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I haven't been around these parts recently and i'm sure this has perspective has already been done to death but this makes absolute sense ...
‘Going outdoors is what stops every respiratory disease’
A veteran scholar of epidemiology has warned that the ongoing lockdowns throughout the United States and the rest of the world are almost certainly just prolonging the coronavirus outbreak rather than doing anything to truly mitigate it.
Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City, said in an interview with the Press and the Public Project that the coronavirus could be “exterminated” if we permitted most people to lead normal lives and sheltered the most vulnerable parts of society until the danger had passed.
“[W]hat people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary,” he said.
“With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated,” he added.
Wittkowski argued that the standard cycle of respiratory diseases is a two-week outbreak, including a peak, after which “it’s gone.” He pointed out that even in a regime of “social distancing,” the virus will still find ways to spread, just more slowly:
You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.
Asked about Anthony Fauci, the White House medical expert who for weeks has been predicting significant numbers of COVID-19 deaths in America as well as major ongoing disruptions to daily life possibly for years, Wittkowski replied: “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
Video interview which expands his argument...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg
‘Going outdoors is what stops every respiratory disease’
A veteran scholar of epidemiology has warned that the ongoing lockdowns throughout the United States and the rest of the world are almost certainly just prolonging the coronavirus outbreak rather than doing anything to truly mitigate it.
Knut Wittkowski, previously the longtime head of the Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at the Rockefeller University in New York City, said in an interview with the Press and the Public Project that the coronavirus could be “exterminated” if we permitted most people to lead normal lives and sheltered the most vulnerable parts of society until the danger had passed.
“[W]hat people are trying to do is flatten the curve. I don’t really know why. But, what happens is if you flatten the curve, you also prolong, to widen it, and it takes more time. And I don’t see a good reason for a respiratory disease to stay in the population longer than necessary,” he said.
“With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated,” he added.
Wittkowski argued that the standard cycle of respiratory diseases is a two-week outbreak, including a peak, after which “it’s gone.” He pointed out that even in a regime of “social distancing,” the virus will still find ways to spread, just more slowly:
You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.
Asked about Anthony Fauci, the White House medical expert who for weeks has been predicting significant numbers of COVID-19 deaths in America as well as major ongoing disruptions to daily life possibly for years, Wittkowski replied: “Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
www.thecollegefix.com/epidemiologist-coronavirus-could-be-exterminated-if-lockdowns-were-lifted/
Video interview which expands his argument...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg
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This may work if the health services could cope. From the pieces I have read it seems most of us will have to get this and hope for the best.
We will continue to see differences of opinion amongst the medical and scientific community on this topic, as you do on almost any other topic.
The general principle that he progress is largely accepted i.e. you ultimately require the general population to develop immunity, either through having contracted the virus or through a vaccine.
Where the differences arise is in how best to get to that required outcome, the severity of this particular virus appears to require abnormally high numbers of individuals to simultaneously be given medical attention.
Do you allow the outbreak to overrun the ability of the health care system to cope with the volume of individuals requiring care, or do you attempt to limit the volume to manageable numbers ?
Most governments have opted to manage the volume.
The general principle that he progress is largely accepted i.e. you ultimately require the general population to develop immunity, either through having contracted the virus or through a vaccine.
Where the differences arise is in how best to get to that required outcome, the severity of this particular virus appears to require abnormally high numbers of individuals to simultaneously be given medical attention.
Do you allow the outbreak to overrun the ability of the health care system to cope with the volume of individuals requiring care, or do you attempt to limit the volume to manageable numbers ?
Most governments have opted to manage the volume.
“Well, I’m not paid by the government, so I’m entitled to actually do science.”
Mic drop....
Mic drop....
Isn't the reason that Trump reluctantly changed his strategy was because the non-lockdown model would result in 3milion or so deaths.
With lockdown he was told would be 100-200k
If USA are prepared to accept 3m deaths then fair enough the others can pretty much carry on as normal.
With lockdown he was told would be 100-200k
If USA are prepared to accept 3m deaths then fair enough the others can pretty much carry on as normal.
As Angoose says we are probably moving in the direction of the "herd basis long term" but the pandemic jumped on us and most Health Systems would have been unable to cope if we allowed the vulnerable to contract the disease at the same time ... the lockdown is a way of spreading the time the virus works through the population
For the purposes of elections which most politicians look at & consider .. the loss of hundreds of thousands of the population or more in a short period is not a vote winner!
