deaths up to April 3 vs five-year average

Here it is …..

That chart is compiled form ONS data released earlier today for weekly death registrations in England and Wales.
It shows the weekly average for deaths registered for the previous five years alongside the weekly figures for 2020.

The most recent week is Week 14 which ended on 3 April.

The official number of COVID-19 deaths in the whole of the UK from week 10 to week 15 is as follows :
2  9  166  582  2,846  5,553   These figures are for deaths in hospitals only.

For the three days of Week 16 reported to date, the number is 2,371.

Here is a very dramatic chart compiled by Ed Conway at Sky News.

What does it mean?

Still no numbers from nursing homes etc? WTF is the hold up there?

I'm sure some spanner will be on to say it's no worse than 2010 so why are we locking down?

Lurka, figures were made available by the ONS. Widely reported via the usual outlets.

Apr 14, 2020 -- 12:14PM, InsiderTrader wrote:

What does it mean?

I'm sure that you will tell us.

I think he wanted you to, Angoose
Why are you so antagonistic?

I don't believe that I am antagonistic, was merely encouraging IT to tell us all about, he usually does.

ok

Apr 14, 2020 -- 12:16PM, lurka wrote:

Still no numbers from nursing homes etc? WTF is the hold up there? I'm sure some spanner will be on to say it's no worse than 2010 so why are we locking down?

hospital reporting is done daily (except weekends and bank holidays as the compilers dont work then ) as they more or less know they are dealing with covid 19 so can record death as corona or corona related they both get recorded as corona

nursing homes dont have daily reporting as its recorded by doctors who then have to ascertain was it covid 19 or not that might take 5 days or even longer so impossible to do a  daily reporting you could at some time in the future do a  rolling week total and then from that work out a rolling daily average

Duke, I am aware of all that. But you have all those weekly figures going back weeks now. You need to do a reconciliation every week and you haven't done it for even one week. Then you are showing graphs at press conferences which say you are at the same path as Italy and behind France and Spain in terms of deaths. This is nonsense. You are well ahead of Italy and France's trajectory and prob very near Spain on the graph. All of those countries have added their non-hospital deaths to their totals. France a week or two ago added nearly 900 deaths to their daily death total one day because they hadn't been counting nursing homes, then they added hundreds more the next day for the same reason, on top of all the hospital deaths on those days.

It is a simple calculation - add up all the weekly non-hospital deaths to date from ONS and add it on to the current deaths total (12,868) and tell the world what the real figure is like all those other countries do and show the public accurate graphs. Just because they aren't reported at the same time or in the same way doesn't mean this can't be done. It is primary school maths.

If you want to continue reporting these deaths separately and on a weekly basis - no problem. But that means you should be adding a few hundred deaths to your total on the day the weekly figures are released, in the same way France did, and you should be doing this once a week going forward. That will mean a big spike in deaths one day every week but it's either that or report them daily as best you can like the rest do.

The graphs being shown at press conferences showing where Italy, Spain France etc are compared to UK in terms of trajectory of death numbers are complete misinformation. We are talking under-representation by 30-50% of death total here if other countries are anything to go by.

It is a scandal in play,thousands dying in care homes and very little measures done to try and prevent some of that.

handjob has 2,700 spare beds but didn't leave a contact number if anyone wants one,
probably been a bit simplistic here but if weve got 13,000 plus deaths on the way to peak and will have a plateau can we assume over next 6 weeks we,ll have at least 13,000 deaths on the way down

....... which will leave us at roughly the same death rate as the seasonal flu of two years ago

Oh dear .....

Still no explanation of what that blue and red chart is all about.

blue = ranges of weekly deaths since 2010
red = 2020 weekly deaths

...as per the plot header.

-> likely wishes to illustrate the 2020 saw a sudden spike in weekly deaths and a number of weekly deaths that hadn't been reached in any other year since 2010. This in turn could be seen as a sign that covid-19 is something that potentially should be taken seriously.

The x-axis is the weeks
the y-axis is the number of reported deaths
upper blue limit is the maximum number of deaths reported in the specific week from 2010 to 2019
lower blue limit is the minimum number of deaths reported in the specific week from 2010 to 2019

The plot is based on data published by the ONS and concern England and Wales together

you know what it is, why are you being so obtuse trader?

I think it's great that the bot wants to learn and asks questions if it doesn't understand something.

