UK projected to have the most deaths in Europe

Projected figure always subject to criteria. It's mainly useless and inaccurate as it depends on so many variable factor, and possibly time too.

Only an entity or individual wanting to be noticed or doing a spot of self-promotion for importance.

Why - on this Table of projection is ...

ITALY - HIGHER estimate virtually the SAME as LOWER projection

SPAIN - HIGHER approx DOUBLE the LOWER

FRANCE - HIGHER approx TREBLE the LOWER

GERMANY - HIGHER approx 12 TIMES the LOWER

UK - HIGHER approx 15 TIMES the LOWER

-------------

If the Author was a BACKER on Betfair ... I think there would be a LOT us LAYERS

Absolute bowlux
Designed to put the sheets up you

Italy has massively tailed off recently, we are way above them, easily 100,000, could be a lot more than that, 500,000 not out the question

typo or b0llox, take your pick.

Probably not a typo , but imo the number is bollox . If there are 220k deaths here and only 28k in France then it'll probably be the greatest Government catastrophe in the last 2000 years...and I'm not buying it.

Only time will tell. Let the politicians, government advisors and NHS staff to do their job. If one cannot or unwilling to help just let the people who are, can and tasked with it to get on with it.

the central prediction of this lot was about 66,000 today it is down to 37,500.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

They are also projecting 20,333 for Italy by August 4.
Yet the current total sits at 18,849, the death rate for completed cases is 38%, and there are 98,273 active cases.

I'm afraid I simply cannot believe that only a further 1,484 deaths will be recorded between now and then.
In the last ten days, Italy has recorded 6,421 deaths or 642 per day.

It's likely that there will be at least 1,000 unrecorded deaths, all awaiting the completion of the necessary admin process prior to be added to the figures.

lacking credibility somewhat, our number down by 40% in only a couple of days.

i put it up as it makes our situation look better, their previous estimate looks more like a guess and not a very good one. the longer this goes on the less bad economists look

About as accurate as WASP in cricket.
The people punching the numbers into these projections are fùckwits
They must be the same numbskulls who keep predicting the end of the world in 30 days re climate change

Get everyone to buy into wearing masks and the numbers will tumble

Awaiting the final updates for the day from Spain and Germany before I finalise my report, Italy looks to have peaked, Spain almost there.

Apr 10, 2020 -- 9:51PM, Angoose wrote:

Awaiting the final updates for the day from Spain and Germany before I finalise my report, Italy looks to have peaked, Spain almost there.

Until everybody is let out of their cages

They don't want to encourage the public to wear masks as they are petrified that the shortages in the NHS would go off the charts.
Bog roll back on the shelves though.

I understand that but surely they could mass manufacture basic ones and get people used to wearing them

The summer should have a positive effect on reducing numbers

We even had Hancock telling NHS staff to ease up on the use of PPE today.

Tell us that quote so we can understand it fully ?

Just let him c+p it from..............................the Guardian

If you had watched the briefing, you'd already know.
Instead, you wish to remain oblivious to facts.

Well give a us a link to the briefing ffs ?

.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bThgg_U2h7A

You do know how the internet works, don't you ?

Horrible stats from Belgium as well.

goosebump working himself into a foaming frenzy

a pathetic individual

Most people that have died were very close to death already, most of these figures are disingenuous, there's also been very loose reporting from TV, the word from often used in place of with.

How many is most?
How close is close to death?
And where is your evidence ?

I am awfully sorry but what on earth do you know about this virus.   What on earth do you know about anything.?

which department of communicable diseases do you belong to

I know i was in HK when it killed 80,000 in the uk

I dodged a bullet there.

Anyone number crunching using estimated//dishonest/erroneous numbers is highly unlikely to come up with anywhere near the correct answer, come the hindsight.

1957  33,000 killed by asian flu

200,000 in uk in 1946

anyone asking where it all came from?

was goosebumps  ready and prepared for this latest one?

he seems to know or pretend to know ahead of all this

or does he get led by the nose from guardian and bbc central?