For the purposes of elections which most politicians look at & consider .. the loss of hundreds of thousands of the population or more in a short period is not a vote winner!
As a tabloid headline writer I think he needs to get the sack
"With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. "
But that's exactly what our experts said weeks ago, it's what others have said including top guys with experience in disease eradication, it's common sense something like that has to happen unless there is some major game changer (otherwise we'll be in lockdown forever), but when the tories apparently repeated what experts had already said, the childish leftist hate mongers threw the rattle half way to Berlin and said this was an evil plan invented by uncaring tories to kill loads of us, not them following the best expert advice they had at the time.
As you know, Tories aren't human, they are pure evil, so anything they say must come from evil. As we read on here all day from the ****ing lobotomised. "Don't shoot the messenger - unless he's a Tory", is I believe the "thinking".
Lockdown is to "flatten the curve" blah blah.
My fear is how long immunity lasts. Expert on radio yesterday said it could be long or just a short time. We don't know. (I'm surprised it varies so much but apparently it does). If it's short, we might be fecked anyway you'd think as it goes round and round and round and round and.... that scares me. Great if we get drugs to cure it buy we've never managed that with Flu. Perhaps we'll just have this coming in waves like Flu for years now :(
But that's exactly what our experts said weeks ago, it's what others have said including top guys with experience in disease eradication, it's common sense something like that has to happen unless there is some major game changer (otherwise we'll be in lockdown forever), but when the tories apparently repeated what experts had already said, the childish leftist hate mongers threw the rattle half way to Berlin and said this was an evil plan invented by uncaring tories to kill loads of us, not them following the best expert advice they had at the time.
As you know, Tories aren't human, they are pure evil, so anything they say must come from evil. As we read on here all day from the ****ing lobotomised. "Don't shoot the messenger - unless he's a Tory", is I believe the "thinking".
Lockdown is to "flatten the curve" blah blah.
My fear is how long immunity lasts. Expert on radio yesterday said it could be long or just a short time. We don't know. (I'm surprised it varies so much but apparently it does). If it's short, we might be fecked anyway you'd think as it goes round and round and round and round and.... that scares me. Great if we get drugs to cure it buy we've never managed that with Flu. Perhaps we'll just have this coming in waves like Flu for years now :(
Even now, there is more that is unknown about this virus than is known.
This will not change any time soon.
This will not change any time soon.
It's all going to pot. The washing machine on spin just shook the kitchen so much my radio walked by itself and crashed onto the floor. Should I blame Corona or 5G? 
Does the medical intervention currently available make any real difference to fatality rates? There appears to be plenty of testimony from those on the front line that once hospitalisation occurs survivability is chiefly a matter of genetics/pre existing conditions.
If this is the case then spreading inevitable deaths over a longer period serves no function.
Furthermore, lockdown can only serve to stress and depress the immunity of those thus far unexposed leading to increased deaths in the future?
Not to mention the untold hardship and deaths for decades to come linked to tanking the economy?
If this is the case then spreading inevitable deaths over a longer period serves no function.
Furthermore, lockdown can only serve to stress and depress the immunity of those thus far unexposed leading to increased deaths in the future?
Not to mention the untold hardship and deaths for decades to come linked to tanking the economy?
"Not to mention the untold hardship and deaths for decades to come linked to tanking the economy?"
I'm beginning to get fecked off with being locked down, now that the weather is turning.
And I've not lost a business or a job. The people out there who've put their heart and soul into starting or building a business and now have lost it, I feel utterly gutted for them. Or those supporting a family who've lost jobs. I get annoyed when people suggest protecting the economy is somehow irrelevant and selfish and "tory", it's a very real HUGE part of people's lives. If it wasn't, then we'll just have 10 million unemployed here then and have the 30s worldwide on steroids.
Can't see how that much lead to issues...
I'm beginning to get fecked off with being locked down, now that the weather is turning.
And I've not lost a business or a job. The people out there who've put their heart and soul into starting or building a business and now have lost it, I feel utterly gutted for them. Or those supporting a family who've lost jobs. I get annoyed when people suggest protecting the economy is somehow irrelevant and selfish and "tory", it's a very real HUGE part of people's lives. If it wasn't, then we'll just have 10 million unemployed here then and have the 30s worldwide on steroids.
