England not Reporting Care Home and at Home Deaths.

Sontaran "100,000 deaths"  Do you think so?


Go away and google "bodies in the streets of Ecuador"(there is a few) look at their death rate and come back and comment

Very interesting chart Angoose...listen there some big guesses their but fairly reasonable...but you have got to question the 85% intial recovery for those in hospital before entering ICU(90% overall)...doubt there much lag between death/recoveries so recorded figures in most countries(not uk) probably fairly accurate, and nowhere in any of the recovery figures does it even suggest such a successful result in hospitals...this chart shows a 1% death rate for total infections...listen i hope i'm wrong but that seems massively optimistic.

you don't have to test or be a doctor to see someone seriously struggling with their breathing. just don't get why they're not getting to hospital. it's not as though it's through shortage of critical care beds. not got anywhere near capacity yet

You have to look hard for stats on the number of people recovering from Covid-19 too

Doesn't fit any agendas

Stay scared folks

UK 88,000 infected... 11,000 deaths

12% fatality rate

A bit more than the 2-3% originally suggested.

I will leave the fear to you Hanx.

Apr 14, 2020 -- 4:58PM, TheGoldenVision wrote:

UK 88,000 infected... 11,000 deaths12% fatality rateA bit more than the 2-3% originally suggested.

Really annoying to see people still reading anything into case numbers and laughable to see them then try to calculate death rates using them. Case numbers aren't accurate as not everyone is tested. UK death numbers aren't accurate either because they don't report all deaths. But by all means use two inaccurate numbers to come up with an even more inaccurate number if it serves some sort of purpose for you.

i reckon mortality rate for infected(including asymptomatic) is running at minimum 3%...thats bad enough until you project it to number of people infected. With death lagging infection by a guesstimation of 18days...that means there were roughly 400,000 total infected 18 days ago...give the next 18 days a average of 700 deaths and that would give you a total of roughly 820,000 infected today (just over 1.2% population)....a long long way from herd immunity.

The GoldenVision

Then why isn't 12% of the country dropping? why isn't the streets littered with dead bodies, why isn't their a stench coming from the houses where people have died of it in house

None of it makes sense now because we're well into it, I said we'd need to give it a few weeks to see the true direction of it and its now obvious

12% mortality rate because they are only testing dead patients ffs, and they died of other things most of them

A joke confirmed

Eric seriously mare if you can't see it by now there's no hope for you

Where are all the deaths? why isn't 12% of your town/village dead?

The streets are not littered with bodies because hardly anyone has had it

Nobody is suggesting the whole country has been infected FFS.

"new nightingale hospitals for patients may never open"

There's a sodding surprise

So what your saying eric is its not infectious then thanks for confirming

Watch him move the goal posts now.....

Its not "high infectious"

Thank you

Waiting for goal post movement...

What are you on about? It was you who asked why 12% of his village weren't dead, implying that 100% were infected.

Why are you not surprised Nightingale Hospitals may never open?

Just maths fella...early on there were just daft assumptions that huge swathes of the public may have already had it...and that was just nonsense

If the whole country catches it thats 8.4m deaths then

sorry but I think we'd have noticed that by now

More and more positives coming through eric, so its most likely 20 million have already had it

What is it a 50% positive rate from testing?

Its killing mainly the over 70s, the odd under 50 dies but majority of them are obese with other health conditions

I think we know its hysteria for no good reason at this point

only testing in hospitals FFS...those with worst symptoms and its still 75% negative

Jesus H Christ.
Why would we be in lockdown if the whole country had it?
There is no way of telling how many have had without antibody testing. So stop talking thru your arsé about how many have had it. If the experts don't have a clue then you don't.
Once again you completely ignore what would happen if hospitals were overwhelmed by allowing it to spread. Biggest melt on this forum

Ok so 75% are negative fine

So where's the problem? peopled simply ain't catching this virus are they?

In fact it gets worse when they go to hospital if anything, It'd be the last place I'd go

This is about control, this is basically another strain of flu as I said weeks ago, and its knocking off the already on the way outers, they were on the exit road anyway 99% of them

The odd under 50 with underlying health conditions aside

No lurka but what about the "celebrities" that have had it and got through it without being hospitalised

Boris the overweight drinker spent a week sitting up in bed with a bit of breathing problem that's it

Sorry but the majority dying from this are the elderly, and they get knocked off during the winter epidemic flu season anyway

Something to thing about eh

You need to look at those numbers again, 12,000 deaths from the start of March, week 7

Is 12,000 deaths really high enough in a 7 week period when its the height of the flu season in regards to releasing numbers?

