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Angoose
30 Apr 20 19:28
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Date Joined: 18 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 24,312 | Blogger: Angoose's blog
A testing target: why does the 100k target matter?
By UK National Testing Strategy Coordinator Professor John Newton
https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/30/a-testing-target-why-does-the-100k-target-matter/

As the Evening Standard commented yesterday “when the Health Secretary promised that 100,000 people a day would be tested for coronavirus by the end of this month, it looked an impossible goal.” I know too well how, at times, it has felt impossible.

By tomorrow night we will know if we have achieved that goal. To the surprise of many outside the programme we are already very close to that level of testing.
This is an extraordinary achievement and a tribute to the sheer hard work of some amazing people.

Our aim as we tackle this virus has been to make it easy, fast and simple for NHS workers, care staff and an expanding range of essential workers who need a test to get a test, in addition to patients. We have also prioritised the most vulnerable expanding testing to the over 65s and their families.

As we move to the next phase the requirement for testing will change and we can now respond quickly with the testing capability needed.

Our ultimate goal is that anyone who needs a test should have one.

The UK entered this crisis with a world-leading pharmaceutical industry, but our diagnostic capabilities did not match.

In the space of weeks, we have created a test for this virus, more than doubled the capacity of NHS and Public Health England labs, built a network of 50 regional testing centres, we are building 70 mobile testing units by this weekend, and have created home testing kits. This is all backed-up by the creation of three ‘mega-labs’ that can analyse all the tests taken. This is the biggest expansion of diagnostic capacity in modern times.

There have been a few bumps along the road – who would have thought lockdown would have seen so many post boxes closed  - so in order to be able to offer a home test to everyone on a uniform basis we need to use couriers to get the used kits back to the labs so the samples stay live?

But what is the point?  Why do we need all this testing?  First a few myths to bust.

Back in March, the country moved into “lockdown” because the virus was circulating widely, not because we did not have enough tests.

Cases were popping up with no obvious connection to other cases.  The infection was entering the exponential growth phase. At this point access to limitless testing would have made no difference. The decision to enter lockdown would have been the same and would have been taken at the same time.

In the same way the route out of lockdown has not been blocked by lack of testing.  We can relax social distancing only when the Government’s five tests are met and that means getting the infection rate right down.  Testing will help to keep it under control once we are out, but lack of testing has not kept us in lockdown a day longer.

What about Germany? Yes, Germany had a lot of tests available from the get-go, but there was also a lot less virus around and it was in younger people.
Back to the here and now, where does all this leave us in the UK at the end of April?

The 100,000 a day target was set for two purposes.  It was intended to motivate the programme and set the scale of our ambition. It has certainly done that.  More importantly we knew from our calculations that we would need something like this level of testing to be ready for the next phase.

Looking to the future then, we now have a very substantial and flexible testing capability in the UK.

It will be used to drive extensive contact tracing to control any new infections, help us keep patients and staff safe in hospitals and care services, and to tell us with some precision how the virus has spread across the country. This means that we can identify who may have been in contact with someone infected, and prevent them from passing in on further, driving down transmission of the virus.

The introduction of the new NHS app for contact tracing is also in development. As we do this, we are working closely with some of the best digital and technological brains, and renowned experts in clinical safety and digital ethics, so that we can get all this right. The more people who sign up for the new app when it goes live, the better informed our response will be and the better we can therefore protect the NHS.

All this frees Ministers and their scientific advisers to choose whatever future strategies are best suited to keep the country safe.

Whatever the outcome tomorrow, I can assure you that the testing capacity we have built in the last few weeks is world-leading in its scale and sophistication, and gives us the flexibility we need to deal with rises and falls in demand. As the pandemic evolves, we will have the testing capacity to meet changing demand across the country. It is there to serve us all.
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Report Angoose April 30, 2020 7:29 PM BST
What about Germany? Yes, Germany had a lot of tests available from the get-go, but there was also a lot less virus around and it was in younger people.

