Chit Chat
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23 Apr 20
08:24
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Date Joined:
25 Aug 05
Delays in diagnosing and treating people with cancer could lead to more years of lost life than with Covid-19, according to a leading cancer expert.
A drop-off in screening and referrals means roughly 2,700 fewer people are being diagnosed every week, Cancer Research UK says.
Cancer screening has paused in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with few invitations sent out in England.
People are still advised to contact their GP with worrying symptoms.
But Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer and global health at King's College London, said there was more fear of Covid-19 than of having cancer at the moment. With GPs more difficult to contact than normal, this was resulting in a "dramatic drop-off" in referrals to specialists, he said.
"Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.
With cancer patients generally much younger, Prof Sullivan predicted "years of lost life will be quite dramatic" on top of "a huge amount of avoidable mortality".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303
^
Boris you must take this and deaths from suicide, heart issues and everything else rather than looking at the Covid-19 thing in isolation.
The 'cure' is worse than the disease and that is before you take into account the cost on health and society due to the trashing of the economy.
We need to go back to the plan of protecting the vulnerable (and do it properly this time) and let the younger people get on with their lives.
A drop-off in screening and referrals means roughly 2,700 fewer people are being diagnosed every week, Cancer Research UK says.
Cancer screening has paused in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with few invitations sent out in England.
People are still advised to contact their GP with worrying symptoms.
But Richard Sullivan, professor of cancer and global health at King's College London, said there was more fear of Covid-19 than of having cancer at the moment. With GPs more difficult to contact than normal, this was resulting in a "dramatic drop-off" in referrals to specialists, he said.
"Most modellers in the UK estimate excess of deaths is going to be way greater than we are going to see with Covid-19," he said.
With cancer patients generally much younger, Prof Sullivan predicted "years of lost life will be quite dramatic" on top of "a huge amount of avoidable mortality".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52382303
^
Boris you must take this and deaths from suicide, heart issues and everything else rather than looking at the Covid-19 thing in isolation.
The 'cure' is worse than the disease and that is before you take into account the cost on health and society due to the trashing of the economy.
We need to go back to the plan of protecting the vulnerable (and do it properly this time) and let the younger people get on with their lives.
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2700 fewer people diagnosed every week.
Six weeks lock down results in 17,000 few people. No one believe it will only be six weeks now. Then there will be a backlog and people will not be able to get appointments. Add in people not getting treatment. This is a direct result of the scaremongering and group think reaction to Covid. |
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So you want to kill these people and more with COVID instead?
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The right wing are utterly desperate to kill tens of millions worldwide because their system might collapse and be replaced by one that works.
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If you truly believe it is "scaremongering" you should get the bus down to your local supermarket without a mask of course(the goverment said they are not needed) and get a few bits in for a nice dinner.
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dave, you are one of the most intelligent posters on here, I'm struggling to believe you wrote that at 7.35.
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Dave why is saying the total lock down could well mean more hours on the planet are lost than not having a total lock down right wing?
It is not just cancer. Have a look at the domestic abuse thread. Think about heart disease. The NHS is recieving very few patients and this will unfortunately lead to extra deaths in the long term. |
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saddo Insider trader has been posting US style anti-lockdown posts for days. It is quite obvious that this line of thought is based on contempt for the sick and the old who must be left to die to preserve the capitalist system.
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We need to go back to the plan of protecting the vulnerable (and do it properly this time) and let the younger people get on with their lives.
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If the NHS is receiving very few patients why aren't they deployed elsewhere or redeployed back to cancer screening etc? That is an "administrative" error,surely the covid and normal services can and i think probably are working in tandem?
Surely if they have very few patients,it is time for a turnaround,whose fault is that? |
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^^When the younger people and nhs staff are off sick and quarantined they won't be treating cancer patients or getting on with their lives.
We haven't organised ourselves yet to ease lockdown - mass testing is required and probably masks provided for everyone. |
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Probably a lot of "younger" people working in care homes getting on with there lives trying to protect the most vulnerabe, and they can't even get a test though they suspect they have covid.
