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jucel69
15 Apr 20 22:05
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Date Joined: 03 Aug 12
| Topic/replies: 2,524 | Blogger: jucel69's blog
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1250494730451836928?s=20
Pause Switch to Standard View Lockdown end date 18 MONTHS away says...
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Report UBLE/REGY April 15, 2020 11:04 PM BST
I hope she realises some of us need things to bet on....or we won't survive that long
Report jucel69 April 16, 2020 12:48 AM BST

Apr 15, 2020 -- 11:04PM, UBLE/REGY wrote:


I hope she realises some of us need things to bet on....or we won't survive that long


I can imagine it's at the forefront of her mindLaugh

Report GRANTCKING April 16, 2020 12:52 AM BST
Scared im sick of the liga pro hockey after 3 weeks, need real sport!
Report jucel69 April 16, 2020 1:02 AM BST

Apr 16, 2020 -- 12:52AM, GRANTCKING wrote:


im sick of the liga pro hockey after 3 weeks, need real sport!


Laugh You must be scraping the barrel for things to bet on!
Have you indulged in any esports yet??

Report GRANTCKING April 16, 2020 1:05 AM BST
I have!
Report jucel69 April 16, 2020 1:08 AM BST
LaughLaughLaugh
Report Des Pond April 16, 2020 1:15 AM BST
She's right, unfortunately. Not sure how her colleagues will feel about her saying it so soon, but there will be lockdown (in one form or another? for at least 12 months, probably longer.
Report jucel69 April 16, 2020 1:55 AM BST

Apr 16, 2020 -- 1:15AM, Des Pond wrote:


She's right, unfortunately. Not sure how her colleagues will feel about her saying it so soon, but there will be lockdown (in one form or another? for at least 12 months, probably longer.


It's impossible. The country couldn't survive.
Each day costs eye watering amounts of cash

Report UBLE/REGY April 16, 2020 1:57 AM BST
I can imagine it's at the forefront of her mind jucel69

Sad
Report Des Pond April 16, 2020 2:05 AM BST
Not full lockdown or a version as restrictive as what we have now, but there will be restrictions of some level for 12 to 18 months. I wish it wasn't the case, but it is.
Report Richie_Burnett April 16, 2020 2:22 AM BST

Apr 16, 2020 -- 1:05AM, GRANTCKING wrote:


I have!


Crazy

Report casemoney April 16, 2020 2:34 AM BST
Well Furlough cannot last longer than 3 months ,They have to do something ???
Report casemoney April 16, 2020 2:35 AM BST
As for a Vaccine , if it needs to Be injected it will a long time to vaccinate 60 plus million people Shocked
Report mrcombustible April 16, 2020 7:40 AM BST
That is if they find a vaccine. Not a certainty by any means
Report InsiderTrader April 16, 2020 9:47 AM BST
No vaccine has ever been made for a coronavirus.

There will be some form of social distancing and limits on gathering etc.
Report differentdrum April 16, 2020 10:29 AM BST
Well said Nadine Dorries.

No surprise the media are now getting really uppity having been called out. You would think they are the ones running the country.

There have been numerous questions at the daily briefing which have been bordering on the ridiculous and were never going to be answered. No more than effectively mischief making. Those on the podium have just pandered to the journalists. A mistake. Quite rightly Sturgeon doesn't waste time on massaging egos with follow up questions and neither should anyone else. 

This is about what should be a very clear, simple message, with no distractions. The big question is why they need to keep repeating it.
Report Dotchinite April 16, 2020 12:43 PM BST
She clearly doesnt mean in its current form. The media jumping on statements to scare morons has been a big feature of this problem. But if she means no premier league football in front of 50,000 people or similar gatherings than i think that could still be the case in a years time.
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 16, 2020 1:10 PM BST
It's impossible. The country couldn't survive.
Each day costs eye watering amounts of cash


Agree with that.  Nadine isn't the sharpest tool in the box as she manages to contradict herself.  She also doesn't think journalists should ask the most important question and hold the government to account.  Wasn't impressed with her in IMAC, and think she should stick to writing books.
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 16, 2020 1:18 PM BST
She clearly doesnt mean in its current form.

