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http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/correction-uncertainty-intervals-cumulative-covid-19-death-forecasts-europe
Possibly 219,211 with France the next at only 27,727
Possibly 219,211 with France the next at only 27,727
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Thanks Bojo.
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UK has many people living relatively closer than France which is a huge country.
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UK has many people living relatively closer than France which is a huge country.
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There seems a big difference between the UK and rest of Europe. A typo I would hope.
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219,211
 We are not going to all survive on here are we  |
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A typo I would hope. so do I HGS
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If you look at the three data points provided i.e. mean. lower, and upper, the UK has by far the largest spread.
In the absence of an explanation, perhaps the lower and mean figures are better indicators. |
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If, of course, you wish to place any significance on this model at all.
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that's the upper projection, the most extreme example. take these figures with a pinch of salt, anyway. maybe the UK just has more sick people anyway than all of these countries, or at least relative to their population size.
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On the other hand South Korea and japan are more population dense than Blighty and have far fewer deaths per million
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Belgium another population dense country suffering. New York State
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Feck the women and children.
Hoist that boat up! I'm off! |
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Their estimate for Spain is 19,209. Given they have 14,555 at the last count and they have had over 600 every day for the past 2 weeks they will need a miracle to end up with < 20,000. Maybe they need to have another guess
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They've given an upper estimate of 30,616.
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Their estimate (or as they say the “mean” or likely number of potential deaths) is 19,209 with confidence interval of 14,605 to 30,616
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Deaths from people testing positive from covid 19.
Separating the wood from the trees not easy... |
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Haven't we been told all week the "peak" is the weekend?
If there is any truth in that there is a hope that 220,000 figure is well out,the lockdown in theory ought to at least level off numbers very soon. It is worrying that Italy had a lockdown for a fair bit longer and still hasn't really fallen though. Terrible times. |
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A couple who live near me both have it. How many people had they been in close contact with up to 2 days before they developed symptoms? Nobody was interested in finding out, so those people don't self-isolate and don't get tested. And that, in a nutshell, is why the UK will have the most deaths in Europe. The simple message for all countries was "test, test, test"
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You pile millions of people into a few square miles , its very hard for them not to catch it , We may see an Exodus from many of our Major Cities
Once this is all over , with Advances in Tech the need to be attending offices will diminish .. There will be many ,many changes in the years to come hopefully for the good.. |
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My mate in Londons ,Neighbours Die , Husband was taken on Friday , They returned Monday for His wife no news , they have 2 children ...
Only recently their children were throwing balls back and forth over the garden fence |
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The most important phrases are ....
An unintentional upload error to our data visualization tool Specifically, the error was associated with the range of possible numbers IHME regrets the data upload error. Upcoming forecasts will reflect our corrected approach can of worms imvho |
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I wouldn't take any notice of these figures. got Belgium in for a low mark of 2024. they've already gone past that
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No doubt the bbc will print this as gospel along the results from China.
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SO do you believe them, yes or no ?
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Punter knows the Numbers His Comrades in Beijing update him
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Projected figure always subject to criteria. It's mainly useless and inaccurate as it depends on so many variable factor, and possibly time too.
Only an entity or individual wanting to be noticed or doing a spot of self-promotion for importance. |
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Why - on this Table of projection is ...
ITALY - HIGHER estimate virtually the SAME as LOWER projection SPAIN - HIGHER approx DOUBLE the LOWER FRANCE - HIGHER approx TREBLE the LOWER GERMANY - HIGHER approx 12 TIMES the LOWER UK - HIGHER approx 15 TIMES the LOWER ------------- If the Author was a BACKER on Betfair ... I think there would be a LOT us LAYERS |
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Absolute bowlux
Designed to put the sheets up you |
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Italy has massively tailed off recently, we are way above them, easily 100,000, could be a lot more than that, 500,000 not out the question
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typo or b0llox, take your pick.
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Probably not a typo , but imo the number is bollox . If there are 220k deaths here and only 28k in France then it'll probably be the greatest Government catastrophe in the last 2000 years...and I'm not buying it.
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Only time will tell. Let the politicians, government advisors and NHS staff to do their job. If one cannot or unwilling to help just let the people who are, can and tasked with it to get on with it.
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the central prediction of this lot was about 66,000 today it is down to 37,500.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom |
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They are also projecting 20,333 for Italy by August 4.
Yet the current total sits at 18,849, the death rate for completed cases is 38%, and there are 98,273 active cases. I'm afraid I simply cannot believe that only a further 1,484 deaths will be recorded between now and then. In the last ten days, Italy has recorded 6,421 deaths or 642 per day. It's likely that there will be at least 1,000 unrecorded deaths, all awaiting the completion of the necessary admin process prior to be added to the figures. |
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lacking credibility somewhat, our number down by 40% in only a couple of days.
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i put it up as it makes our situation look better, their previous estimate looks more like a guess and not a very good one. the longer this goes on the less bad economists look
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About as accurate as WASP in cricket.
The people punching the numbers into these projections are fùckwits They must be the same numbskulls who keep predicting the end of the world in 30 days re climate change |