When you are at this point IT you are nowhere. |
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heard 2 brains willet on newsnight last night saying tory,s have been a success because nhs hasn't been over run, and normal illnesses wouldn't get treated, but if people are staying away because their frightened their policy has failed ,because staying away is just as bad as been over run treatment wise
hancocks 150 point plan started as a 5 point plan don't go to hospital,dr,s unless you have to don't phone 111 unless you have to hospitals,care homes,dr,s surgery are biggest seats of the virus lack of ppe is causing the spread lack of testing for nhs workers is causing the spread quel surprise when people stay away,who,d have flunked it,you,d have to be in the process of receiving the last rights to even consider going to hospital if your over 50,s |
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The last place you want to be is a hospital right now. Would it not make more sense to treat as many covid patients as possible in the Nightgales? Could that be done? We need some covid free hospitals particularly for cancer patients. It is like robbing Peter to pay Paul. It is possible that just just as man6 die from non covid disease because of the way things have been handled.
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tested nhs workers in ppe don't want to go into hospital but loonies like hancock begging people to go
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Whisperingdeath, even the non covid hospitals are like ghost ships. Our largest has been given over to covid and A+E, the other two are doing ongoing chemo -and no doubt other stuff- but the car parks are almost empty all day. I took someone for heceptin last week, chaos. We had three round trips for one treatment due to problems at their end, over 100 miles in total. You cannot go in with them, they are temperature tested before being admitted. Some relatives are sat in the car park for 7 hours without a bog if they are non drivers.
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This is a direct consequence of the pandemic. Using it as a reason to call for a release of lockdown doesn't stack up. There will be more spread and more people in hospital if you release lockdown now, exacerbating the problem with other diseases not being treated and people fearing covid.
You've missed the boat to give out about a lockdown. The time to complain was when they were doing nothing and encouraging the spread - that has made a lockdown inevitable and required them to set aside the bulk of hospital capacity for the peak. It also increased the size of the peak and meant they had to set aside more hospital cover than they would have if they hadn't encouraged it. They should have been testing, tracking contacts and isolating them, instead of encouraging the spread and doing nothing. Note that that is what they are proposing to do once the surge wanes. Why do you think they are not proposing to encourage the spread and do nothing again when the surge wanes? Because it was a mistake and they know it. And not every country discourages people from getting other illnesses treated like the UK does. |
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If this lockdown continues there will be mass unemployment and a depression not a recession, possibly social unrest.
I don’t think anyone has the right answers but we need to be talking about it at the very least. There is a genuine fear that more people will die of non covid related diseases |
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Whisperingdeath
23 Apr 20 08:21 Joined: 25 Dec 11 | Topic/replies: 27,101 | Blogger: Whisperingdeath's blog The last place you want to be is a hospital right now. Would it not make more sense to treat as many covid patients as possible in the Nightgales? Could that be done? We need some covid free hospitals particularly for cancer patients. It is like robbing Peter to pay Paul. It is possible that just just as man6 die from non covid disease because of the way things have been handled. ^ That is the ultimate plan I hear. Currently hospitals are set into Red (Covid) Zones and Green (non-Covid) zones. Reports are some hospitals are running high in the red zones but most are not. Flattening the curve does not mean less deaths from covid (area under curve the same). It just means NHS is not overrun all at once. Not having red zones at capacity is prolonging the pain of this. In the green zones NHS staff are walking around with nothing to do. Every day this happens we are building up problems for the future. |
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They are talking about it. They've been talking about exit strategies for weeks. But they are weeks away from the right time to implement them and they know that too but keep talking it up like it's imminent now, which doesn't help and is self-serving. Exiting lockdown too early is not going to make any aspect better, it will make all of them worse and risk a second surge requiring another lockdown. You are talking about a matter of waiting weeks not months or years.
Flattening the curve is all about extending it time-wise. Encouraging the spread means the curve is steeper and takes longer to flatten. Flattening the curve does mean less deaths from covid because hospitals will be overwhelmed if you don't and the death rate jumps and people can't get treatment for any illness. |
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oh ffs dave
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es tut mir leid
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lurka
23 Apr 20 09:37 Joined: 25 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 15,268 | Blogger: lurka's blog They are talking about it. They've been talking about exit strategies for weeks. But they are weeks away from the right time to implement them and they know that too but keep talking it up like it's imminent now, which doesn't help and is self-serving. Exiting lockdown too early is not going to make any aspect better, it will make all of them worse and risk a second surge requiring another lockdown. You are talking about a matter of waiting weeks not months or years. Flattening the curve is all about extending it time-wise. Encouraging the spread means the curve is steeper and takes longer to flatten. Flattening the curve does mean less deaths from covid because hospitals will be overwhelmed if you don't and the death rate jumps and people can't get treatment for any illness. ^ That is the point hospitals are not overwhelmed. The original mission to protect the NHS. It has been protected. ICU beds are sitting empty. Cancer treatment centers are sitting empty. Cardiac outpatients are sitting empty. Green zone day beds are sitting virtually empty. |
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well there's no need to release a lockdown to fill them then is there? what is that going to achieve?