She almost certainly doesn't, but she refers to full lockdown, so she didn't think before she posted.
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 16, 2020 1:25 PM BST
They have set up plans to relax restrictions in Germany and Austria already, but then they are countries that have clearly handled the situation much better than the UK.  Nadine's post suggests the govt doesn't have a plan.  That's clearly bollox as they obviously have plans, but her tweet suggests a passive reactive approach.  Hopefully that is just her and not symptomatic of a general malaise in government.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 1:27 PM BST
Perhaps Nadine Dorries requires to better think through the implications of her tweets before posting them.
Report paulypaul April 16, 2020 1:34 PM BST
Once the schools go back (after half term is my guess) people will relax and that could be dangerous. Huge call for the Govt and they are damned either way.
Report duffy April 16, 2020 1:37 PM BST
No large gatherings in Germany until at least September.
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 1:39 PM BST
Well that's the Nurnberg rally cancelled but at least they'll get Oktoberfest.
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 1:41 PM BST
"Perhaps Nadine Dorries requires to better think through the implications of her tweets before posting them. "

Perhaps the country (and especally our media and social media) should grow the **** up and stop acting like hysterical children with learning difficulties lurching from one outraged overreaction to another, calm down, and try and understand what people are saying and why they say it and the difficulties involved in that is a huge and complex picture.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 1:43 PM BST
Why did she post if it she didn't want a reaction ?
Report lapsy pa April 16, 2020 2:12 PM BST
The Italian foreign minister alluded to the same as ND.
Report UBLE/REGY April 16, 2020 2:17 PM BST
A lot will depend of the number of deaths

Once the Virus has peaked and starts to gradually diminish, that will effect how we react

I see we have now passed 13,000 deaths today
Report UBLE/REGY April 16, 2020 2:24 PM BST
I think she has described a worst case scenario

Everything will depend on how far the virus has diminished...that will be the pattern
Report twizzle22 April 16, 2020 2:27 PM BST
Good post JC
Report hong kong fooey April 16, 2020 8:01 PM BST
They cant do right for doing wrong.Why they dont read this forum is beyond me.Some people on here have all the answers.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 8:06 PM BST
You are right, some people on here do have all the answers, just to the wrong bleeding questions though Cry
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 8:13 PM BST
hong kong fooey
They cant do right for doing wrong.Why they dont read this forum is beyond me.Some people on here have all the answers.
--
Oh yes. What we should do is replace Boris with Piers Morgan, and all the scientific advisors and cabinet minsters with the most vocal "experts" on chit chat, twitter, and who rant on call ins on talk radio. With the benefits of 20/20 hindsight, their vast knowledge base, their time machines and bountiful amounts of testing and PPE resources from the magic storage (that the Tories are hiding from us for Eton and Hedgefund reasons), it'll all be sorted.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 8:21 PM BST
You are very opinionated for someone who believes that opinions shouldn't be expressed.
Report Whisperingdeath April 16, 2020 8:26 PM BST
Calm down dears

Perhaps maybe someone who wasn’t stupid enough to catch the virus might know a little more than the Prime Minister, The Health Secretary, The Health Minister, The Chief Officer, The Scottish Secretary who all caught it and Michael Goves daughter, the Care Minister, Therese Coffey and the Housing Minister who haven’t got a scooby on how to deal with it and where is Rees Mugg?

Experts my a*rse and politicians who cannot lead and you think they know more than some on here, really?

Well I haven’t got it and I wouldn’t allow thousands of people a day to fly here but what do I know? I know how to socially distance for a start!
Report HonkyJoe April 16, 2020 9:39 PM BST
The problem here isn't so much the opinionated posters. It's the idiotically arrogant views of the European politicians who believe they're the only ones who can have the answers. Why don't they take the time to look at what many of the (supposedly less well developed) Asian countries have done? Especially since many of the Asian countries have been dealing with SARS et al, and know a little about how to tackle these things.  South Korea set a clear model a few weeks ago, and continue to lead the way today.

70-75% of those who display symptoms have a raging fever. Get everybody (businesses and individuals) to temperature test, and set up makeshift antigen testing stations across all cities so that everybody who has a high temperature can be tested for the virus. (As of the middle of March, South Korea had only tested 270K people out of a population of 51 Million - that was an impressive achievement for then, but many European countries will be able to knock out 50K tests a day by the end of April, so testing itself shouldn't be a problem as long as you're targeting those with high temperatures. There's no need to test an entire population, as the Americans are talking about.)

