Mar 26, 2020 -- 4:29PM, ooO{Alpha Centauri}Ooo wrote:

Thishttps://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

And that's why we should be testing so much more. Korea approach and have a less severe shutdown as a result.

Mar 26, 2020 -- 4:22PM, Ibrahima Sonko wrote:

The experts..https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

Key paragraphs.

He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.

To put this number in context, there are usually thousands of deaths from the flu each year in the U.K.

Mar 26, 2020 -- 1:36PM, Dr Crippen wrote:

Just as well they deviated from it and went with a policy which sought to reduce the spread as much as possible.The government's policy is to try to slow down the number of cases coming through in order to spread the load on the NHS. Herd immunity will happen regardless.

Yes. But their strategy under the 'herd immunity' policy was to get a larger number of people infected and hence a larger number of dead, while still trying to keep the NHS from being overwhelmed, until their modellers came back and said they'd got it wrong and that the original herd immunity policy would result in far too many hospitalisations and deaths, so they changed from the 'herd immunity' policy to one which clamped down on the spread a lot more. As I said above, the UK government initially didn't want to close down sporting events and they said they weren't worried about the spread from sporting events. This was part of their 'herd immunity' policy to encourage the spread more than other countries. In fact it was clubs who decided to call off PL games after Arteta and some players got affected, not the government.

I'm not sure there is an historic example of any country trying to achieve herd immunity by deliberately exposing its population to a disease and encouraging its spread in an uncontrolled manner. Herd immunity is achieved by giving a vaccine (a weakened and much easier to beat version of the disease) to its population in a controlled manner normally. Herd immunity by exposure to the actual disease is a bonkers policy and it hasn't been their policy for most of this time, so to achieve it now (as the Oxford study suggests) is a complete fluke. But I doubt the Oxford study.

Mar 26, 2020 -- 10:32PM, Angoose wrote:

As always, there are many versions of the truth.

None these people doing modelling for this believe they have the truth. Just probablities.