50,000 died of the flu/pneumonia a couple of years ago, this thing isn't killing the young, its giving them a cough and a fever ffs

i pretty much agree with most of what you say..just i've gone a different path to you..i reckon hardly anyone has had it(%wise) but it doesn't really matter if your under60 and healthy cus you will 'probably' sail through it, IF you get it. But if your 80,with a dodgy ticker living in a care home with Romanian staff who wipe their @rses with their hands and rob you dry whilst you asleep, your probably goosed.

Don't shoot the messenger boys. If you don't like the official numbers as of 10 minutes ago, make your own up.

People tested positive for covid19... 93,873
Deaths attributed to covid19... 12,107

12.89%

I imagine 12% of the country isn't dropping, because 100% of the population hasn't tested positive.

Like I said on the other thread over 50% of deaths (ie a majority) are over 80 and currently 94% of people dying have underlying issues.
The other 6% they are probably mostly old or fat.

Yet shamefully we are still trying to scare the kids by pretending they are at risk. Disgusting and cowardly.

I'm not saying people ain't getting sick, we get sick all the time, what I'm saying is that its not killing the young like they are going off that it is

12,000 is bad when you look at as just a number, but 12,000 when we are in the worst months for hospital pneumonia isn't really all that bad

GoldenVision just making up his own narrative to fit his agenda

Stop winding people up TGV. You know those stats are totally worthless.

Dotch

This is what I'm saying, we've given it long enough now to see some proper "data", and what we are seeing is the usual flu like deaths in the elderly/weak

12,000 deaths and I'd wager 95% of them are either old, underlying health conditions, overweight/obese, poor diets and ultimately weaker immune systems

Probably even more than that I'd guess as well

SS

You thought the flu was a pandemic every year
For the umpteenth time you are comparing flu which cannot infect as many or spread nearly as quickly as this, with a pandemic novel virus which can.
The issue is not the rate of death. The issue is the rate of spread and overwhelming of hospitals when the death rate of everything jumps and 95% of people don't have a health service. I have explained this to you at least 5 times and you ignore it every time because it makes nonsense of your argument. You are comparing apples with oranges and ignoring the issue which is the rate of spread and overwhelming of hospitals.
Who is suggesting kids are at risk? Kids are mainly considered to be spreaders.

And wearing masks is a no no

It will make you sick because you are breathing the same air through the mask? you ain't getting proper circulated air which your lungs need, in fact you are producing poor air, you're body will start to suffer if you wear them for to long.

But you've just said its not affecting that many people?

You said most of us haven't had it? which is it lurka, is it high infectious or not?

If its spreading faster than the flu 80% of us would have it by now, its been 7 weeks lurka

It does seem to a controlled spread, but yet we are told its more infectious than flu

The numbers don't back this up do they

I didn't say most of haven't had it. I said nobody even the experts have a clue who has had it so you have even less of a clue. You need antibody tests for that and they haven't even started.

Stop comparing death numbers from a virus with immunity, a vaccine and no lockdown with death numbers that haven't even peaked yet of a virus with no immunity, no vaccine and a lockdown. What do you think the death numbers would be with no lockdown? You don't have a clue and neither do I but that is the only thing you could compare flu death numbers with.

so it could just be that it takes out a load old people like the flu then?

If no one knows then it could be just that?

FFS. If hospitals are overwhelmed, it will take out a lot more young and old people and a lot of others with other illnesses who can't get treatment.

Are you trolling or playing dumb?

The experts say the hospitals will be overwhelmed, even with a lockdown. There isn't a CMO anywhere in the world who doesn't think this. But continue to put your fingers in your ears and shout 'wa wa wa' pre4tending you know more than the best experts on the planet if you want.

If its so infectious and more deadly than the flu why aren't there more people in the hospitals right now?

Why are the hospitals well within capacity even though they are under funded with not only money but equipment as well ?

They only have 13% in terms of PPE and are short on ventilators but are still coping?