Can't see how that much lead to issues...
Can't put a price on life? we will soon see.
The Economy v Casualties equation will eventually be forced on them.
The Economy v Casualties equation will eventually be forced on them.
He is trying to wake people up. Dont bother mate they are throughly indoctrinated and are sleepwalking their way into serfdom and slavery. What was that Benjamin Franklin quote those who give up Essential Liberty for a little temporary Safety will have neither Liberty or Safety. Something like that.
It's all about achieving an equilibrium, never an easy task at the best of times.
Here's a theory
people get mucus buildup? don't you need to be moving around to get it up if the body produces to much of it? you need to blow it up and cough it out, if you're stuck in a bed and can't move because of being placed into an induced coma... how are you going to get the fluid up?
Are these nurses thick?
people get mucus buildup? don't you need to be moving around to get it up if the body produces to much of it? you need to blow it up and cough it out, if you're stuck in a bed and can't move because of being placed into an induced coma... how are you going to get the fluid up?
Are these nurses thick?
The body goes a bit bats*it crazy with the mucus build up sometimes, alerts the brain to help out and get it up 
You can't do that in a coma, and they say they have things in place to get up fluids but nah, about 50% of it gets removed and not all of it can be gotten up as you need to be moving and using the lungs to get it up entirely
So they are putting you at massive risk by not allowing you to move around, and if that's the case they actually murdering some people, ok manslaughter but its still murder in my eyes
You can't do that in a coma, and they say they have things in place to get up fluids but nah, about 50% of it gets removed and not all of it can be gotten up as you need to be moving and using the lungs to get it up entirely
So they are putting you at massive risk by not allowing you to move around, and if that's the case they actually murdering some people, ok manslaughter but its still murder in my eyes
So when you hear your little granny has taken "a turn for the worse" you'll know what they mean, placing the old bugger onto a bed and not allowing her to move around will have done for her
the body is a magical piece of machinery, nothing is more powerful than a sneeze or a cough, trying blowing half a pint of fluid up in one go eh?
That's how much the body will create a day when fighting infection, it does require a little help from the brain though, can't do it all by itself can it.
the body is a magical piece of machinery, nothing is more powerful than a sneeze or a cough, trying blowing half a pint of fluid up in one go eh?
That's how much the body will create a day when fighting infection, it does require a little help from the brain though, can't do it all by itself can it.
Questions to the Professor eg:-
1) No 2 viruses behaviour in an identical manner. Agree?
2) Little was known of Covid-19 at the outset. Agree?
3) Wuhan (China) did exactly that eg allowing infectors to mingle/travel. As such, the present consequences to the rest of the world. Agree?
4) How can the health service of every country cope given (1) and (2)?
5) What would be the consequences to the world population be, if wrong?
I'd rather take a conservative but prudent approach for Covid-19.
1) No 2 viruses behaviour in an identical manner. Agree?
2) Little was known of Covid-19 at the outset. Agree?
3) Wuhan (China) did exactly that eg allowing infectors to mingle/travel. As such, the present consequences to the rest of the world. Agree?
4) How can the health service of every country cope given (1) and (2)?
5) What would be the consequences to the world population be, if wrong?
I'd rather take a conservative but prudent approach for Covid-19.
its a trade off innit, between two or three ideas.
the model feeds in known data and gives us the best course for the best out come
if we all got it tomorrow the virus would be gone in a month unless it mutated.
so would 100 million folk that it killed.
the model feeds in known data and gives us the best course for the best out come
if we all got it tomorrow the virus would be gone in a month unless it mutated.
so would 100 million folk that it killed.
That old herd immunity chestnut is ok, but million will die to achieve it.
It is the scientific equivalent to "I'm alright, Jack".
It is the scientific equivalent to "I'm alright, Jack".
The dinosaurs thought that it would be a good idea to pursue a herd immunity strategy 
If it was such good sense someone would be listening to him.
As it is he has no direct responsibility for saving lives and can say what he likes to attract attention.
The countries who appear to be turning a corner have had more severe lockdown measures than the UK. The problem we have here is too many people who can't cope with the measures so they dredge up this kind of thing.
As it is he has no direct responsibility for saving lives and can say what he likes to attract attention.
