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England that a Dramatic drop
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Prob about 440 when we get the other figures from around the UK
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Can't be sure but think last Sunday and Monday were low in comparison to other days. (weekend results). Fear sky high number tomorrow and relieved if not.
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yes H Thought we would be at the thousand marker by now
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2 in Scotland
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Finger crossed its at least Leveling out a bit ,we can only hope ....
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small steps in the right direction ... lets hope it continues day on day
hopefully there will be some thought towards an ease of the lockdown in a few weeks ... it give hope towards an end position providing we maintain strict safeguards with social distancing & protection of the old and vulnerable |
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I would say another 3/4 weeks as is , Really needing testing to be available
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(RIP). Hopefully no future big jumps, postive news in other countries with infection rates going down,Norway considers it almost under control.
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What was the Eire Figure LP ?? is that out yet ?
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No,about 7 usually, dare i say it,it seems as if it hasn't gone mad as such,clusters in hospitals/nursing homes the main worry.
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Yes a significant drop and interesting to see the UK death figures before the effects of the lockdown even begin to be seen.
Caution definitely advised, as you indicated over the last 3 weekends the Monday number (post weekend) has bucked the steady dialy rises trend. |
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could it be something to do with how deaths are registered or not over the weekend ?
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439 the official UK figure for today, 3,802 new positive tests, down from 5,903 yesterday.
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hopefully we will see a decline day on day now and the full result of the lockdown reduce the number of cases too.
Spain has had 4 day's on the spin of reduced deaths, which is a positive sign. |
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Yeah but as someone pointed out last week its the weekend, expect a massive increase tomorrow, I'll say 900+ tomorrow with 6000+ cases
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Wouldn't be surprised if it goes over 1000 either, absolute carnage incoming tomorrow in my opinion
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So basically the deaths that happened at the weekend wont be added until tomorrow and Wednesday, that's how the numbers get messed around with
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Latest data from Italy.
Italy has recorded 132k positive test, 93k of these remain active.  |
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Italy doesn't seem to be improving at all
And they've been locked down for over 3 weeks |
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Judging by above graphs it looks as though Italy peaked a couple of weeks ago .
Then again , graphs , statistics etc. ...............  |
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Still 700 deaths a day though that's not improvement
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Could be argued that 700 is an improvement on 900 , although I guess not if you're one of the 700 .
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Lots of talk about the virus reaching its peak, not so much talk about a definition of peak.
If you look at the Italian death rate for completed cases, it has remained reasonably consistent for some time. On 10 March, they had recorded 631 deaths and 1,004 people had recovered, death rate of 38.6%. By 20 March, this had changed to 4,032 deaths, 5,129 recovered, death rate of 44.0%. By 31 March, this was 12,428, 15,729, 44.1%. Today, 16,523, 22,837, 42.0%. They currently have 93,187 active cases. Quite scary if you apply the current death rate to that figure. From 20 March to 31 March, there was a daily average of 5,396 new cases. For the first six days of April, that has dropped to 4,459 new cases per day. |
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The peak is the maximum number of new cases on a given day.
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The less critical cases the more people can be treated sufficently
Yet we are hearing majority of us don't ever experience symptoms |
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Our peak hasn't hit yet, we'll probably hit it this weekend, it'll hover there for a bit and then steadily drop over the next 3 to 4 weeks
Italy are well passed the peak line? meaning we really should have already hit our peak but they moved the modelling data back |
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Of course, when you are testing less than 10k per day, then suddenly jump to 100k per day, it would not be unreasonable to see a sharp rise in the number of new cases.
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A study in the Lancet estimated that travel restrictions in Wuhan caused R0 to drop from 2.35 to 1.05 after just one week. (R0 being the reproductive rate.)
The R0 value needs to drop to below one to bring the outbreak under control. From The Telegraph: According to a pre-print study from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine published this week, the average number of people an individual comes into contact with each day has dropped by 73 per cent since the UK’s lockdown began. “This would be sufficient to reduce R0 from a value from 2.6 before the lockdown to 0.62 during the lockdown, indicating that physical distancing interventions are effective,” the study, which tracked over 1,300 adults and has not yet been peer reviewed, concluded. |
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Of course, when you are testing less than 10k per day, then suddenly jump to 100k per day, it would not be unreasonable to see a sharp rise in the number of new cases.
Yes. Maybe they'll keep two separate sets of figures? |
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Slowing hospital admission mind
They are going to look like total fools if they don't get to hospitalise anyone in that nightingale hospital |
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Are there figures available for hospital admissions? I guess they'll be roughly in line with the number of cases (minus those that have been privately tested and not admitted.)
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Today's Daily Conference - opened by stating just that.
The New Cases are just 'Hospital Admissions' |
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SontaranStratagem 06 Apr 20 17:32
Slowing hospital admission mind They are going to look like total fools if they don't get to hospitalise anyone in that nightingale hospital ------------ Typically CHEAP, biased, PREDICTABLE and unnecessary shot - by you Sontanstragem  Most rational people would be delighted if the Nightingale Hospital was eventually NOT NEEDED. |
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Would be great if the Nightingale didn't need one patient.
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It would,looking at Italy though once you go into hospital,you aren't getting out quickly,it is very "prolonged" there.
I think the caution with above posters with todays figures are probably right. |
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Wouldn't it make more sense to have the Nightingale full while keeping other surrounding hospitals as covid-free as possible ?
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I'm sure the medical experts have considered the best way to make use of an additional facility.
Remember, it is not a full blown hospital. |