Once you've got somebody testing positive, you get them to write down a list of all of the people they've been in close contact for a prolonged period for the last seven days. (That'll generally be the people they live with, a few people they work alongside, and one or two close friends.) Contact those people and tell them to get themselves tested, and try and get them to give you a further list of contacts etc. It's a lot of spadework, but it's not particularly difficult in itself. We could take on thousands of new staff temporarily and have them trained up in a few days. The key is to find out the source of the virus. In South Korea, around 80% of the cases came from just a handful of people. Work your way back until you find the source - or you run out of people who are testing positive - and you can then work back out again. In that way you can identify large groups of infected people and simply lift them out of the system. Let the rest of the people go about their normal business.

Contact tracing is the key. All European countries need to be doing it, as it's the way you work out who is infected, and isolate them so that they don't have the chance to infect anyone else. Apps might possibly help with the spadework, but basically it needs lots of people ready to make lots of phone calls. Many of the Asian countries are having great results with this. Australia also did it, and possibly didn't need to bother with their shutdown. (Many are crediting Australia's good results to their partial shutdown, but if you look at the figures, they had likely already controlled it with early contact tracing before the shutdown started to have any significant effect.  At least they seem to understand the need to have a proper system in place, and are working on having a much bigger-scale contact tracing system in place before opening up fully again. That's more than we can say for the clueless European countries.)

We could have temperature testing, mass antigen testing (50K a day would probably be fine, and 100K better still), and a national contact tracing system in place by the second week of May, and we could then send everybody back to work and keep a lid on the infections. Or we could just f**k around with economically destructive shutdowns and partial shutdowns for the next twelve to eighteen months, and spend the next fifty years writing history books about why we've been relegated to being a third or fourth-rate country.
Report Dotchinite April 16, 2020 10:10 PM BST
Great post.
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 16, 2020 10:21 PM BST
70-75% of those who display symptoms have a raging fever.

I don't know the exact figure but that's clearly incorrect.  I'd suggest from The Diamond Princess figures, that around 20-40% have a temperature above 37.5%
Report CLYDEBANK29 April 16, 2020 10:23 PM BST
If my memory can be relied upon, of the geriatric population of the DP, just over 50% of those who tested positive didn't have a temperature.  Throw in the age of the passengers and that figure only goes down.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 10:49 PM BST
never more than 18,000 tests a day in south korea with a population of 51 million. 30-40 thousand a day likely to be enough for the uk once lock down brings the numbers infected down. we still have to worry about asymptomatic carriers but testing, isolating and contact tracing is the tried and trusted way to deal with epidemics as south korea, taiwan, singapore and hong kong are showing. even with this approach it isnt easy, singapore has had to introduce a lock down as community transmission has gone up in recent days.
Report HonkyJoe April 16, 2020 11:06 PM BST
No, it's not easy. But it does appear to be the only real way of dealing with it until there's a vaccine.   Many of the asymptomatic carriers do get sorted out, by the way, as if you're working through the contacts of the infected people, and getting all of those contacts to test themselves, you'll discover plenty of the asymptomatic carriers amongst them.

It is a lot of work. But the cost and inconvenience will be relatively minor if it keeps a lid on the numbers.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 11:14 PM BST
i agree , i have been saying it for a while on here  but doing so is often labelled as after timing or just being anti tory by some on here. i think masks help too, if for no other reason than stopping you spreading it to others. the czech republic moved to lock down a lot quicker than us and made wearing masks in public mandatory, their deaths per million is a fraction of ours.

there are lots of public health inspectors and animal safety inspectors who could be used to do contact tracing as well as using technology.
Report HonkyJoe April 16, 2020 11:15 PM BST
Clydebank, I have read the estimates of 70-75% in several places. I'll can try and find my sources tomorrow morning, when I'm taking a break from looking through the form.