The countries who appear to be turning a corner have had more severe lockdown measures than the UK. The problem we have here is too many people who can't cope with the measures so they dredge up this kind of thing.
he is right that it would be over quicker.
the government should have allowed single folk to self isolate but visit a friend also self isolation to break up the boredom.
we can go shopping, and folk can work in shops, schools, ...and hospitals.
ambulance workers must be in a constant state of shock, never knowing what to expect
bless all the workers ....!
we can go shopping, and folk can work in shops, schools, ...and hospitals.
ambulance workers must be in a constant state of shock, never knowing what to expect
bless all the workers ....!
Too many people on here who want to stay at home in their underpants on 80% wages imo.
Loving it
Poor old Professor, wasting his time on old chestnuts.
Loving it
Poor old Professor, wasting his time on old chestnuts.
The Professor meant well however, he's not elected and does not have responsibility for the number of new Covid-19 cases and deaths of victims unlike elected politicians and appointed team of experts. Nevertheless, I'd not want him as my clinician
Agree with FIRE many don't leave the house anyway , the thought of having a wash creates a panic attack
The Professor could be deemed to behave like some horse racing tipsters advocating this, that and the other selections without any personal financial loss/risk attached.
impossible123
08 Apr 20 13:39
Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 15,399 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Questions to the Professor eg:-
1) No 2 viruses behaviour in an identical manner. Agree?
2) Little was known of Covid-19 at the outset. Agree?
3) Wuhan (China) did exactly that eg allowing infectors to mingle/travel. As such, the present consequences to the rest of the world. Agree?
4) How can the health service of every country cope given (1) and (2)?
5) What would be the consequences to the world population be, if wrong?
^
Spread to the rest of the world but barely any deaths in the rest of China... explain.
08 Apr 20 13:39
Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 15,399 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Questions to the Professor eg:-
1) No 2 viruses behaviour in an identical manner. Agree?
2) Little was known of Covid-19 at the outset. Agree?
3) Wuhan (China) did exactly that eg allowing infectors to mingle/travel. As such, the present consequences to the rest of the world. Agree?
4) How can the health service of every country cope given (1) and (2)?
5) What would be the consequences to the world population be, if wrong?
^
Spread to the rest of the world but barely any deaths in the rest of China... explain.
The modelling for herd immunity forecast upto 500k deaths in UK but as we now know the vast majority of those deaths would be the elderly, many of whom already have life threatening illness, is killing the economy, and the risks that poses for the younger generation, really worth it to add a few more months/ years to their lives? BTW I'm one of the elderly.
So many unknowns in all of this and likely that individual values will change as a result of this, at least on a temporary basis.
China? The government of pathological liars!
Wuhan is an industrial town with lots of comings and goings because of its geography. It's also the gateway to many other parts of China it being a major transportation hub.
The 1st British subject to contract Covid-19 in the world was at Wuhan. He told BBC News today he contracted the virus as early as late November 2019; the young Chinese doctor who the Chinese government tried to silence warned his colleagues and the world in late Dec about the virus - a full month later. Wuhan's residents and visitors (mainly Chinese) were allowed to travel freely to other parts of the world eg neighbouring SEA, Europe, America
But, the rest of the work only found out during.or just prior the Chinese New Year on 25th Jan 2020 about the seriousness of the virus now renamed Covid-19 when Wuhan was in "lockdown" - a full 2 months later.
Wuhan is an industrial town with lots of comings and goings because of its geography. It's also the gateway to many other parts of China it being a major transportation hub.
The 1st British subject to contract Covid-19 in the world was at Wuhan. He told BBC News today he contracted the virus as early as late November 2019; the young Chinese doctor who the Chinese government tried to silence warned his colleagues and the world in late Dec about the virus - a full month later. Wuhan's residents and visitors (mainly Chinese) were allowed to travel freely to other parts of the world eg neighbouring SEA, Europe, America
But, the rest of the work only found out during.or just prior the Chinese New Year on 25th Jan 2020 about the seriousness of the virus now renamed Covid-19 when Wuhan was in "lockdown" - a full 2 months later.
The modelling for herd immunity forecast upto 500k deaths in UK but as we now know the vast majority of those deaths would be the elderly, many of whom already have life threatening illness, is killing the economy, and the risks that poses for the younger generation, really worth it to add a few more months/ years to their lives? BTW I'm one of the elderly.