How do you know if there is "a lot less virus around" unless you are testing ?
Report SPOT THE DOG April 30, 2020 7:30 PM BST
R YOU MIGHT WELL ASK
Report SPOT THE DOG April 30, 2020 7:30 PM BST
R YOU MIGHT WELL ASK
Report sofiakenny April 30, 2020 7:33 PM BST
Prof geezer from Oxford on ch4 news says he reckons its been done..hope he's right..test test test.
Report Des Pond April 30, 2020 7:48 PM BST
The thing about tests for frontline NHS staff is that they are of limited value if you are having to go back to work the next day and the day after, A friend of mine working as a nurse says the "have you got the virus?" test will make little or no difference to her, as she would need a test every day.
Report Des Pond April 30, 2020 7:50 PM BST
I know that the tests are still important in the bigger picture, but getting tested once will not do a doctor or nurse much good as an individual.
Report Cider April 30, 2020 7:52 PM BST
There's a threshold where contact tracing ceases to be viable, not matter what the testing capacity is. It's not just the testing is it, it's the legwork and manpower involved in tracing, and of course undertaking the tests.
Report Des Pond April 30, 2020 7:57 PM BST
An antibody test which can ascertain whether an individual has a degree of immunity would be much more useful, if such a test is possible.
Report GoBallistic April 30, 2020 7:58 PM BST
When there was one known case in this country, that proved too much for "track and trace" and they quickly lost control

Now that are many thousands of known new cases every day spread across the nation ... well good luck with that
Report sofiakenny April 30, 2020 7:59 PM BST
Agree with that des but until such times...
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:01 PM BST
the infamous super spreader, seems a long time ago now
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 8:03 PM BST
the interesting number will be Fridays tests number,will the increase carry on 50,000 in last 2 days if it gets somewhere near tomorrow, so you,d think 125,000 for fri,or will capacity stay at around a 100,000 and tests drop to below a 100,000
on numbers given we actually tested more yesterday than we had capacity for
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:06 PM BST
Are you preparing for Matt to hit the target after a month saying it couldn't be done?
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:08 PM BST
I'm sure you will be humble in your praise if they make it. Or maybe not Laugh
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 8:12 PM BST
no because it wont be 100,000 people ,100,000 tests will equate to about 75,000 individuals at best, I didn't say he wouldn't get there just queried how, and was actually proved right if it happens,50,000 in last 2 days
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:13 PM BST
it's most definitely 100K tests
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:14 PM BST
I didn't say he wouldn't get there

Crazy
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 8:16 PM BST
think you,ll find most sane people assumed 100,000 people
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 8:18 PM BST
listen to nhs trusts their people in carehome,s still arnt getting tested
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:24 PM BST
as you alluded to 100K or not it's not fait accompli. The practicalities of testing care home residents must be immense.
Report eyeball April 30, 2020 8:26 PM BST
There is no point of testing after being in a partial lock down since March 23rd . I would be guessing if i knew when the virus entered the UK but

the earliest detected case in China was 17th November 2019 . It could easily have started before this date because the viral season in the Northern

hemisphere runs from October through to May . it is not beyond the realms of possibility that it has been with us since last year and wrongly

diagnosed as influenza . It could have been here for six months . The first confirmed case in Italy was 31st January . We must have had infection

here for at least three months probably four without testing or contact tracing .

We know the people who are at risk . These are the people who should have been looked after and protected . But it has not been done and the

government have taken a different route focusing on the entire population after dithering .

I would not be surprised if ten million or more , are or had been infected and had shown various levels of symptoms . the horse has already bolted .
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:30 PM BST
There's been no excess deaths in the stats until April.
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:33 PM BST
All you people counting the covid 19 positive deaths are conveniently forgetting that going into lockdown causes deaths as well. And once you're in it it's bl00dy difficult to get out of it.
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 8:35 PM BST
ive the bloke from scarbrough on tv a few times who runs 3 care homes and cant get his people tested but has booked them in and waiting for details on how,i would imagine the army pop ups would do them ,maybe they've got up and running in last 48 hrs,
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 8:38 PM BST
government reckon 30% of buisnesses closed,didnt have to close under governments plans/thinking and their hoping to start to nudge people back next week, public bought into their lock down to well
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:40 PM BST
Easier to furlough people than take 30% of normal business.
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 8:44 PM BST
heard a top end eaterie owner today saying he could create more space, move tables around but it reaches a point where the next table you have to move means the numbers don't work
Report Cider April 30, 2020 8:50 PM BST
There are workarounds but very tricky to maintain social distancing with any kind of visitor numbers.
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 8:55 PM BST
just reading todays 81,00 tests were on 54,000 people,how do they do 30,000 wrong tests,does it mean they've basically broken,dropped 30,000 swab sticks,dont get it,if you've scraped it around and hasn't got enough material on swab ,why cant they just put it up again, seems a hell of a lot of wastage,or is it the quality,skills of those doing the testing
Report irishone April 30, 2020 9:00 PM BST
Eyeball .....spot on 100%
Report irishone April 30, 2020 9:02 PM BST
Apart from one thing
Which I believe only applies to Ireland
It was diagnosed as a chest infection
But at a nearby nursing home
As COPD
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 9:03 PM BST
report today says there were at least 5 deaths due to covid prior to 1st established covid death
Report 1st time poster April 30, 2020 9:07 PM BST
so people like me and others on here who were discussing months ago a horrible dry cough, that people couldn't shake off in early jan, doing the rounds could have been a covid runner, although when someone asked dr Hillary about it weeks ago,he said no chance
Report Kriskin April 30, 2020 9:13 PM BST
The question needs answered - if NO vaccine then this Virus will still be about.  You cannot keep locking people up for months upon months.  This is going to cause more issues when they do eventually come out of their hibernation.