Doesn't add up because we are in a pandemic lurka

Lurka sorry but we are at peak numbers now and they are still coping

It might go up a bit more but we are at the peak right now

"experts" the same expert who yesterday claimed the virus lives in a dead body?

How does it get out of said dead body then?

The media seem more concerned with Trumps tantrum last night than the virus today

Yes it will probably mostly take out old codgers....12million overs65's in this country....so lets be optimistic, lets say 1 in 4 who catch KungFlu end up in hospital, lets be even more optimistic and say of those who end up in hospital 9/10 manage to walk away..that still leaves 300,000 potential dead...now listen that aint gonna happen, your not going to get a 100% infection rate...the point is project those figures onto the 10,000 old codgers who have already died and you can see the percentage of people already infected must be tiny (very low single figures).

Nobody knows if it's more deadly than the flu. The deadliness is not the issue as has been explained to you ad nauseam.

There aren't so many people in hospitals because of the lockdown provisions which don't allow it to spread quickly. The lockdown provisions were introduced weeks ago because we'd be overwhelmed by now without them, according to the experts. We are still coping because of the lockdown and because it hasn't peaked yet.

What doesn't add up. You have to be a special kind of stupid to not understand the above after having it explained to you like a child 6 times and still not get it.

Eric

This virus would be weakened by now anyway

Its has a peak strength and no amount of idiocy from "experts" can deny that, its peak hit 2 weeks ago, we are heading into warmer weather now and it will continue to weaken through the rest of this month.

Lurka sorry but we are at peak numbers now and they are still coping

It might go up a bit more but we are at the peak right now




astounding

Lurka it has peaked, we hit the peak at the weekend, Italy peaked and are still in that peak zone but its going down now. and they coped fine remember.

Don't keep moving the peaking goal posts

I predict we will see 1000+ though, but it wont go any higher, the peak like is 900-1100, you can't keep moving the peak line because it hit 938 when the other high was 909 for example that's not how it works

Could well be right fella....still pretty certain hardly anyone's had it (relatively)...and considering our 'lockdown' involves 10 milllion people still going to work/2 million kids to school you have to question is it as highly infectious as first thought

There's some right clowns on this forum seriously

What are you benefitting from? because there's no facking way you ain't benefitting from something in regards to this

SontaranStratagem • April 14, 2020 6:38 PM BST
Lurka it has peaked, we hit the peak at the weekend, Italy peaked and are still in that peak zone but its going down now. and they coped fine remember.

No, I don't remember that.

That was aimed at you have to laugh by the way

Who offers nothing but silly digs or insults

Italy coped well with it

As did Spain, their health care system were on top of it all the time

People were bound to die from various things anyway, we ain't immortal ffs

Come on now, edy provides very clever digs.

Italy's deaths, half of them have been in one area of the country, the rest of the country its way down in terms of numbers, most below 1000 deaths

so pointing out your logic failure is an insult or a silly dig  ?



oh yeah we are at the peak now says sherpa tenzing as he still had 500 ft to climb

great says sir edmund we can go back to base camp now having climbed everest

I'd say Italy as a whole coped extremly well bar Lombardy, which has a very high % of old people

yeah, the parts with far fewer infections because of a strict lockdown and restrictions did cope well. I will give you that.

The peak is the highest number of cases and deaths reported for a particular day, which has been shown to be a lie because they ain't 24 hour death figures, they are up to 2 weeks previously.

so yes we are at the peak, albeit one or two rises above the 1000

Tomorrow's figures will be of interest, I fear that we will see an extended weekend lag as a result of the Easter holiday.

Spain also coped really well

Angoose, well then the deaths reported tomorrow wont all be for the previous 24 hours would they they'll be adding in Saturday, Sunday and Monday deaths that weren't added today

So it means jack anyway

Its got to be a 24 hour death stat not a 5 day one ?

People will lose their heads but they needn't bother, there's a lag ffs

I predict 1100, and then we can enjoy utter madness being displayed

Even though the media themselves will say it was deaths reported over a longer period

But get ready for the "I knew they were hiding the numbers" line being trotted out

Eric "Yes it will probably mostly take out old codgers" Care to dehumanize them with some other glib comments.