Just from a quick Google search, I've found a WHO report from late February that said that 87.9% of 55,924 confirmed cases reported a fever.  (Top of Page 12 at https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission... Haven't had a chance to check exactly what the circumstances of the testing were.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 11:17 PM BST
when i say a lot quicker its actually only around a week or so but even days matter when dealing with this thing.
Report HonkyJoe April 16, 2020 11:18 PM BST
Yeah, I've been reading a bit about masks today, and I think wearing of masks in public should probably be made compulsory for a bit. It seems that even a cotton mask could catch around half of all viral matter. I appreciate there are issues surrounding cleaning etc.  But it seems they could stop quite a few of us from infecting others.
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 11:21 PM BST
Good post???

Many (it's been quoted at 50%, and if the study in Germany was last week is correct maybe considerably more) don't show symptoms AND of those that do not all show a fever AND apparently you can be spreading it before you even show symptoms AND it's basically now going to be endemic to the world.

Feck knows how much good contact tracing (that many people won't comply with) is going to do once lockdown comes down a bit when it's so widespread and so easy to catch. "Someone on the tube had it" / "You went to a shop where someone was in it that day".

As an expert said the other day it's more likely we're just going to have to deal with waves of this like the Flu. Or Herd immmunity of course.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 11:26 PM BST
i follow a chap on youtube called chris martenson and some people who watch him went so far as to get a machine that measures how much shedding various materials block (i think the measurement is microns) so they could work out what was the best material to use. probably not encouraged by government due to shortages for nhs staff when they should be saying make your own. i guess the advice will change in a couple of weeks.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1249519187359383557 - this graph shows the trajectory in the czech republic once mask wearing (among other measures) came in.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 11:28 PM BST
just checking contact tracing is used in south korea, taiwan, hong kong and singapore. have they have done better than us?
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 11:32 PM BST
I keep hearing people say things along the lines of "the masks block 3 microns and the virus is 1 micron so what's the point" but I'd be shocked if the viruses come out as single "particles", they are more likely in considerably bigger moisture molecules, so I'd imagine there's a fair point to them.

Next time I go to the shops I'm going to wear one. Not least so I can make provactive tongue movements at pretty women and they won't know ExcitedWink.

Yours,
Just Gene Simmons
Report Just Checking April 16, 2020 11:36 PM BST
Well we'll see. I'm sure it'll help a bit. But as I say, if it's endemic, it'll just be a slowing factor and surely not a magic bullet.

I'm guessing any sort of phone app won't have such a massive takeup and attempts to make it compulsory will lead to .. difficulties.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 11:45 PM BST
no magic bullets, it seems like we will have to get used to it being around.

even if you only spew out or ingest smaller amounts that is good, i think medics are in such trouble as they get huge doses spat their way.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html

taleb is really interesting and thought provoking, he doesnt like contact tracing once its endemic (not sure we count as that yet) but wants lock downs. he gives it to everyone china, scientists, the who and governments.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 16, 2020 11:46 PM BST
I wrote this in an e-mail to a friend back in February. Nothing I've seen since has changed my mind (or made me any the wiser):

If forced to make a guess, it would be that most of us will get a few extra colds for the rest of our lives, some of which will be nasty and some not. And that people who are weak or ill for whatever reason will get pneumonia the way they do now, perhaps a bit sooner with this new virus being added to the ones currently floating about. I don't see how there can ever be a vaccine if it's the same type of virus as the one which causes the common cold, for the same reason there's no vaccine against the common cold itself. The virus just changes too quickly for any vaccine to be effective in the timescale it takes to bring one safely to the public.

But if there were ever a subject on which everyone, me included, is speculating from a position of ignorance, it's this one. Trying to draw conclusions from data coming out of any country which calls itself a People's Republic is always pretty much pointless.
Report Angoose April 16, 2020 11:48 PM BST
Why don’t we all start walking around on our hands.
That way, when we cough and sneeze, it will quickly fall to the ground.
Report jollyswagman April 16, 2020 11:50 PM BST
what about the nhs being overwhelmed if nothing was done to stop the spread screaming?
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 12:02 AM BST
Oh, I'm not saying do nothing, jollyswagman. You can argue about the scale and nature of the social distancing required, but some clearly is. I mean, the email in question was part of an exchange in which I was describing how I'd stockpiled 4 months of food, medicine, toiletries and dog food. I didn't want to be mingling in crowded supermarkets for the foreseeable future, so I can hardly expect anybody else to.