Over half of the Covid 19 deaths in Scotland are within care homes.  The more younger healthier Scots people currently hibernating need to be released from their homes to start mixing again.  Immunity will only be achieved through this.  The longer people are not mixing then we will be open to all sorts of virus's and diseases in the future
Report irishone April 30, 2020 9:37 PM BST
People who had it before news got out
Knew they had something very different to flu
It was not flu
.....although they wanted it to be
Because they knew they could handle flu
This was not flu ....
Even now people who have had it
Are not 100% right in the lungs
Report Angoose April 30, 2020 10:14 PM BST
I reckon that the majority of people who think they’ve had it, but we’re never tested, haven’t had it.
If they ever get a reliable antibody test, then maybe we’ll find out.

As for those in the front line, I’d imagine that gaining piece of mind at a point in time would be a very welcome development.
If you have been taking all appropriate precautions, then you’ll also be as sure as you can that you haven’t subsequently become infected.

You can then participate in a regular testing program to provide further periodic confirmations.

At some point, I’d imagine that some clever clogs will develop a simple prick test / saliva test that simplifies the testing process further.
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 10:35 AM BST
54,000 people tested all supposedly essential workers all[ apart from care staff who cant get tests] ,supposedly  continually coughing,40 degree temp etc , all been closer to corona than joe public for 6 weeks ,yet only about 5,000 tested positive I think, must show people were basically just getting tested because they could
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 10:39 AM BST
when track and trace comes in ,mobile app etc,if you test positive and work in a factory with 2,3,4,5,600 people does that mean those 600 have to self isolate for 14 days,factory close ,etc,obviously they wont,and obviously anyone who needs to work to pay bills, wont self isolate if their fit enough to go to work ,so whats the point
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 12:35 PM BST
another dozen or so interviewed on sky/bbc this morning making about a 100 since tues and yet to produce a cough,sneeze,bead of sweat between them despite some of them spending 2/3 hrs in a car,anyone any idea what corona symptons these people are showing,maybe 2/3 hr car journeys are unwittingly the vaccine
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 2:38 PM BST
just for my friend CIDER Laugh,
I HAVE SOLVED THE MYSTERY OF A SUDDEN surge in tests,prior to tues a test was considered a test when it had been tested in a lab,since then a test is counted when someone asks for one and its sent out by mail, regardless of, if its ever returned back to the lab,
not like cummings and co to play smokes and mirrors with numbers, Laugh
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 2:41 PM BST
Now counting tests that may never happen as actual tests.
This needs to be brought up at the daily briefing.
Report saddo May 1, 2020 2:43 PM BST
Why Does The 100k Testing Target Matter?