We know you want the lockdown released. But those hospitals being empty has nothing to do with that. Releasing lockdown will only mean they have to set aside more hospital cover because the spread will increase. Your argument makes no sense. |
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china realised pretty quickly that hospitals were places that spread the infection so they built new hospitals just for covid patients. it is nothing new that hospital acquired infection is a big problem. we really keep covid patients out of our local hospitals and in the nightingale facilities (and maybe other smaller such places).
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really should ...
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I don't believe those Nightingales are currently capable of operating anywhere near capacity. You need all the equipment and trained staff, not just to set up a hospital.
But if there's capacity in non-covid hospitals then there is nothing stopping people getting treatment right now, so no need to release lockdown. Lockdown has nothing to do with it. Releasing it will only increase spread and the chances of getting covid and thus the fear that leads people not to get treatment. Doesn't stack up. Stay in lockdown until your numbers fall to trackable case levels and people will have good reason not to fear covid and be more willing to get treatment for non-covid illnesses. |
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Edy, it is fair to say I was taken in the Imperial College report as much as the next person.
It is not my job to work on these things. Protecting the NHS made sense to me given the garbage numbers in the report. Now we know the assumptions were poor the policy is also poor. It has been clear to me for a couple of weeks the mission is creeping into something else. There is capacity in the NHS now that the Imperial report never allowed to be increased in its modelling. Boris and Trump and Macron and all the other are making a mistake to allow mission creep on this. |
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What is the mission creeping into?
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We certainly do appear to have certain posters engaged on a creepy mission
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lurka
23 Apr 20 09:47 Joined: 25 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 15,270 | Blogger: lurka's blog well there's no need to release a lockdown to fill them then is there? what is that going to achieve? We know you want the lockdown released. But those hospitals being empty has nothing to do with that. Releasing lockdown will only mean they have to set aside more hospital cover because the spread will increase. Your argument makes no sense. ^ It will get people working and get the economy moving so we can pay for things like the NHS. It will stop people losing their jobs. It will give people the confidence to go to the doctor and get treatments. At the moment they tell us it is unsafe to go out for non-essential things. Hardly inspires confidence to go the doctor. |
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i fear you are correct lurka, i am sure i heard that they lack staff. yesterday whitty seemed happy to carry on treating patients in our hospitals so the virus will continue to spread .....
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edy
23 Apr 20 09:57 Joined: 13 Dec 06 | Topic/replies: 225,381 | Blogger: edy's blog What is the mission creeping into? ^ The original idea was to protect the NHS. 'STAY HOME' 'PROTECT THE NHS' 'SAVE LIVES' The NHS is protected. It appears they are now looking to do far more that just that. The NHS is now very unlikely to be over run. The Imperial report the slogan was based on assumed half the number (or more) of ICU bed we now have. That is where the larger number comes from. Imperial also told us we follow there plan expect 20k deaths. Well we are clearly well over that so the model was wrong there as well and the do not include deaths from cancer etc as a consequence. |
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Things like shutting schools have a massive economic cost and make virtually zero difference to stopping the spread.
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Kids are slobbering beasts and superspreaders.
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Their primary reason for existence is to kill old people by sneezing on them, coughing on them, touching them all over.
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trader you want to release the lock down before numbers are at a manageable level and we havent got systems in place to test, isolate and trace?
imo, that would mean the disease would spread again, so the last month would have achieved little and then in short order we would end up in another lock down. the model was wrong but surely not in the direction that helps your cause trader? |
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If people weren't confident before lockdown and still aren't during lockdown, then how will releasing it make them more confident than if case numbers are allowed to fall right down and each case is being tracked?
Lockdown is not stopping people getting treatment, you've even pointed out the available capacity yourself. The prevalence of the virus and your government discouraging them, despite having capacity, is stopping them. Lockdown drastically reduces anyone's chances of catching it, so less reason to fear infection during lockdown. |