My point was that I didn't see any way back to as things were. I still don't. Whatever happens, whether we get back to life with only minor changes or wholesale changes, there will be changes. Everyone will have more nasty bouts of illness than we're used to, and life expectancy will be reduced for those with e.g. high blood pressure, chronic illness or just plain bad luck.
Report Angoose April 17, 2020 12:13 AM BST
Do you think that dog food can protect you from the virus Confused
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 12:17 AM BST
It protects the dog from starvation. As for me, as long as I live as long as her, that's all I ask.
Report jollyswagman April 17, 2020 12:18 AM BST
sfbtw, i thought you may have a solution, i havent read the eye in ages but i am sure you mentioned md with a different take.

the nhs is now mainly treating the virus, it would surely be better to have separate facilities to keep all the corona patients away from people in hospitals. there seems little doubt that many people with other problems are too scared to even attend hospital and lots of patients having their treatments put off cant be good.
Report Angoose April 17, 2020 12:23 AM BST
There was a piece on NewsNight earlier where they displayed a chart showing visits to doctors/hospitals for a range of respiratory and other conditions. Dropped like a stone after the lockdown was put in place.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 12:34 AM BST
Oh, absolutely, js.

The weekly excess deaths have suddenly exceeded the number of virus deaths by a huge number. As many more people are dying of other, now untreated causes as are dying with this virus.

MD in the Eye was at first rather sanguine about the virus (or fatalistic, if you like), tending to the view I expressed above in that Feb. email. People do die, specially when they're old and in ill health. And he's always been opposed to using intubation and ventilators on chronically ill, old people. From that perspective, this virus is just another of those thing sent to try us, and we'll have to accept it.

In the last issue he changed tack, and it was all Boris Johnson's fault. And Brexit too. Basically the same stuff he's been filling his column with for the last three years.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 12:45 AM BST
This was what I posted on 19 March, on the thread "Has any helthy UK person 45-55 died yet?":
___________________

M.D. in Private Eye yesterday suggested we might look at overall UK death statistics:

The week ending 10 Jan 2020 was the worst of the year so far, with 14,058 deaths. But it's fallen every week since to 10,816 in the week ended 28 February. Deaths are actually lower this year than the average for each week over the previous five years. I like to think it's the handwashing.

I guess this might be a possible way of approaching this problem of what did someone who died WITH this Chinese virus actually die OF. Look at overall death rates, because ultimately that's what matters.

Incidentally, he does also point out that early figures suggest the handwashing campaign has been a roaring success in delaying the surge of Chinese virus (as well as reducing the incidence of flu, hepatitis A, food poisoning, etc.) thus freeing up hospital space, which is what matters in the end.

Wash your hands.
___________________

Not sure how well that has aged. I do tend to think that not touching your face and washing your hands is more effective than keeping 6 feet away and/or wearing a mask. I do hope Boris takes the helm again soon, because I think he's the one politician who might be temperamentally opposed to compulsory mask-wearing. Or compulsory anything. Everyone I see wearing a mask is constantly touching their face to adjust it, and I'd be bloody furious if forced to wear one.
Report Whisperingdeath April 17, 2020 8:05 AM BST
I would hope by now we know we will have to bring salt to add to the bar peanuts when the pubs do finally open.

Some people are disgusting pigs. I have heard they teach young children to wash their hands in schools but they must unlearn this from their parents.

If I was on a tube or train and I saw someone sneeze without covering their mouths. I would not longer be polite but disgusted.

Tubes are the aeroplanes and cruise ships of the ground. Even bus drivers are dying. I said this about 5 weeks ago, the last time I travelled on a tube....why aren’t people wearing gloves or masks, why is there no hand sanitizer at stations or on platforms. There was no sanitizer at the entrance to shops and none in the pub I went to. I went to the bog and washed my hands.

I have said we have been let down and I get idiots accusing me of being anti Tory, which, of course I am but my concerns are about Government stupidity and lack of leadership. Leaders from all area’s of the community have been in short supply but those who have lead haves been beacons of hope and inspiration.