My projection is now at 33.3 million

We are losing half the country

God help us

Sky News have the body bags ready

how many people have actually died from this virus and not underling symptoms talk about fake news?

sorry ss  you are a complete idiot

it is much worse

it is 34 million

Macarany we dunno, all we know is sky news are getting the coffins and body bags ready round the back

Moisok now now, the illiminati wont like that, they always like to code their media work

At this rate though I'm finding it hard to know where the other 33.29 million is coming from

We are well into April and still way behind the flu ball park, someone needs to be doing some serious over time with that modelling computer

apologies SS   I know my time is numbered but like Private Baldrick - if I hold the .303 bullet with MY NAME on it  they will not get me!!

1600 plus people die every day in the uk how many people have actually died of this virus I smell bull sh1t

2500 is the average maca

We are actually below the average because of the virus

corona virus is actually saving lives

you cannot go round saying that macarony  - it does not fit the narrative - have you had the clap by the way?

borris got it

900+ today, we hitting peak numbers now and its getting serious, Dr "wicked witch" Fauci said so

Just wait until it blows past 950, we'll be having emergency broadcasts about staying indoors episode 400

"stay home, protect the NHS, save lives"

I think that literally is self explanatory

Who else thinks this could be a social experiment?

Mind you Sky are convinced millions are being buried in secret in NYC... remember when it was us "conspiracy theorists" that were the wack jobs?

So just how mant people have died because of this virus with no underliying symptoms?

About 20 maca

And most of them were in hospital at the time

Tara Jane Langston was in because of it 6 months ago, although she only found out when her cheque landed on the mat

98% have underlying heath issues, as widely reported, that means they were close to the end of their lives as most were elderly.

How many young people are dying with no underlying health issues - so few that when it happens it makes the news, though that's before a post mortem is even performed.

If this virus was truly deadly where anyone who caught it would die from it, we'd be in Total and complete lockdown like it was the Plague, yet everyone's allowed out to exercise, go shopping, work if you're either an essential worker or not (if they can't work from home), children of key workers also attending school.

As more people have stayed home however than usual, have you thought about the health consequences of that, domestic abuse rates have gone up by  25%, Victoria Derbyshire wrote the number on her hand without saying a word to help victims, older people with no underlying health issues at home and incredibly lonely, people with mental health issues would have had them exasperated  https://qz.com/1828589/italys-coronavirus-lockdown-is-taking-its-toll-on-men... research also showed after the 2008 crash suicide rates increased by 10,000
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-lockdown-may-cost-young-lives-ov...

20 how many of them were a nut allergy ha ha

About 0.2% and out of those most of them were actually in hospital because of accidents

I really do think people are smelling a rat with it all, but let them carry on with it

We see where it takes us, can't wait to see how they spin their way out of it, I'm sure its going to be a doozy

joking apart there were two poor wives left with  dependent children   with the guys dying of co19 with no underlying etc

very very sad imagine to be left like that  - not good

one is pictured with rings of fat holding up a pint

and the othe (no booze) but obviously very overweight

just saying

what annoys me is why people go along with this midddle class hysterical  bull sh1t and why do they vote for these R soles?

Feckhas Dorris died moisok?

Yesterday sky even owned up to the numbers not being 24 hour death stats ffs

only 140 of them were in the previous 24 hours, and all of them were elderly or with underlying health conditions

We really are seeing an attempted take over and its so pathetically botched its quite entertaining viewing, bringing in idiots to sell it like Tara Jane Langston just about sums this whole charade up

Just look at the Americans, one telling us its bathrooms causing it, we need to close all the bathrooms down

She's just lost her daughter and she's more interested in the go fund me page and the removing of public rest rooms

the important thing is I ain't got it and my merc needs to go in for service before I go on my holidays

one needs to get a proper perspective on these things

do you think a vicious opposite  the  narrative go fund me campaign might work

yah know  - fk the masks for the nhs and all that

coz clearly no one is concerned about these poor old underpaid mugs being exposed to failing 80 year olds

would you go into work in a bin bag and face all this crap and then have your job threatened if you said owt about it

Average age in Italy for eg of those that died was 79.5 years old but of course if any government does nothing it is seen to be a murdering bunch of uncaring butchers so once one nation goes into lockdown the rest follow. The economic consequences are likely to kill just as many but of course this will all be staggered over time which is infinitely more preferable to any government

Apr 10, 2020 -- 11:04PM, SontaranStratagem wrote:

900+ today, we hitting peak numbers now and its getting serious, Dr "wicked witch" Fauci said so Just wait until it blows past 950, we'll be having emergency broadcasts about staying indoors episode 400 "stay home, protect the NHS, save lives" I think that literally is self explanatory Who else thinks this could be a social experiment? Mind you Sky are convinced millions are being buried in secret in NYC... remember when it was us "conspiracy theorists" that were the wack jobs?