Ask the MSN, wasn't it they pushing and pushing for a guaranteed date/number? I'm guessing it was so they could attack when the number wasn't reached.
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 2:47 PM BST
52,000 tests tues 27,000 people tested
82,000 tests wed 53,000 people tested
100,000 tests thurs . ? tested

wakey,wakey
looks like some of those doing testing have been told to test as many people twice as they can,  Laugh
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 2:49 PM BST
Clearly, testing is going to play a major role in how and when lockdown measures can be eased, and capacity was initially woefully inadequate.
As for the 100k target, that's a good question for Mr Hancock, he's the one who made the big song and dance when he launched it.
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 2:50 PM BST
depending on todays numbers could be over 100,000 wasted swab tests in 3 days,probably from start to result sent out over £200 per test
100,000 x 200 money through in the bin in 3 days,
didn't quite hear it earlier but Scottish failed tests were miniscule % wise compared to uk,s,maybe they have better trained staff to shove it up peoples noses
Report Cider May 1, 2020 2:52 PM BST
Any smelling a back track Mischief
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 2:55 PM BST
They need to give us test result numbers, not test kit numbers.
If they want to play the test kit game, they can add in the £20M worth of useless Chinese antibody test kits Crazy
Report Cider May 1, 2020 2:56 PM BST
Jeremy Hunt seemed reasonably confident Matt would get there. Hopefully, it's not that material in the bigger picture but would be a bit of a boost for everyone. Even 1st timer Wink
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 2:57 PM BST
it all come out in the wash cider,media all over these tests like the care homes,hanncock wont be able to blag his way through the numbers,
around 100,000 different people tested yesterday compared to wed,how many swabs do you think the testers will have messed up shoving up 100,000 different sized noses ,today Laugh
Report Cider May 1, 2020 2:58 PM BST
Need swabs to wipe away your tears later on Grin
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:00 PM BST
They did do something that was bit of creative accounting, apparently in the billion pieces of ppe delivered, a pair of gloves counted as 2 pieces Laugh
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:04 PM BST
But if they'd been really smart, they would have counted the fingers and thumbs as individual items.
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:05 PM BST
And if they'd cut the gowns in to quarters .........
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 3:06 PM BST
health journal reports on april 30,up to 50,000 of the tests will count thoise as sent out by mail to people,
might as well just send 100,000 out and be done with it
all this smokes and mirrors will just drag it out for hancock
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:09 PM BST
Guardian? BBC? Communist Times?
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:09 PM BST
Health Service Journal Grin

https://www.hsj.co.uk/story.aspx?storyCode=7027544
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:11 PM BST
The government has changed the way it is counting the number of covid-19 tests carried out in a bid to hit its target of 100,000 tests per day by the end of April, HSJ can reveal.

Previously, a test would be counted once the sample had been processed in laboratories. But this definition has been changed in the last few days, a senior source told HSJ.

The Department of Health and Social Care is now including tests that have been posted or delivered to people’s homes in its figures. This means tests which are sent to people are counted before the recipient has provided and returned their sample to a laboratory.

HSJ understands that up to 50,000 of the tests that will be reported as having taken place on 30 April will actually represent the mailing or the agreeing to mail a home testing kit.

In the last seven days (23-30 April) the number of tests reported by the government rose from 23,560 to 81,611.

The source told HSJ that work to achieve the 100,000 tests per day had been “manic” and that the health and social care secretary Matt Hancock was “obsessed” with reaching the target. “They are trying every trick in the book,” the source said.

“They had to get the permanent secretary at DHSC (Chris Wormald) to agree to a change in the counting process.

“We’re now counting a home test as tests which have been sent to people’s homes.”

Testing for covid-19 has been predominantly carried out under two of Mr Hancock’s five “pillars”, within the government’s testing strategy.

These are tests at laboratories run by Public Health England and NHS hospitals (Pillar One) and swab tests at dozens of community sites across the UK (Pillar Two), with the latter including the posting of home testing kits and deliveries by companies such as Amazon.

HSJ understands around 27,000 home tests were posted to people yesterday as part of pillar two work. They will form part of today’s testing figures which are yet to be published. 

HSJ’s source said: “The view is that is unsustainable. It was just a massive one-day mission on the part of Amazon and the Royal Mail”.

HSJ understands the number of home test kits that have been returned by Amazon this week is about one one third of the number posted.

Meanwhile, the government has recently announced two testing programmes under Pillar Four, which will eventually include hundreds of thousands of people.

One of the programmes, announced on Wednesday and led by Imperial College, Imperial College Health Healthcare Trust and polling company Ipsos Mori, will see 100,000 home testing kits sent to people across the country. 

HSJ understands around 25,000 home testing kits were posted to people yesterday through this scheme. On Wednesday, only 1,150 tests under Pillar Four had been carried out.