I don’t think masks are needed in public but certainly a good idea on transport and even in shops. We are in a whole different ball park about Civil Liberties. Those nutters at Michigan may be crackers but raised an important question.

Incidentally the masks are not much of a help argument doesn’t wash with me. I touch my face all the time and it is hard not to. I find it easier to avoid with latex gloves and a mask on. I am not advocating that  people wear masks at all times but certainly should be encouraged to on public transport.

You do not need to be an expert in medicine or a statto to understand where this virus is currently being spread. My suggestion is Hospitals, Care Homes and public transport oh and planes coming in every day. No proof though!

The lockdown is going to continue because the Government has been shambolic in arranging testing. More people are going to die because of this and more people will loose their jobs, houses and businesses or is that me just being anti Tory because everyone knows it’s Chi- nahhhhhh
Report jollyswagman April 17, 2020 9:41 AM BST
from what i have read hand washing seems very important. i thought i heard someone say we touch our faces on average ten times an hour?? i could well be wrong but it is certainly hard to stop doing something that is a reflex. i wear a mask outdoors but am guilty of moving it around as you say, i hope i am at least touching my face less than i was before.

definitely china's fault wd but not many western governments took it seriously until late in the day. of the asian countries who did a lot better job singapore has now felt it necessary to have a lock down as there has been lots of community transmission, particularly in foreign workers dormitories. it shows what a tough thing to deal with it is.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 10:28 AM BST
Testing isn't the responsibility of ministers. It's the responsibility of that vast army of bureaucrats in the NHS/PHE who are refusing point-blank to

1) Use the nation's vast private lab resources, because that would be privatizing "our" NHS (i.e. "their" NHS), and
2) It's too much like hard work.

Berkshire-based Apacor could supply millions of coronavirus tests, with 150,000 ready for immediate distribution.

It’s a South Korean test, which is also being used in Germany. But Public Health England literally will not return their calls.

The PHE laboratory at Colindale has still not sent for a sample so it can be verified and says it cannot find time to talk to the company until next week.

Anthony Bell of Apacor: “We have been waiting for Colindale for two weeks and it's frustrating because this supplier isn’t some small unknown company.”

Meanwhile, Genetics firm Igenomix have offered a diagnostic lab and highly trained team but have not heard back from the Government.

They have offered to do precisely the same test that PHE is using.

PHE are also failing to provide positive samples from patients to validate tests.

“It was impossible to get hold of anyone at Colindale over Easter. Did they think they could shut for the holidays? Because the virus hasn’t got that memo,” a medic told The Telegraph.

(From the Twitter feed of Matthew Lesh, and reported in the Telegraph, so I suppose it must all be Tory proaganda.)
Report Angoose April 17, 2020 10:32 AM BST
As Health Secretary, Matt Hancock is in charge of all areas of health policy with a particular focus on overall financial control and oversight of all NHS delivery and performance. The Secretary of State will also lead on all aspects of mental health, championing patient safety and driving forward the Prime Minister’s agenda.

The buck stops with Matt Shocked
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 10:40 AM BST
Starts with the 1.3 million employees of the NHS.
Report Whisperingdeath April 17, 2020 11:09 AM BST

Testing isn't the responsibility of ministers. It's the responsibility of that vast army of bureaucrats in the NHS/PHE who are refusing point-blank to

1) Use the nation's vast private lab resources, because that would be privatizing "our" NHS (i.e. "their" NHS), and
2) It's too much like hard work.


Does the Health Minister have the power to do anything about the bureaucrats in the NHS / PHE?

How are they getting away with this incompetence, laziness and neglect?
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 11:35 AM BST
How do they get away with it everywhere in every country? Hundreds of thousands of them, one of him, I suppose.

I was discussing this sort of thing with one of my Ukrainian cousins. Over there they apparently have a saying that every citizen has two 'hetmans' (a traditional rank of military officer).
Report HonkyJoe April 17, 2020 12:59 PM BST
taleb is really interesting and thought provoking, he doesnt like contact tracing once its endemic (not sure we count as that yet)

Taleb is great. On the endemic issue, I think it would be pointless attempting contact tracing while we've got thousands of new cases a day. Theoretically, though, our lockdown should act as a reset button, and at some point the numbers of new cases should fall to the low three-digits. At that point contact tracing ought to be viable assuming we were employing enough people.