I've been trying to create a similar graph in excel, but it's real faff to get the shading

Learn python or Octave

I'm scared of snakes

pythons are friendly lil snakes

I did touch on python when I undertook an online AI course with MIT but didn't follow up on it.
Any recommended starting points ?

Since we are in the middle of a virus epidemic...it would have been amazing if the figures were not up this year

Not if you are to believe those who wish to continue to insist that COVID-19 is "just like a bad flu season".

And the figure of 16,387 for Week 14 is the highest weekly figure ever since the ONS began compiling data.

Yes, the online AI course with MIT.

If you are starting from nowhere, the Python Foundation offers a beginner's guide itself.

https://docs.python.org/3/tutorial/

If you are just interested in plotting, you'll probably find plenty tutorials on that specific topic at all sorts of locations.

I see Angoose

They probably said that about the Bubonic Plague

Your graphs reveal the truth Angoose

I'll name no names, but many on here can't handle the truth.

Apr 16, 2020 -- 11:48AM, edy wrote:

Yes, the online AI course with MIT.If you are starting from nowhere, the Python Foundation offers a beginner's guide itself.https://docs.python.org/3/tutorial/If you are just interested in plotting, you'll probably find plenty tutorials on that specific topic at all sorts of locations.

Thanks for that, will take a look.

As I've said for weeks now this event suits certain individuals down to the ground, they are low frequency beings who thrive on fear and doom

All these graphs and numbers yet when the global warming fanatics were producing graphs and numbers they were laughed at by these same people, I said last week this will get used and propagated by psychos it was inevitble

This thing will not end now its serving to many agendas, you can forget attending sporting events for at least 2 to 3 years, this thing will do 2 or 3 rounds now because its perfect fear and distraction

Its the new brexit only hyped by about 10,000

Apr 16, 2020 -- 9:05AM, lurka wrote:

Duke, I am aware of all that. But you have all those weekly figures going back weeks now. You need to do a reconciliation every week and you haven't done it for even one week. Then you are showing graphs at press conferences which say you are at the same path as Italy and behind France and Spain in terms of deaths. This is nonsense. You are well ahead of Italy and France's trajectory and prob very near Spain on the graph. All of those countries have added their non-hospital deaths to their totals. France a week or two ago added nearly 900 deaths to their daily death total one day because they hadn't been counting nursing homes, then they added hundreds more the next day for the same reason, on top of all the hospital deaths on those days. It is a simple calculation - add up all the weekly non-hospital deaths to date from ONS and add it on to the current deaths total (12,868) and tell the world what the real figure is like all those other countries do and show the public accurate graphs. Just because they aren't reported at the same time or in the same way doesn't mean this can't be done. It is primary school maths.

I understand that as well but we need an accurate and up to date way of reporting covid 19 deaths and i think the best way is hospital deaths as thats the most efficient way of recording thats if all the countries are true and honest and use exactly the same method and timings to report, going back to nursing home and at home deaths what parameters do you set for all the relevant countries to use is it doctors logging into their govt website via secure password and then do that govt publish that on worldometers or whatever site they decide to use or do they the doctors log into a universal agreed site and do it that way who decides how this is done what if some countries say we are doing it this way and others say we are doing it this way what if the doctors in this country use BMA guidelines in reporting deaths even though our govt want them to report deaths by a universal model what if say Italys govt overides its medical profession and says you will report it this way

So let's put everyone in to care homes, no more COVID-19 deaths.

Would you like to explain WHY no more COVID-19 deaths.

Read what you have written, it only counts as a COVID-19 death if it happens in a hospital.
Move the sick out of hospitals, pandemic solved, eh.

Not as simple as that people will die at home and care homes of covid and thats up to doctors to record that not the govt or anyone else

example a patient with stage 4 alzheimers (last stages of that disease) die and is tested for covid results are positive

do you record death as alzheimers or covid

dont forget about 50% of all deaths are in hospital 25% care homes

people die of old age in care homes, end of life care are in care homes hospices at home over a thousand everyday

The ONS record these deaths so they are recorded so you can work out the difference or perhaps ask someone else to do it for you

https://www.euromomo.eu/

Week 15 showing a large drop for Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, UK etc.

Not sure how accurate these stats are or how often they get revised?

France reported 17,164 new cases yesterday, Belgium has a reported death rate of 419 per million of population, UK is 202, Germany is 48.