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What if half the population has it already ?

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By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 27 Mar 20 00:50
edy, goodnight and wish you well.
xxx

You should not really care about me.
By:
thegiggilo
When: 27 Mar 20 00:50
Boston 150 hospital staff infected,what could possibly go wrong..
By:
edy
When: 27 Mar 20 00:51
No no, I have a good one!

Ibrahima, you are only slightly more funny than Jack Whitehall!
By:
edy
When: 27 Mar 20 00:53
I'm disgusted with myself for that one Plain I don't want to hurt you extraordinarily like that, Ibrahima.
By:
Just Checking
When: 27 Mar 20 01:00
"Ibrahima, you are only slightly more funny than Jack Whitehall!"
These insults are getting below the belt. What next, comparing him to Michael Macintyre?

FFS Just realised he's probably technically self employed .. will he be "claiming" for lost earnings, based on the bizarre theory he's a "comedian"?
By:
edy
When: 27 Mar 20 01:02
I know, JC. As I already said, I'm disgusted with myself for posting that. It was entirely uncalled for. I'd just like to clarify that I wish to apologise and that it does not represent my true opinion.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 27 Mar 20 03:49
Boston hospital numbers shocking ...how come this wasn't on the news  ?
By:
Coachbuster
When: 27 Mar 20 04:00
I say the numbers  are around the 2  million mark and obviously rising    ...have been using a scale based on the likelihood of  an elderly unwell person catching this at the outset and scaled .

  This was always going to spread among younger people anyway ( many it appears not even showing symptoms) for a myriad of reasons  ....   more likely out and about ,mixing ,grouping , schools ,pubs ,partners  ..so on and so on ...   older people would much less likely catch this esp as many don't tend to go far on average  .

Then if you  read about cases of   people you know about and even on this forum it seems at the moment the numbers who believe they have or have had the  virus (or maybe flu ) is  around 5%   ,  many more in London . 

If it was half the population many ,many more oldies would be dead by now  .....i reckon allowing for lag  ,the death rate will be around 0.5   ....an example cited of 20,000 by the experts  would then be 4m infected in total  (Not all at same time of course)
By:
Injera
When: 27 Mar 20 08:59
The ‘normal’ death rate is often close to 0.1 %. 10 deaths per 1000 people.


Sadly this overall picture is not being presented. It’s as if death never occurs.....
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 27 Mar 20 10:56
If we all watched web-sites showing how many people were dying each day just of the flu, many would be shocked at the numbers, and would be constantly pointing out the new trends which told us that the situation was getting to breaking point in this country or that country.

Sadly, once the world starts going into a panic, governments feel compelled to act.
By:
sageform
When: 27 Mar 20 11:51
There are thousands dying every day from all sorts of things but they don't all need oxygen or ventilators and are not generally in hotspots like Covid. The more people who have had it mildly without realising the better so long as they have not spread it. The emergency will only be over when most people are immune, either having recovered or had a vaccine when one is available.
By:
Angoose
When: 27 Mar 20 12:07
How many thousands die every day?
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 27 Mar 20 12:51
Preliminary data suggests that around 90% of those put on ventilators go on to die in any case!  More ventilators won't help the majority of the truly sick.
By:
HonkyJoe
When: 27 Mar 20 12:52
I see you've answered your own question elsewhere. Angoose...
By:
Angoose
When: 27 Mar 20 12:58
Indeed, it was something that I had no idea about and wanted to get some figures for myself given the numbers been loosely thrown around on here for flu related deaths.
By:
Angoose
When: 27 Mar 20 13:01
And here is something interesting that came out of Cuomo's press briefing yesterday.

COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator: 11 - 21 days (vs. 3 - 4 days for non-COVID-19 patients).

"We have patients that have been 20 days 30 days on a ventilator. The longer you are on a ventilator, the more likely you are not going get off a ventilator".
By:
sageform
When: 27 Mar 20 14:23
you only have to think that the population is 66 million and life expectancy is around 70 (averaging all who die young from accidents with those who dies of old age) to work out roughly how many die each year.
By:
Angoose
When: 27 Mar 20 14:37
So you have no idea.Happy

By:
Coachbuster
When: 27 Mar 20 20:17
it's not so much about how many would die normally, but the potential of this virus  .


this will be a low death percentage hopefully (0.1 % maybe at a guess )only because  of the drastic measures taken .... without such measures death rates would probably be up as high as 3- 5% of the population .

think of all the ill and elderly folk behind shields for a start
By:
Coachbuster
When: 27 Mar 20 20:19
it will be interesting to see how many  eventually  tally up as contractors  ...  4 ,8 ,16 , 32 million in the UK ? who knows
By:
macarony
When: 27 Mar 20 20:25
If 70000 deaths regardless of cause then is around 1 in every 1000.
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