It would have to be done systematically, though, and we'd have to make it clear that people were expected to comply. That would be the difficulty in a country like Britain, though as long as we made it clear that this was the solution needed to get the country back to economic and social health, it might be possible to sell.
Report HonkyJoe April 17, 2020 1:12 PM BST
Incidentally, I notice China have reported 351 new cases today. I don't know if those are anything to do with the new death calculation from Wuhan. If they were, I'd actually expect the new cases to be a much larger number than that.

If they're simply new figures, then that's rather worrying, as that's the first significant dose of new cases since the end of February. (It's still not exactly a big number in a country of 1.4B, but it could be a starting point.) They've started opening up the country again over the last two weeks or so, so that's one to watch in coming days..
Report Angoose April 17, 2020 1:14 PM BST
The Chinese figures were discussed on another thread and I suspect that the new cases and additional deaths are both part of a backdated adjustment.
If they didn't add the new cases, the calculated active cases figure would have been negative.
Report HonkyJoe April 17, 2020 3:12 PM BST
Apologies for raising a point already raised. Wrists duly slapped.
Report jollyswagman April 17, 2020 3:57 PM BST
honky joe, with a more decentralised approach maybe they could have said its too ingrained in london to do contact tracing but carry on in areas with not so many cases? it seems harsh to lock down areas that are relatively disease free.

sfbtw, i read elsewhere of phe 'not wanting to let go of their baby' but hancock surely could and should have forced them?  i am not someone who unconditionally supports the nhs, in international comparisons it isnt that bad, imo, but enough other countries do better. because they seem to have done well fighting the virus i had a very brief look at south korea's system and it seems pretty impressive, single payer with individuals taking out a bit of insurance that isnt too expensive. they do very well on outcomes and costs.
Report wolf3011 April 17, 2020 4:04 PM BST
If people do regional lockdowns then people will simply move from restricted areas to non restricted areas, wont work
Report jollyswagman April 17, 2020 4:14 PM BST
would likely need way to much policing to be successful so i have to reluctantly agree, i just feel a bit sorry for people in low infection areas who are kept in when they dont have too much risk.
Report jollyswagman April 17, 2020 4:15 PM BST
too much...
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 4:20 PM BST
The NHS is really a muddle-headed consequence of World War Two.

The Conservatives and Liberals also wanted an NHS (in fact, it was a 1944 Conservative white paper which first proposed free, comprehensive health care). The idea was existing voluntary, municipal and university hospitals should compete to fulfil contracts for healthcare drawn up by local authorities (what most civilized countries do to this day).

Labour weren't interested in that at all. Their aim was to nationalize the hospitals in the same way they wanted to nationalize everything else. The question of whether that would jeopardize actual healthcare was neither here nor there.

In the end, every single other nationalization proved to be a disaster - the National Coal Board, British Rail, British Steel, British Leyland - they all went under or had to be broken up in the end. Yet the most vital one of all - British Health - is the one we're still lumbered with.

My favourite summary of the NHS is contained in this report from the Guardian, headlined NHS comes top in healthcare survey. You have to read down to the sixth paragraph before finding:

The only serious black mark against the NHS was its poor record on keeping people alive.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jun/17/nhs-health
Report jollyswagman April 17, 2020 4:31 PM BST
the commonwealth fund, i did see that report and think it somewhat odd to be rated numero uno given we are very near the bottom for the most important measure. i think the 2017 report was pretty similar.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 4:36 PM BST
As to why this happened, my mother voted for the first time in the 1945 election which returned Attlee's Labour government. She voted Labour for the one and only time in her life, removing Churchill's Conservative-led government from power. As to why she voted that way, she always said simply "everyone still remembered what it was like before the War, and we weren't going back to that."

Then she and the rest of the electorate discovered the consequences. Billions of pounds in Marshall Plan money from the USA was squandered on nationalizing every industry possible. The same money which West Germany used to fund an economic miracle, by rejuvenating Volkswagen and ThyssenKrupp, was spent on buying uneconomic coal mines for the state and retaining non-jobs.