I thought you had changed your mind and the virus was real encouraging people to stay in as you said you had it

Wolf the virus is real

But that's the joke

"asymptomatic" we are always that until we are sick

Everyone has this virus

And I do mean everyone, the whole world has it

there is one forumite on here who is in favour of depopulating the uk

you reddit here first

Fook talking about the figures on the virus for one minute, how are the figures on domestic abuse going up supposed to be correct??? If these poor people couldn't phone, text, e-mail for help a month ago when presumably they had a degree of breathing space, how the fook are they managing it with their tormentors locked up with them all day and night?

Apr 8, 2020 -- 3:55PM, Angoose wrote:

If you look at the three data points provided i.e. mean. lower, and upper, the UK has by far the largest spread.In the absence of an explanation, perhaps the lower and mean figures are better indicators.

I'd imagine the spread is large because, unlike other countries,your government encouraged the spread initially and the virus spreads out of control very rapidly, you don't test nearly as much per capita as the likes of Spain, Italy, much denser population (England only), only reporting hospital deaths and health service predicted to be massively overwhelmed.

Encouraging the spread and lack of testing means it is much harder to gauge where the UK is and the worst case scenario has to be worse than France, Italy, Spain right now. But these figures change massively on a daily basis.

Before releasing the lock down they need to know for a FACT how many have HAD the illness, that way they will know how many potential VICTIMS are being released back into circulation and it looks like we are way away from anti body tests being rolled out across the nation, if the number that have had it is way fewer than hoped for then we are heading for disaster.

The curve is flattening at the moment as the lock down measures begin to kick in, but it only means something when the curve is still flattening once everything is back to normal and it is shown that the virus is negligible once it has access to all.

Talk of the curve flattening at the moment could be the biggest false positive of all.

meanwhile in Sweden curve flattening still means women wanting to tone up for summer.

When we hear of deaths of people with underlying conditions, where is it stated that these underlying conditions are conditions that render that person half dead to begin with?

People are just assuming that because it suits a certain narrative when in reality it could be any underlying condition.

The 1.5 million high risk are for the most part all locked up, certainly no-one is going to believe they are all the victims that have died, so you can assume that the people that have died are general people with general conditions.

They want everybody exposed (apart from the fogies) but in an orderly fashion
That way you don't have to wait for a cure

The number of deaths and how we attribute them is a red herring

Got to think that Cheltenham festival was absolutely dripping with Chinese flu
However it might eventually mean our curve drops a lot quicker

Apr 11, 2020 -- 12:31AM, duffy wrote:

When we hear of deaths of people with underlying conditions, where is it stated that these underlying conditions are conditions that render that person half dead to begin with?People are just assuming that because it suits a certain narrative when in reality it could be any underlying condition.The 1.5 million high risk are for the most part all locked up, certainly no-one is going to believe they are all the victims that have died, so you can assume that the people that have died are general people with general conditions.

It's disingenuous to say "they would have died soon anyway"
What is soon??

On a separate note when somebody has AIDS but dies of pneumonia, their DC will say AIDS.

If you are admitted to hospital and you test positive for corona virus
Then you die from a symptom of corona virus, I think it's fair enough to say that's what killed you

I think Dirty Di has had a few of her fat fingers in these computations

The more I read about this, I reckon a massive number of people might have already been infected and not realised.  Apart from NHS staff (quite rightly of course), the majority of tests are only being carried out on people who are being admitted to hospital (for both COVID and non-COVID symptoms) or attending A&E. Kenny Dalglish is a prime example of this and hasn't shown any obvious COVID symptons, but has tested positive, even though he is in hospital for an infection.  It makes me wonder how many other people would test positive if there were enough testing kits.  The data is totally distorted due to the lack of mass testing.  If everybody had been tested we would probably discover a much higher percentage of the population has been (or is) infected than we realised.  This would then give us a true picture of the mortality rate, which would likely be much lower than is being publicised.  I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of this, but if the true mortality rate was known, we might view this in a completely different way.  As it stands, the official statistics say that roughly 74,000 have tested positive, of which 9,000 have sadly passed away. That is a mortality rate of about 12%.  The true number of positive tests (if we had enough testing equipment) could easily be double that, which would mean a mortality rate of only 6%.