Of course you will never get old will you? and if you do, what then, you will have little respect for your own worth going by the above, Dignitas perhaps.

It might not just take out "old codgers" though

If I have an underlying health condition I'm unaware of, I might suffer with any type of flu as well

We ain't immune to sickness, we think we are but we ain't

lets be generous 50,000 new cases (x10 actual confirmed), 800 deaths a day...herd immunity xmas 2022 (better book the party)...800,000 deaths but 700,000 of them only 5 minutes before their time

I'm 63 Fox...suggest you wind yer neck in a litte

I wouldnt want anyone to lose their job let alone a business they had built up over years just to protect my life. The fact that so many seem happy to see the ruin of others as a price worth paying to keep them safe is terrible. I wouldnt want it on my conscience.

I'm 72,so I'll go first, I'll leave it to you, if you want to wind yours in a tad.

I've got an underlyiing health issue(all 19stone of it)...so it might be a photo finish

Dotch

The first whingers when this ends, and they are seeing the ruins of their jobs and savings... will the same one's who demanded stricter lockdown

Well done you got what you wanted now go and have a whine at someone else

Or they can blame the jobless again, only they are jobless this time around but I doubt it'll stop them ffs

Stay strong, Eric, that's what people say to me, it may sound trite butI know they mean
well, and so do I.

^^^ obviously they dont say Stay strong Eric, to me.

I think everyone should get behind the Government ;they're doing their best and I defy anyone who thinks they could do a better job. It's a moot point to blame the Government for what's happening in Care Homes as not even those in public ownership (if there are any) are the responsibility of the NHS. It's a fact that if you're in such a home you're nearing the end of your life and if ever resources are such that life and death decisions have to be made then the fit and young should be protected at the expense of oldies like myself.

The big red flag now is the media making it political

Its all on Trump in America, he should have acted quicker

I think we know exactly where they are heading with it over there, no mention of deaths today on CNN just its all on Trump

I mean talk about making it painfully obvious, it took them what 3 weeks?

you can use statistics in all sorts of ways to make things look good or bad like this for instance

on the https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ there is a column deaths per million of population

so lets look at these countries

Spain is 386 compared to the UK 178 convert that 386 figure to our population of 67,808,264 you get 25,254 deaths compared to the UK 12,107
Italy 348 = 23,669
France 241 = 16.392
Belgium 359 = 24,418

China 57 = 3877

Spain/Italy/France/Uk/Belgium/Netherlands(even Sweden catching up) have markedly similar death/case rates...suggesting they are probably the norm and can be probably trusted

Apr 14, 2020 -- 8:13PM, dukeofpuke wrote:

you can use statistics in all sorts of ways to make things look good or bad like this for instanceon the https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ there is a column deaths per million of populationso lets look at these countriesSpain is 386 compared to the UK 178 convert that 386 figure to our population of 67,808,264 you get 25,254 deaths compared to the UK 12,107Italy 348 = 23,669France 241 = 16.392Belgium 359 = 24,418China 57 = 3877

why don't you just compare deaths per million and avoid those extra calculations

yes why not but anyone with an anti government stance aint going to do that

they want headline deaths like UK 12,107 but when you compare that to spain 25,254 they dont wont to know as it doesnt fit their agenda

they are now switching their agenda from deaths to PPE to care homes any any thing they can do to discredit the govt

imagine if corbinned and flabtard had been in power ffs

Is that an example of an anti Labour stance ?

Sonta, you do know many front line workers have been tested more than once? Sorry if its already been mentioned, rather shoot myself than wade through this bilge.The Testing stats worthless unless you have a whole lot more information, even then doubt it's reliable.

The amount of pointless comparisons being made between different territories and different diseases/viruses is a recurring feature of this pandemic.

Comparing Spain and Italy to the UK is one. They are weeks ahead of the UK in terms of the spread of it. The only relevance of those two countries' to the UK's spread at this point is that the UK had advance warning of what was coming down the track for them.

Scotland reports to date 25% care home and 13% other settings..38% to add to usual tally..imagine England will be similar probably worse.

What does this mean SK? Have these deaths not been counted from the start or just for that week?

I think the bbc Scotland website will explain it more clearly than I can...