That wasn't all. The money from the USA was soon spent, so rationing, which had disappeared in the rest of Europe, was not only continued but even extended into areas like meat. The idea, with food and fuel being so expensive in those pre-globalized days, was that by not allowing people to buy food or petrol, they would have money left over to save on UK government bonds, and the government could use those borrowings to nationalize more things.

The result of all that was Labour's majority falling from 146 to 5 at the next General Election, and Attlee resigning in 1951. It scarred Labour with the voters and kept them out of power for a generation.

Naturally, most current Labour Party members hold Attlee up as the greatest premier in the party's history. Those who lived through his premiership, not so much.
Report HonkyJoe April 17, 2020 4:45 PM BST
The only serious black mark against the NHS was its poor record on keeping people alive.


LaughLaugh    That's quite a black mark!


I like the idea of a health service being free at the point of entry. But the main organisation of the NHS is utter tripe. Every relative of mine who has gone into hospital has ended up suffering from a catalogue of disasters. Notes get lost. The wrong drugs get prescribed. They get sent to one hospital for a night, and then get directed to another hospital for another night, only to be sent back to the original hospital because the medical staff have suddenly realised they forgot to do a particular test that can only be done at the one hospital etc.

With the NHS it seems you just get a culture of incompetence and waste. I'm sure plenty of them are trying, but there seems to be absolutely no sense that anyone knows what anyone else in the NHS is doing.  Sadly, about half of the nation won't hear of any criticism of the NHS at all, so nothing ever gets reformed.   Predictably, we've had about a week now of news headlines about the NHS itself when what we should really be discussing is how best to move ourselves away from this crisis.
Report Whisperingdeath April 17, 2020 5:40 PM BST
I wouldn’t go to my local hospital. I’d rather be operated on at the kebab shop, it is cleaner.

The NHS is a Holy Cow that cannot be criticised.

A lady I know told me that they had a whole floor in an office block in Hammersmith but only used half. They could not give it back because if they ceded  territory they would never get it back if they needed it. The rent would have been tens of thousands.

You go for a blood test the reception don’t even look up at you to acknowledge you if they are on the phone. Private Hospitals are like a Health  Farm Hotels in comparison

The NHS needs reforming and needs to cut out waste
Report jollyswagman April 17, 2020 5:42 PM BST
not sure of the latest stats wd but a few years ago the mewday was in the bottom ten for deaths in both emergency and non-emergency surgery Scared
Report Whisperingdeath April 17, 2020 6:03 PM BST
It’s a cess pit

My mum was in the Community Health Council. She made the Doctors wash their hands between patients!
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 6:42 PM BST
I'm 58 now. My three experiences of NHS hospitals:

A completely needless tonsilectomy at the age of five.

A completely useless fitting for hearing aids at 44 (the settings were impossibly loud and the "technician" didn't know how to reduce them; I then had to attend an appointment with a female social worker whom I could not understand owing to the hearing aids - when I took them out she ordered me to persist or I would otherwise suffer long-term depression).

A routine day-op to remove a hydrocele. Inevitably it got infected in the hospital, I was sent home with some paracetamol, and a week later my scrotum exploded in the middle of the night. Then I went in and had another op, in which they mislaid one of my testicles (lost the blood flow to it during the op). Never mind, I was told. You only need one. Lay in the hospital bed for 24 hours with no one attending me, so I got up and left. As far as they're concerned I'm still there 11 years later. They probably think I've gone to the toilet.
Report Whisperingdeath April 17, 2020 7:35 PM BST
Hesus Christo

No wonder you hate them! Sorry maybe dislike.
Report HonkyJoe April 17, 2020 7:55 PM BST
An exploding scrotum and a mislaid testicle??

I'm guessing you're not out clapping every Thursday night..
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 17, 2020 9:25 PM BST
I'd rather applaud a kebab shop.
Report Whisperingdeath April 18, 2020 9:19 AM BST
Laugh

Our local kebab shop is top drawer but another one won the vote as best in South East either through vote manipulation or paying for adverts.

Seriously the Consultants at Medway Maritime thought they were too special to have to wash hands between patients.

My mum wanted to bring back Matron so the wards got cleaned properly after Privatisation. I cannot imagine how many people dies of MRSA in the hospital. It was certainly hundreds if not thousands.
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