The mortality rate is not the issue, it never is in a pandemic. The overwhelming of hospitals is the issue and the UK isn't there yet but it is expected to be in a week. When that happens the mortality rate jumps to a much higher level. That is what the lockdown is for, to minimise the length of time that goes on for, not because the disease is particularly deadly like Ebola, because it kills a lot more at a much higher rate when they can't get treatment.

The mortality rate could be below 1% for all we know. But because it can potentially infect the entire population rapidly over a short period, it has the potential to overwhelm the hospitals.

At this point the only relevance of a lot of people having been infected is that they might be immune and lockdown can be released earlier than expected, not the death rate. But nobody has even started testing for that.

Death rate is largely irrelevant to the current situation, not that there is any accurate data on it.

If the real figures are released next week we are going to see over a 1,000 deaths everyday with all the backlogue fro resthomes etc,certainly won't be goig back in may,maybe looking at june.

"The mortality rate could be below 1% for all we know"

The death rate in Iceland is currently under 0.5% and they have the most comprehensive testing of anywhere in the world, and even they are going to miss a huge percentage. It's a question of balancing that against the number of people currently positive who will end up dying.  But personally I would be amazed if the death rate is over 1%. Could be a lot less than 1%.

I've always maintained that deaths as a result of the economic restricions on the world's economy will dwarf the number of deaths from the virus.

We are going about it the right way, with things like this.....

This is my e-mail to all local radio stations, the police, and my MP.....
(I only picked up on this last night, so too late to wrangle with SDC now)



Good day,

I am totally astonished and angry to read this from Selby District Council!

"Markets Update"

"Both the Monday Market and monthly Farmers Market will be open as normal. We are proactively managing the markets layouts to provide as much space between stalls, traders and the public. We are following Government guidelines and in contact with the National Association of British Markets to get the most up to date guidance to ensure the safety of the traders and the public".

This breeches every single instruction from central government!

Stay at home to stop coronavirus spreading
Everyone must stay at home to help stop the spread of coronavirus.

"You should only leave your home for very limited purposes:

Shopping for basic necessities, for example food and medicine, which must be as infrequent as possible

One form of exercise a day, for example a run, walk, or cycle – alone or with members of your household

Any medical need, including to donate blood, avoid or escape risk of injury or harm, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person

Travelling for work purposes, but only where you cannot work from home

Stay 2ms apart".....

Shops, restaurants and all recreational facilities are all closed...

The Lake District is closed!!

"Coronavirus: UK bans gatherings of more than two people, Boris Johnson announces"

I do not frequent this market as a regular occurence, but I'm going to suggest that there must be circa 300 to500 people there at any one time, and with visitors 'rotating' throughout the day!
Perhaps 1,000 or more visitors!

They, and the traders will come from a very wide area, and the risk of infection is massive!

What is the potential likelihood of at least one person carrying the infection?

I would suggest it is very high, and I would also suggest that the possibility is that this one stupid event could cost hundreds of lives!

Unfortunately I only picked up on this yesterday, so too late to wrangle with SDC, but I will be submitting this to every radio station and, for what it may be worth, the police, and I would urge you to please broadcast to your listeners that they must not attend!

Best regards,

......(resident of Gateforth, Selby)


nb Chit Chatters...my name is not withheld

Gigg is loving this he even admitted as much on the horse racing forum

I personally am starting to question if they're even testing anyone, no one within 3 mile of me has been tested and they don't of anyone who has been tested

The odd one is convinced they've had it but most haven't even had 1 symptom in weeks

My neighbour had a mighty cough for about 3 weeks but that's cleared up and he's back fixing up his car on the driveway

unbelievable and frightening

Agree the opening article is unbelievable.  That's because it's bollox.