Actually if the UK 'official' figs are still hospitals only, which they are, then they all have to be totted up weekly and added on. Same with rest of UK. Must be over 16k deaths then

yes lurka..dr.john campbell reckons between 30-50 % not being added to create a more honest death toll.
I really worry about the care home death rate in England could be far worse than is imagined..hope I'm wrong.

Dont buy the deliberate under reporting nonsense, **** up may be.

Government coming under growing pressure over the effects of lockdown, their only argument for continuing with it is the spread of the virus and numbers of deaths, why would they wish to play those numbers down, talking the numbers up would make more sense if they want to keep us in line.

Nonsense. Care and nursing home settings are naturally isolated from the rest of the community and would be relatively easy to lockdown separately. France totted up all their care home deaths, added them on to their total and now include them in their official figures going forward. The UK has the means to do this if they want and the fact they haven't still is scandalous at this stage.

Every government has an incentive to play big numbers down, particularly one which encouraged the spread early on. The numbers are still way too high even without these deaths to consider a relaxation of lockdown.

potis..the government went for lockdown far later than other countries even though Italy and Spain warned us of what was coming.
Cummings believes in Eugenics and a "thinning of the herd"..by allowing the infection spread for so long it ensured that the country was going
to get hit very hard..as we know the virus mainly kills the old and infirm..I really hope the carnage from care homes is not as bad as I fear.

2,000 care homes infected,if you just said three deaths per home you'd have an extra 6,000 but there are 11,000 hoimes that 2,000
fiure is miles away from all other countries,scotland for example 38% of all homes france spain italy 45-54% something absolutely stinks..The figures either are being hidden or the lag just hasn't caught them yet..

The notion that the UK govt want to 'keep us in line' is nonsense too. They want a lockdown released as soon as possible. That's why they are throwing up temporary hospitals so they have more capacity and can allow it to spread more, meaning they can come out of lockdown earlier and let it rip through the population more quickly and get back to normal sooner. They have been talking about exit strategies from day one.

I do believe you're talking bo11ox, just conspiracy nutjob stuff, if "they want a lockdown release as soon as possible" they could do so tomorrow, the only thing preventing it is the spread/death figures, which they use to justify continuing the lockdown, do you listen to what's being said?

They are constantly being ask when the lockdown will end, the response is 'no idea' does that sound to anyone like a Government in a hurry to end the lockdown.

Perhaps betfair should open a market on which Nation will be in lockdown the longest, my money will be on the UK.

LOL. I'm the conspiracist? You're the one who says they are locking down to keep people in line.

Everyone who's not a loon knows they are locking down to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed. That is politically unacceptable to them, so not possible for it to happen while that is still on the cards. Once the peak has been passed and things have calmed down a bit they will start releasing the lockdown gradually. They are focused on the economy and getting it back up to speed more than most governments.

Lurka has a good point,exactly the sort of thing the tories would do,if it's not the case why show a graph running along france on the virus updates when we are well infront of france without home deaths,we produce no old folks home deaths but show a graph that is just fake information..It makes absolutely no sense unless you intend to manipulate figures permanently and close the lockdown makes perfect sense..can't think of any other..

Really, Where did I say that? if you are going to argue at least stay honest, or are you hard of understanding, it's there for all to read.

I said the Government needs the figures to be high to justify continuing the lockdown, no incentive for them to deliberately talk them down if they need to keep us in line, get it?

The same people as usual frothing at the mouth desperate for more people to die and their deaths attributed to Chinese flu
Fùck me Harold Shipman has nothing on these scumbags
All about politics too and just a general hatred for the govt
Utter weasels of society who do nothing but whinge and moan relentlessly

You also have the case that the UK is over stating deaths!!
Some deaths are being treated as Chinese flu that are not being treated as such in other countries, ie those with serious health issues that have been tipped over the edge slightly earlier due to the virus

Apr 15, 2020 -- 5:26PM, potlis wrote:

Really, Where did I say that? if you are going to argue at least stay honest, or are you hard of understanding, it's there for all to read.I said the Government needs the figures to be high to justify continuing the lockdown, no incentive for them to deliberately talk them down if they need to keep us in line, get it?

Yeh I agree, they aren't covering anything up
I wouldn't listen to absolutely anything the rent boy says
He's an extremely bitter individual who spouts gallons of bile on a daily basis

Rent Boy