The other Pillar Four programme, announced on 23 April, aims to track coronavirus in the general population and is led by the DHSC and Office for National Statistics, with the help of University of Oxford, data science company IQVIA UK and the National Biosample Centre in Milton Keynes.

Testing figures for yesterday will be announced later today.

The DHSC has been approached for comment.
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:13 PM BST
Just tell us that you've done 60 million tests as you intended to test everyone in the country Laugh
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:14 PM BST
unnamed source, same old shyte, may as well have been the guardian or bbc
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:15 PM BST
No problem then, all Hancock has to do is tell us how many negatives and how many positives from the magic number he reveals.
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 3:16 PM BST
will show out in the number of individual people tested ,which hancock probably won=t mention ,but will be in data,as ive posted only about 80,000 individual people tested out of 135,000 tests doesn't add upo
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:17 PM BST
Or ask Chris Wormald to confirm or deny whether a change in the counting process has taken place.
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:18 PM BST
Cider, if it was proven to be true, would it come as a huge shock to you ?
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:21 PM BST
Huge shock over egging it but if it was true why would the source not be named. When the source is unnamed the story tends to be exaggerated or false.
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 3:23 PM BST
if the nhs pro,s are messing up 40% of the tests legitimately[ not because of a hancock scam Wink] what % of home test kits where they,ll only have one go at it, are going to be messed up  ?
hancock will have to pay joe public to mess them up or joe public will make nhs workers taking the tests look totally incompetent, Laugh
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:24 PM BST
The source more than likely works in the NHS.
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:25 PM BST
The healthcare sector is littered with labour activists who won't be happy that it looks like Matt could achieve the target that seemed out of reach to many.
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:27 PM BST
Did you get that information from an unnamed source Grin
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:27 PM BST
twatter ;)
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:29 PM BST
They bring it on themselves though, don't they.
Hancock stood there and denied having set a 25k target despite there being filmed evidence of him having done so.
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 3:32 PM BST
send the question in angoose,i,m sure cummings will pick it out for hancock to answer, LaughLaugh,

cider your right about left leaning union types in public servicers,transporty,nhs,social care,schools,which is going to make it very bdifficult in unwinding this lockdown,
Brexit loons like bridgen stirtring labour/khan/union plots wont help, the last mayor  to have his trouser,s pulled down and spanked by LFT union was DORIS in run up to olympics
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:35 PM BST
Even the footballers are at it. When people are paid for not working it's pretty difficult to break that habit, having a ready made excuse not to.
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:39 PM BST
The media pushing the narrative of panic has a lot to answer for, broadcasting images of doctors and nurses in hazmat suits, mass graves in foreign countries etc. It wasn't representative but that's the image they put out.
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:41 PM BST
A 24/7 campaign telling people to STAY HOME has worked.
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 3:41 PM BST
saw an article somewhere this morning along the same lines
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:42 PM BST
What they now need is a simple message on the side of a bus to get them back out Grin
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:43 PM BST
People are different though. Some will be genuinely scared, some will be itching to get back to normal, some will rinse it for what they can get away with.
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:43 PM BST
That's people.
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:44 PM BST
tbh I'd be quite happy to carry on wfh personally, I'm not really a people person so permanently wfh is great!
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 3:46 PM BST
I was very surprised when the government moved as quickly and as generously as they did with the financial support.

Work from home doesn't work for all and the death of the high street looks likely to be accelerated.
Report jefferz May 1, 2020 3:47 PM BST
60 million people divided by 100 thousand per day = 600 days to test us all
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 3:47 PM BST
ive done a weeks shutdown during lockdown and didnt like it feel right,worried whsat might you bring home,

furloughed workers,foodbanks, mortgage hols,credit card hols,sky/bt hols,no pubs , no work expenses,plenty of corona millionaires out there LaughLaugh
Report Cider May 1, 2020 3:50 PM BST
saved quite a bit of cash and pumping it into the markets. yesterday was not a great day for my rdsb holding Sad
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 5:10 PM BST
smashes it
just make for more scruitny on numbers ,to clever for his own good maybe
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 6:04 PM BST
So, the unnamed source wasn't speaking with forked tongue, unlike Hancock and Newton.
Report 1st time poster May 1, 2020 6:06 PM BST
hancock and co don't mind they,ve got their propaganda out there to the masses,the detials later are only noticed by us loons
Report Angoose May 1, 2020 6:13 PM BST
GET TESTING DONE
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