In terms of death per million, in the market without San Marino, I'd say Belgium looks like being the hardest hit.  Today's death figures in Belgium translate to the worst daily figure of any major country in Europe.  The death rate in San Marino is over 0.1% of the population.  If we say that up to half the population of San Marino have been infected, and there will be more deaths, that would mean a lowest death rate estimate of 0.25%

how do you get to half the population of san marino has been infected ???

Spain down to 272 new deaths today, that is encouraging (although I'm not sure if they update it every 2 hours or whatever, or if it is a final figure for the day) On the other hand, Italy's daily mortality figures are still remaiming high. Not sure whether to be optimistic or not, tbh.

Spain does a morning update followed by a late update, not done yet.

A level headed explanation of what has happened, why there should be no panic, why the stats you read and quote are so wrong.
You've spent hours watching the news bs and checking the number of deaths on worldometers, take 30 minutes to watch a clear breakdown of the illness and the madness surrounding it, no conspiracy theory bs.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYWWvSTQkNI

I said up to half Eric. It's an arbitary figure I based on their death rate and figures from Iceland.

I sent an email to the BBC and Sky News a week or so ago suggesting it as being the best sample for an early comprehensive antibody test.

Another "not much worse than the flu" merchant.

Runs a runs a private website about narcissistic personality disorder which is described as "a personality disorder characterized by a long-term pattern of exaggerated feelings of self-importance, an excessive need for admiration, and a lack of empathy toward other people".

Does he run the website to present himself as an extreme sufferer of narcissistic personality disorder

San Marino - population 33,931
35 reported COVID-19 deaths, 356 reported cases.

I haven't listened to the guy for long enough to make a fair assessment of what he is saying. But it's clear that most of the 800 or so comments are from people for whom he is telling the truth, or at least the truth as they want it to be.

When the figures banded about are so meaningless, when testing isn't anywhere close to comprehensive, it's a question of taking the best data there is.  Which imo is The Diamond Princess and Iceland.  That's how I don't see a death rate above 1%.  The death figures from the likes of Bergamo and San Marino suggest to me the infection rate from those areas is huge.

Maybe you should watch it all before commenting, if you dared to check, you'd know he is highly qualified to give his opinion and cites many other experts.  But if you rely on Sky news to make your mind up for you, that's your bag I guess.

There are dozens of countries in the developing world where the figures are more than misleading, because they don't have the capacity to carry out testing in any accurate way. But the figures for Western and Northern Europe and North America should be much more reliable. You would hope so, anyway.

But if you rely on Sky news to make your mind up for you, that's your bag I guess.

I've never watched Sky News in my life. I'm not saying the guy isn't making some valid points, I'm just saying that he has a following who will believe anything he says.

He has zero medical qualifications.

In Israel in 1995 he was found guilty on three counts of securities fraud along with two other men, Nissim Avioz and Dov Landau. He was sentenced to 18 months' imprisonment and fined 50,000 shekels (about $14,000), while the company was fined 100,000 shekels.

In 1996, as a condition of parole, he agreed to a mental health evaluation, which noted various personality disorders.

According to Vaknin, "I was borderline schizoid, but the most dominant was NPD," and on this occasion he accepted the diagnosis, because, he wrote, "it was a relief to know what I had."

Yes, just the chap to provide “the truth”.

yes, I've just read some stuff about him. And, I'm afraid I'll have to take back some of my fair and reasonable comments about him. The guy is clearly a nutjob.

Apr 11, 2020 -- 8:45PM, Des Pond wrote:

yes, I've just read some stuff about him. And, I'm afraid I'll have to take back some of my fair and reasonable comments about him. The guy is clearly a nutjob.

Lol

I wouldn't bother watching any YT clips about the virus myself.  It's not where meaningful articles or data will be posted.

He sounds ok to me from his wikipedia, in his field of expertise. Maybe not exactly highly qualified to overrule a virologist though.

I see the archbishop has jumped on the bandwagon
We need a resurrection of life
Chucked in with plenty of emotional words
Absolute power packed bollux

Sort out the PPE for everyone ffs