot of vaccine that are being developed to stop the doomsday situation.
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Oh c'mon Angoose, you know full well who replaced George Soros as the new irrational boogeyman.
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----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 18:32 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,628 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog ----you-have-to-laugh--- 03 May 20 15:26 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,625 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog if r is above 1 the growth is exponential by definition .. ^ Not it isn't. R is one of many factors that need to be taken into account. For example how long it takes to infect someone. R naturally drops as more people already have it or have had it. Nothing to do with lock down. Rate reply: | report block user no rate is rate of infection at that time, if r was 2.6 the growth is exponential cant be any other and regardless of anything else its a definition of it ^ I suppose it depends if you are talking about the raw R rate or the effective reproduction number. Which one are you talking about? |
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Here is what the report states about funding, but no doubt they are trying to hide the obvious conspiracy from me
 Funding This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and Community Jameel. |
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You need to get on them right wing whack job sites angoose
I t. parrots them on here, including all the wild assumptions the gullible there fall for. |
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Not sure that I'd be welcome there, I have been known to occasionally read The Guardian
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I am talking about r
It's use in briefings and your wild and incorrect claims. |
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You are verging on becoming the new Lord haw haw
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R was massaged down to 2.6 by removing thousands of cases from the
Figures. On other threads you were claiming an infection rate of around 39% Of the population but now claim r was not exoonential Have a bit of sense and remember the guff you are posting on here |
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Can't a man be a questioning free thinker without being associated with right wing whack jobs?
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30%
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YHTL what are are taking about going at an exponential rate?
Deaths? Detected cases? Actual cases? Tests? |
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Perhaps he is referring to Insider Trader's whacko threads
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Anybody can be a free thinker edy
They just need to post any old shiote like the rest of us at times to prove it rather than repetition of whack job sites as a staple |
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R is rate of infection wherby each person infected 2.6 others
Not sure how you can pretend to comprehend this based on your 11k posts If r>1 then growth is exponential.... |
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So you are referring to all cases regardless as to if they are detected.
In terms of growth depends how fast cases then spread it on.. If the effective R is 2 and they spread it to two people over a year then no problem. If they spread it in ten minutes you have a major problem. We have to look at both numbers and not just the 'R'. |
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Thanks to your good friend Prof Levitt
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It's an actual rate not dependant on arbitrary time periods
It's measured as best as possible not imagined Hence why growth was exponential and government used log scale graphs to help flatten the curve for those that do not understand |
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Angoose....
https://www.vaccineimpact.org/aboutus/ Key funders: Gavi the Vaccine Alliance the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Then for the paper.... The research team reported no competing interests, but theyreported receiving grants from the World Health Organization;Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Janssen Pharmaceuticals; and theBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, for work outside of thisstudy |
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----you-have-to-laugh---
03 May 20 19:23 Joined: 06 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 7,636 | Blogger: ----you-have-to-laugh---'s blog It's an actual rate not dependant on arbitrary time periods It's measured as best as possible not imagined Hence why growth was exponential and government used log scale graphs to help flatten the curve for those that do not understand ^ Show me a log scale chart for any country.... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ One country will do. How about Sweden where there is no lock down. Or Belarus where they advise having a vodka. If there really is exponential growth in deaths you would be able to show it. |
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You will see log scale graphs used in daily btiefings by government
Tell me you knew that and are not posting for hours without even basic knowledge outside of whack job land |
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So
Austerity kills folk Infection rate was exponential Tories lie Owt else we have shown on this thread   |
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Yes, Bill and Melinda Gates are evil.
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It's funny how easily masses free thinkers are convinced that someone is a super villain.
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masses of free thinkers
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Lockdown is a joke. We individual can make out own judgement what is best for ourself. I live in a close of 40 properties and everday people were outside talking in groups, eating drinking etc. Yesterday a police car came round casing the area and guess how many were caught?
None. It was raining |
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There is a definite part of societywho definitely seem to need a proper baddie nowadays. Just a nice cosy black and white argument where they are always the good guys. And there will be some "other" who is always trying to harm them. Chavs, Muslims, the EU, and now the Chinese and erm Bill Gates.
So much easier to deflect people and let them fight these imaginary monsters while the capitalists get busy. |
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It's the people brought up with Marvel, pro wrestling and DC Comics instead of something multi-faceted and complicated like Mickey Mouse imo.
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