My argument against that is if you believe in human life and people for the most part as being civilised which sets us apart then you look after the frail and the elderly irrespective of the cost ... take that way and think of everything in terms of monetary value then there is no such thing as society and its a free for all
Where would politicians / those in charge draw the line in times of crisis - Do you then say after 65 (an arbitary figure) you are no longer entitled to use the NHS as you are a burden on the use of medical staff & facilities because of cost & resources ... not worth thinking about
My argument against that is if you believe in human life and people for the most part as being civilised which sets us apart then you look after the frail and the elderly irrespective of the cost ... take that way and think of everything in terms of monetary value then there is no such thing as society and its a free for all
Where would politicians / those in charge draw the line in times of crisis - Do you then say after 65 (an arbitary figure) you are no longer entitled to use the NHS as you are a burden on the use of medical staff & facilities because of cost & resources ... not worth thinking about
dont think this lot havent thought of that geordie
As far as old folks go (including my own parent), it will get to the point (probably not far off) where I'd be more worried about the lockdown killing them than the virus killing them. If they are not able to get out and about and stay active, not able to see their kids and grandkids, not able to see their friends, not able to watch sport, not able to go to a cafe/pub/restaurant, not able to go to shops - in summary, not able to do any of the things they live for and with no end in sight, then I fear the worst. At least they won't be included in the covid stats though ... 
We've had nutty professors banging on, with lunatic projections for weeks, and even now in the face of rapidly worsening reality,
are saying we are on target to hit the peak imminently!
Oh yeah....!!!
are saying we are on target to hit the peak imminently!
Oh yeah....!!!
just for starters how many nhs staff,TFL staff ,anyone on tube,would herd immunity kill surely only the old,underlining symptons has been well put to bed by now, all herd immunity forecasts were based on anyone under 60/50 fit and well wont be effected by this
The professor isn't nutty.
He has a different view to bbc1/sky and its followers/believers
Those stats are over what time period?
He has a different view to bbc1/sky and its followers/believers
Those stats are over what time period?
There could well be more than one possibly mutated strain doing the rounds.
Without restrictions it could be absolute carnage.
The economy, or what's left of it, may depend on starving the virus (or its bastard children) of oxygen, via distancing.
The so-called Spanish Flu killed 50/90 million approx because the populations didn't know what was hitting them or measures to mitigate it.
I just feel that Herd immunity is a b0ll0x approach here.
Without restrictions it could be absolute carnage.
The economy, or what's left of it, may depend on starving the virus (or its bastard children) of oxygen, via distancing.
The so-called Spanish Flu killed 50/90 million approx because the populations didn't know what was hitting them or measures to mitigate it.
I just feel that Herd immunity is a b0ll0x approach here.
They ain't over a 24 hour period, I said Monday there'd be an increase yesterday, today and tomorrow, Friday might see a small rise or drop with Saturday being another increase, Sunday being a small drop with Monday being another big drop
You can't verify deaths over a 22 hour period ffs, there's needs to be a post mortem and coroner report ??
If they are just saying "corona virus" and then marking it down as covid 19 that's absurd, its like living in la la land
But they are hiding bodies
You can't verify deaths over a 22 hour period ffs, there's needs to be a post mortem and coroner report ??
If they are just saying "corona virus" and then marking it down as covid 19 that's absurd, its like living in la la land
But they are hiding bodies
And when attempting to prolong the life of the "frail and elderly" costs the lives of the young and healthy, what then?
This article is quite interesting (and depressing) about how long vaccine based immunity can last.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/how-long-do-vaccines-last-surprising-answers-may-help-protect-people-longer
From a matter of just 10s of days for some strains of flu, to many years for other things.
And the chart it shows for flu near top isn't even a 50% barrier to catching it even when just done.
Let's just hope a vaccine if/when it comes lasts a long time, there aren't lots of mutations, and there aren't a huge amount of nutters who won't take it as they think evil lizard folk are trying to kill us all or control our minds....
I wouldn't want to price that market.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/how-long-do-vaccines-last-surprising-answers-may-help-protect-people-longer
From a matter of just 10s of days for some strains of flu, to many years for other things.
And the chart it shows for flu near top isn't even a 50% barrier to catching it even when just done.
Let's just hope a vaccine if/when it comes lasts a long time, there aren't lots of mutations, and there aren't a huge amount of nutters who won't take it as they think evil lizard folk are trying to kill us all or control our minds....
I wouldn't want to price that market.
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